Article: Minnesota Twins 2018 Trade Deadline Report Card

[KGB]

Like grading a teams draft pick after a draft, it's fun, when you trade for prospects, you need to really look back in a couple years.  I think gunnarthor had an excellent review of the moves from last year, so we'll have to check back on these moves to see if they brought value back to the Twins.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/30858-reviewing-last-years-fo-trades/

 

But for fun, here's my reviews of the trades

 

Escobar trade is the most difficult for me.  He seemed to be the sole of the clubhouse.  I hope the FO makes getting him back as a FA one of their top priorities.

 

Pressly has potential to be an impact pitcher, but his talent was maddening.  I think this is an example of trading at maximum value.  I think it's a good move and the trade brought back good value.

 

Duke trade is really a nothing trade.  Dejong probably get's DFA at year end and Costello is going to be a good minor league player.  The real value is opening up the roster spot for this year, now let hope the FO uses it wisely.

 

Lynn is another addition by subtraction.  Austin probably get's DFA also at year end and Rijo replaces the prospect we sent the Yankee's in the Cave trade.  Opening up the starts for the rest of the year is the biggest value.

 

Dozier is a breakup the was going to happen.  I doubt any of the players will be of much value.  The only downside is if we are watching Forsythe (or Motter) play second in September.

 

 

 

 

[ashbury]

 The big problem with taking Forsythe is that he’s taking a 25 man roster spot from someone (Gordon?) that could get some MLB experience in preparation for next year.

Oh noes! Then cut him. The trade didn't provide salary relief, but we got a couple of guys, so that's the value with or without Forsythe. I'll never understand why someone's salary makes a difference on 25-man or 40-man decisions in situations like this. Sunk cost, and all that. In the past off-season, the FO office was perfectly happy to pay Dozier the $9M as part of having a shot at contention this year; the contention part didn't pan out, and the cost at this point is baked in.

[Han Joelo]

 

I really enjoyed this article. Question I have, does anyone think it is possible that Dozier asked to be traded so that he couldn't get stuck with a qualifying offer hanging over him when he entered free agency and the FO did the best they could to comply with his wishes and got back the best they could as a courtesy to Dozier and the time and performance for this team? We have seen recently what the qualifying offer does to free agents such as Moustakas last year.

They could have done him a courtesy anyway by not putting the QO on him.  Nonetheless, I have a feeling that this move was a courtesy move, for all parties involved.  Andrew Friedman probably finished the transaction with a "Thanks, Derek, I owe you one."  One what, you ask?  I don't know.  Future considerations, like a Moscow Mule or probably something trendier.

[Han Joelo]

 

 

 

Escobar trade is the most difficult for me.  He seemed to be the sole of the clubhouse.  I hope the FO makes getting him back as a FA one of their top priorities.

 

Sometimes you're the soul, and sometimes you're squashed by the sole.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Oh noes! Then cut him.

Well, yes. I think some folks are factoring into their evaluation that the Twins haven't cut him yet. Is it fair to maybe make a conditional grade?

[Tomj14]

 

I’m hoping more like two weeks. It really makes zero sense to have him get playing time when the Twins could be evaluating Austudillo at the MLB level. Maybe someone will put in a waiver claim.

Are we really talking or thinking Willians Astudillo has a future on the Twins? In the day and age of OBP the Twins are going to say hey lets give an roster spot to a 26 year old with a career MINOR league OBP of less than .300? 

[Han Joelo]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ranking-the-prospects-traded-at-the-deadline-2/

 

If you want to play "what if,' check out this article.  What if Fangraph's is right, and what if the Twins had done things different.

 

For instance, maybe they jump in earlier and get Drury instead of Austin for Lynn.

 

How did the Mets get the 8th best (Fangraphs) prospect for Cabrera?

 

Still, what if's aside, not a bad haul in Fangraph's estimation.  Duran has "arguably the best stuff of any prospect traded."  So that could be good.

[ashbury]

Well, yes. I think some folks are factoring into their evaluation that the Twins haven't cut him yet. Is it fair to maybe make a conditional grade?

Not sure. Trades and roster management are two facets of franchise management that seem nearly independent of one another. In this case there should be a plan that connects the two facets, but even if not, I think the trade can stand on its own: we got two prospects of some value that can be debated, and a major-league zero. I'm fine with ignoring the zero. If roster management turns it to a negative, that doesn't reflect on the trade itself.

[mikelink45]

I really liked this report and I tend to side more with Tom's grades than Seth's more optimistic appraisal.  Of course I think we dawdled with Dozier and that hurt, plus Rodney should have moved on too and I would have taken offers for Odorizzi.  Sometimes it is what you did not do that really affects the overall grade which I would make a C.  (One exception - moving Lynn was terrific). 

