Article: Awkward Decisions

[USAFChief]

 

This is what I was thinking too. Mauer is starting 86% of games that he is on the active roster this year. He can be a starting 1B/DH, paired with another starting DH/1B, and if he gets hurt, he goes on the DL and you call up someone else. It doesn't really cause a roster crunch.

But to put Mauer in a backup/bench role most definitely would. That extra player couldn't just come up when Mauer was on the DL, he would have to be here all the time. Reminds me of the Kennys Vargas years -- if there wasn't a starting 1B or DH job available, he really just cluttered the roster. Fortunately we were able to send him to AAA.

In the age of 12 and 13 man staffs, carrying two 1B/DHs, who only 1B/DH, necessarily causes a roster crunch.

 

And if you try to platoon them, it only gets worse. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

If Joe wants to come back, and will accept a reasonable contract, he's back – so goes the prevailing wisdom. Conspicuously, it's not a stance that has been openly taken by Derek Falvey or Thad Levine.

 

...

 

When asked, Falvey said they're not factoring Buxton's team control into their thinking (what else are ya gonna say),

Don't you think "what else are ya gonna say" would apply to the Mauer situation too? There is really no benefit to publicly disclosing their offseason/2019 plan for Mauer right now, so I don't see the absence of any such comment as conspicuous at all.

[jtkoupal]

Joe Mauer does have a wRC+ of 116 vs LHP, which increases his value to the Twins because of their futility against lefties at times this season. That being said, Tyler Austin needs to hit against lefties too, and therefore somebody needs to hit against righties (Logan Morrison, anyone?)

 

It wouldn't 100% shock me to see the Twins bring somebody else in for first base next year. Mauer only has a wRC+ of 92 vs RHP, Austin has a wRC+ of 161 vs LHP and only 90 vs RHP. Clearly, there is a need for a bat vs RHP. I doubt it will be Logan Morrison...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I’ve heard lots of people say bring Mauer back in a “more limited role”. He’s going to play fewer than 90 games at first this year and he’s likely going to start fewer than 115 games total.

So, my awkward questions for anyone who cares to answer are

1) How much more limited would you expect his role to be in 2019 (and beyond)?

2) How much do you think that amount of playing time coupled with his subpar offensive production is worth?

3) Perhaps most importantly (and an issue no one advocating for his return has bothered to address), how do you fit essentially a half time player who plays only first base onto a roster that has 3 position players per game that don’t start?

Someone said in one of the Forsythe threads that a championship team doesn’t have Logan Forsythe on it. IMO, a championship team doesn’t have 36 year old Joe Mauer on it.

Between 1B and DH (leadoff) and some PH, I see Mauer as a 3/4 time player. That's how he has been used in recent seasons so no need to change that. I really have no problem with that. I have come around 180 degrees on Mauer since 2013-2014 when he was not hitting and struggling to learn the position (more like 90 or 120, but whatever).

 

If you insist he only be a half time player, then that works too. Mauer could be available to late PH and defense sub in more games. That has value. Mauer/Austin is the best platoon arrangement since Mauer moved to first. It's too much of a risk in my mind to confer 1B to Austin full time yet, or promote Rooker, or exercise Morrison's option and use a Morrison/Austin platoon. And we are talking one year contracts. I wouldn't fault the front office for balking at a multi-year deal request. Hope that helps.

[ashbury]

I bring Buxton up. The decision affects not just him but the perceptions of every player in the system, and those on the outside we might someday want to bring in. Good play must be rewarded, otherwise anyone with a choice in the matter will avoid the franchise. One roster decision alone won't cause that, but you don't want to start going that direction with someone high-profile.

 

I find it hard to justify Mauer for 2019. The 25-man roster has never been more restrictive to teams as regards position players, so if he needs diminishing time then it's a problem. If he's on the DL when not playing, that's one thing, since a replacement player can be added. But a "limited role" by a 1B/DH hampers the manager. A lower salary doesn't sway me at all - indeed a low salary to a veteran is a red warning flag as to his value to this or any team, except to a cellar-dweller. There's no pennant handed out for most wins per dollar.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

So what are the alternatives at first if the front office cuts ties with Mauer?

[Old Twins Cap]

If Buxton has a new batting stance, a leg-kick, or whatever he's been working on -- I don't see why you wouldn't bring him up and have him give a try against MLB-level pitching.

 

Extra year of control is just not a thing this far out on a guy who has under-performed and been injured.

 

 

[USAFChief]

 

So what are the alternatives at first if the front office cuts ties with Mauer?

I'd sign Josh Donaldson for third, and Sano is my first baseman (hopefully for the next decade).

