Article: Dear Twins: Don't Sell!

[Monkeypaws]

You start the season with a group of players, and they determine where you end up - sorry, but this particular group just isn't up to snuff. Losing Buxton, Sano, Castro, Polanco,and Santana was just too big a hole to dig out of. Keeping Pressly and Eduardo was never going to change that. 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

A coin flip is 50/50. We are not remotely a coin flip.

 

Not remotely? The spread of winning percentages in baseball isn't that great, most games are coin flips. At the time of the Escobar trade, our winning percentage was .475 and Fangraphs projected us to be .518 for the rest of the season.

 

As you reduce the games and teams remaining, coin flip odds become more useful, as they can show how much of our destiny we control. It wasn't a lot, but was comparable to Pittsburgh, San Fran, and St. Louis, none of whom have sold yet like the Twins (St Louis has made trades, but more reorganizing/reloading).

[USAFChief]

Well, it's also possibly $2 or $3. Just to keep things fair in that analysis.

 

It's also worth noting that, in this scenario, eventually your $1 will turn into $0 all on it's own.

of course it will, just like all money that is spent. You do get the benefit of what you buy with it, though, which in this case is 1.4 years of Gibson on the mound.

[TheLeviathan]

 

of course it will, just like all money that is spent. You do get the benefit of what you buy with it, though, which in this case is 1.4 years of Gibson on the mound.

 

Totally fair also.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Is the goal to make the playoffs in a weak division or is it to construct a great team? It seems many of you are want to waste an opportunity to get better for a small chance to get into a playoff series where we would be the considerably weaker team no matter which of the opponents we draw. That is an incredibly misguided unless your goal is to stay mediocre or in our case not even mediocre.

I asked you this before and didn't get an answer: what are the odds that the specific 5 players we acquired contribute meaningfully to a "great" Twins team in the future? I would guess those odds are not much different than the 9.1% chance of winning the division that Fangraphs' "season to date" projection mode gave us before the Escobar trade. (To say nothing of our destiny control.)

 

To turn your phrase around: it seems many of you are dramatically overrating the success rate of mid-tier prospects, and the precision with which teams can use them to build to future greatness.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I am in complete agreement with the original post. I want to see a six month pennant race in 2019.

 

Escobar was a free agent.  Is Pressley the difference between contending and not contending in 2019?

 

You don't think that seems a bit silly?

 

We all want to see a pennant race, but we are sitting here on July 29th 8 games under .500.  We haven't been .500 since April 22nd.  Some of these complaints are really misguided - they come off as frustration with a lost season being leveled indiscriminately.  The FO is making the right call, it's time to accept that.  Or at least try and be a bit more fair-minded about your criticisms.  

[ND-Fan]

I am loosing any faith I had in MN Twins front office and ownership now I don't see any plan on how were going to win next year or year after this. Basically were blowing this organization up to rebuild again after basically 6 disaster season and one marginal season where this group of players started to learn how to win. So we have season not expected for the talent assembled and now were trading away large portion of the pieces to restock supposedly very good farm system. This all sounds good where we have this great farm system but now we have traded away bulk of experienced talent that have learned to play and be successful in MLB. All we have left  is one highly regarded young pitcher, Two promising outfielders, and respectable short stop. Then we have two players who were thought to be next future MLB All stars and so far they look like they could be both a bust. The one has right attitude works hard but looks like he prone to be DL a lot and he may never be able to hit MLB pitching, the other has lots of talent but work ethic seems could be a problem and again because of this he is prone to be on DL and may not be able to compete at MLB level in the future. So who are they going to build this team around or we just starting over again so that means were at least 4 years away until we can compete again. That means even the talent we have on this team will need to be traded in the next year or so this is not what we were sold when we hired this new Front Office. 

So you think I am hard on the Twins you should here my son and his friends who are millennials they have lost all patience with the Twins. My son said I need to look for another team to be a fan because he is so tired Twins trading for prospects and never developing in great players and then they trade them away they become star to help another team win a championship. I know this for fact Millennials will not putup with wait for the future like I have my whole life. Twins business management and ownership better start looking at this. They are loosing a generation if they don't start putting team that can win and fans can identify the players who are leaders and stars of this team. Tell me who do the Twins have as identifiable everyday players who are stars on this team if continue trade and let players become free agents. Minnesotans could identify there stars for Vikings, Timberwolves, and Wild  if you asked them but I willing to bet if you asked them identify Twins stars either they have been traded or will not be playing for the Twins next year. How are they going  to sell the Twins next year to get people to buy season tickets, or even believe in them having chance to win. This Front Office may think it has time to build a winner but if attendance and fan interest drops significantly they may have very short leash. If they loose in high 90's again this year and look like they are on pace to do it again next year ownership may want to show they are making changes improve the situation especially after giving this FO 3 plus years show improvement but wins and loses are not improving but going the other way. 

