Article: Dear Twins: Don't Sell!

[Guest]

 

I hope SD Buhr is working on his next article, "Dear Twins: Don't give us all free 2019 season tickets!"

I'm always looking for help with ideas for future posts. This one proved to be just about as effective as the several "End the F'ing Blackouts!" articles I've published over the past several years. Then again, I'm used to the Twins' FO ignoring me.

 

I will say this, however... I don't HATE the two deals they've made. 

 

I love Escobar, but if the Twins WERE going to have any chance to catch Cleveland, it was almost certainly going to require Sano to come back and hit well. That being the case, Escobar was going to be a man without a regular position. I don't know enough about the prospects they got for him to judge the return fairly, though.

 

Likewise, I love what Pressly did this year. But he is a relief pitcher and, if nothing else, the players themselves demonstrated last season that losing even a very good RP doesn't mean you can't win a lot of games.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I love Escobar, but if the Twins WERE going to have any chance to catch Cleveland, it was almost certainly going to require Sano to come back and hit well. That being the case, Escobar was going to be a man without a regular position.

Not necessarily. We still have a pretty big hole at DH that Sano could have filled, if he was ready. We may have wanted 3B reps for Sano to get ready for 2019 too -- but in that case, we could use Escobar at DH if he was still hitting. Or slide him over to 2B/SS if those players are scuffling. (And not to put the cart before the horse, but Polanco would have been ineligible for the postseason too, so Escobar getting regular SS reps could have been helpful.)

 

I generally agree with you though -- I don't really mind the trades in isolation, I would probably like the returns, but they still feel a little depressing in context and they've definitely tempered my interest/enthusiasm for the club right now. Almost wish we had been another ~5 games back, or had a club between us and Cleveland in the standings.

[yarnivek1972]

Only org apologists would truly believe that Escobar was traded to get Sano back in the lineup.

 

Taking your second most productive hitter out isn’t what a winning team would do. They would figure out ways to get him in more.

[Monkeypaws]

This team has more "deer in the headlights" about it than championship swagger. I like the recent moves and am hoping for more. 

 

 

[ashbury]

Not necessarily. We still have a pretty big hole at DH that Sano could have filled, if he was ready.

It's faintly possible that the Twins somehow had some inside information that he was not.

 

In which case the season is lost, in which case trading Esco-bear is defensible.

 

The Sano promotion this weekend could be for different purposes than readiness.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

This team has more "deer in the headlights" about it than championship swagger. I like the recent moves and am hoping for more. 

no surprise, they just traded away their second best player after 4 wins in a row.

[Danchat]

 

Well I believe that the Twins have winning records against Boston, Cleveland and Houston so far this year?? They've just stunk against KC, Detroit, and the White Sox??

They now have a losing record against Boston (3-4) and they're 2-1 against Houston, so that doesn't mean a whole lot. It is odd how they haven't played their best against the AL Central outside of Cleveland...

[alarp33]

no surprise, they just traded away their second best player after 4 wins in a row.

That was preceeded by a sweep at the hands of the Royals. You can try to put lipstick on a pig all you’d like, but the record and standings don’t lie

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

That was preceeded by a sweep at the hands of the Royals. You can try to put lipstick on a pig all you’d like, but the record and standings don’t lie

Record and standings don't lie, except for when they do.

 

You see, if I state that this Front Office inherited an 85-win team from 2017 and has turned it into a sell-off in 2018, then I'm told that they weren't as good as their record in 2017. 

 

So, no, that is just your opinion.

[alarp33]

Record and standings don't lie, except for when they do.

 

You see, if I state that this Front Office inherited an 85-win team from 2017 and has turned it into a sell-off in 2018, then I'm told that they weren't as good as their record in 2017.

 

So, no, that is just your opinion.

What? Last years team may have out performed their peripherals but they won 85 games, no one has taken that away. This years team may be better than its record indicates, but unfortunately the record is all that matters when determining post season teams.

 

It’s great that you were so impressed by the 4 game winning streak, but all that winning streak did was bring them within 5 games of .500

Edited July 29, 2018 by alarp33

[Monkeypaws]

 

no surprise, they just traded away their second best player after 4 wins in a row.

 

Yeah, true. 

 

However, who on this team is going to rise to the challenge? Rosario is a gamer, and so is Berrios. The rest?

 

Mauer, Dozier, these guys are milque-toast. Watched the great post someone made about the Morris game 7 win in 91. Those guys had winner attitude. We got a bunch of nice guys who lack that "we gonna kick yo ass" attitude.

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yeah, true. 

 

However, who on this team is going to rise to the challenge? Rosario is a gamer, and so is Berrios. The rest?

 

I believe in Kepler, still believe in Buxton, have always believed in Gibson, but the other name you are looking for is Eduardo Escobar.