[Otto von Ballpark]

In the age of 12 and 13 man staffs, carrying two 1B/DHs, who only 1B/DH, necessarily causes a roster crunch.

 

And if you try to platoon them, it only gets worse.

If one player starts 86% of the time when active, and the other player starts even more -- I don't see how there is a roster crunch. It is effectively the same as having a full-time 1B and a full-time DH. Having Sano as your 3B, who you also want to get starts at DH and 1B, makes it even moreso.

 

I'm not suggesting a strict platoon either, although if you rest Mauer for 14% of starts, you can certainly try to time them vs LHP.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd sign Josh Donaldson for third, and Sano is my first baseman (hopefully for the next decade).

That is a reasonable alternative to Mauer for sure, but it doesn't really change the composition or usage of our bench either. You still need a starting DH and a utility infielder, same as the Mauer plan.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'd sign Josh Donaldson for third, and Sano is my first baseman (hopefully for the next decade).

Hasnt Donaldson been hurt, with dead arm? Would Sano at 3B and Donaldson at 1B would be better than what you proposed? Don't know, just asking

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

That is a reasonable alternative to Mauer for sure, but it doesn't really change the composition or usage of our bench either. You still need a starting DH and a utility infielder, same as the Mauer plan.

Agree there must be a reasonable alternative to Mauer, but it just adds one more thing to do this offseason, for gains that are uncertain. (Think Morrison signing).

[USAFChief]

 

If one player starts 86% of the time when active, and the other player starts even more -- I don't see how there is a roster crunch. It is effectively the same as having a full-time 1B and a full-time DH. Having Sano as your 3B, who you also want to get starts at DH and 1B, makes it even moreso.

I'm not suggesting a strict platoon either, although if you rest Mauer for 14% of starts, you can certainly try to time them vs LHP.

86% is extremely misleading. 

 

Mauer has started 67 games at first base this year. 67. Another 26 at DH. Even when healthy, he gets one game per series off from first base. And I certainly don't know the chances he spends time on the DL again next year, but they're not insignificant. He'll be in his mid 30s with a history of concussions, leg problems, and back problems.

 

Keeping him around means you need someone else who can play first base, which limits the possibilies for the other two bench spots. Or means you spend a lot of time with weak position players, like ending up with Ehire Adrianza making starts at first base and the outfield. 

 

Not to mention...I'd like to see more out of 1b/DH than a .727 OPS with zero power.

 

The simple truth is, you have to make excuses for Mauer to keep him on the roster. I had too much of that in the TR days. That's how you end with with Jason Tyner at DH.

[USAFChief]

 

Hasnt Donaldson been hurt, with dead arm? Would Sano at 3B and Donaldson at 1B would be better than what you proposed? Don't know, just asking

Donaldson has been hurt, which is attractive to me in terms of reducing salary demands next year.

 

My thinking is, Sano is going to move off 3rd soon, might as well bite the bullet and get it over with.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Donaldson has been hurt, which is attractive to me in terms of reducing salary demands next year.

 

My thinking is, Sano is going to move off 3rd soon, might as well bite the bullet and get it over with.

If you can stomach the learning curve Sano would need to play first, then all the better. I don't think I can. I'd rather have Mauer hand off to Austin or Rooker after another season or two. Also, Sano is a wildcard himself.

[USAFChief]

 

If you can stomach the learning curve Sano would need to play first, then all the better. I don't think I can. I'd rather have Mauer hand off to Austin or Rooker after another season or two. Also, Sano is a wildcard himself.

If Sano can play 3rd, he can play first.

 

True about him being a wild card though. It's a card the Twins are going to play for at least another couple years, though, come what may.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Again, it can't be overstated how valuable that extra year of service time will be in 2022, when Buxton is 28 (for relevant perspective, Aaron Hicks is 28 now). Whether the front office is running out the string on his service clock, or engaging in extension negotiations, or discussing trades with another team – from any perspective, it's just really key.

 

2 things:

 

1. I think it can be overstated. That extra year of control is clearly less valuable now than at previous points in Buxton's career. (Same for Sano too, which I suspect is why they didn't try to option him earlier this year than they did.) Maybe the extra year is still valuable enough on its own, but I think we should keep that relative value in mind -- there is clearly not the same imperative to securing the extra year now as there was, say, back in Buxton's rookie year.

 

2. This was addressed in the earlier thread, but for those that missed it: seeing Buxton in September and securing the extra year are not mutually exclusive. The Twins still have a minor league option on Buxton, which they could use for ~29 days in 2019 to achieve the same thing. He'd be up before May 1st.