[Major League Ready]

 

Not remotely? The spread of winning percentages in baseball isn't that great, most games are coin flips. At the time of the Escobar trade, our winning percentage was .475 and Fangraphs projected us to be .518 for the rest of the season.

As you reduce the games and teams remaining, coin flip odds become more useful, as they can show how much of our destiny we control. It wasn't a lot, but was comparable to Pittsburgh, San Fran, and St. Louis, none of whom have sold yet like the Twins (St Louis has made trades, but more reorganizing/reloading).

 

I have a very hard time following your logic, not just here but in general. I thought you meant odds of getting into the playoffs. No kidding they are not that far off from a coin flip on a given game. A 90 loss team has a 44.4% chance of winning any given game. 

 

There are two other points where we simply differ in opinion. You view the goal as getting into the playoffs. I view the goal as building a great team. If Cleveland folds the rest of the way and we get in as a 500 team, so what. We are still a bad team. The odds makers would give us somewhere around a 30% chance of winning a playoff series which I include when assessing our odds of success and consequent buy/sell strategies. Again, what difference does it make if we get crushed in a playoff series? That's not success in my opinion. Therefore, I am looking at the probability of success as the odds of getting into the playoffs multiplied by the odds of winning a playoff series.

 

I think the core of our disagreement is you and the millennial fans you reference are unwilling to ,make even the smallest sacrifice to get better better in the future. Cashing in our small odds would require a bunch of players to completely turn around their performance. The departure of Escobar and Pressly does not preclude this from happening (see 2017).  

 

To address your question about the odds of the players we received contributing to the ML club, once again we evaluate that situation very differently. For starters the contribution of Escobar is this season with an extremely low odds of contending a decent RP in the same time period as well as next year where our chances of contending have to be at least a little better.  The players we received in trade would contribute for 6 years if they make it to the ML club. Your focus on the immediate seems to have precluded this consideration.

 

So, do I think the odds are higher of the players we received contributing to an actual contender, absolutely.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I have a very hard time following your logic, not just here but in general. I thought you meant odds of getting into the playoffs. No kidding they are not that far off from a coin flip on a given game. A 90 loss team has a 44.4% chance of winning any given game.

 

 

I have been citing the "coin flip" playoff odds published at Fangraphs, which are based on each game being a coin flip. So given our deficit, plus the number of games and teams left in the race, that gave the Twins a 12.5% chance of winning the division. Nowhere did I mean the Twins had a 50/50 chance of winning the division. Hope that clears things up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think the core of our disagreement is you and the millennial fans you reference

"Millenial fans I reference"? Where?

 

Or is this just a way to be demeaning?

[Major League Ready]

 

"Millenial fans I reference"? Where?

Or is this just a way to be demeaning?

 

Sorry ... That was from ND-Fan and I was thinking it was from you. 

Edited July 30, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[Major League Ready]

 

I have been citing the "coin flip" playoff odds published at Fangraphs, which are based on each game being a coin flip. So given our deficit, plus the number of games and teams left in the race, that gave the Twins a 12.5% chance of winning the division. Nowhere did I mean the Twins had a 50/50 chance of winning the division. Hope that clears things up.

 

I guess I don't understand how the "coin-flip" metafore ever had any relevance. Their odds of winning the division are so low that foregoing an opportunity to add to the farm system would be negligent on the part of the F/O. A significant part of that evaluation is that if one or more of the players make it, they will contribute for 6 years or more. You still have not acknowledged this and I think that is a significant part of the disconnect. The other is the extreme weight you put on the present. I support your desire to never give up. I can't and won't support your insistence that the F/O apply extremely poor management practices because you are unwilling to give any weight to benefits that take place in the future.

 

 

Edited July 30, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[Major League Ready]

 

I am loosing any faith I had in MN Twins front office and ownership now I don't see any plan on how were going to win next year or year after this. Basically were blowing this organization up to rebuild again after basically 6 disaster season and one marginal season where this group of players started to learn how to win. So we have season not expected for the talent assembled and now were trading away large portion of the pieces to restock supposedly very good farm system. This all sounds good where we have this great farm system but now we have traded away bulk of experienced talent that have learned to play and be successful in MLB. All we have left  is one highly regarded young pitcher, Two promising outfielders, and respectable short stop. Then we have two players who were thought to be next future MLB All stars and so far they look like they could be both a bust. The one has right attitude works hard but looks like he prone to be DL a lot and he may never be able to hit MLB pitching, the other has lots of talent but work ethic seems could be a problem and again because of this he is prone to be on DL and may not be able to compete at MLB level in the future. So who are they going to build this team around or we just starting over again so that means were at least 4 years away until we can compete again. That means even the talent we have on this team will need to be traded in the next year or so this is not what we were sold when we hired this new Front Office. 

