Article: Minnesota Twins 2018 Trade Deadline Report Card

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The point of everything the organization does should be with the goal of winning a championship. To that end, it means acquiring the right players at the right time to help do that. The prospects the Twins have acquired over the last 15 years haven’t helped win anything. So, again, by what measure have the Twins “done well” with these kinds of trades?

 

I'm not sure the last 15 years matters here. We have a new FO with a new methodology for identifying talent in this type of trade. I think you need a few more years to see how it works out...

 

The one thing I can say is that most of the guys they got have some upside. I would agree that many will likely fail, that's part of the equation, but if you get enough of these guys, you're going to hit some of them. That's why you do this. I'll pick on Dozier for a second... But as a prospect, he would have fit right in with the types of guys we acquired this time around. He was never a top 100 guy. He made MNs top 10 list once for BA (#10 in 2012), and that's it...  and he's been the WAR leader for 2B for the last few years. You can strike gold with these types of guys. 

[yarnivek1972]

I'm not sure the last 15 years matters here. We have a new FO with a new methodology for identifying talent in this type of trade. I think you need a few more years to see how it works out...

 

There’s new people at the top. IMO they have retained too many of the lower level talent evaluators and development people from the previous regime. That makes the last 15 years relevant.

[Jerr]

 

While he was worth more in the Twins lineup over the last two months, I wonder if he was worth more out of the Twins clubhouse over the last two months.

 

Conjecture, of course...but I really do wonder if that dude's 'tude played into the trade.

I have been thinking the same way back when, he complained about the other club bunting against a Twins defensive shift. I think he lost his love for the Twins and couldn't wait for the season to end. Watch how he is energized in L.A. i wish him all the best, he is one of my favorite Twins.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

There’s new people at the top. IMO they have retained too many of the lower level talent evaluators and development people from the previous regime. That makes the last 15 years relevant.

 

They've retained some, fired some, replaced those that they fired, and added some more.

 

I'm not sure your logic works. There's also new methodology being adopted that has nothing to do with the scouts they are using. I think it's fair to let the new brain trust have some time before we conclude that they are just as bad at this as their predecessors.

[jtkoupal]

By your evaluation... The Twins get a 2.8 GPA (assuming all trades are of equal weight, 3 credit hours, per se)

 

 

Escobar: B = 3 * 3 Credit Hours =9

Pressly: A= 4 * 3 Credit Hours =12

Duke: C= 2 * 3 Credit Hours =6

Lynn: 4 * 3 Credit Hours =12

Dozier: 1 * 3 Credit Hours =3

 

(9+12+6+12+3) / (15 Credit Hours) = 2.8 GPA

 

[Vanimal46]

By your evaluation... The Twins get a 2.8 GPA (assuming all trades are of equal weight, 3 credit hours, per se)

 

 

Escobar: B = 3 * 3 Credit Hours =9

Pressly: A= 4 * 3 Credit Hours =12

Duke: C= 2 * 3 Credit Hours =6

Lynn: 4 * 3 Credit Hours =12

Dozier: 1 * 3 Credit Hours =3

 

(9+12+6+12+3) / (15 Credit Hours) = 2.8 GPA

How did you find my college report card? C's get degrees!

[yarnivek1972]

They've retained some, fired some, replaced those that they fired, and added some more.

 

I'm not sure your logic works. There's also new methodology being adopted that has nothing to do with the scouts they are using. I think it's fair to let the new brain trust have some time before we conclude that they are just as bad at this as their predecessors.

How much more time should the brain trust give to Matt Belisle?

 

Sorry, it is extremely difficult to not question their decision making, when this remains one of them.

[Tom Froemming]

 

So I guess the question I ask of Tom... some of your grades are pretty low. What were your expectations there? Should they have, for instance, simply kept Dozier?

 

The way I see it is that if they are giving up on 2018, which I think they did (and should have done), then it's their job to ship out pretty much everyone on a 1 year deal for value. I don't think, for instance, that Dozier was going to get much more value than that. 

 

I think the grading is really kind of all or nothing here, with the exception of Pressly, who by trading him you put 2019 at risk (unless the FO thinks he's smoke and mirrors)... Everyone else pretty much needed to go.

First off, here was the basic methodology:

 

A=Excellent, loved the trade, better than I would've guessed.

B=Very solid, liked it, a strong return.

C=Meh, it's OK, but not real impressive.

D=Substandard, should have done better.

F=Bad trade, terrible, definitely not a deal I would've made.

 

And I didn't want to fool around with +/- grades, just those five options. 

 

What were your expectations there? Should they have, for instance, simply kept Dozier?

