Article: GM For A Deadline, Part Two

[caninatl04]

 

I like Gibson, but I’m still not completely sold. I mean, what if this is just a career year for him?

The Yankees have the biggest need for a starter, and one of the better systems, sooo I’d say (realistically) sell high on Gibby for Domingo German and Dillion Tate.

I would do it in an instant.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There are 10 contending teams in the NL. A #4 starter would help, by my count, 6 of them

 

Wut?

 

He's been a number 2 for over a year now. 

 

I really don't get what people are typing about Gibson on these threads.

[alarp33]

Wut?

 

He's been a number 2 for over a year now.

 

I really don't get what people are typing about Gibson on these threads.

It’s very likely your definition of #2 is far different than others definition. If Kyle Gibson is your 2nd best starter it’s unlikely you are a serious contender. Edited July 24, 2018 by alarp33

[caninatl04]

 

Yeah, you don't trade away a guy giving you fairly consistent #3 starter performance when you lack a surplus of those guys. Aside from Berrios, who else can you reasonably count on to give you better than back-half performance? Trade from THAT surplus, especially the ones who have almost zero chance of improvement. Which means you look to move Lynn and Odor Easy and plug in the MLB ready prospects. And then hope a couple among Romero, Pineda, May, and Mejia et al give you better than #4 starter performance. With Littel, Slegers, Gonsalves et al we have plenty of guys ready to give us back-end performance in line with what we're getting now from Lynn and Odor Easy.

And hope, and pray and say Amen. 

I wanted to believe that there were 2 or 3 or even 4 starters who were oh so close. I believe their combined ERA is over 8.00 and their appearances netted 5 games below.

 

Let me ask-- who might be the starting rotation on opening day 2019?

[Mike Sixel]

 

It’s very likely your definition of #2 is far different than others definition. If Kyle Gibson is your 2nd best starter it’s unlikely you are a serious contender.

 

gibson is 26th in WAR this year.......what is your definition?

 

he's 49th since the beginning of last year, counting the first half, before he made his change in approach.....of all pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched.

 

His projection for the rest of the year is better than any Brewer pitcher.....

 

I could keep going, but I doubt people are listening.

Edited July 24, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[alarp33]

gibson is 26th in WAR this year.......what is your definition?

 

he's 49th since the beginning of last year, counting the first half, before he made his change in approach.....of all pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched.

 

His projection for the rest of the year is better than any Brewer pitcher.....

 

I could keep going, but I doubt people are listening.

I for one do not judge a pitcher by WAR over a 4 month period. Especially a nearly 31 year old with no track record of sustained success

 

When I say contender I mean contend for a title. I don’t include a team like the Brewers. Gibson wouldn’t be in the post season rotation for the Astros.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I for one do not judge a pitcher by WAR over a 4 month period. Especially a nearly 31 year old with no track record of sustained success

When I say contender I mean contend for a title. I don’t include a team like the Brewers. Gibson wouldn’t be in the post season rotation for the Astros.

 

The Astros have the best rotation in the game, maybe one of the best in a very long time.....so, sure, he won't crack the best rotation in the game.

 

How about the Yankees? Or the Cubs? He's better than any Cubs pitcher this year.....

 

Basically, the question is.....did he make a real change last year? Is he now a legit number 2? Feel free to think not, but the data for the last 12 months indicates otherwise. Projection systems say otherwise. I bet most teams think he's a 2/3 right now, and for next year. 

[slash129]

 

Wut?

 

He's been a number 2 for over a year now. 

 

I really don't get what people are typing about Gibson on these threads.

 

In the AL ...

 

17th in WAR

18th in xFIP

14th in IP (with one less start than most of the field)

 

In ML

 

26th in WAR

31st in xFIP

21st in IP

 

Yes, he is a solid #2 flirting with being a #1.  I'm going by current baseball starter economics, not some ideal #2 starter on a super team.

[Tomj14]

 

gibson is 26th in WAR this year.......what is your definition?

 

he's 49th since the beginning of last year, counting the first half, before he made his change in approach.....of all pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched.

 

His projection for the rest of the year is better than any Brewer pitcher.....

 

I could keep going, but I doubt people are listening.