So you think I am hard on the Twins you should here my son and his friends who are millennials they have lost all patience with the Twins. My son said I need to look for another team to be a fan because he is so tired Twins trading for prospects and never developing in great players and then they trade them away they become star to help another team win a championship. I know this for fact Millennials will not putup with wait for the future like I have my whole life. Twins business management and ownership better start looking at this. They are loosing a generation if they don't start putting team that can win and fans can identify the players who are leaders and stars of this team. Tell me who do the Twins have as identifiable everyday players who are stars on this team if continue trade and let players become free agents. Minnesotans could identify there stars for Vikings, Timberwolves, and Wild  if you asked them but I willing to bet if you asked them identify Twins stars either they have been traded or will not be playing for the Twins next year. How are they going  to sell the Twins next year to get people to buy season tickets, or even believe in them having chance to win. This Front Office may think it has time to build a winner but if attendance and fan interest drops significantly they may have very short leash. If they loose in high 90's again this year and look like they are on pace to do it again next year ownership may want to show they are making changes improve the situation especially after giving this FO 3 plus years show improvement but wins and loses are not improving but going the other way. 

 

Trading a pending free agent and a RP with one more year of control is blowing it up?

Edited July 30, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[USAFChief]

 

I guess I don't understand how the "coin-flip" metafore ever had any relevance. Their odds of winning the division are so low that foregoing an opportunity to add to the farm system would be negligent on the part of the F/O. A significant part of that evaluation is that if one or more of the players make it, they will contribute for 6 years or more. You still have not acknowledged this and I think that is a significant part of the disconnect. The other is the extreme weight you put on the present. I support your desire to never give up. I can't and won't support your insistence that the F/O apply extremely poor management practices because you are unwilling to give any weight to benefits that take place in the future.

nitpic: Getting to the big leagues does not guarantee they "will contribute for 6 years or more." Lots of players make it to the big leagues, but do not have 6 yr careers.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/15/sports/baseball/15careers.html

 

And there is the very real possibility, of course, that they won't make it to the big leagues at all, the fate suffered by most minor league players.

 

If we're talking odds, you're ignoring lots of information here.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I guess I don't understand how the "coin-flip" metafore ever had any relevance. 

Maybe I still wasn't clear, there was no metaphor. "Coin flip" is name of the odds mode that Fangraphs tracks:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/coin-flip/div?date=2018-07-26

 

Those odds are kind of a shorthand for how much destiny control a team has. So despite have a slightly worse record, the Twins as of last week had about as much destiny control as a variety of other teams who still consider themselves in the race, thanks to having only Cleveland to worry about (and ample head-to-head opportunities remaining).

[nicksaviking]

This team has been doing things wrong for so long they've put themselves behind the 8 ball. Most of these poor decisions were made by men who were trying to get every futile win they could despite having terrible teams, and they almost surely did it because they thought if they could get 75 wins instead of 65 wins they might keep their jobs. This organization's ceiling has been ALDS runner up, not WS champion because the goal has only been to simply make the playoffs.

 

The team's odds of making the playoffs are crap and the energy coming off of 80% of the players and the manager are crap. They have tons of expiring contracts and they are going to have more payroll flexibility than even most of the big market teams next year. I know it sucks, another season of watching losing baseball, which likely wasn't going to change with or without Escobar. However, there is a real chance to stock the system like the best clubs have been doing and then go crush it in free agency or via trades to fill the holes over the next couple of years.

 

This really only sucks because they should have done this in 2011 and/or again in 2014-15 but they didn't, they wasted damn near a decade because they were too afraid to rip off the band aid.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So, do I think the odds are higher of the players we received contributing to an actual contender, absolutely.

Do you have any numbers on those odds? Not trying to be snarky, this is an honest question. Because you have employed a lot of qualifiers to diminish the Twins chances for 2018 that have raised the bar for your future expectations, to the point where it's not so clear those odds are all that different.