 

I thought they should have done better in that trade, but that doesn't necessarily mean I'm saying they should have kept Dozier.

 

It's tough to answer this without more information. Did they think there was a less than 50% chance they could trade him this month? Was there no way they were going to extend him a qualifying offer? Then, no, you definitely do not keep Dozier. Would keeping him him around any longer create issues in the clubhouse? Then, no, you definitely don't keep Dozier.

 

The Twins did not save any money or add anything of particular value in my mind to the system. Raley is putting up numbers in Double A, but corner guys are a dime a dozen. Logan Morrison hit 38 home runs in the big leagues last season and could barely find a job. Devin Smeltzer is also in Double A and could develop into a lefty specialist, but the Twins landed Zack Duke for $2.15 million this offseason. 

 

I'm not saying Raley or Smeltzer are never going to make it or they don't have any value, but I am saying guys of their type of profile are not difficult to find. Every team has them, every team is willing to part with them. As far as guys currently in the Twins' system, that duo kinda reminds me of slightly better versions of Zander Wiel and Bryan Sammons. If that's the deal for Dozier, fine, but then there should be no reason you also need to take on salary relief in the form of Forsythe.

 

If the only options are Dozier leaves at the end of the season or you make this deal, of course you pull the trigger. But those shouldn't have been the only options. 

 

... it's their job to ship out pretty much everyone on a 1 year deal for value ... Everyone else pretty much needed to go ...

 

Even when you're selling, you still need to make sure you're going to get good value. I think a big problem was the minute they traded Escobar the Twins' leverage in any trade discussions decreased. I think it would have made a lot more sense to trade Dozier first, since he was the less-valued asset. Escobar was going to be a really attractive piece to a lot of teams whether or not they knew for sure the Twins were selling.

 

So again, this is my bottom line, end of the day feeling about the deadline as a whole: Not exactly Ivy League material, but in my eyes they get a solid passing grade for what was a difficult trade deadline to navigate for them.

[nicksaviking]

 

So I guess the question I ask of Tom... some of your grades are pretty low. What were your expectations there? Should they have, for instance, simply kept Dozier?

 

The way I see it is that if they are giving up on 2018, which I think they did (and should have done), then it's their job to ship out pretty much everyone on a 1 year deal for value. I don't think, for instance, that Dozier was going to get much more value than that. 

 

I think the grading is really kind of all or nothing here, with the exception of Pressly, who by trading him you put 2019 at risk (unless the FO thinks he's smoke and mirrors)... Everyone else pretty much needed to go.

 

I agree with the point as we'd be silly to think the front office didn't take the best return for these players that they thought was available to them.

 

However, without speaking for Tom, I think his idea was to grade the difference between the anticipated return and the actual return.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I thought they should have done better in that trade, but that doesn't necessarily mean I'm saying they should have kept Dozier.

 

To me, the litmus test is whether or not they COULD have done better, not as much should. I'd have liked to have seen more value there, but let's be honest, given Dozier's play, I'm not sure that was going to happen.

 

The Twins did not save any money or add anything of particular value in my mind to the system. Raley is putting up numbers in Double A, but corner guys are a dime a dozen.

I understand where you're coming from here, but I'm not sure I agree. They may be a dime a dozen, but this team is lacking them in the high minors, as well as the majors. We had only Rooker going into this year. We've added Raley and Austin. They are going to need a couple bat first guys in those spots... and had we had them this year, we probably wouldn't be selling right now. Mauer has shown increasingly less power, and Morrison was awful. It was pointed out to me in another thread that there aren't much options out there in FA either. Raley and Austin certainly have question marks, but this team really needs some guys like them.

[Vanimal46]

 

To me, the litmus test is whether or not they COULD have done better, not as much should. I'd have liked to have seen more value there, but let's be honest, given Dozier's play, I'm not sure that was going to happen.

 

 

I understand where you're coming from here, but I'm not sure I agree. They may be a dime a dozen, but this team is lacking them in the high minors, as well as the majors. We had only Rooker going into this year. We've added Raley and Austin. They are going to need a couple bat first guys in those spots... and had we had them this year, we probably wouldn't be selling right now. Mauer has shown increasingly less power, and Morrison was awful. It was pointed out to me in another thread that there aren't much options out there in FA either. Raley and Austin certainly have question marks, but this team really needs some guys like them.

Was it worth getting these guys right now at the expense of taking a drop from Dozier to Forsythe?

 

Don't we have some other guys in AA that should be up in AAA as soon as April 2019 like Rooker, Weil, etc?