14th in innings pitched (AL)

16th in K's (AL)

25th in WHIP (AL)

 

[alarp33]

The Astros have the best rotation in the game, maybe one of the best in a very long time.....so, sure, he won't crack the best rotation in the game.

 

How about the Yankees? Or the Cubs? He's better than any Cubs pitcher this year.....

 

Basically, the question is.....did he make a real change last year? Is he now a legit number 2? Feel free to think not, but the data for the last 12 months indicates otherwise. Projection systems say otherwise. I bet most teams think he's a 2/3 right now, and for next year.

Again, definitions. I think he’s finally turned into a good middle of the rotation starter. For me there’s maybe 20-30 guys in all of baseball I’d label as Aces or 2’s, Gibson wouldn’t be one of them

 

If Berrios is your 2, Gibson your 3.. it might be a pretty good rotation. Make that 1+2... meh

Edited July 24, 2018 by alarp33

[slash129]

 

Again, definitions. I think he’s finally turned into a good middle of the rotation starter. For me there’s maybe 20-30 guys in all of baseball I’d label as Aces or 2’s, Gibson wouldn’t be one of them

If Berrios is your 2, Gibson your 3.. it might be a pretty good rotation. Make that 1+2... meh

 

For the sake of defining trade value, Gibson is currently performing just outside the top 15 pitchers in the AL (just inside or outside the top 30 in ML) and has been for approximately the equivalent of one season (30+ starts) after measurable changes to his approach. It's no small sample size, and teams had a full off-season to get video and make themselves aware of the changes. This means he should return the demand for a #2 (and if I'm Falvine, I'm adding a situational premium due to the buyer's desired end goal).  Sure he may not be the 2nd best pitcher on a contending team, but those teams are attempting to have a performance above the mean in each slot.  The contender should pay for a #2, even if they want to use him as a #4.

 

I can agree with the last line of your post, because if the Twins wanted to contend then they also need to find additional performance above the mean.

[alarp33]

 

For the sake of defining trade value, Gibson is currently performing just outside the top 15 pitchers in the AL (just inside or outside the top 30 in ML) and has been for approximately the equivalent of one season (30+ starts) after measurable changes to his approach. It's no small sample size, and teams had a full off-season to get video and make themselves aware of the changes. This means he should return the demand for a #2 (and if I'm Falvine, I'm adding a situational premium due to the buyer's desired end goal).  Sure he may not be the 2nd best pitcher on a contending team, but those teams are attempting to have a performance above the mean in each slot.  The contender should pay for a #2, even if they want to use him as a #4.

 

I can agree with the last line of your post, because if the Twins wanted to contend then they also need to find additional performance above the mean.

 

I guess I'm not sure what you're going for here, but his trade value does not equal his stats for this season. If only it were that simple. But GM's will look at age, contract, length of deal, history of performance, etc. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I for one do not judge a pitcher by WAR over a 4 month period. Especially a nearly 31 year old with no track record of sustained success

When I say contender I mean contend for a title. I don’t include a team like the Brewers. Gibson wouldn’t be in the post season rotation for the Astros.

 

You may have a point with Houston, as they are stacked on the mound. But he would be on every other playoff team's post season roster, and in most cases, not as the fourth guy.

 

Gibson is a top 30 pitcher this year. There are 30 teams. You can quibble over 1 vs. 2 in how that fits, but the bottom line is that Gibson would be an upgrade on just about every playoff team/contender.... and in most cases, significant.

[jorgenswest]

I saw the trade thought posted by Mike of Lynn for Gray in his news thread.

 

I agree that the Yankees don’t make that move though the Twins can help with salary.

 

How about Gibson for one of their top pitching prospects plus Gray? With Gray they have some talent controlled through 2019 to work with and they have another good arm in the system.

 

There is some non zero likelihood that Gray is better than Gibson next year. He also could be a guy a few pitches from an injury.

[alarp33]

 

You may have a point with Houston, as they are stacked on the mound. But he would be on every other playoff team's post season roster, and in most cases, not as the fourth guy.

 

Gibson is a top 30 pitcher this year. There are 30 teams. You can quibble over 1 vs. 2 in how that fits, but the bottom line is that Gibson would be an upgrade on just about every playoff team/contender.... and in most cases, significant.