 

For example, viewing the goal as building a great team that could be a favorite to win the World Series once the postseason begins -- that sounds good, but how often does that happen? I don't know if it's ever happened for the Twins in the wild card era. I guess in 2006 we had the top seed, but after losing basically every SP not named Johan and using Jason Tyner as a playoff DH, we probably weren't the favorite. So what are the odds for us to have such a "great season", 1 in 10 if you are charitable? 1 in 20? Arguably no better or worse than Fangraphs "season to date stats" projection mode (not "coin flip" )gave us for winning the division as of the Escobar trade (8.4%):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/season-to-date/div?date=2018-07-26

 

Maybe the Twins new front office is trying to change that, forgoing some regular division contention for aiming to build that "great team" of the future, but given the revenue/payroll figures you often cite, it's very debatable if that is a wise strategy in this market.

 

Then on top of that, you are adding an additional qualifier that the specific 5 mid-tier, low-minors prospects we just acquired will contribute significantly to that 1 in 10 or 1 in 20 "great season". I don't think it's a controversial statement to say that prospects, especially that level and quantity, are hardly predictable with that any level of precision. Even if you forecast them to collectively give you more future WAR than Escobar and Pressly, you really can't say with much certainty when or how it will happen -- it might come in seasons like 2018 again, or worse. It might come in increments of 1 WAR per season, which are not uncommon augmentations for any team in any given season -- you don't necessarily need to sell in our current position to secure those kind of assets.

 

So that's why I am asking you for something more concrete about your odds. Otherwise, all we have is platitudes about your gut feeling -- which isn't necessarily bad, we are just fans on a message board after all -- but the certainty with which you are dismissing my dissenting opinion suggests something greater than that. I've shown you 8.4% odds for the Twins winning the division, what odds do you put on your scenario (these 5 prospects contributing significantly to a future "great season" where we are postseason favorites)? And what are the underlying numbers you would use to arrive at that figure?

[Loosey]

 

So the whole season for you boils down to a 3 game series. That all you got?

Or the 90+ games prior to that 3 game series. . .

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This really only sucks because they should have done this in 2011 and/or again in 2014-15 but they didn't, they wasted damn near a decade because they were too afraid to rip off the band aid.

They didn't have a whole lot of good assets in 2011. We got 2012 picks #32 (Berrios) and #42 (Bard) for losing Cuddyer and Kubel, respectively -- that seems pretty good, actually.

 

2014, I guess we had Perkins, but by that time he had been eclipsed by Andrew Miller. Maybe we could have gotten a Soria-like return for him? Soria netted Jake Thompson and Corey Knebel that deadline. But even then, Knebel's only had one really good year (although it was really, really good), and Thompson has kind of busted so far.

[Loosey]

As a "millenial" I understand how baseball works as well as odds and statistics.  

 

The Twins traded away one of the best players on their team who was having a career year.  But what lots of people seem to forget is his contract is up in 2 months and this team is basically out of contention.  Yes, they do have mathematical chances to catch Cleveland, but in reality I doubt it happens.  So, I am happy they received something for Escobar that could be a future part of this team.

 

On the Pressly front I love that deal.  Pressly is good reliever, but with his stuff his numbers should be a lot better.  He has not harnessed his talent and converted them lock down results you would expect with a talent like him.

 

The Twins are still set up to succeed in in 2019 and beyond.  The front office doesn't play the games, they can only put the players they think are best on the field.  The way the system is set up, there are going to be waves of talent coming to Minnnesota over the course of the next 3-4 years.  Hopefully, the talent transfer from MiLB to MLB.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This team has been doing things wrong for so long they've put themselves behind the 8 ball. Most of these poor decisions were made by men who were trying to get every futile win they could despite having terrible teams, and they almost surely did it because they thought if they could get 75 wins instead of 65 wins they might keep their jobs. This organization's ceiling has been ALDS runner up, not WS champion because the goal has only been to simply make the playoffs.

 

The team's odds of making the playoffs are crap and the energy coming off of 80% of the players and the manager are crap. They have tons of expiring contracts and they are going to have more payroll flexibility than even most of the big market teams next year. I know it sucks, another season of watching losing baseball, which likely wasn't going to change with or without Escobar. However, there is a real chance to stock the system like the best clubs have been doing and then go crush it in free agency or via trades to fill the holes over the next couple of years.

 

This really only sucks because they should have done this in 2011 and/or again in 2014-15 but they didn't, they wasted damn near a decade because they were too afraid to rip off the band aid.

I am sympathetic to this, somewhat; the story of KC and Houston was losing 100 games a year in order to get high draft picks.

 

But we already have those top picks. Royce Lewis, Rooker, and Larnach (or Kirilloff), are already in the organization. We don't need to "re-blow it up." I don't see how retaining Escobar would have interfered with their development.

[alarp33]

 

I've shown you 8.4% odds for the Twins winning the division, what odds do you put on your scenario (these 5 prospects contributing significantly to a future "great season" where we are postseason favorites)? And what are the underlying numbers you would use to arrive at that figure?