[Dantes929]

 

That is nice in theory but no deal hurts us too.  Now I have a club I can't really use and nothing in return.  I still lose.  Now I don't even have a chance to get a better club I can use the next 6 years.  I'd rather have a chance then no chance or nothing. 

 

Maybe if they held out the Dodgers would have caved or maybe like the other clubs they just move on and grab something else.  They didn't need Dozier THAT bad.  They already walked away once why not do it again.

The Ddogers missed out on what were perceived as more desirable trade targets.  Forsythe was the option they went with last year instead of Dozier because he was a reasonable alternative at the time.    Since then he had a poor 2017 and has been horrible in 2018.    If Forsythe was more in the 85 OPS+ area instead of 52 I would agree with everything you say because Dozier would be just slightly more desirable at this time than the alternative for the Dodgers.    If I am the Dodgers decision maker on Tuesday I would really, really want to upgrade the worst spot in the lineup and would be dancing for joy if I got Dozier in the deal that was made.   If the other team is dancing for joy at what they gave up to get what I had I would conclude that I had gotten the worst of the deal.    I would have been fine with keeping Dozier for the next two months.   The Dodgers were not in the same spot they were the last two years and I would have been content to walk if they did not up the ante.    Its ok that you wanted to get something out of the deal and maybe the guy will be great.   I just think the Dodgers played their hand well and we did not.   

[Mr. Brooks]

I was wondering if the best prospect from LA cracks our top 30?

MLB Pipeline slotted Raley in at #19 in our system, right between Littel and Blankenhorn.

[Dman]

 

The Ddogers missed out on what were perceived as more desirable trade targets.  Forsythe was the option they went with last year instead of Dozier because he was a reasonable alternative at the time.    Since then he had a poor 2017 and has been horrible in 2018.    If Forsythe was more in the 85 OPS+ area instead of 52 I would agree with everything you say because Dozier would be just slightly more desirable at this time than the alternative for the Dodgers.    If I am the Dodgers decision maker on Tuesday I would really, really want to upgrade the worst spot in the lineup and would be dancing for joy if I got Dozier in the deal that was made.   If the other team is dancing for joy at what they gave up to get what I had I would conclude that I had gotten the worst of the deal.    I would have been fine with keeping Dozier for the next two months.   The Dodgers were not in the same spot they were the last two years and I would have been content to walk if they did not up the ante.    Its ok that you wanted to get something out of the deal and maybe the guy will be great.   I just think the Dodgers played their hand well and we did not.   

 

Sure I get that and I agree with that part.  What you are forgetting is that Dozier was not their only option, they could have still worked something out with another team.  Maybe they would have to put more in prospects and get more years of control but I doubt Dozier was their ONLY option. 

 

Even if he was their only option they could role with what they have.  I think Muncy was playing second for them and he can hit.  I am sure they have better flexibility with Dozier and he makes them a better team but again I don't think this was a do or die situation for the Dodgers.  If they could get a deal they like then sure add, if not walk away.  I just don't see how the Twins could have that much leverage. 

 

Just a theory but I think the Twins did push for greater value for Dozier but team after team walked away and grabbed different options.  I have to believe Milwaukee wanted Dozier badly.  His stats compare to Moustakas but they went with Moustakas instead even though they didn't even really need a third baseman, why?  I have to believe the Twins wanted more than they wanted to give.  There weren't many dance partners left in the end so they got what they got IMO.

 

FWIW I totally agree the Dodgers played us beautifully.  They got a fantastic deal and if the Twins had made that trade to an AL team I would be pissed.  NL I guess I don't care that much.  I hope the lottery tickets work out but I doubt they will.

 

One more thing if you had told me at the beginning of the year that Dozier would bring back less in trade than Esco I would have laughed at you.  You are right that Dozier should have returned more than he did.  The return should have been close to if not more than they got for Esco.  It just didn't work out that way so very disappointing.

Edited August 2, 2018 by Dman

[Monkeypaws]

Here's the one you've been waiting for, the Star Tribune users poll on how the Twins did.

 

As expected of Ivy Leaguers, the grading is harsh.

 

http://www.startribune.com/poll-grade-the-trades-made-by-the-twins-in-the-last-week/489668921/?showPollResults=true

[Doomtints]

 

Was it worth getting these guys right now at the expense of taking a drop from Dozier to Forsythe?

 

Yes. Whether Dozier is with the team or not, the result is the same: The Twins go on winter break after game 162.

 

Contract negotiations with Dozier will start in the offseason and Forsythe will be gone.

Edited August 2, 2018 by Doomtints

[jtkoupal]

 

How did you find my college report card? C's get degrees!

