Twins stuff from around the Web (Fangraphs, Twitter, Athletic, non-local news sites, etc)

[Mike Sixel]

Carl Pastashio
1:14 Can we start dreaming that Alex Kirilloff will pull a Juan Soto?

 

Kiley McDaniel
1:14 Wouldn't plan on a Juan Soto happening again any time soon

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-7-25-18/

[Mike Sixel]

Brent Rooker, LF/1B, Minnesota Twins (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 23   Org Rank: 10   FV: 45
Line: 4-for-5, 2B, HR, BB

 

 

Notes
I’ve been clear about my distaste for righty-righty college first-base types because, other than Paul Goldschhmidt, Rhys Hoskins, and Erik Karros, those types of players haven’t yielded big-league value this century. Should Rooker’s .270/.335/.517 line at Double-A this year quell concerns about him as an individual? He’s striking out at a nearly 30% clip as a 23-year-old, and my scout sources regard his breaking-ball recognition as problematic. His performance is encouraging but not so dominant that I’m all in on him as a prospect. Outcomes for prospects like Rooker are binary: they either hit enough to play every day or they don’t and they’re fringe 40-man guys.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-7-25-18/

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

In an article about what sellers' strategies should be:

 

"One top prospect" candidates
Teams: Mets, Pirates, Reds, Twins

The Pirates, Reds, and Twins all have strong farm systems and promising young talent on their big-league rosters already. They're best positioned to take a shot at a high-end talent. Also, those are three teams that can't afford stars on the open market. They have to grow their own stars, so go after those elite prospects at the trade deadline, even if it means getting fewer players in return.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/selling-at-the-mlb-trade-deadline-who-should-aim-for-a-mejia-and-who-should-target-a-big-package/

 

I don't think the Twins are in that spot for next year.  Assuming Santana is not picked up, we have less than $30M in 2019 contracts (Reed, Castro, Pineda, Rodney).  Assuming maybe $45M to $50M in arbitration and pre-arb deals, we'll be at least $40M under this year's payroll (which is only $7M more than 2011--$120M is not the ceiling).  We could absolutely be players for anyone we wanted on the open market.

 

My (admittedly unlikely) dream?  Meet with Machado, and give him a 6 year, $240M offer that expires when he walks out the door.  Gives him better AAV than he's expecting, plus the chance to get another big contract after his age 32 season.  We move him back to third, and have a top 3 of Rosario, Machado, and Escobar.  It strengthens us considerably for our Romero/Gonsalves/Rooker/Kiriloff/Lewis wave, with Wade/Arraez/Graterol/Baddoo/Larnach/Rortvedt as cheap depth/trade chips to go for titles as soon as 2020.  And all of this is without mentioning Berrios, Polanco, Kepler, Buxton, or Sano.

[jkcarew]

 

Carl Pastashio
1:14 Can we start dreaming that Alex Kirilloff will pull a Juan Soto?

 

Kiley McDaniel
1:14 Wouldn't plan on a Juan Soto happening again any time soon

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-7-25-18/

I'll take Juan Soto performance by his year 22 season.

[Monkeypaws]

 

I'll take Juan Soto performance by his year 22 season.

Wow, never heard of Soto until today. What aggressive promotion!

 

39 games from A, A+, AA to the majors. 19 years old.

 

Well, Kirilloff seems to shred wherever he goes, so he'd be a good candidate to rush. 

 

 

[jkcarew]

 

Fangraph notes regarding Rooker:

 

...distaste for righty-righty college first-base types because, other than Paul Goldschhmidt, Rhys Hoskins, and Erik Karros, those types of players haven’t yielded big-league value this century. 

 

Outcomes for prospects like Rooker are binary: they either hit enough to play every day or they don’t and they’re fringe 40-man guys.

IMO, the first comment above is meaningless and represent a type of increasingly-common occurrence resulting from the modern phenomenon of people running statistical filters 24x7 for a living.  It's an interesting observation, but doesn't even hint at why the right-handed, or the college-playing 1B 'type' would be at a disadvantage relative to all the other first-base 'types' out there.  Exactly the same as saying "because, other than the small number of guys that were good, nobody was good".

 

I agree with the second...and that statement is pretty true of all corner guys with marginal defensive skill and speed.

 

FWIW, I'm also cautious on Rooker, having to do primarily with his K rate (and yes...he's going to have to be significantly above average offensively to have value as he's more than likely a 1B/DH in the majors.)