 

See what I mean?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Also, I love Dozier, but I just think Father Time is not being kind to him. We see how Kipnis and others of his type are not aging well. At this point I hope the front office trades Dozier to a winner. Get whatever you can get. Might as well complete the 2018 sell off. Why go half way on that, too?

 

I am in complete agreement with the original post. I want to see a six month pennant race in 2019.

[Brock Beauchamp]

no surprise, they just traded away their second best player after 4 wins in a row.

Maybe the team should have reconsidered losing three in a row to one of the worst teams in baseball if they didn’t want the front office to sell.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Maybe the team should have reconsidered losing three in a row to one of the worst teams in baseball if they didn’t want the front office to sell.

So the whole season for you boils down to a 3 game series. That all you got?

[nicksaviking]

no surprise, they just traded away their second best player after 4 wins in a row.

'This team needs to get to the point where four game winning streaks are the norm, not the high point of the season before they'll be a real contender.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So the whole season for you boils down to a 3 game series. That all you got?

Maybe the team should have reconsidered being nearly ten games under .500 after the KC series if they wanted to compete.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Maybe the team should have reconsidered being nearly ten games under .500 after the KC series if they wanted to compete.

Agree - be a winning team first. Playoffs for this team, 2018 version, is a laughable proposition.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Maybe the team should have reconsidered being nearly ten games under .500 after the KC series if they wanted to compete.

I think the problem with the "blame the players" reasoning is that the players aren't a monolith. Sure, you can blame Morrison, you can blame Dozier, you can blame Sano -- but would you blame Escobar? Rosario? Berrios? Gibson? I've got a lot of sympathy for those guys.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think the problem with the "blame the players" reasoning is that the players aren't a monolith. Sure, you can blame Morrison, you can blame Dozier, you can blame Sano -- but would you blame Escobar? Rosario? Berrios? Gibson? I've got a lot of sympathy for those guys.

Sure, I have a lot of sympathy for the guys who are playing their asses off out there but this team has vastly underperformed. I can put some of the blame on coaching but at the end of the day, there's no excuse for some of these players to have backslid as hard or quickly as they did. That's on them.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Maybe the team should have reconsidered being nearly ten games under .500 after the KC series if they wanted to compete.

Well, the same front office selling Escobar for lottery tickets is the same front office who brought us Lynn, Morrison, Rodney, who can't close out a one run game, Duke and Reed, who have been ok at times but overall average, and Odorizzi, who has been average though I do like Odorizzi. You can say in other threads that all of those FA signings were "smart" signings, but that doesn't make it so. Not everyone was on board or happy about the offseason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And somewhat arbitrary small sample, but the team was 13-8 since Polanco returned from his suspension up until the front office decided to start selling. Made up 2 games on Cleveland in that time, without the benefit of any head-to-head matchups. (Pretty good considering they lost Polanco's 3 games back -- since that point, they had made up 5 games on Cleveland.)

 

Now, Polanco was no superstar that was expected to carry the team, but his absence was a bit of an external factor out of the other players control. And his return was a welcome positive development after a few negative ones. Ervin's return too. And maybe just by bad luck of timing, the team never really got a chance to fully redeem themselves after their returns.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Well, the same front office selling Escobar for lottery tickets is the same front office who brought us Lynn, Morrison, Rodney, who can't close out a one run game, Duke and Reed, who have been ok at times but overall average, and Odorizzi, who has been average though I do like Odorizzi. You can say in other threads that all of those FA signings were "smart" signings, but that doesn't make it so. Not everyone was on board or happy about the offseason.

Lots of guys have underperformed. The signings were mostly bad in retrospect but that happens, especially when coupled with almost everyone else on the team taking a step back.

 

But that doesn't change the fact that the players have no right to be "deer in headlights" after the Escobar trade. If they wanted Escobar on the team, they should have gotten their **** together and played up to their career lines. Escobar was doing his job; over half the rest of the roster was not.

[Guest]

Hey all, just want to thank you all for taking the time to read this post and also thanks for the discussion in the comments. 

 

I'm not thrilled with the FO decision and, while I don't think anyone can really blame them for selling off parts for possible future help, I wish they hadn't - certainly not for just one AA guy and a bunch of Class A-level talent. If they'd added talent that you'd reasonably expect to contribute next year, it would have been just a little bit easier to accept again.

 

It's easy to say, "the players should have played better if they didn't want to become sellers," and that's certainly valid. But every season is going to see x players under-perform and y players meet/exceed expectations.

 

If Pressly had been available and Escobar had been around, maybe the Twins win Friday's game. No way to know. But they will certainly lose more games without those players... and any others that may be dealt in the next few days... over the next 2 months than they would have with them.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sure, I have a lot of sympathy for the guys who are playing their asses off out there but this team has vastly underperformed. I can put some of the blame on coaching but at the end of the day, there's no excuse for some of these players to have backslid as hard or quickly as they did. That's on them.

