Article: We Are All Witnesses, Right?

[Mike Sixel]

 

There isn't 25 guys on this team that are better than him.  No matter how disappointing he is to those that want him to hit 25 Hr's per year he is still one of the best players on the team.  

 

Well, he doesn't pitch, catch, play OF or SS or 2B or 3B, so it's not a matter of being better than any of those players.......

 

It is a matter of being better than Austin or Rooker or Kepler or any FA or 1B/DH they can trade for. Or Sano if he gets time at 1B, or Garver if he does.

 

No one on this thread has asked him to hit 25 HRs to be on the roster.

[rv78]

 

I hope he comes back. He has the best average in the league with RISP. On a team full of players who lose their composure with men on second and third, Joe is the Man. We need him.

 

I really find this hard to believe. How can he have the best average in the league with RISP and still only have 39 RBI's?  Yeah 39! I mean..... evidently it doesn't happen very often or he'd have more! So, you now what they say about small sample sizes.... It's not very indicative of how he really is. 

[jimmer]

I really find this hard to believe. How can he have the best average in the league with RISP and still only have 39 RBI's? Yeah 39! I mean..... evidently it doesn't happen very often or he'd have more! So, you now what they say about small sample sizes.... It's not very indicative of how he really is.

well, he only has like 80 PA with RISP this season, but if you want bigger sample size, for his career:  2087 PA with RISP, .334 BA and .935 OPS. He has always been very good with RISP.

Edited August 24, 2018 by jimmer

[yarnivek1972]

Well, he doesn't pitch, catch, play OF or SS or 2B or 3B, so it's not a matter of being better than any of those players.......

 

It is a matter of being better than Austin or Rooker or Kepler or any FA or 1B/DH they can trade for. Or Sano if he gets time at 1B, or Garver if he does.

 

No one on this thread has asked him to hit 25 HRs to be on the roster.

Kepler has 2.7 bWAR. Even Austin has .4 in just a few weeks. Sano is in negative territory, but that’s largely defense.

 

btw, Mauer has a negative defensive bWAR for those that think his pressence helps the defense. The metrics disagree.

[jimmer]

Per Fangraphs,

 

Mauer, this year, is +1 DRS on defense, with a +2.1 UZR and +6.1 UZR/150.  

 

26 1Bs have 550 or more innings at 1B. Overall, Mauer is ranked 2nd for AL 1Bs and 3rd for MLB 1Bs. So, compared to other 1Bs, Mauer is a top notch defender. One complaint I have with Molitor, is he needs to play Mauer at 1B more.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=550&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

P.S., every 1B in MLB is negatively ranked on Fangraphs DEF overall stat.  It's a positional adjustment.  Gotta look at where they stand amongst other 1Bs, not all defenders. 

 

Kepler, on defense, is 3rd ranked RF in AL, and 4th in MLB.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=550&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Metrics kind of like both of them on D.

Edited August 24, 2018 by jimmer

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Piggybacking off the previous post, Fangraphs says Mauer is the 3rd best out of 28 first baseman for 500 innings in the field. Eyeball test agrees, and even if Mauer is slipping ever so slightly, he is still one of the best at the position across MLB.

 

Without Mauer at first base, all the other infielders drop a notch, too. I also think continuity into 2019 is an important factor with this one. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Also I haven't heard any hints that he's not coming back, so not sure where that is coming from. It would be nice to know. Ted?  

 

Indications from Joe himself (after cutting through the "gee whiz-ness" of all his comments) I am confident he wants to play another season or two, at least. 

[IndianaTwin]

 

I really find this hard to believe. How can he have the best average in the league with RISP and still only have 39 RBI's?  Yeah 39! I mean..... evidently it doesn't happen very often or he'd have more! So, you now what they say about small sample sizes.... It's not very indicative of how he really is. 

 

The rest of the team has had RISP on 24.25 percent of its at bats. Mauer has had RISP in 20.10. 