 

Again, you are looking solely at his performance this season. I am not. His WAR is higher than Kershaw's this year. His WAR is higher than McCullers, and Carlos Carrasco, Quintana, Hendricks, Price... and the list goes on. Those teams would laugh if you suggested Kyle Gibson was a clear upgrade over their guy

[Dman]

 

The Astros have the best rotation in the game, maybe one of the best in a very long time.....so, sure, he won't crack the best rotation in the game.

 

How about the Yankees? Or the Cubs? He's better than any Cubs pitcher this year.....

 

Basically, the question is.....did he make a real change last year? Is he now a legit number 2? Feel free to think not, but the data for the last 12 months indicates otherwise. Projection systems say otherwise. I bet most teams think he's a 2/3 right now, and for next year. 

 

I'm just so used to Gibby exploding at least once a month I can't believe he has been this good.  This consistent.  Thanks for the Stats!  

 

The Better Gibson is, the less likely the Twins trade him.  We need good to great pitching as much or more than anyone else.  If he is good again next year they could work out an extension or try the QO route.  He is getting older though so hopefully this isn't his best stretch and then done.

[slash129]

 

I guess I'm not sure what you're going for here, but his trade value does not equal his stats for this season. If only it were that simple. But GM's will look at age, contract, length of deal, history of performance, etc. 

 

So they'd be looking at a 30yo #2 with relatively cheap, controllable salary through 2019 who's been pitching at his highest level when the buyer is looking to win now.

 

If a GM called Falvine and made an offer for a mean #4 with Gibson's history of 2016 through mid-2017, they should answer with ... "How do you think that type of pitcher is going to help you now when you're trying to make a playoff push? Call back when you're ready to talk about Kyle Gibson."

[alarp33]

So they'd be looking at a 30yo #2 with relatively cheap, controllable salary through 2019 who's been pitching at his highest level when the buyer is looking to win now.

 

If a GM called Falvine and made an offer for a mean #4 with Gibson's history of 2016 through mid-2017, they should answer with ... "How do you think that type of pitcher is going to help you now when you're trying to make a playoff push? Call back when you're ready to talk about Kyle Gibson."

I’m sorry I still don’t understand your point. GM’s don’t call each other and ask for “a #4”.

 

Gibson has trade value, largely because he’s pitched well recently and the SP trade market is extremely thin. You’re losing me with this “you demand they talk about him and trade him as a #2”

[rv78]

Who really thinks this team can compete with what it has coming back in 2019? I don't. In fact, if they don't add significant pieces they won't compete for a long time. They can't even get their 2 main hitting pieces for the future (Sano and Buxton) to stay out of the minors. How long before Lewis, Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach get here?

[slash129]

 

I’m sorry I still don’t understand your point. GM’s don’t call each other and ask for “a #4”.

Gibson has trade value, largely because he’s pitched well recently and the SP trade market is extremely thin. You’re losing me with this “you demand they talk about him and trade him as a #2”

 

It's semantics, but you're likely correct in that they don't call and ask for a #2 or #4.  Falvine can easily say that they want to be compensated for a top 20-25 AL (top 30-35 ML) starter with a sweet contract situation through 2019. 

 

I understand that these are human players, but they do get treated like commodities to a degree by the FOs.

 

Why wouldn't the Twins demand value base on his recent performance and then some? They have no motivation to "get what they can".  They have Gibson and for next season too.  The buyers all have the low ground on this one.

[Ben Noble]

 

Therein lies the rub for 2019. I think Berrios and Gibson (assuming the last year is what he now is) are a strong #2 and #3 in a contending rotation. Santana and Odorizzi could easily be sold as numbers 3 and 4. Who's No. 1? There isn't one at AAA so the AAA guys become #5 and everyone moves up one. Now you have a decent but not great rotation. Better than most years, but probably not enough unless Berrios takes yet another step forward.  

 

Romero is in AAA. He may or may not take a Berrios-like step forward next year, but I suspect he will. If he does, Berrios - Gibson - Romero would be the best top of the rotation we've had in a long time.