 

Frankly, if he is healthy, Buxton needs reps, not rest. At least when high-level reps are available, and he's about to get 4+ months of offseason rest anyway. My plan would be to play him in Minnesota after the AAA season ends, but also plan on someone else being the opening day CF in 2019 while Buxton gets some extra reps at AAA to open the season. We need to prepare for the possibility that Buxton won't be the 2019 answer in CF, just as much as we should want that extra year of control.

[Elliot]

Buxton - bring him up. He has shown that he can dominate AAA; both in the past and with this latest run. Find out if it works at the MLB level; at least in September.

 

Mauer- help him decide to retire. The 1B/DH role is too valuable to fill with Joe. They need to find out what they have with Austin, Rooker, Vargas, Raley, ... not to mention the Sano/Kepler option in that role.

[markos]

 

2 things:

1. I think it can be overstated. That extra year of control is clearly less valuable now than at previous points in Buxton's career. (Same for Sano too, which I suspect is why they didn't try to option him earlier this year than they did.) Maybe the extra year is still valuable enough on its own, but I think we should keep that relative value in mind -- there is clearly not the same imperative to securing the extra year now as there was, say, back in Buxton's rookie year.

2. This was addressed in the earlier thread, but for those that missed it: seeing Buxton in September and securing the extra year are not mutually exclusive. The Twins still have a minor league option on Buxton, which they could use for ~29 days in 2019 to achieve the same thing. He'd be up before May 1st.

Frankly, if he is healthy, Buxton needs reps, not rest. At least when high-level reps are available, and he's about to get 4+ months of offseason rest anyway. My plan would be to play him in Minnesota after the AAA season ends, but also plan on someone else being the opening day CF in 2019 while Buxton gets some extra reps at AAA to open the season. We need to prepare for the possibility that Buxton won't be the 2019 answer in CF, just as much as we should want that extra year of control.

Do you know off the top of your head if Buxton is arbitration eligible after this season regardless of whether the Twins call him up in September or not? I'm assuming that he will be Super-2 if he is not called up...

[Otto von Ballpark]

86% is extremely misleading.

 

Mauer has started 67 games at first base this year. 67. Another 26 at DH. Even when healthy, he gets one game per series off from first base. And I certainly don't know the chances he spends time on the DL again next year, but they're not insignificant. He'll be in his mid 30s with a history of concussions, leg problems, and back problems.

 

Keeping him around means you need someone else who can play first base, which limits the possibilies for the other two bench spots. Or means you spend a lot of time with weak position players, like ending up with Ehire Adrianza making starts at first base and the outfield.

 

I have tried to be very clear about the 86%, no intent to mislead. It is the number of games Mauer starts, at 1B or DH, while he is on the active roster.

 

If we are carrying another DH/1B anyway who starts the rest, which is what we did with Morrison and what we are doing now with Austin and what we could do with Sano, what does it matter how the 1B starts are divided up? You don't need a third 1B on the roster, and indeed the Twins haven't kept one (aside from wanting reps for Sano over there, which as you suggest could be a separate consideration). Adrianza didn't start at 1B this year until the front office was readying to punt (July 14) with Sano still in the minors and Morrison on the DL -- it wasn't because of Mauer. (FWIW, Mauer started that game at DH, and Garver was on the bench, as was Astudillo and Grossman. I am not sure exactly what was going on that day, but I don't think you can really fault Mauer for Adrianza starting at 1B. Belisle and Astudillo both pitched that day too, so maybe it was something in Molitor's coffee. )

 

Mauer's health time on the DL should absolutely be a factor in the decision whether to re-sign him, but it really has little to do with causing a short bench. His replacement at 1B can take his roster spot when he is on the DL. And the team can be more aggressive about putting him on the DL when he is day-to-day, if they haven't started that already.

 

Now, if you want to acquire a new starting DH who doesn't double as a 1B, that could be an issue with a Mauer pairing. But it would be just as much of an issue with a Sano pairing, as he's not starting significantly more than 86% of the games at 1B either. Likely the same for Austin.

Edited August 30, 2018 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

Do you know off the top of your head if Buxton is arbitration eligible after this season regardless of whether the Twins call him up in September or not? I'm assuming that he will be Super-2 if he is not called up...

Correct, Buxton is Super-2 regardless, since he is just shy of 3 full years. If he is called up for 13 days, he will hit 3 full years service time.

 

He'd remain in the same 3 years service time group following the 2019 season, if we option him for ~29 days next season.

[alarp33]

 

Buxton - bring him up. He has shown that he can dominate AAA; both in the past and with this latest run. Find out if it works at the MLB level; at least in September.

Mauer- help him decide to retire. The 1B/DH role is too valuable to fill with Joe. They need to find out what they have with Austin, Rooker, Vargas, Raley, ... not to mention the Sano/Kepler option in that role.