 

Also, I don't know how to easily figure out who was on base for Mauer, but with where he has been in the batting order, the vast majority of his games have come with guys like Garver, Wilson, Grossman, Lomo, and even the pitcher batting up to three batters in front of him. Specifically, in his 63 games as a lead off hitter, 47 times the No. 9 hitter has been Wilson (27), Garver (7), Adrianza (7), or a pitcher (6). When your guy on 2B is Wilson, you're not going to get as many RBIs as when your guy is Rosario.

 

Also, take into account that Mauer doesn't hit homers. The batter, by definition, isn't in scoring position. Mauer has driven in 34 base runners. For context, in more at bats for each, Dozier drove in only 36 and Kepler 29 base runners.

 

All factors in why a guy with great success with RISP may not have gobs of RBIs.  

 

 

[Danchat]

My thoughts on Mauer are mixed... he's a great OBP hitter who is constantly getting on base, but he has no speed. He's a fantastic defender, but he brings almost zero power. He's also incredibly clutch (RISP), but he's almost always going to hit singles.

 

I would be fine going either way with him. I'd be fine if they looked for an upgrade, but if they're thinking the future is Austin/Rooker/Sano?, then I could see one more year of Mauer. He's not a great player at this point, probably more of a "good" one. It sounds like Mauer wants to play next season, so I think he'll be back. I don't know if he'll be playing 1B as often as many want him to, though...

[birddog]

Once again I state that Joe was a great one and I totally respect him. But his numbers just don't warrant bringing him back for anything more than a third of his current contract. Guys comparing him here are saying he's "better than average" and "one of the best players" on a pathetic team.

 

If the front office is content with average, they accept what Joe has become, sign him for more than he is worth, and hope he can bring in some fans with his phenomenal history. If they truly want to field a competitive team, they look at every avenue to improve the team at every position. We probably don't have a better 1B than Joe right now. You may not agree with me, but my opinion is that we can make a trade or sign a free agent who will give us more production than Joe does at this stage of his career.

[Platoon]

Wonderful article. Thanks. If Mauer had played on a "coast" team his legacy and likely induction into the HOF would already be secure. Alas he didn't. And his quiet private personality, and a career long success in not drawing attention to his talent has at times almost made him seem invisible. But for years we were able to see someone play one of the most demanding defensive positions in baseball as good or better than anyone who preceded him in the history of the game. There were likely equals in certain aspects of that position, possibly a better arm? More power? Obviously not batting average. But there was no one who wrapped it all in one package, as he did when healthy. It's sad the the guardians of Jim Pohlads purse strings struggle with that fact. Lastly, while the concussions definitely affected Mauers offensive numbers for several years, his move to first cemented one indisputable fact. He wasn't simply a great catcher, he was a great baseball player. I would have enjoyed watching him move to third also. There are few players who have a set of hands like he does. That ability would have made him a fine defensive third baseman.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

While the game has changed and Mauer's brand of baseball seems to no longer align with the new analytics era, I still see a hitter who consistently takes quality at bats and a glove that is above average at first base. I have to believe that the Twins or another team would find value in what he still offers.

 

The question is what does Joe still want to accomplish and what is he willing to sacrifice to make that happen. Whether it is moving to a championship caliber team or sticking with the Twins who may be still a couple years away, he probably needs to accept a diminished role.  Is he OK with a backup role with only a couple starts a week and probably a PH appearance and/or being late inning defensive replacement most nights? 

 

If he is willing to accept that role, I am certain he will be playing Major League Baseball next year.

[Twodogs]

Well, he doesn't pitch, catch, play OF or SS or 2B or 3B, so it's not a matter of being better than any of those players.......

 

It is a matter of being better than Austin or Rooker or Kepler or any FA or 1B/DH they can trade for. Or Sano if he gets time at 1B, or Garver if he does.

 

No one on this thread has asked him to hit 25 HRs to be on the roster.

This thread? So are you telling me that people don't always talk about Joe's lack of home run power at 1B? Or is that something I just made up? Bottom line is he is one of the best 25 guys on the team. When that changes then the argument changes. As long as he is one of the best 25 it will be up to Joe when he is done, when he isn't one of the best 25 then it won't be up to him anymore.