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Gonsalves was what... a fifth rounder? I’d say that draft pick was tremendous so far.

His upside is just fine. There are plenty of instances of guys that “lacked upside” that turned in cy young candidates (not that that’s what I’m predicting here)

He was drafted quite a bit lower than projections for 'character' reasons. He was generally considered 1-2 round talent. He had upside.

 

but yes, tremendous pick.

[drivlikejehu]

 

IMO, the first comment above is meaningless and represent a type of increasingly-common occurrence resulting from the modern phenomenon of people running statistical filters 24x7 for a living.  It's an interesting observation, but doesn't even hint at why the right-handed, or the college-playing 1B 'type' would be at a disadvantage relative to all the other first-base 'types' out there.  Exactly the same as saying "because, other than the small number of guys that were good, nobody was good".

 

I agree with the second...and that statement is pretty true of all corner guys with marginal defensive skill and speed.

 

FWIW, I'm also cautious on Rooker, having to do primarily with his K rate (and yes...he's going to have to be significantly above average offensively to have value as he's more than likely a 1B/DH in the majors.)

 

Well actually there is at least a partial reason: left-handed hitters more often have a favorable matchup in terms of pitcher handedness.

[nater79a]

Morosi throws out the idea that maybe the Brewers would bite on bigger deal including Gibson.

Thoughts?

 

 

 

[amjgt]

Morosi throws out the idea that maybe the Brewers would bite on bigger deal including Gibson.

Thoughts?

 

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1022207702196342784

Unless you count Peralta as still being in their farm system, the cupboard looks pretty darn bare.

[Cap'n Piranha]

IMO, the first comment above is meaningless and represent a type of increasingly-common occurrence resulting from the modern phenomenon of people running statistical filters 24x7 for a living. It's an interesting observation, but doesn't even hint at why the right-handed, or the college-playing 1B 'type' would be at a disadvantage relative to all the other first-base 'types' out there. Exactly the same as saying "because, other than the small number of guys that were good, nobody was good".

 

I agree with the second...and that statement is pretty true of all corner guys with marginal defensive skill and speed.

 

FWIW, I'm also cautious on Rooker, having to do primarily with his K rate (and yes...he's going to have to be significantly above average offensively to have value as he's more than likely a 1B/DH in the majors.)

First comment is not meaningless, it refers to the reduced margin of error for college first basemen. Every player in the majors was (barring a stacked HS team) the best, most athletic player in their high school team, and probably played shortstop.

 

College first basemen aren’t at first because they’re not athletic, it’s because everyone else is more athletic already. That only intesifies once they hit the majors, so if they’re coming in with no lesser defensive position as a fallback, they HAVE to hit.

 

Think about Buxton. Even with his offensive struggles, when healthy his floor is defensive specialist fourth outfielder/pinch runner—he’ll be on a roster. Now imagine he’s not fast enough or athletic enough to play anywhere but first base; Buxton struggles to stick in AAA, let alone MLB.

 

That’s the problem with drafting a college first basemen; you better be convinced they are a future above average MLB hitter, otherwise it’s a completely wasted pick.

[jkcarew]

First comment is not meaningless, it refers to the reduced margin of error for college first basemen. Every player in the majors was (barring a stacked HS team) the best, most athletic player in their high school team, and probably played shortstop.

College first basemen aren’t at first because they’re not athletic, it’s because everyone else is more athletic already. That only intesifies once they hit the majors, so if they’re coming in with no lesser defensive position as a fallback, they HAVE to hit.

Think about Buxton. Even with his offensive struggles, when healthy his floor is defensive specialist fourth outfielder/pinch runner—he’ll be on a roster. Now imagine he’s not fast enough or athletic enough to play anywhere but first base; Buxton struggles to stick in AAA, let alone MLB.

That’s the problem with drafting a college first basemen; you better be convinced they are a future above average MLB hitter, otherwise it’s a completely wasted pick.

Agreed. But opposed to a player that didn’t go the college route and is playing 1B in high-A or AA? They’re the ‘least athletic’ at their levels too. What is the disadvantage that the first base ‘type’ coming out of the SEC or PAC 12 has relative to that player? Does Lewis Diaz have a better chance than Rooker because he didn’t play 1B in college? College has nothing to do with it...and right-handedness has little to do with it. We already know first-basemen have to hit really really good...and the analyst’s second comment serves to make that point.

