Article: Deadline Deal: Twins Trade Brian Dozier to Dodgers

[ThejacKmp]

 

Dozier was, by far, NOT the reason the Twins have lagged behind. Try Sano, Buxton, Lynn (especially early), Santana's absense, continual failures of middle relievers and Morrison. They are the real reasons we are not in contention. Dozier was hot early but his numbers are only a little bit short of his lifetime averages.

 

Brian Dozier is on any top 5 lists of problems the Twins had this year. Likely #3 after Buxton and Sano. He's put up a 91 OPS+ while taking the second most at-bats for the Twins this year. He's been pretty awful. Not sure how you think his .708 OPS is only "a little bit short" of his career .772. Especially when you compare it to a more recent sample of his past two years, when it was .871. Dozier was godawful this year. Godawful.

 

Morrison and Lynn and the bullpen were bad too but Dozier was a guy you depended on. The others were icing on the cake.

[ThejacKmp]

 

My doctor (a Yankees fan) also thinks I'm delusional for rooting for the Twins. I think Machado wants to play short but we probably won't spend THAT kind of money. We'll see (and I'll keep rooting for the Twins).

 

Oh I don't think the Twins will sign Machado (and don't think they should really, he's going to get an amount of money that would leave the Twins utterly devastated if he shattered a leg or something). But a market that has Machado, Moose and other guys I'm not even thinking of will make guys like Escobar cheaper. It's not a good year to be shopping for a 1B type (a reason I think Mauer will be back if he wants to, albeit on a 1-year deal) but it's not the worst 3B market.*

 

* I don't know who needs a 3B either. I'm not very smart.

 

[alarp33]

 

Dozier was hot early but his numbers are only a little bit short of his lifetime averages.

 

Dozier had an 87 wRC+ thru June. His win probability added was worst on the team. He was supposed to be the best player on the team

[ThejacKmp]

Okay looked it up. Josh Donaldson will be on the market, Marwin Gonzalez, Moose, Mchado, Jung-Ho Kang, Luis Valbuena, and maybe Adrian Beltre. I don't know who needs a 3B but that's a pretty deep pool with Escobar. Perhaps the Twins can bring him back on a reasonable deal. He'd be a nice 2B/3B security blanket.

[yarnivek1972]

Dozier had an 87 wRC+ thru June. His win probability added was worst on the team. He was supposed to be the best player on the team

According to whom?

 

I would say that was “supposed” to be Sano or Buxton.

[alarp33]

 

According to whom?

I would say that was “supposed” to be Sano or Buxton.

 

Umm, pretty much everyone? That's usually what happens when you are considered in your prime and hit

 

.269/.349/.522 with 76 home runs and a 128 wRC+ the 2 seasons that proceed this.. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

My take on the trades. I would not have traded Escobar who was valuable for the many positions he plays and as a decent hitter. I would have signed him for 2 years if they even made an offer. The others were expendable, though Lynn also could have been made an offer. He missed Spring training and thus was bad in the first month but decent after that (except for a recent slump that they all go through). It would not surprise me to see him do much better- especially next year. Dozier was really expendable because, even though he hits a lot of home runs, he is making too much money. I never really liked Duke but he was effective after a slow start. It seems we got a few possible decent hitters and one pitcher who could make an impact down the road. As with all trades, we won't know until a year or two. Our minor leagues are not doing well overall and do not seem to be able to give us anyone for next year at this time. Just my take. 

 

they had discussions with Escobar, they didn't finalize a deal. At some point, you trade him in a lost season, imo.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

Well, just since 2013, they have won 5 consecutive NL West Division titles (winning 92, 94, 92, 91, and 104 regular season games - and they won 3 more Division titles in the aughts and two NLDS plus a wild card ticket to an NLDS), 3 NLDS, and 1 NLCS, and were pretty damn close to winning the World Series last year, only losing 4 games to 3. You can't get much closer than that. I wouldn't call that not winning anything. And they are gearing up for a playoff run this year, with some great moves at the deadline. Those aren't alternate facts, but history.

 

I would take that run for the Twins in the next five years (6 counting this TBD year) in a heartbeat. Hell, I would even take winning one post season series for a start. Even one. Just one.

 

Wow, you certainly took my comment seriously. Alrighty then.