[Tom Froemming]

 

Well, yes. I think some folks are factoring into their evaluation that the Twins haven't cut him yet. Is it fair to maybe make a conditional grade?

Not me. If they cut him today that doesn't change my grade at all, they still have to pay him that money. The only thing that might change my evaluation is if they were able to deal Forsythe this month, which is highly unlikely.

 

Speaking of which, if anybody is curious about how waiver trades work, I wrote a primer for MLB Daily Dish back in 2012 that I believe is still accurate today. One of the things I've always found interesting is that any player not on the 40-man roster can still be dealt with no restrictions this month.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Keep in mind De Jong was on the 40-man roster -- Seattle likely had to cut him anyway to make room, and he's marginal enough that they didn't really care if they lost him on waivers. I think that's how we got 2 players for Duke, rather than any particular demonstration of scouting/negotiating skill.

De Jong seems to join a bottleneck of marginal pitchers on the Twins 40-man roster. If he was a waiver claim, I suspect we'd be a bit more skeptical of his usefulness than you are in this trade grade.

 

I'm fine with that. Gives the Twins two months to evaluate them on a closer level and then they can make a decision on whether or (more likely) not they want to keep him on their 40-man roster. Same thing with Tyler Austin from the Yankees. Why not give guys a tryout. Obviously the higher-upside prospects are the younger guys, ,but never know when a guy will figure something out. Will it be in two months of working with Cliburn? Doubt it, but who knows.

 

I've always thought the Twins should be more willing to do things and be creative at the back of the 40-man roster. If they need space, they can DFA him too. My assumption is he won't pitch for the Twins and will be DFAd in September or October. But they also got another piece for a lefty reliever who will be a free agent at seasons end. 

[Tom Froemming]

 

Fangraphs has an ever so slightly different view of Alcala....

 

Their overall rankings for the Twins' minors are here (and include the new players)...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=&type=&pos=&team=min

 

Overall, I like that the FO traded off guys that have expiring deals, and have plenty of depth to deal for a veteran or two next off season (or in August). 

I'm not a big fan of their rankings, some of those are real eyebrow raisers. I love Blankenhorn, but him over Rooker? Sands, Rijo, Moya and Seltzer over Thorpe? Anyway, they must be certain Alcala ends up in the bullpen.

 

The new MLB Pipeline org rankings have Alcala 11th, Celestino 14th, Maciel 17th, Raley 19th and Duran 23rd. So everybody's got these guys sorted out a little differently.

[Vanimal46]

I can see why the Dozier deal isn't thought of much, but we're talking about trading a slightly above replacement value 2B with 2 months of control. The Twins weren't getting big offers for him when he was playing well, but now that he's struggling, his price is even lower.

The problem is the return is worse than keeping Dozier. They swapped Dozier for a worse 2B making the same money on a rental deal, and 2 players that aren't special and probably won't factor into any plans for Minnesota.

 

The other trades you can squint and see what Falvine was trying to accomplish. This trade is a head scratcher.

[goulik]

Not me. If they cut him today that doesn't change my grade at all, they still have to pay him that money. The only thing that might change my evaluation is if they were able to deal Forsythe this month, which is highly unlikely.

On the first part I disagree. If we were financially strapped because of that money yes but as is, no that money does not factor into how I would grade it.

 

Second sentence, that is part of why he degrades the value of the trade to me. They won't just cut him right away. They will look for value in either flipping him or hoping he returns to pre dodger form. If they do flip him, fine, improve the grade to a C but I'm afraid we're stuck with him for the remainder of the year while they evaluate value in him or look for trade. (Hopefully he's already running through the waiver wire)

[Dantes929]

 

The problem is the return is worse than keeping Dozier. They swapped Dozier for a worse 2B making the same money on a rental deal, and 2 players that aren't special and probably won't factor into any plans for Minnesota.

The other trades you can squint and see what Falvine was trying to accomplish. This trade is a head scratcher.

Kind of what I have been saying all along.   Its not that Dozier had a huge value to us but the Dodgers were stuck with OPS+ of 53 with Forsythe.    I just have a hard time believing the Dodgers wouldn't have given up more if the Twins hadn't blinked.  IMO they needed Dozier.   In the broadcast last night the Dodger announcers kept referring to Dozier as an all star gold glover.   In one game he may have given them more value than what they gave up.    They had him batting 5th.  They had Forsythe batting 8th in front of the pitcher.    Tells you what they think of the two respectively and I just have to believe they would  have parted with more for that kind of upgrade at their only glaring weakness.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The problem is the return is worse than keeping Dozier. They swapped Dozier for a worse 2B making the same money on a rental deal, and 2 players that aren't special and probably won't factor into any plans for Minnesota.