[Twodogs]

 

I don't know how to look up a team record while a particular player played for them, but I'd be interested to see what HOF Bert Blyleven's teams record was while he played for them. Once again, someone trying to attribute a team's statistic for an individual player. A team record has a lot to do with the players that are on the team. Put Mauer on the same teams as Puckett and have him do what he's done, somehow your impression of him improves? Sheesh. Didn't people move beyond this sort of ridiculous type of correlation a long time ago?

 

And as to the second point above, Mauer "never made an effort in the off season" and "winning was never a priority" care to prove that? Or is that just unprovable speculation on your part?

 

I'm on the fence about Mauer and the HOF. If he had retired immediately after the brain injury (ala Puckett and the eye injury), he'd be in the HOF already in my opinion. He was just that good. (Plus I wouldn't have to read the above types of tripe. He decided to continue on though and that hasn't helped his HOF chances, but I'm guessing he's fine with it.)

 

Whatever decision is made, I hope he enjoys himself.

Yeah, and what was the Twins record with Tom Kelly as the manager?  Apparently winning didn't mean anything to him??.  For that matter, I'd like to see the Twins overall record while Kirby Puckett was on the team?

[Twodogs]

 

And maybe that is why the Twins record is what it is. Right now, Mauer has a .9 bWAR. Logan Forsythe has a 1.0.

It’s time.

Time for what?  So even if you don't have anyone to replace him get rid of him anyway?  You might be right that the Twins record is what it is because of a lack of talent on the team, but getting rid of one of the decent guys with no real replacement isn't probably going to make the squad any better.  Forsythe has been one of the Twins best players this month?

[ashbury]

I really find this hard to believe. How can he have the best average in the league with RISP and still only have 39 RBI's?  Yeah 39! I mean..... evidently it doesn't happen very often or he'd have more! So, you now what they say about small sample sizes.... It's not very indicative of how he really is. 

In conjunction with the other answers provided, let me offer this approach. I think I did something similar with LoMo, a while back.

 

J.D. Martinez and Khris Davis lead the majors in RBI as of this morning with 110 and 103 respectively. Let's break it down to playing time, opportunity by team mates, and home runs:

 

Martinez: 534 plate appearances

Davis: 518 PA

Mauer: 412 PA

 

So Mauer hasn't played as much, in aggregate. That's going to cut into the RBI. Next, here's how those PA break down, as to whether men are on base or not:

 

Martinez: 279 PA bases empty, 255 PA with someone on

Davis: 258 PA and 260 PA, respectively

Mauer: 256 and 156, respectively

 

So Mauer's team mates are not setting the table for him the way the other gentlemen's comrades do. Next, Mauer's less of a power hitter than them: when the bases are empty, the only way to get an RBI is with a homer, and he's a poor candidate.

 

Martinez: 313 BA, .621 SLG, 20 RBI bases empty

Davis: .247 BA, .562 SLG, 20 RBI bases empty

Mauer: .238 BA, .322 SLG, 2 RBI bases empty

 

So, with nearly equal opportunity, RBI are as expected - and you can knock Mauer for that, but you can also imply poor RBI skills about most hitters in this regard, when you compare them to league HR leaders Martinez and Davis. Finally, how do these three guys perform comparatively, bases occupied?

 

Martinez: .363 BA, .693 SLG, 35 BB, 18 HR, 90 RBI (again, 279 PA)

Davis: .271 BA, 574 SLG, 24 BB, 19 HR, 83 RBI (260 PA)

Mauer: .344 BA, .472 SLG, 26 BB, 3 HR, 37 RBI (156 PA)

 

When talking about RBI, a lot of what we think of as "driving in baserunners" is "driving oneself in with a homer". It's no accident that the leaders in HR this year lead in RBI.