Literally my motto!

 

Last semester was the first semester in 2 years that I got all A's & B's!

[DocBauer]

Super busy with life distractions so I've been silent through most all the trades. Good news is, nobody has had to listen to my ramblings, lol, and I've had the opportunity to read a TON of mostly great, well thought out and informative posts and opinions.

 

Tom, Seth, love both you guys and respect your opinions immensely. And I have no doubt that each of you is more informed on the prospects than myself, or most all of us. BUT, IMO, FWIW, I think you are a bit too optimistic Seth, in your grades, and Tom, I think you may be a little low, at least in regard to the Dozier deal.

 

Let's be honest, the milb talent any of us really knows best is our own. And that's hard enough to grade and speculate on as is, much less provide instant grades for such a sudden influx of prospects from other systems. Still, it seems to me there is a lot to like here. Having numbers just for the sake of numbers means nothing. Theee still has to be talent and potential. Collectively, there appears to be some talent and potential here. Deepening a farm system for competition, depth, and trade options is always a good thing. But it will be a while until we really know what we got.

 

But I do have to say, why so much angst and despair over the guys acquired? There actually is some talent and potential here. Did anyone really expect us to come away with a couple 2 or 3 top 100 prospects for a collection of 2 month rentals players and 1 controllable reliever? (Gulp!)

 

I am going to disagree, Tom, on your Dozier trade the most with your "D" grade. (Like I know any better). I think you are being swayed somewhat by taking Forsythe back in the deal. The extra money is already spent, one way or another. The "little" savings to be had by not taking him back wouldn't affect the next 2 months, and would have no affect on next season. I'm not overly excited about Raley or Smeltzer, BUT, if I'm trading for prospects from someone, I'd rather be acquiring prospects from an organization reputed to draft and sign well and have a good system. The Twins, generally, lack bats at both AA and AAA this moment. Raley helps with that and offers some positional versatility. Very encouraged some reports believe good power may be an adjustment away from really good power. Smelter is LH, breathing, seems to have at least some life in his arm. Go ahead and forget about Forsythe. Concentrate on the positive. Go ahead and make this a "C" or "B" grade as you mentioned.

 

Rijo from the Yankees is an unknown to me, except for what I have recently gleaned. Austin intrigues me in the short term, at least. If i could have one, reasonable, FA signing or trade wish the next off season, it would be for a guy who could be a solid RH bat with 20HR, 30DBL power who could play a decent corner OF and 1B. Could Austin be that guy? Could he need a change of scenery and maybe be that guy?

[alarp33]

 

If Forsythe was more in the 85 OPS+ area instead of 52 I would agree with everything you say because Dozier would be just slightly more desirable at this time than the alternative for the Dodgers.    If I am the Dodgers decision maker on Tuesday I would really, really want to upgrade the worst spot in the lineup and would be dancing for joy if I got Dozier in the deal that was made.  

 

Forsythe wouldn't have had a spot in the lineup with or without Dozier. Justin Turner was just activated from the DL, they acquired Machado, Muncy can play some 2B.  Frankly it's unlikely that Dozier will have an every day spot in the lineup

[Monkeypaws]

 

 

Contract negotiations with Dozier will start in the offseason and Forsythe will be gone.

 

Dozier is gonna get a taste of real playoff baseball in the second city, home of stars. I don't believe he will be coming back, especially if he goes on one of his late season runs in one of the media capitals of the world.

[Dantes929]

 

Forsythe wouldn't have had a spot in the lineup with or without Dozier. Justin Turner was just activated from the DL, they acquired Machado, Muncy can play some 2B.  Frankly it's unlikely that Dozier will have an every day spot in the lineup

Ok, that argument sways me.   Another homer (3 run shot) and a double tonight for Dozier though.  21-5 Dodgers.    Should have traded him on an incentive basis.    OPS+ from time acquired of 90 gets us their 19th best prospect and every 5 points above that we get our pick of their next two best instead.

[Major League Ready]

 

There’s new people at the top. IMO they have retained too many of the lower level talent evaluators and development people from the previous regime. That makes the last 15 years relevant.

 

I too have thought about the scouting personnel. It's possible you have a point. However, any reasonable evaluation of proficiency, practices, and personnel requires unrestricted access access and evaluation waaaaaay beyond guilt by association. You are ignoring that the new regime made some changes to the scouting department. We could not possibly know the extent or merit of those changes but very good people asked to use poor practices and managed poorly will produce less than optimal results. You also are ignoring that the new regime reorganized the metrics dept which combined with better process & practices could help significantly improve the results of the current staff.

