Article: Thrift Shop: 3 Sneaky Finds by the Front Office

[RatherBeGolfing]

Praising the FO for stumbling into three AAAA players? Boy, it has been a rough year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Very weird to see so much Jake Cave hate and skepticism. I would've thought everyone would have loved seeing this guy develop into what looks like could be an every day outfielder next year.

 

No hate here, but skepticism is warranted. I hope we're not betting on a .371 BABIP again...

[alarp33]

 

Very weird to see so much Jake Cave hate and skepticism. I would've thought everyone would have loved seeing this guy develop into what looks like could be an every day outfielder next year.

 

Cave has been a significant upgrade at the plate over Buxton and seems to play decent defense. He should be starting every day on this team right now, and until Buxton proves he can hit, Cave should be above Byron on the depth chart. He's ahead of Bux right now in my eyes. There I said it.

 

Remove Jake Cave, add Zach Granite and you could've wrote the same post last July. 

 

It's nice that the Twins have found what looks like a usable piece. But it's not "hate" to acknowledge the extremely small sample size and luck driven factors.  

[Tom Froemming]

Hindsight is 20/20, but I would reverse the Jake Cave trade in a heartbeat. Luis Gil is throwing 99 mph and has a 1.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 13.3 K/9 in a league where the averages are 4.83, 1.50 and 8.8, respectively.

[Vanimal46]

Hindsight is 20/20, but I would reverse the Jake Cave trade in a heartbeat. Luis Gil is throwing 99 mph and has a 1.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 13.3 K/9 in a league where the averages are 4.83, 1.50 and 8.8, respectively.

Yeah it's premature to call this trade a win for the Twins. Is Cave bringing something to the table that Wade couldn't do? Or even Granite if he wasn't injured.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't hate or love the Cave deal right now.....but I'm not sure how it's all that helpful. They have Wade, who likely could do about what Cave is doing, I think. And, they don't have Gil right now......

 

If you looked at the trade now, and someone said you could trade Cave for Gil right now, you'd do that trade every time. that might not be a good trade either, but you'd do it.

 

I like the Austin acquisition. I don't know if he's good or not, but he can crush a ball when he hits it. I'd have him at 1B every day Mauer isn't, to get him rep after rep.

 

Drake? Uh, hmmmm. I have my doubts, but he's been fine here.

[mikelink45]

I have already posted here, but ESPN has announced that the Braves are bringing in another 20 year old to start pitching for them.  The move to young players getting a chance early is exciting, and maybe it can get rid of the debacle that analytics has caused.  

 

In case you wonder what Analytics have done that I do not like - this essay from Bleacher Reports - https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fbleacherreport.com%2Farticles%2F2791455-i-find-it-very-difficult-to-watch-why-mlb-greats-think-baseballs-in-trouble%3Futm_source%3Dnewsletter%26utm_medium%3Dnewsletter%26utm_campaign%3Dmlb&data=02%7C01%7C%7C26a7aaa421e1431f9d0c08d607721406%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C636704583868910839&sdata=CipaREO8lPDAzZutfj9tNwP0%2Bqln4879Y%2BBX0TGzRdE%3D&reserved=0  says it well. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Before we pat the Twins on the back too much for claiming Drake in August, keep in mind we passed on claiming him at least twice, May 31st and June 19th, when our our season's fate was not yet determined, and we signed Matt Belisle instead.

[Nick Nelson]

 

No hate here, but skepticism is warranted. I hope we're not betting on a .371 BABIP again...

He's also a rookie getting his first taste of the major leagues. I think we're betting on luck neutralizing while other factors improve, which would be pretty standard.

 

Hindsight is 20/20, but I would reverse the Jake Cave trade in a heartbeat. Luis Gil is throwing 99 mph and has a 1.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 13.3 K/9 in a league where the averages are 4.83, 1.50 and 8.8, respectively.

With poor control, as a 20-year-old in rookie ball. He's got a big arm but you can't just hoard promising young throwers forever. 

 

 

Yeah it's premature to call this trade a win for the Twins. Is Cave bringing something to the table that Wade couldn't do? Or even Granite if he wasn't injured.

Power. Neither Granite or Wade have much to speak of, and that can hinder a player's major-league viability. Also, it's not an either/or scenario. Nothing wrong with having both Cave and Wade in the system right now.

[Thrylos]

Good pick ups.  For the 2018 Twins.  However, the question we all should be asking is whether any of the 3 would have had a place in the 25 men rosters of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros.

Because that's where the bar has to be set if the Twins were to be competitive in the post-season ever again.

 

Not at the Detroit and White Sox levels...

[Otto von Ballpark]

I get why people are keeping expectations in check with Drake but guys like that -- with monster Triple-A numbers and a stupendous MLB strikeout rate -- aren't available everywhere, despite what some of the comments above might suggest. He has a 12.4% swinging strike rate in the majors and 12.5% this year, putting him in the same range as Busenitz and Hildy.