The other trades you can squint and see what Falvine was trying to accomplish. This trade is a head scratcher.

 

I'mm 100% convinced this is a clubhouse trade.

[olivia11]

These trades give me a lot of confidence in the Front Office moving forward. The Pressly trade is the first time in my Twins fandom that I can remember them trading high on a player.

 

Plus, it just made too much sense. Pressly lead MLB in appearances which could very well increase his injury risk and also, if it continues, increase his chances of having diminished stuff in the next couple seasons. The Twins also have several relievers in AAA that could, by this time next year, be thriving in the bullpen: Nick Anderson, Luke Bard, Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, Jake Reed, Kohl Stewart, Gabriel Moya (now in MLB). Not all of these guys will stick, of course, but now the Twins can use Pressly's innings (and Duke's, and soon maybe Rodney's and Belisle's) to try them out. 

 

Their timing on the Eduardo Escobar trade (considering how fast middle infielders moved later) also seemed brilliant.

 

The Dozier trade was really the only disappointment as I was hoping for a little more. While they might have gotten a little more if they traded him earlier, I don't think it would have been substantially different. Dozier majorly underperformed this year and I wouldn't be surprised if, given some of his comments this year, his leadership skills were starting to be questioned. Also, Aaron Gleeman tweets his historically-bad "late and close" numbers all the time, something other teams have to be all to aware of. So overall, I think brining back a couple prospects and not having the qualifying offer on the table is a plus.

 

One other thought. Kind of seems like the Luis Rijo acquisition replaces Luis Gil (traded to NYY for Jake Cave). I'm not going to pretend to know anything about Rookie ball prospects, but based on what people (like Seth) are saying, Rijo seems to have just as much if not more upside. If we think of the trade as Lynn and Gil and $ for Cave, Austin, and Rijo, I think it is even more impressive. 

 

Overall grade: A

[T_J]

I think the many locals have been overvaluing Mr. Dozier for a long time. I believe they got the very best they could've gotten. At his peak his offers were not good. 

 

Getting Forsythe back... Someone has to play 2nd I guess. Nothing wrong with having another longtime player in the locker room that has seen and played in the biggest of games. 

 

For those that think they should call up Gordon: Wake up!!! He isn't ready. It appears he isn't even ready for AAA. If he is called up he is getting moved in the wrong direction. 

 

I would rather see if Rosario remembers how to play the infield before calling up Gordon. 

[Mike Sixel]

over value Dozier?

 

2nd most WAR at 2B over the last three years.....

 

No one here has called him the best 2B in the game.....

 

Frankly, I'm baffled that teams didn't want him more than they did last year. There must be a reason, other than on field performance. He was a better 2B, 1B, DH than most teams had....

[alarp33]

 

The problem is the return is worse than keeping Dozier. They swapped Dozier for a worse 2B making the same money on a rental deal, and 2 players that aren't special and probably won't factor into any plans for Minnesota.

The other trades you can squint and see what Falvine was trying to accomplish. This trade is a head scratcher.

 

You are assuming in your analysis that the 2 players WONT factor into any plans for MN. I do not think that is a given. They aren't high end prospects, but there's a chance Raley can be useful

[yarnivek1972]

Are we really talking or thinking Willians Astudillo has a future on the Twins? In the day and age of OBP the Twins are going to say hey lets give an roster spot to a 26 year old with a career MINOR league OBP of less than .300?

As a regular, probably not. Possibly as a reserve. That’s why I want to see him play. Can he field adequately everywhere? Anywhere? Can he hit enough to not be an automatic out? Those are questions that I feel need to be answered. At the MLB level. There’s no reason not to. We already know what Forsythe and Motter can do at the MLB level.

[Dantes929]

 

over value Dozier?

 

2nd most WAR at 2B over the last three years.....

 

No one here has called him the best 2B in the game.....

 

Frankly, I'm baffled that teams didn't want him more than they did last year. There must be a reason, other than on field performance. He was a better 2B, 1B, DH than most teams had....

Yeah, Dozier's ok but he's no   Punto, Nishioka or  Lombardozzi.