 

The 1B/DH role is too valuable so they should fill it with Vargas and Raley... hmmm can't say I understand that in the slightest. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

On Mauer: As you said, it seems pretty clear that Joe's calling the shots, so we'll see.

 

I think Joe's presence on the roster would take the Twins out of the market for any of the 1B/DH types that are going to be available. It's just really difficult to roster two of those type guys.

 

That's not a bad thing. Logan Morrison is likely the best option in that market. These are the other prominent names available.

 

Matt Adams

Lucas Duda

Nelson Cruz

Evan Gattis

Matt Holliday

 

None of those guys is perfect. Duda and Holliday seem washed up. Gattis is interesting since he also can catch (poorly) but he's logged 34 MLB innings at 1B. Matt Adams is a part-time player at this point. Nelson Cruz is interesting but he's also 38, can only DH, and is looking for a long-term deal.

 

It's not an inspiring market and Joe Mauer would seem to fit nicely in it and be a top option for the Twins, given his history with the team. You can get more pop from Adams and Gattis but the defense and OBP is significantly less.

 

That and the Twins have openings at 1B and DH and any move of Sano to one of those spots would just leave the Twins with holes at 2B and 3B. Austin plays some OF and will likely get some time at 1B/DH but the Twins are going to need someone even when Rooker comes up. Mauer is as good as anyone on that free agent market, especially for the Twins needs.

[nicksaviking]

Unless the front office is convinced that both Mauer and Molitor (or another manager, please) would put Joe on the Bench if better options emerge, you can't bring Mauer back if you're planning on competing next year.

 

It's well within reason that Sano, or Austin, or Rooker or someone else will be both a better overall player AND need to play 1B next year. If the front office knows going into this offseason that Mauer's stature is going to prevent them from replacing him, they just can't re-sign him; it would be completely irresponsible.

 

If all parties will agree to the distinct possibility of a greatly diminished role, great, re-sign him. But let La Velle know too so the news is broken to the fans long before that decision has to be made.

[ThejacKmp]

 

So what are the alternatives at first if the front office cuts ties with Mauer?

 

Not good. Lucas Duda, Matt Adams, Logan Morrison, Adrian Gonzalez, Victor Martinez, Justin Smoak etc. Some of those may be looking for multiple year deals (Smoak) and that would seem to be an issue for a Twins organization with Rooker etc. on the way up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Nelson Cruz is interesting but he's also 38, can only DH, and is looking for a long-term deal.

 

Can Cruz really expect a long term deal? I have to admit, I am intrigued by him...

[ThejacKmp]

 

What are the options for Buxton to keep seeing pitching if isn't brought up in September?  

 

I do wonder if they could keep at Fort Meyers for 13 days and then bring him to the TC. It might be too nakedly brazen but it likely is the best course for the Twins and Lord Byron.

[nicksaviking]

 

Not good. Lucas Duda, Matt Adams, Logan Morrison, Adrian Gonzalez, Victor Martinez, Justin Smoak etc. Some of those may be looking for multiple year deals (Smoak) and that would seem to be an issue for a Twins organization with Rooker etc. on the way up.

 

But there wouldn't be organizational chaos if the front office were to bench, release or trade one of them should the need arise.

[ThejacKmp]

 

If you wish to watch Mauer's career a little longer, see him move closer to Puckett on the all time Twins hit list, pretend that 90 games of his defense at 1b are actually valuable, and wax nostalgic on that 2009 season, then by all means, sign Mauer.

 

If you want to see the Twins compete at the highest levels, then it's time to move on and find a real answer who can be an asset in 2019 and beyond.

 

"He doesn't really hurt us" and "he takes good ABs" are the best anyone's come up with so far in this thread. There's your answer.

 

There aren't great internal options and there aren't better options in free agency are also pretty good answers.

 

The Twins don't have a first baseman that Mauer is blocking. Austin plays some OF, 1B and DH and isn't an everyday 1B in all likelihood. Sano will be at 3B next year even if the Twins get Escobar or someone like him back because they have a hole a 2B. You're likely looking at needing at least one 1B/DH type. I don't see a better option. If Joe wants to come back, he has value to this team. I wouldn't go more than 1 year unless that second year is a team or mutual option though.

[ThejacKmp]

 

But there wouldn't be organizational chaos if the front office were to bench, release or trade one of them should the need arise.

 

No not at all. But I'm not sure that any of those guys are an insane upgrade over Mauer. Smoak and Matt Adams are the best of the 1B-playing bunch to me and they're nice players but I'm not sure they move the needle that much. Especially if Mauer is considerably cheaper as an older vet not looking to cash in.