Same range as JT Chargois too...

[Mike Sixel]

JT hurt again....hopefully it is minor....

[Nick Nelson]

 

Praising the FO for stumbling into three AAAA players? Boy, it has been a rough year.

One of the reasons these new executives were brought in was to provide a competitive edge by identifying and acquiring overlooked/underrated/inexpensive talent. This is a necessary ingredient in sustained winning for teams with finite budgets, and it was certainly a trademark of Cleveland while Falvey was there. So I'm not sure I understand why you feel the need to downplay it.

 

 

Same range as JT Chargois too...

Yes. I already said I was disappointed to see Chargois go. Do we have to dwell on his absence any time we evaluate a new reliever addition going forward? Also Chargois continues to show he can't stay healthy (which was presumably the Twins' rationale in letting him loose) so let's ease up on the sulking a bit. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yes. I already said I was disappointed to see Chargois go. Do we have to dwell on his absence any time we evaluate a new reliever addition going forward? Also Chargois continues to show he can't stay healthy (which was presumably the Twins' rationale in letting him loose) so let's ease up on the sulking a bit.

Sorry, didn't mean to sound like I was sulking. I was questioning the rarity of players fitting Drake's profile.

 

Another one could be Tonkin over 2016-2017, at least in terms of K rate in AAA/MLB. His swinging strike rate was comparable in 2017 too.

 

A few of these guys turn out interesting, like Kirby Yates or Blake Parker. (The Twins new FO passed on both of those guys last year too.) That's more of the challenge, actually getting something out of these types.

 

Bullpen seems like the easiest / quickest way to put your stamp on the MLB roster, and the new FO has performed pretty marginally in that regard so far.

[Otto von Ballpark]

One of the reasons these new executives were brought in was to provide a competitive edge by identifying and acquiring overlooked/underrated/inexpensive talent. This is a necessary ingredient in sustained winning for teams with finite budgets, and it was certainly a trademark of Cleveland while Falvey was there. So I'm not sure I understand why you feel the need to downplay it.

 

Doesn't Drake fit in the mold of Casey Fien? Or Jared Burton, or even Caleb Thielbar? Is this really an achievement specific to the new front office?

[Vanimal46]

Seriously? I usually agree with you but this comment seems way off. Just compare the stats:

 

Cave - 25 years old, .275/.313/.480 (.793), OPS+ 111. 33% SO rate, 1.0 WAR in 51 games, in the MAJORS. Also a good corner OF, decent CF. Starting OF stats in the Majors, even as a complimentary player on a good team. Could be a starter hitting 5th or 6th if he can drop the SO rate down to 20-25%.

 

Wade - 24 years old, .235/.357/.355 (.712), 21% SO rate, in AAA. Also a good corner OF, but not good enough to play CF. Has not yet shown enough to project him as a 25 man roster guy in the Majors, much less a starter. Needs at least another half year to year in the minors before there's a chance.

 

Granite - 25 years old, .237/.282/.245 (.527!!), 11% SO rate, also a good corner OF, decent to good in CF. THis year an aberation due to injury? He had a shot last year with the Twins - .237/.321/.290 (.611), 9% SO rate, looked completely overmatched at the plate. Zero power, looks like a .230-.260 banjo hitter.

 

There's lots of reason to criticize the FO this year but this choice isn't one of them. Cave is simply the better player at this point and deserves to be on the 25 man roster this year and going forward. Wade may become something in the future but not looking great so far in AAA. Granite? May be playing for someone else next year if there isn't enough space on the 40 man.

My intention in the first post wasn't to criticize the FO. I'm saying it's too early to call this a win for our Twins. Cave is good and probably has a 2-3 year tenure with the Twins.

 

The player we gave up is young and throws gas. If he figures it out at higher levels of baseball it could come back to haunt us. Or he flames out in the minors. That's all I'm saying.

 

Going forward, the Twins now have several 4th OF candidates who all hit LH. Wade requires 40 man protection this offseason, and Granite may remain on roster too. Was it worth giving up a high upside reliever that can throw 100? Time will tell.

Edited August 21, 2018 by Vanimal46

[Doomtints]

Jake Cave has been astounding, but I keep reading:

 

- He's too old (he's 25)

- He's a platoon bat only

- He'll never be a starter

- Cave only looks good to the Twins because the Twins suck

 

Fine, he strikes out too much. Rookies always do. Just curious -- if you are against Jake Cave, were you also one of the many people who railed on Rosario until this year? Or Dozier before his power surge? For the record, this was most of you!

 

Follow up question: Why do people get stars in their eyes for people like Kepler and Morrison but look down their noses at players who actually look like they can be special once they work through their rookie years?