[nicksaviking]

Notes

I’ve been clear about my distaste for righty-righty college first-base types because, other than Paul Goldschhmidt, Rhys Hoskins, and Erik Karros, those types of players haven’t yielded big-league value this century. [/url]

 

I agree with the second...and that statement is pretty true of all corner guys with marginal defensive skill and speed.

 

FWIW, I'm also cautious on Rooker, having to do primarily with his K rate (and yes...he's going to have to be significantly above average offensively to have value as he's more than likely a 1B/DH in the majors.)

I don't blame anyone for putting a skeptical eye to Rooker, but actuallly that part about the RH college bats seemed to be cherry picking and a mischaracterization. That complaint holds less water as hardly any RH college bats end up in the big leagues as firstbase largely dominated by lefties, he excludes all HS and foreign born 1B types as if playing college ball is a detriment for some reason, and Rooker also plays the outfield.

 

He's excluding tons of available comps by intentionally and unnecessarily limiting his search perimeters.

[jkcarew]

I don't blame anyone for putting a skeptical eye to Rooker, but actuallly that part about the RH college bats seemed to be cherry picking and a mischaracterization. That complaint holds less water as hardly any RH college bats end up in the big leagues as it's largely dominated by lefties, he excludes all HS and foreign born 1B types as if playing college ball is a detriment for some reason, and Rooker also plays the outfield.

He's excluding tons of available comps by intentionally and unnecessarily limiting his search perimeters.

Exactly my take on the comment. Not a big deal, just not adding anything meaningful or relevant...which is easy to do when answering questions spontaneously. And it sounds like we both agree with the conclusion of his take on Rooker, which is ‘maybe’.

[redstorm]

It's behind a paywall, but it is absolutely worth the read if you subscribe to The Athletic. An oral history of game 7 of the 1991 World Series, many former Twins and Braves players/coaches are quoted.

 

 

https://theathletic.com/440716/2018/07/26/jack-morris-twins-braves-game-7-1991-world-series-oral-history/

[Mike Sixel]

He sort of answered.....

mike sixel
1:06 Love your series on killers.....Some Twins fans think the team should keep Escobar, and offer him a QO (they have almost no payroll committed next year).....18MM for Escobar?

 

Jay Jaffe
1:09 Thank you! It's a fun one to write and I'm glad it's been well-received. Escobar doesn't have a very long track record of stellar  play, but I think it's tough to go too far wrong in issuing a QO. On the other hand, it's a dick move by a team if they don't intend to keep him, because as we've seen in recent years, it can crush a mid-level guy's market.

in short, Minnesota is a land of many contrasts, and I'd do the humane thing and trade Escobar at the deadline, then re-evaluate how much I want him back after the season ends.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-7-26-18/

[dbminn]

 

He sort of answered.....

mike sixel
1:06 Love your series on killers.....Some Twins fans think the team should keep Escobar, and offer him a QO (they have almost no payroll committed next year).....18MM for Escobar?

 

Jay Jaffe
1:09 Thank you! It's a fun one to write and I'm glad it's been well-received. Escobar doesn't have a very long track record of stellar  play, but I think it's tough to go too far wrong in issuing a QO. On the other hand, it's a dick move by a team if they don't intend to keep him, because as we've seen in recent years, it can crush a mid-level guy's market.

in short, Minnesota is a land of many contrasts, and I'd do the humane thing and trade Escobar at the deadline, then re-evaluate how much I want him back after the season ends.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-7-26-18/

 

Totally agree about the "killers" series. Also, a great question for Jaffe and a thoughtful answer. 

[dbminn]

MLB has posted their updated prospect list, including recent draft picks. Kirilloff up to #31, Lewis reaches the top ten and Graterol appears for the first time. 

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW gets to the point rather quickly....

 

mike sixel
1:26 Some Twins' fans I interact with think the team should sign Escobar to a QO if they can't extend him. Thoughts on 18MM for Eduardo Escobar? Admittedly, they have very little payroll committed for next year....but, 18MM?

 

Keith Law
1:27 Hardest of passes.

[Ben Noble]

 

He sort of answered.....

mike sixel
1:06 Love your series on killers.....Some Twins fans think the team should keep Escobar, and offer him a QO (they have almost no payroll committed next year).....18MM for Escobar?