[bird]

 

Regarding being "in" it, Cleveland does not impress me, so anything is possible. But you also have to factor in the bigger picture. They had zero chance of advancing against NYY/Bos/Hou if they did make it. Zero. That's not normally the case in MLB play-offs, but it would have been this year.

 

Also, I'm not sure how much they actually hurt themselves. Escobar was replaced by Sano. Lynn by Santana. Pressly by May. Duke by Moya. Dozier is the only spot that really stings. If they somehow end up finishing within 4 games of Cleveland, we can wonder what might have been. But we didn't just make ourselves 10 games worse.

 

I submit the trade they should not have made is Escobar. He would have likely improved the production at 2B, with Sano/Adrianza at 3B not a terrible fall-off perhaps. Escobar is uniquely valuable to a team. The others are not, and they all had a short shelf life too.

[gocgo]

 

I think you're looking for a reason to be mad at him and grasping at straws. He got out in front of it and was honest in my opinion. I'm not sure why you need him to come out and say the exact words "were packing it in this season", weren't the 5 trades enough?  I found him to be fairly candid and enjoyed hearing about some of the prospects. 

Mad at him?  No.  I get it that he has a tough job to do and it can be rough to let guys go that the fans favor, but I felt that he's trying to sell both sides.  We unloaded assets that were going to expire at the end of the year and got back prospects in return...that's reality.  For him to then say that he expects a competitive team on the field isn't reality.  If you expect a competitive team on the field now, then that means you had a more competitive team on the field before you unloaded the assets.  If that were the case, why unload those assets?  The truth is that we didn't put a competitive team on the field, but we hope to in the near future.

Edited August 1, 2018 by gocgo

[alarp33]

 

Mad at him?  No.  I get it that he has a tough job to do and it can be rough to let guys go that the fans favor, but I felt that he's trying to sell both sides.  We unloaded assets that were going to expire at the end of the year and got back prospects in return...that's reality.  For him to then say that he expects a competitive team on the field isn't reality. 

 

Again, you are grasping at straws big time. He's not going to go on FSN and say "we're going to be terrible in August and September"

[Doomtints]

When the dust has settled, this will go down as the most productive midseason in Twins history.

 

11 players for people who were (mostly) leaving anyway? This is what GMs are paid to do. The Twins really only gave up one asset that they might turn out to have been a bad idea (Pressly), and that's only because they could have had him another year.

 

In a couple of years, when the Twins are finally good enough to win a playoff game, this midseason will be brought up as a reason.

 

I am confident that Falvey/Levine will continue supplementing during the offseason with FA pickups and maybe more trades. And if the Twins are still stumbling, they'll dump them off for prospects at the right time. Smart.

Edited August 1, 2018 by Doomtints

[bird]

If someone offered up modest odds, I'd place a bet that the Twins have a higher winning percentage over the remainder of the year than they have posted do-date. I'll throw in the subtraction of Morrison and Rodney too.

 

Something tells me that Sano is going to come around and make Escobar's absence a little less painful, and that the alternatives to Dozier are pretty much a wash. Mejia over Lynn works for me too. I can imagine Mejia kind of coming in to his own here. And if Molitor doesn't mismanage things too badly, the loss of Pressly and Duke may not be that big of a deal either.

[gocgo]

 

Again, you are grasping at straws big time. He's not going to go on FSN and say "we're going to be terrible in August and September"

Who's grasping at straws?  I never said that he should say that nor would I expect it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If someone offered up modest odds, I'd place a bet that the Twins have a higher winning percentage over the remainder of the year than they have posted do-date.

Well, that's just regression to the mean. Fangraphs still projects them to have a better record the rest of the way, and it's not even close (.513 rest of season win percentage, vs. .462 today). Nobody's really disputing that, are they? That's a very different question than putting our best team on the field to challenge Cleveland.

[yarnivek1972]

.513 the rest of the way still leaves them sub .500. That’s as much math as I am willing to do.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

11 players for people who were (mostly) leaving anyway? This is what GMs are paid to do.

I'm not quite so sure. How many other GMs have acquired 11 prospects in one week in July? There's an argument they went beyond normal GM talent procurement protocol, and took a brute force approach to adding quantity here, for questionable benefit (considering the depth our system already had). Maybe it didn't cost much either, but it's far too early to say this was unqualified success.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I submit the trade they should not have made is Escobar. He would have likely improved the production at 2B, with Sano/Adrianza at 3B not a terrible fall-off perhaps. Escobar is uniquely valuable to a team. The others are not, and they all had a short shelf life too.