I *want* my rookies to swing at the ball and strike out. It's a part of learning about the pitchers they face. You will never hit the ball with the bat on your shoulder all the time. Swing the damn bat, figure out what you can do against MLB pitching. If your OPS is staying over .700 as a rookie, you're doing great and you're only going to get better. If it's .793 like Cave, WOW.

 

Rookies who start out boring and methodical have careers that are largely boring and methodical. You should only be methodical after you have experience in what you're doing, especially in a competitive sport.

Edited August 21, 2018 by Doomtints

[KirbyDome89]

 

I like Cave and Austin and I'm not ready to call for the heads of Falvey and Levine yet but one of the principle jobs of the guys in the FO should be to know what the team has and looking at some of their transactions, they didn't.

 

Relief pitchers like JT Chargois (3.45 era 116 ERA+ 31ip 38k for Dodgers), Randy Rosario (2.83 era 155 ERA+, 35ip for Cubs), and Nick Burdi (recovering from TJ) would probably help the Twins and we let them all leave for nothing.

 

Starting pitchers Derek Rodriguez (6-1, 2.25 era 180 ERA+, 80ip, 2.5 WAR 12 starts for SF), Anibal Sanchez (9-4, 3.13 era 126 ERA+, 97ip, 1.7 WAR, 17 starts for Atlanta) would have looked good in our rotation or as trade bait but we let both leave for nothing.

 

Daniel Palka and Niko Goodrum are dinged a lot by dWAR but both have some power and are only 26 and yet we let them both leave for nothing.

 

And while getting Austin for Lynn is nice, it's worth remembering that Lynn cost us a draft pick and the corresponding draft pool amount. Looking at the transactions over the year (including the deadline trades), it looks like the FO sent away more talent than it brought back.

Spot on. It's important to remember why Cave, Drake, Austin, ect are on the active roster. 

 

I hated the Sanchez signing and couldn't have been happier to see him go, so I can't really get on the FO for cutting bait early on what looked like a horrible decision from the get go. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

He's also a rookie getting his first taste of the major leagues. I think we're betting on luck neutralizing while other factors improve, which would be pretty standard.

 

Young Twins players improving a problematic K rate hasn't always been "standard", unfortunately!

 

And while the power has been nice, going forward it might mean it has nowhere to go but down. Hard to look for his power to improve to neutralize other factors either (which is a more common development pattern).

 

The post I was responding to mentioned the possibility of Cave starting in 2019, and I'm not too comfortable with that at the moment, that's all. I like him as a 4th OF with options, and a fill-in starter when necessary -- if anything, I would have liked to see him much earlier this year when Buxton first went down, rather than starting LaMarre/Grossman.

 

Not sure yet about counting on Cave/Buxton to hold down a starting spot next year...

Edited August 21, 2018 by spycake

[Nick Nelson]

 

Doesn't Drake fit in the mold of Casey Fien? Or Jared Burton, or even Caleb Thielbar? Is this really an achievement specific to the new front office?

Sure, I always thought discovering quality relievers off the scrap heap was a specialty of the last front office. But unless I'm mistaken, none of those players were acquired and auditioned in-season, which is what I like about the Drake move. They're taking advantage of readily available innings to test out an intriguing player against MLB competition. So far I like what I've seen.

 

 

[Linus]

I would rather have Rosario, Chargois and Rodriguez. So far I think managing the margins of the roster has basically been a negative grade for the FO

[alarp33]

 

Jake Cave has been astounding, but I keep reading:

 

- He's too old (he's 25)

- He's a platoon bat only

- He'll never be a starter

- Cave only looks good to the Twins because the Twins suck

 

Fine, he strikes out too much. Rookies always do. Just curious -- if you are against Jake Cave, were you also one of the many people who railed on Rosario until this year? Or Dozier before his power surge? For the record, this was most of you!

 

Follow up question: Why do people get stars in their eyes for people like Kepler and Morrison but look down their noses at players who actually look like they can be special once they work through their rookie years?

I *want* my rookies to swing at the ball and strike out. It's a part of learning about the pitchers they face. You will never hit the ball with the bat on your shoulder all the time. Swing the damn bat, figure out what you can do against MLB pitching. If your OPS is staying over .700 as a rookie, you're doing great and you're only going to get better. If it's .793 like Cave, WOW.

 

Rookies who start out boring and methodical have careers that are largely boring and methodical. You should only be methodical after you have experience in what you're doing, especially in a competitive sport.

 

You are really all over the board here.  So because some people on this board were skeptical about Rosario swinging at everything and he has turned into a good player... it means that Cave will be that good?  BTW, Rosario reached the majors 2 years earlier and had a similar OPS as a rookie (in a much more substantial sample size)

 

If you swing at everything as a rookie thats great, and if your OPS is over .700 its only going to go up?  Don't tell that to Danny Santana

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fine, he strikes out too much. Rookies always do. Just curious -- if you are against Jake Cave, were you also one of the many people who railed on Rosario until this year? Or Dozier before his power surge? For the record, this was most of you!