 

I know there is a tendency to equate low RBI with failure of will (and I don't think that was your point here). Mauer does better with men on base than empty, as do the other two, as do the leagues in general. But mostly it's the home runs, and opportunity. Everything else (Mauer walking a little much) is close to noise, by comparison.

[yarnivek1972]

Time for what? So even if you don't have anyone to replace him get rid of him anyway? You might be right that the Twins record is what it is because of a lack of talent on the team, but getting rid of one of the decent guys with no real replacement isn't probably going to make the squad any better. Forsythe has been one of the Twins best players this month?

Austin is better. Kepler is better. Cave is better. On the presumption that Buxton is going to get every opportunity to play CF next year, 1b is covered with Kepler and Austin while Cave plays RF. Joe Mauer isn’t one of the top 3 options to play first base IMO. And that’s why it is time for him to go.

[Twodogs]

What are you basing Austin and Cave with?? I mean neither of them has exactly lit up the minor leagues and with the amount of MLB experience that they have is soooo limited most of the pitchers out there don't even hardly know who they are let alone have made adjustments to them. I mean Danny Santana looked really great over his first 200 to 300 at bats too?

 

Kepler is hitting like .235? So their hitting can't exactly be proven to be better than Mauer and neither can their defense. So how are they exactly better in 200 at bats worth of MLB production?

[yarnivek1972]

What are you basing Austin and Cave with?? I mean neither of them has exactly lit up the minor leagues and with the amount of MLB experience that they have is soooo limited most of the pitchers out there don't even hardly know who they are let alone have made adjustments to them. I mean Danny Santana looked really great over his first 200 to 300 at bats too?

 

Kepler is hitting like .235? So their hitting can't exactly be proven to be better than Mauer and neither can their defense. So how are they exactly better in 200 at bats worth of MLB production?

Kepler has 2.3 bWAR. Mauer has .9. So does Cave in less than half the at bats. Even Austin has amassed .4 in his handful of at bats. The numbers don’t lie. Mauer isn’t a productive hitter. Other than one year, he hasn’t been for 5 years.

 

It’s time.

[Platoon]

Kepler has 2.3 bWAR. Mauer has .9. So does Cave in less than half the at bats. Even Austin has amassed .4 in his handful of at bats. The numbers don’t lie. Mauer isn’t a productive hitter. Other than one year, he hasn’t been for 5 years.

It’s time.

Cave will likely spend his entire MLB career looking in a mirror every morning wishing he had half the talent Joe Mauer still does. While Austin has tons of power, he will look in his mirror and wonder how it is Mauer doesn't miss so many pitches by such a wide margin as he (Ausin) does. And, how on earth does he catch all those baseballs at first, so easily?

[yarnivek1972]

Cave will likely spend his entire MLB career looking in a mirror every morning wishing he had half the talent Joe Mauer still does. While Austin has tons of power, he will look in his mirror and wonder how it is Mauer doesn't miss so many pitches by such a wide margin as he (Ausin) does. And, how on earth does he catch all those baseballs at first, so easily?

If you are going to ignore the numbers and simply rely on your passions, there is little point continuing this debate.

 

Hey, if this was 1993 and the Twins had a 6 or 7 man bench, I’d be fine with him hanging around as a part timer for another year or two. But the reality is that the Twins haven’t had more than a 4 man bench at all this year (other than NL rules games) and it has been 3 for probably 90% of the games so far. A team that is trying to contend simply can’t afford to roster a non-productive semi-regular first baseman who plays no other position.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If you are going to ignore the numbers and simply rely on your passions, there is little point continuing this debate.

Hey, if this was 1993 and the Twins had a 6 or 7 man bench, I’d be fine with him hanging around as a part timer for another year or two. But the reality is that the Twins haven’t had more than a 4 man bench at all this year (other than NL rules games) and it has been 3 for probably 90% of the games so far. A team that is trying to contend simply can’t afford to roster a non-productive semi-regular first baseman who plays no other position.

Is it possible you are ignoring numbers yourself? Refer back to posts 65 and 66 and let us know what you think.