That would seem to be a decided minority of players, no? And a few of those point directly back to the front office anyway.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That would seem to be a decided minority of players, no? And a few of those point directly back to the front office anyway.

Six of one, half dozen of the other. There's no excuse for Lynn, Reed, Morrison, et al performing at the levels they have this season. They're all veterans with established track records and none of them are old.

 

To a lesser extent, there's no excuse for Sano or Buxton's seasons (though Buxton has something of a defense).

 

I'm not giving the front office a pass because they pretty obviously chose the wrong players. But I refuse to give the players a pass, either, because they had either a veteran track record or the same coaching staff last year and played much better. It's their responsibility to get their asses on the field and play baseball at the level we've seen them do in past seasons.

[Otto von Ballpark]

But that doesn't change the fact that the players have no right to be "deer in headlights" after the Escobar trade. If they wanted Escobar on the team, they should have gotten their **** together and played up to their career lines. Escobar was doing his job; over half the rest of the roster was not.

Is it good GM'ing to mostly sit on your hands for 4 months, then take Escobar and Pressly away because of a few underperforming players? Just when your team, overall, is showing some signs of life in July, in advance of a big opportunity to face Cleveland head to head?

 

St Louis had similar "coin flip" playoff odds as we did (they were a little closer to a spot, but were competing with more teams), suggesting similar destiny control going forward. They actually DFA'd a couple veteran underperformers and called up some prospects last week. The Nationals had a bad start, and tried to shore up with a major trade acquisition way back in June.

 

What has our FO done? I guess they dropped Hughes early in the season, although that move was a long time coming. They signed Belisle for mop-up work in June. They curiously demoted Romero and then Mejia after Odorizzi and Lynn had bad starts, respectively.

 

Yes, some players have underperformed. But I am not really comforted by how the front office has dealt with that either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Six of one, half dozen of the other. There's no excuse for Lynn, Reed, Morrison, et al performing at the levels they have this season. They're all veterans with established track records and none of them are old.

 

To a lesser extent, there's no excuse for Sano or Buxton's seasons (though Buxton has something of a defense).

 

I'm not giving the front office a pass because they pretty obviously chose the wrong players. But I refuse to give the players a pass, either, because they had either a veteran track record or the same coaching staff last year and played much better. It's their responsibility to get their asses on the field and play baseball at the level we've seen them do in past seasons.

FWIW, Morrison has been pretty unlucky by expected wOBA. (Mauer too, apparently.) And Lynn has been fairly cromulent since his late start. Reed was hurt.

 

But let's complete the "et al". Polanco got himself suspended, but he's back. Grossman scuffled, but has come on strong, nearing his preseason projections. Dozier has scuffled too, but is at least playing around an average WAR level. Kepler too (and maybe he's a little BABIP unlucky?).

 

Castro got hurt, and Garver scuffled but has been coming on strong. Erv was hurt, but now he's back.

 

The big ones are Sano and Buxton. Sano... he finished 2017 poorly so I can't say this is entirely unexpected. Thankfully we had Escobar. Buxton was bad, then hurt (and bad), but the front office's solution for 3 months was LaMarre and more Grossman. They just turned to Cave before we started improving in July (not that I necessarily expect him to keep performing).

 

I don't know. What you are trying to say is just a clear reason for the front office to sell, actually looks to me like the we had some hope going forward, and/or the front office is partly to blame for their poor response (or lack thereof).

[Otto von Ballpark]

And I don't like to wade too much into the waters of "how will current and future players react?", but when we start talking about blaming the players for the deadline sale, it is sort of a natural corollary.

 

Two seasons in a row of that, and it might start leaving a mark...

[Major League Ready]

 

Is it good GM'ing to mostly sit on your hands for 4 months, then take Escobar and Pressly away because of a few underperforming players? Just when your team, overall, is showing some signs of life in July, in advance of a big opportunity to face Cleveland head to head?

St Louis had similar "coin flip" playoff odds as we did (they were a little closer to a spot, but were competing with more teams), suggesting similar destiny control going forward. They actually DFA'd a couple veteran underperformers and called up some prospects last week. The Nationals had a bad start, and tried to shore up with a major trade acquisition way back in June.

What has our FO done? I guess they dropped Hughes early in the season, although that move was a long time coming. They signed Belisle for mop-up work in June. They curiously demoted Romero and then Mejia after Odorizzi and Lynn had bad starts, respectively.

Yes, some players have underperformed. But I am not really comforted by how the front office has dealt with that either.

 

A coin flip is 50/50. We are not remotely a coin flip. Plus, the only reason we have a chance to make the playoffs is that we play in an extremely weak division. 

 

Is the goal to make the playoffs in a weak division or is it to construct a great team? It seems many of you are want to waste an opportunity to get better for a small chance to get into a playoff series where we would be the considerably weaker team no matter which of the opponents we draw. That is an incredibly misguided unless your goal is to stay mediocre or in our case not even mediocre.