 

You keep throwing this number out there like it's super meaningful, without acknowledging the fact that trading Escobar, adding Sano in his place.. trading Pressley, adding Moya in his place, realistically only lowered your 8.4% to what, 5-6%?  It did not go from 8.4% to 0.0%

[Mike Sixel]

They blew it up?

 

They traded an impending free agent, who until this year was a utility infielder. Who, if Sano had been good, would have been a utility infielder again when Polanco returned.

 

They traded a relief pitcher, who is good, but not awesome.

 

Coming into the year, they spent the most money they ever have. They plugged the holes they had with free agents. They were certainly in win now mode.

 

The anger is so strong, I am defending the front office..... Think about that....

Edited July 30, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[alarp33]

 

They blew it up?

They traded an impending free agent, who until this year was a utility infielder. Who, if Sano had been good, would have been a utility infielder again when Polanco returned.

They traded a relief pitcher, who is good, but not awesome.

Coming into the year, they spent the most money they ever have. They plugged the holes they had with free agents. They were certainly in win now mode.

The anger is so strong, I am defending the front office..... Think about that....

 

I wish I could like this twice.. it's like people have completely forgot how terrible this baseball team has looked the vast majority of the season. I can't believe we're bringing out the pitchforks that a team who hadn't been at .500 since April 22 decided to trade 2 average players, 1 of which was a pending free agent, the other of which received a pretty damn nice return for 1.2 years of service

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yes, they do have mathematical chances to catch Cleveland, but in reality I doubt it happens.  So, I am happy they received something for Escobar that could be a future part of this team.

...

The way the system is set up, there are going to be waves of talent coming to Minnnesota over the course of the next 3-4 years

4 of the 5 prospects we acquired were rated by Fangraphs preseason at 40 FV, and the other was not rated. We already had 30 prospects rated at 40 FV or better, before the latest draft.

 

Fangraphs had this to say before the season: "The Twins have a deep system with promising players at all levels, featuring a variety of profiles and pedigrees. They’re positioned well, with a competitive, mostly young big-league team and a farm system that has at least one solid contributor emerging each year to fill holes."

 

How much did that really change with these 2 trades?

[Mike Sixel]

Mlb put one new guy at eleven, and one at fifteen, with the others all in the top thirty. It made the system better. Did it give them a future mlb player? We don't know yet, but it increased the odds.

[Bill]

 

 

How much did that really change with these 2 trades?

 

Not too much. 

 

We gave up a little (slight decrease in already low chances of making playoffs this year) and in return we got a little (moderate chance new minor leaguers turn out to be solid MLB contributers). 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The anger is so strong, I am defending the front office..... Think about that....

You should rethink which side that angst is coming from. The original poster acknowledged that the players have failed to this point. But, there were signs, like last year, that the players were starting to turn it around. The original poster wanted the front office to let the season play out. I agreed completely.

 

That's basically it.

[Mike Sixel]

You should rethink which side that angst is coming from. The original poster acknowledged that the players have failed to this point. But, there were signs, like last year, that the players were starting to turn it around. The original poster wanted the front office to let the season play out. I agreed completely.

 

That's basically it.

That part was about the board as a whole...I should have been more clear.

 

They didn't turn anything around. They played Baltimore and Kansas City..... Baltimore is historically bad. I really think people are ignoring that, when looking at the recent record.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You keep throwing this number out there like it's super meaningful, without acknowledging the fact that trading Escobar, adding Sano in his place.. trading Pressley, adding Moya in his place, realistically only lowered your 8.4% to what, 5-6%?  It did not go from 8.4% to 0.0%

I'm not trying to present it like it's "super meaningful" but it's one of the few reference points we have. I think one can absolutely disagree about its meaning. What I object to, is that a few folks on the "sell" side are disagreeing quite specifically and stridently with me that the number could have any meaning whatsoever, or that an unspecified future odds number is now much greater due to our course of action.

 

 

I think both sides can be logical here -- I just happen to be on one side, and you are on the other. No harm in that.

 

Although a 2% drop, on 8% odds to begin with, is a 25% drop relative to where we were before. (And frankly, I'd also disagree with that limited drop in the odds. Sano doesn't look ready to take anyone's place right now, much less Escobar's, and Prospectus just compared Pressly favorably to Chapman, Hader, and Diaz -- the downgrade for the next 2 months to Moya, a guy who apparently couldn't beat out Belisle for mop-up duty all summer, is perhaps not captured well by the projections. For a team in a position where we need every marginal win we can get to actually pull off the upset, this was more than a 2% drop. It was a bigger sell-off than Kintzler and Garcia, for sure.)