 

I am curious because I don't know. Maybe the scouting was not the issue. Maybe it has been development. IDK but taking a hard stance on a hunch that the problem was the people instead of the methods and management while having very little information is a very poor way to reach a conclusion.

 

 

Edited August 3, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Was it worth getting these guys right now at the expense of taking a drop from Dozier to Forsythe?

Don't we have some other guys in AA that should be up in AAA as soon as April 2019 like Rooker, Weil, etc?

 

I think Rooker is close to ready, though he's still striking out a lot, and supposedly is having issues recognizing breaking pitches. I'm not counting on him in 2019, to be honest. Weil just got bumped to AA. 

 

To answer the first question, this season was lost, so yes. My point has always been to not punt on 2019. Only Pressly hurt in that capacity. 

 

I'll be a bit curious what they do this offseason. We have a surplus of ML ready pitching in the high minors and some big needs at 2B/1B/DH. This strikes me as something we could fill pretty easily with some trades.

[Major League Ready]

Random thoughts on this thread …

 

The Dozier deal came down to the final hour. The two most likely scenarios are 1) The market did not value Dozier as much as Twins fans or 2)the F/O held out for too much and we stuck in the position of dealing with the last team needing a 2B. Looking at his stats for the year, and especially the last 2 months, I am guessing the former.

 

Maybe Dozier had become a problem in the clubhouse. The Twins made no attempt to extend him and he is playing very poorly going into FA. He was anticipating a big payday and that’s not going to happen.

 

Maybe the Twins saw something in Raley that they believe provides greater potential than others see in him or maybe they think Smeltzer will thrive in a bullpen role. Maybe it’s all they could an get for a rental of Dozier and his 700 OPS.

 

Escobar WAR = 2.5 / Dozier = 1 ----- Why is it a surprise Dozier brought less in a trade?

 

Looking at team batting for the past 2 months ….

 

Dozier is barely above 700 OPS. Robbie Grossman’s OPS is higher than Dozier

 

Why do people keep insisting we have no solution a catcher? Garver has been the Twins 2nd best hitter behind Escobar for the past 2 months. He still needs work as a receiver but that appears to be improving as well. 

 

June-July

 

 

Edited August 3, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[bighat]

Thanks for this, Tom. Really great read!

[jorgenswest]

I don’t think he hit well enough to make up for his inability to play other positions.

 

Where did the Twins miss out on the other deals for middle infielders?

 

Schoop is not a rental.

Cabrera has played SS and 3B recently (though I think poorly) and will for the Phillies.

 

Kinsler is a fit. He returned 25 and 26 year old AAA relievers.

 

There might be two arguments that the Twins missed an opportunity.

 

1) They should have traded him to the Red Sox for the relievers.

2) They should have traded him two winters ago for Jose DeLeon.

 

I really enjoyed the run last season. I am glad they kept him in 2017. I prefer their return over the relievers.

 

Time to move on. The market for Dozier was never good.

[Monkeypaws]

Holy leg kick! Get a load of this pic of Celestino from the Athletic:

More kind words for the Twins' deadline over there.

 

https://theathletic.com/457049/2018/08/02/twins-trade-deadline-prospect-haul-grades-alcala-celestino-duran/?source=dailyemail

[Major League Ready]

 

 

I'll be a bit curious what they do this offseason. We have a surplus of ML ready pitching in the high minors and some big needs at 2B/1B/DH. This strikes me as something we could fill pretty easily with some trades.

 

I am glad you brought this up because I was thinking the same thing. I would hope they keep Romero and Gonsalves given Odorizzi and Ginson are FAs after 2019. Would Slegers and/or Littell get us a 2B? I guess we could add DeJong and Enns to that list as well. Perhaps even May. Are any of these guys bringing back a 2B or would we have to part with Romero/Mejia/Gonsalves? I also thought the AAA starters might net us some Bullpen help.

 

We could also target a SS and move Polanco to 2B. We need to find away to extract value from that depth.

Edited August 3, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[bird]

 

This is sort of separate from grading the trades themselves, but I wish they would have tried something sooner -- even something small, or "addition by subtraction" -- to salvage the 2018 season, beyond (or instead of) adding Belisle.

 

Yeah, it seems like we're haunted by a "too little too late" thing at One Target Way. I miss Andy MacPhail.

[gocgo]

I like the write up, but I'd give the Dozier trade a lower grade...like a D- or an F...I hated taking Forsythe back.  I'd rather see Adrianza...or a prospect...or a fan chose randomly from the stands than a guy that we have no interest in seeing in this year or next year.