 

Jay Jaffe
1:09 Thank you! It's a fun one to write and I'm glad it's been well-received. Escobar doesn't have a very long track record of stellar  play, but I think it's tough to go too far wrong in issuing a QO. On the other hand, it's a dick move by a team if they don't intend to keep him, because as we've seen in recent years, it can crush a mid-level guy's market.

in short, Minnesota is a land of many contrasts, and I'd do the humane thing and trade Escobar at the deadline, then re-evaluate how much I want him back after the season ends.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-7-26-18/

 

He states that he would "trade Escobar at the deadline." But he also acknowledges that there are totally valid arguments for keeping him and offering the QO.

 

I've appreciated the debate on these boards as far as what to do with Escobar, and I myself flip flop on it. It's nice to hear an informed writer with a national perspective and no emotional connection to the team or Escobar basically say that he could reasonably go either way.

[Dman]

 

He sort of answered.....

mike sixel
1:06 Love your series on killers.....Some Twins fans think the team should keep Escobar, and offer him a QO (they have almost no payroll committed next year).....18MM for Escobar?

 

Jay Jaffe
1:09 Thank you! It's a fun one to write and I'm glad it's been well-received. Escobar doesn't have a very long track record of stellar  play, but I think it's tough to go too far wrong in issuing a QO. On the other hand, it's a dick move by a team if they don't intend to keep him, because as we've seen in recent years, it can crush a mid-level guy's market.

in short, Minnesota is a land of many contrasts, and I'd do the humane thing and trade Escobar at the deadline, then re-evaluate how much I want him back after the season ends.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-7-26-18/

 

I agree with Jay.  Trade him at the deadline then evaluate all your options for constructing the team in 2019 and if you want to offer him a contract he can't refuse then go ahead and do that.  If you want to allocate that money to other areas then do that.  I don't think the QO is a good solution for either party.

 

[amjgt]

If you were Escobar and you thought you would get 3/35 as a free agent, would you accept 1/18?

 

Where's the breaking point?

[Vanimal46]

If you were Escobar and you thought you would get 3/35 as a free agent, would you accept 1/18?

 

Where's the breaking point?

I'd take $18 million for one year and believe in myself enough to get another good contract after the 2019 season.

[Loosey]

I wish I lived in a world where someone would give me $18M and I could say them doing that is a dick move. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If you were Escobar and you thought you would get 3/35 as a free agent, would you accept 1/18?

 

Where's the breaking point?

 

He would be wise to take the QO... or end up getting the Lynn treatment.

[nicksaviking]

 

If you were Escobar and you thought you would get 3/35 as a free agent, would you accept 1/18?

 

Where's the breaking point?

 

I'm not sure, but after watching last year's free agent class, I'd think 3/35 is way higher than he'd get.

 

Mike Moustakas would be jealous. Eduardo Nunez got 2 years $8M. Neil Walker who OPS'd .801 in the final year of an 8 year stretch that could hardly be more consistent had to take a minor league deal. 

 

Plus, in free agency he's probably going to have to wait around all winter until whenever Manny Machado decides to sign because he and his agent would most likely plan on selling him as a similarly versatile back-up plan.

 

I think Escobar would accept the QO as soon as the words came out of the Twins mouth. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

[Vanimal46]

I think Escobar would accept the QO as soon as the words came out of the Twins mouth. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

As he should if his representation is realistic with him. He won't be a highly sought-after FA even if Twins fans think he's awesome.

[Mike Sixel]

Who is going to sign Escobar if they have to give up a draft pick?

 

Why is he turning down as much in 1 year, as he'd make in 2-3 years?

 

Take the 18MM, then sign another contract after that. No brainer, imo.

[nicksaviking]

 

Who is going to sign Escobar if they have to give up a draft pick?

 

Why is he turning down as much in 1 year, as he'd make in 2-3 years?

 

Take the 18MM, then sign another contract after that. No brainer, imo.

 

And all this makes it sound like a terrible idea for the Twins to do it. However, if the Twins think he'll get a multi year deal on the free agent market but they only want to give him one year, and if the Twins think that he's still a better option than what's available to them in free agency or within the organization, then there's no reason not to offer it in my opinion. The Twins can't spend all their available payroll budget next year even if they wanted to.

 

So I agree with Jaffe, not Klaw.

 

But I'd still look to trade him first and foremost.

[Dman]

The QO is last resort option though, right?  If kept they would want to work out a contract.  If they couldn't get a contract worked and did the QO then that would be a bit of dick move wouldn't it?  The Twins wouldn't have offered Esco what he felt he was worth on the market so lose him if he rejects the QO.