[Dman]

 

Kind of what I have been saying all along.   Its not that Dozier had a huge value to us but the Dodgers were stuck with OPS+ of 53 with Forsythe.    I just have a hard time believing the Dodgers wouldn't have given up more if the Twins hadn't blinked.  IMO they needed Dozier.   In the broadcast last night the Dodger announcers kept referring to Dozier as an all star gold glover.   In one game he may have given them more value than what they gave up.    They had him batting 5th.  They had Forsythe batting 8th in front of the pitcher.    Tells you what they think of the two respectively and I just have to believe they would  have parted with more for that kind of upgrade at their only glaring weakness.

 

But the way Dozier played down the stretch the Twins lost all leverage.  The Brewers, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Indians, Rockies, Mariners, all could have had him and they either didn't offer anything for him or went with players they apparently thought were better.

 

The Dodgers got a deal no doubt about it and they have a good plan for how to maximize Doziers strengths but what were we gonna do with another two months of Dozier?  They obviously didn't want to do the QO or they would have kept him.  They took what they could get.  Makes sense to me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

These trades give me a lot of confidence in the Front Office moving forward.

This is sort of separate from grading the trades themselves, but I wish they would have tried something sooner -- even something small, or "addition by subtraction" -- to salvage the 2018 season, beyond (or instead of) adding Belisle.

[gil4]

 

If even 2 of these guys become the next Eddie Escobar, not a single person on this board is going to be sad about passing up on an 8% chance to get stomped by Houston.

I was about to write that with the limited return we got for Dozier, I would have kept him for two months and hoped for a miracle - Dozier goes on a tear, Sano turns back into an all-star, Polanco gets back to where he was before the suspension, the duct tape holds in the bullpen, Buxton gets healthy starts hitting. 

 

With all the disappointment this season, it's easy to forget there was a lot to like about the lineup at the end of last year.   I'd be happy to get stomped again in the playoffs this year. 

[Vanimal46]

You are assuming in your analysis that the 2 players WONT factor into any plans for MN. I do not think that is a given. They aren't high end prospects, but there's a chance Raley can be useful

Possible I guess. Not likely. They sound like players a team can pick up at any point in the off-season. Nothing worth taking an obvious down grade from Dozier to Forsythe.

[alarp33]

 

Possible I guess. Not likely. They sound like players a team can pick up at any point in the off-season. Nothing worth taking an obvious down grade from Dozier to Forsythe.

 

Again, none of us here as far as I know are professional scouts. They may have chosen those guys for a specific reason. Downgrade from Dozier to Forsythe is for 2 months in a season they aren't going to make the playoffs. Dozier obviously didn't garner a ton of interest, but if one of these prospects turns out who cares about that downgrade (even if they don't turn out, who cares?)

[nicksaviking]

 

Baseball America published a fun list today. They ranked all the prospects dealt at the deadline, and the order they had the new guys in made a lot of sense to me.
 

-Jorge Alcala

-Gilberto Celestino

-Jhoan Duran

-Luke Raley

-Chase De Jong

-Luis Rijo

-Devin Smeltzer

-Gabriel Maciel

-Ryan Costello

-Ernie De La Trinidad

 

 

Geez, and here I was thinking De La Trinidad was one of my five favorites from this group! 

 

Those guys who walk as much as they strikeout always seem to get shot at the big leagues. His draft position sure isn't going to help him in the eyes of evaluators though.

[Dman]

 

Again, none of us here as far as I know are professional scouts. They may have chosen those guys for a specific reason. Downgrade from Dozier to Forsythe is for 2 months in a season they aren't going to make the playoffs. Dozier obviously didn't garner a ton of interest, but if one of these prospects turns out who cares about that downgrade (even if they don't turn out, who cares?)

 

Yep even if the prospects don't turn out then the result is the same as keeping Dozier for two months. 

 

I guess I don't understand why so many people are down on Raley.  His numbers aren't all that different from Rookers.  Rooker has a ton more doubles but that is about the only difference.  They both have 800 OPS's.  Raley is ranked 19 on MLB's site for our system so he is a top 30 prospect. Defensively it looks like he can handle both Corners and even play center field in a pinch so he is an athletic and versatile player.

 

Maybe the Twins wanted Rooker insurance and got Raley who knows.  I am just happy they got something.

[Doomtints]

The return on the Dozier trade is disappointing, but getting a couple of prospects in a situation where you otherwise would have gotten nothing is good.

 

Otherwise I agree, these were good trades. If It were me, I would never let a guy like Pressly go except in his contract year, but I understand what they were thinking.

 

Terry Ryan stuck to an ideal of never signing free agents, only feed the minors. But look here, the new crew signed free agents and flipped them later to feed the minors. When did Terry Ryan ever add 10-11 prospects in one week?