This is fair.

 

In fact, I wondered in another post whether they let the season stagnate too long. If they were thinking "addition by subtraction", they probably could have moved on from a couple other players earlier, and given Escobar and the rest a better chance to get back in the race before the deadline.

[Shaitan]

 

I'm not quite so sure. How many other GMs have acquired 11 prospects in one week in July? There's an argument they went beyond normal GM talent procurement protocol, and took a brute force approach to adding quantity here, for questionable benefit (considering the depth our system already had). Maybe it didn't cost much either, but it's far too early to say this was unqualified success.

 

Or they just had more 1 year ior expiring contracts than normal.

[mlhouse]

 

When was the last time the Twins traded 5 players at the deadline before this season?

 

The answer is never.

 

Never say never.

 

And your point is what?  That the Twins have not been sellers at the deadline?   Please. 

Even when the Twins had a decent lineup, one good enough to win divisional titles in the weakest division anyways, the Twins ownership was unwilling to spend the money to fill the roster weaknesses that prevented the team from being true competitors.  Ten to fifteen million dollars more in payroll could have meant the difference between getting swept in the first round of the playoffs every time versus having the roster that had a chance to go all the way.  

 

 

I get that everyone thinks that the Twins ownership will suddenly become these big spenders that are willing to put the money out there to become true competitors, but they are not. And never will be.  

[mlhouse]

 

They did trade two guys for Kevin Jepsen in 2015.

]

 

 

MAJOR!!!!!   

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

MAJOR!!!!!   

Well, they haven't really traded for many guys at all. That might have been the issue, rather than not trading multiple prospects for major pieces.

[mlhouse]

 

Well, they haven't really traded for many guys at all. That might have been the issue, rather than not trading multiple prospects for major pieces.

 

And the reason they do not trade for many guys at all is that they simply will not spend the money.

[USAFChief]

The pessimism of TD is astounding. A week ago everyone wanted to blow it up.

Not everyone.

[ashbury]

A week ago everyone wanted to blow it up. Now they're mad it's blown up and call it a rebuild.

Is there any chance this is different people saying different things at different times?

 

It's difficult enough to get "everyone" to agree on the spelling of Aaron Slegers's last name, much less how to run the team.

 

/ edit - Chief ninja'd me slightly with a different focus.

[USAFChief]

Is there any chance this is different people saying different things at different times?

 

It's difficult enough to get "everyone" to agree on the spelling of Aaron Slegers's last name, much less how to run the team.

*Slegers’

[Vanimal46]

Could have sworn it was Slaygers... Please advise.

[ashbury]

*Slegers’

You mightn't like how I pluralize the Ashbury clan name either.

[twinsnorth49]

You do realize we made the playoffs last year because we did keep Dozier? Let's say Santana isn't hurt and kept the early lead ... we are talking about even potentially moving on in place of a team that went to game 7 of the ALCS against the team that won the World Series.

 

I'm not against trading Dozier this year. Personally I would have liked to offer him the one year contract and if he takes it ... so be it or I do like the top 100 draft choice over two AA players that will have to be kept on the 40 man rather soon. Yet, I can understand that we can have differing opinions on the return and hope our "lottery tickets" play out.

 

The Dodgers had significant issues about staying above the luxury tax threshold this year and resetting their "penalty" for being a repeat abuser. We needed to take back Logan (or include money to offset the salary).

 

Just don't say we needed to trade Dozier at last trade deadline. That would have be weird to me in hindsight.

Yes I do realize that, thanks. Short term gain, they made the playoffs but I don't believe Santana or not this team was going to be close to pushing the Yankees anywhere. They had a good run but were a pretender by most measures.

 

Like I said, I get why they didn't do it.

[Doomtints]

 

I'm not quite so sure. How many other GMs have acquired 11 prospects in one week in July? There's an argument they went beyond normal GM talent procurement protocol, and took a brute force approach to adding quantity here, for questionable benefit (considering the depth our system already had). Maybe it didn't cost much either, but it's far too early to say this was unqualified success.

 

True, but if the Twins make the playoffs anytime soon, history will be written this way anyway.