 

Dozier never really struck out too much -- he always had reasonable K rates, even when he was struggling as a rookie, before his power surge.

 

Rosario definitely improved in that department, although he was starting from a lower point -- his 25% K rate in his first 2 years looks like a contact hitter compared to a lot of recent Twins! (Including Cave's 31%) And Rosario's K rates in the minors were good too, while Cave's have trended higher.

 

That said, I like Cave and the trade, even though I am a bit skeptical of his value going forward. (I had completely forgotten who Luis Gil was until this thread!)

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sure, I always thought discovering quality relievers off the scrap heap was a specialty of the last front office. But unless I'm mistaken, none of those players were acquired and auditioned in-season, which is what I like about the Drake move. They're taking advantage of readily available innings to test out an intriguing player against MLB competition. So far I like what I've seen.

With the size of modern bullpens, I think there are readily available innings at the start of most seasons too.

 

But in any case, Breslow (*young* Breslow ) was a midseason pickup in 2008 (and regretfully a midseason loss in 2009). I guess Neil Ramirez was a midseason attempt in 2016.

 

I endorse the Drake move, but it doesn't strike me as anything special quite yet. Would have been more encouraged if they had picked him up in late May or mid June instead of Belisle. Or maybe way back in April 2017, when the Brewers got Drake from the Orioles for cash as we kept trotting out Breslow (Old Breslow ).

[bighat]

 

Hindsight is 20/20, but I would reverse the Jake Cave trade in a heartbeat. Luis Gil is throwing 99 mph and has a 1.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 13.3 K/9 in a league where the averages are 4.83, 1.50 and 8.8, respectively.

 

He's also thrown a total of 39 innings in rookie ball. He's at least 4 years away from the majors and there are many "what ifs" between now and 2022.  Gil looks good, no doubt, but I'll save my disappointment about this trade for another day, long in the future.

[Platoon]

From Nicks Post: >>>>>>"People seem way overly worked up about Rosario. Outside of the shiny ERA he hasn't been good for the Cubs this year. Rodriguez is a great story but does anyone really think he'd have even gotten a shot here? Chargois is the loss that bums me out, but it's not a given that he's gonna have more success than Drake".............. My question is why wouldn't Rodriguez have gotten a shot here? Because our pitching staffs have been so overloaded with talent we haven't room? I am not nit picking the Rodriguez issue, but I am nitpicking the Matt Belisle type wasted roster spots. What is the difference if you send. Belisle clone out there in a 5 run game, or a Rodriguez. It can't be about Rodriguez's clock ticking, since you got rid of him anyway. That is the part about FO decisions that mKe me crazy.

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins' 2018 bullpen has the club's best league-adjusted xFIP since 2008 (and that's a tie). The last clearly superior bullpen was 2006.

 

So, the 'Falvey sucks at bullpens' notion is badly lacking in empirical support.

[caninatl04]

Kennys Vargas also hot a homer over the "batter's eye". I think it was early (May) in 2017 or '16. But I remember the broadcast.

 

Play-by-play: But he needs to show he can hit

 

<<crack>>

 

Color commentator: That will help.

[Mr. Brooks]

From Nicks Post: >>>>>>"People seem way overly worked up about Rosario. Outside of the shiny ERA he hasn't been good for the Cubs this year. Rodriguez is a great story but does anyone really think he'd have even gotten a shot here? Chargois is the loss that bums me out, but it's not a given that he's gonna have more success than Drake".............. My question is why wouldn't Rodriguez have gotten a shot here? Because our pitching staffs have been so overloaded with talent we haven't room? I am not nit picking the Rodriguez issue, but I am nitpicking the Matt Belisle type wasted roster spots. What is the difference if you send. Belisle clone out there in a 5 run game, or a Rodriguez. It can't be about Rodriguez's clock ticking, since you got rid of him anyway. That is the part about FO decisions that mKe me crazy.

Rodriguez is a starter, not a reliever.

He would have been behind Romero, Littel, Gonsalves, and Slegers before he got his shot, which means he'd maybe just be on the cusp of getting his first taste right now.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins' 2018 bullpen has the club's best league-adjusted xFIP since 2008 (and that's a tie). The last clearly superior bullpen was 2006.

 

So, the 'Falvey sucks at bullpens' notion is badly lacking in empirical support.

 

While I agree they aren't bad, shouldn't the comparison be to the league, not how bad the Twins were?

 

On that front, they do ok.....league median in WAR and other measures.

 

On the general topic.....I don't know why we have to discuss all the bad decisions, in order to discuss some good ones (or not good ones, depending on you feel about these three decisions). That seems like a tough bar to cross for every conversation.