[Riverbrian]

Yeah, you don't trade away a guy giving you fairly consistent #3 starter performance when you lack a surplus of those guys. Aside from Berrios, who else can you reasonably count on to give you better than back-half performance? Trade from THAT surplus, especially the ones who have almost zero chance of improvement. Which means you look to move Lynn and Odor Easy and plug in the MLB ready prospects. And then hope a couple among Romero, Pineda, May, and Mejia et al give you better than #4 starter performance. With Littel, Slegers, Gonsalves et al we have plenty of guys ready to give us back-end performance in line with what we're getting now from Lynn and Odor Easy.

There are guarantees on Gibson duplicating, staying healthy or anything of the sort but regardless that doesn’t mean we should assume he won’t. I’m just a firm believer in letting a guy continue doing well. Trade the Free Agent club for what you can acquire and keeping building the roster in the off season. I ain’t in the mood to start over.

[Brandon]

Romero is in AAA. He may or may not take a Berrios-like step forward next year, but I suspect he will. If he does, Berrios - Gibson - Romero would be the best top of the rotation we've had in a long time.

And Pineda

[ChrisKnutson]

I really don’t get the Gibby bandwagon.

 

Yes, I know we’ve been waiting a long time for “this Gibson,” but it isn’t like he’ll be entering free agency at 26 (like Machado), he’ll be 31. And even if he does carry this level of play into 2019, we might have to overpay in 2020 (offseason) to keep him around.

 

The reality is, he blossomed too late to be apart of the youth movement.

[bird]

 

I tend to agree with you on Gibby, with the caveat that I'd move him if the front office thinks this is a mirage. I don't for the record, and think he replicate this season in 2019...

 

That said, I think you're being a bit hard on him calling him a 3. He's been a well above average starting pitcher this season. Perhaps you don't view a 3 as an average pitcher, but I think that's a bit unfair to Gibby.

 

 

If I'm planning as a GM, I'm going to ratchet down my expectation (probability) that I get #2 performance out of Gibby in 2019, even if I believe he found the secret sauce. I want to plug guys in and hope for a pleasant surprise.

 

As all this relates to the trade deadline, all I can worry about in the next week or so is exrracting future value from whatever surplus exists. I have a two-starter shortage, in my GM mind, at the front of the rotation, with Berrios my only viable piece. I have to hope that I get a surprise out of Romero, Pineda, Santana, or even someone like May. And I have to hope (but not expect) Gibby's a #2 performer. Then, I want to expect that I can fill the #4 slot with one of them, and have a surplus of candidates to round things out: Mejia, Gonsalves, Littel, etc. Odor Easy and Lynn are not part of the plan. I'm hunting for lottery ticket returns for them, and for 2-3 of the relievers. Then I get a reasonable return for Dozier and sit back, knowing it's just a matter of time before Buxton and Sano bust out and end my nightmare. Sigh.

[caninatl04]

 

Wut?

 

He's been a number 2 for over a year now. 

 

I really don't get what people are typing about Gibson on these threads.

Gibson is having a wonderful year.  I was merely suggesting that a contending team could use him as there fourth starter

[Linus]

The other option is to take one more year of arbitration then if he continues like extend him the QO and maybe get another year or draft pick

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The other option is to take one more year of arbitration then if he continues like extend him the QO and maybe get another year or draft pick

Yup. And with the recent market, you might have a fair shot at Gibson accepting the QO and getting him back on that one-year deal for 2020.

 

(But on the flip side, if the market keeps his deal below $50 mil, the draft pick if he signs elsewhere would probably only be a ~75th pick rather than ~35th.)

[Vanimal46]

The other option is to take one more year of arbitration then if he continues like extend him the QO and maybe get another year or draft pick

This would be my preference over a 3-4 year extension right now. I believe in his game and the changes he's made. It looks sustainable through his early 30's just like Charlie Morton.

 

The Twins have the luxury of one more arbitration year with him. He's at $4.5 million now, and with the wins and losses not going his way, he'll be pretty cheap again for 2019. Probably in the $8-9 million range?

 

There's nothing wrong with taking this one year at a time and seeing what happens. If he's still awesome all the way through 2019, the Twins have a great problem to deal with.

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, unless he takes a discount, IMO, you have to go year to year if you keep him. Pitchers get hurt at this age.....

 

If I'm him, I turn down the QO if healthy and still a number 2 or 3.....because someone will give him 4-6 years and a lot of money at that point.