[USAFChief]

 

Is it possible you are ignoring numbers yourself? Refer back to posts 65 and 66 and let us know what you think.

Not addressed to me, but I'll take a shot.

 

The Fangraphs page in post 66 lists Mauer with 1 DRS, which ranks 12th among qualified first baseman.

 

The same page shows him with 2.1 UZR, which ranks 8th among qualified first baseman.

 

He does move up to 4th in UZR/150, but of course nobody pays much attention to UZR/150. Which, in Mauer's case, makes even more sense since Mauer has played 150 games in a season only once in his career, and this season is in the 60's for games started at first base.

 

Personally, I think Mauer is a very good first baseman, with my only complaint his slowness at starting double plays. He hesitates, but that's a minor, minor thing. The problems, though, are the value of defense at first base is somewhat questionable, and he doesn't play enough to make full use of the value if it indeed is there.

I

[Otto von Ballpark]

In fairness to Mauer, he hasn't been out of the lineup multiple games every week this year -- he was on the DL for 25 games. When he has been on the active roster this year, he has been starting at a 140 game full season pace. (Plus another 11 pinch hitting appearances.)

 

Obviously, he still missed those 25 games, but we were able to replace him on the roster for them. He hasn't been the cause of short benches in 2018.

[USAFChief]

 

In fairness to Mauer, he hasn't been out of the lineup multiple games every week this year -- he was on the DL for 25 games. When he has been on the active roster this year, he has been starting at a 140 game full season pace. (Plus another 11 pinch hitting appearances.)

Obviously, he still missed those 25 games, but we were able to replace him on the roster for them. He hasn't been the cause of short benches in 2018.

He isn't at first base at least twice a week.

[jimmer]

The original discussion about Mauer's defensive numbers stemmed from this quote:

 

'btw, Mauer has a negative defensive bWAR for those that think his pressence helps the defense. The metrics disagree.'

 

The Fangraphs metrics I provided earlier show that Mauer's presence at 1B DOES help the defense WHEN he's at 1B.  DRS and UZR are counting stats and, obviously, with more time out there one would figure that those numbers would go higher (though not for sure).  Problem is, he WAS on the DL AND with Molitor wanting to get other people time at 1B, it has affected Mauer's time at first.

 

So, YES, Mauer's presence on defense DOES help the defense.  There's no doubt about that.  But he has to be out there for that to happen and for the counting stats like DRS and UZR to reflect that. He's a truly talented defensive 1B, he just needs to be out there more.  It's one of my biggest issues with Molitor cause it's HIS decision who is out there, not Mauer's.

 

 

Edited August 26, 2018 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

Perhaps Mauer is frequently not playing 1B because he has an established history of getting hurt/tired if he is out in the field too often.  I don't think it's fair to lay that at anyone's feet other than Mauer.  (And even that, some of it, is out of his control too)

[jimmer]

 

Perhaps Mauer is frequently not playing 1B because he has an established history of getting hurt/tired if he is out in the field too often.  I don't think it's fair to lay that at anyone's feet other than Mauer.  (And even that, some of it, is out of his control too)

I'm sure it has an effect, Levi, and it could be a decision based on what Molitor and the FO feel is best to keep him healthy.  Absolutely sure that's a concern.

 

But the overall point is when he is out there, he DOES have a positive effect on the defense, cause he IS a quality defender.

[TheLeviathan]

Right, but I don't think it's fair to say it's "out of Mauer's hands".  It's really not.  His durability/health issues have forced people's hands.  Yes, he's a pretty good defender, but his health has taken him off of the catching position and even off 1B on a regular basis.

 

That's part of the story.  His DH usage has been a result of years of health issues, not some misguided notion by the manager about his defensive value.

[USAFChief]

 

The original discussion about Mauer's defensive numbers stemmed from this quote:

 

'btw, Mauer has a negative defensive bWAR for those that think his pressence helps the defense. The metrics disagree.'

 

 

Well, that's true, as far as it goes. -0.4 dWAR.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml