Article: 2018 Twins Midseason Top Prospect List: 1-5

[jkcarew]

Really aggressive on Graterol, but I don't think there's much arguing the upside.  His video does look nice...looks strong and athletic, and obviously the velocity.

 

The risk and distance to the major leagues has him lower, IMO.  I'm high on him, but not quite that excited yet.  One thing that would help (in terms of how I look at him at this point in time) is if we were seeing him handle a realistic workload.  And two years removed from the surgery, we're not seeing that yet.   I'm not suggesting this is, in and of itself, an indication of an issue...I'm saying it's tough to get a good sense of his trajectory when he's sitting at one season of 40 innings and another (this season) where he's sitting at 50 innings in the middle of July.   I imagine by next year (hopefully) we'll start seeing him handling a regular workload and, at the same time, facing tougher competition.

[ThejacKmp]

 

FG has Gore, McKay and Wright ranked higher in their updated prospect list, and they've seen them and talked to scouts across the leagues to do those updates. Greene has been better as the year has gone on, but is ranked lower than Lewis on their update.

 

You think that's a preference for pitching over hitting? Or perhaps the potential for Lewis to end up in the OF?

[Seth Stohs]

 

I love the potential of Lewis, Graterol, and Kiriloff and realize we have to be patient, but we have to find out soon what we have in Gonsalves and Gordon in preparation for 2019. And I'm not thinking September. I'm thinking mid to late July.

 

While Gordon and Gonsalves are top prospects and both are at AAA, there isn't necessarily a rush to get them to the big leagues by September, for sure not by July. That said, I think we'll see them in September, and if we do, it doesn't have to be in preparation for 2019. 

 

Gonsalves needs to work on control/command. Gordon's got to work on defense and still some hitting. Gonsalves has two option years remaining. Gordon has three option years remaining. So yes, it will be good to get them some big league experience, but what they show in MLB this year, whether it is a month or two, shouldn't give anyone some sort of final answer on them.

[Thrylos]

 

Vargas was in A+ from late July - end of season 2012, he was 22 nearly his whole time there. 

 

Kiriloff started at A+ as a 20.5 year old. That's a year and a half age difference, not as insignificant as you are trying to make it seem.  

 

Kiriloff also missed the entire 2017 season, making the numbers is he putting up all the more impressive. 

 

I am talking about A, Midwest League, not A+, Florida State League.

 

Again, my concern with him is not his numbers, but his fielding...

 

Edited July 13, 2018 by Thrylos

[Seth Stohs]

 

"Over the past two weeks, we have been counting down our Top 40 Midseason Minnesota Twins Prospect Rankings."

 

If we have been counting down, we should be moving toward the bottom, yet here we are, concluding the list at the top.    Weird language this idiomatic English...

 

Counting up? :-) 

[Mike Sixel]

 

You think that's a preference for pitching over hitting? Or perhaps the potential for Lewis to end up in the OF?

 

Definitely not a preference for pitching, having read them the last few years. They are all bunched up in about the same spot, my only point is that I don't get the opinion that somehow they made the right choice for sure or not at this point.....nothing more or less.

[Seth Stohs]

 

How are Graterol's mechanics? Is he likely to blow out his arm again, like everybody worried about with Liriano?

 

(Not that anybody can truly predict TJ.)

 

I'm not an expert on pitcher mechanics, but when I watch the above video, or the one I posted on twitter when I saw him pitch, it's' smooth. In theory, that's a good thing. But, it's' also not natural to throw something 101 mph, so always a risk. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I like these five.  There is a real separation between them and the other 35 in my reading.  What concerns me is the ability of the Twins to get them to the big leagues with success.  It was not long ago we had Sano, Buxton, Berrios in that top slot position and so far we have succeeded with one of them.  

 

I think we need a review of the system that is in place and start evaluating whether it is as good as we need. 

 

Explain what you mean by 'we need a review of the system that is in place"? 

 

For evaluation, or for the Twins? 

 

I know that part of Jeff Pickler's job description is a liason between development and the big leagues and working through that process. I don't 'know what that involves completely, but adding a coach and putting that in the job description certainly is a positive.

 

And, I don't 'know if it's' fair to say that Sano hasn't' panned out. I mean, he's' had two really good seasons out of 3 1/2 including a very deserving all star nod last year. We can''t' forget that as part of his story.

 

And, while Buxton hasn't become what we thought offensively, he's been everythign we could want defensively. 

 

I still believe both will be long-time productive big leaguers again soon. 

 

And also, ,with any prospect in baseball, whether he's a #1 overall prospect, a #11 overall prospect or #101 prospect... you never know. It's far from a perfect science, even with the advanced analytics. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Really aggressive on Graterol, but I don't think there's much arguing the upside.  His video does look nice...looks strong and athletic, and obviously the velocity.

 

The risk and distance to the major leagues has him lower, IMO.  I'm high on him, but not quite that excited yet.  One thing that would help (in terms of how I look at him at this point in time) is if we were seeing him handle a realistic workload.  And two years removed from the surgery, we're not seeing that yet.   I'm not suggesting this is, in and of itself, an indication of an issue...I'm saying it's tough to get a good sense of his trajectory when he's sitting at one season of 40 innings and another (this season) where he's sitting at 50 innings in the middle of July.   I imagine by next year (hopefully) we'll start seeing him handling a regular workload and, at the same time, facing tougher competition.

 

I've had people tell me that he could be up next summer... the concern is building him up and getting him innings. But his stuff is that good, and he's so strong in his lower half. He could be a guy that eventually builds into being able to eat a lot of innings because of his strength. Obviously we'll see how it plays out, but his 'distance from the big leagues' may not be as far as we'd normally think. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Definitely not a preference for pitching, having read them the last few years. They are all bunched up in about the same spot, my only point is that I don't get the opinion that somehow they made the right choice for sure or not at this point.....nothing more or less.

 

Oh clearly way too early to really make that call. But with the underslot, it seems like Lewis has had the fastest start out of all of them (obviously it's how you finish, see Buxton, Byron).

[ThejacKmp]

 

I think that Gonzalves, Gordon, and Kiriloff are overrated.

 

My concern with Kirilloff is that he is a DH/1B type.  This season he has proven that he can hit in the Midwest League.  But even Kennys Vargas at about the same age (21 vs 20) hit .318/.419/.610 in that League.  His arm is not strong at all.  I saw him at Spring training triple bounce one throw from RF to 1B and double bounce 2.  That is Ben Revere arm.  Also from what I have seen, his range is Chris Parmelee-like out there.  He might be an OF, he might not.

 

Gordon seems to start hot every season and then either June or July the wheels fall off.  My take is that it is a matter of conditioning and working out getting some muscle and stamina, esp. in the off-season.  He is 150 lbs soaking wet.  He has to prove that he has the motivation and will power to be a professional baseball player and spend the off-season like one.

 

Gonzalves is a lot like Duffey (best pitch curveball) but his fastball and control are not as good as Duffey's.  Duffey had half a good season before he was figured out in the bigs.  Is Gonsalves fixable?  Could be.  He still is young.  However, there is no way that he should be the number 5 prospect in this system.  39:60 BB:K ratio in AAA projects organizational depth...   His ceiling is number 5 starter/long man at this point

 Yeah, they're prospects. They might not turn out. But they haven't done anything to dissuade us yet.

 

Kiriloff seems likely to stick in the OF for at least the first part of his career. That may be LF over RF if his arm doesn't come back. Your spring training story is nice but he was just back from Tommy John, I don't give it much credence. Kyle Schwarber figured out a way to play OF and Kiriloff is a much better athlete. He’s also hitting like crazy every step of the way and bounced back from a major injury like nothing. And he’s 20. After missing a year. Don’t rain on this parade just to be negative.

 

Gordon is only 22 in AAA. He will get stronger and more used to the demands of professional ball. The calls to bring him to MLB were premature (I said it at the time, not backtracking here) but he's got plenty of time. I've never heard anything to question his work ethic so I'm confident it won't be lack of strength that gets him. His struggles this year may just be the jump to AAA.

 

Gonsalves is not Duffey, that’s your weird contention. He has much higher K rates and a better ERA every step of the way up the ladder. He also isn’t a two pitch pitcher like Duffey. No one is trying to teach him a third pitch . . . because he has four (fastball, changeup, slider, curve). Not sure why you think that a curve is his best pitch. Everything I read said his change is his best pitch, followed by his fastball and an “improving curve”. Finally, the prospect rankers agree. Tyler Duffey never sniffed top 100 lists (or was close) during his minor league career and Gonslaves has been on the back end of that list for the past two years. You can’t just make comparisons willy-nilly, they need to make sense.

 

Again, like with Gordon, Gonsalves is 23 in AAA after dominating all of the lower minors. He’s had some adjustments this year to AAA and likely will when he makes the majors. But that K rate has remained strong in AAA and the walk rate is something that is abnormal. I don’t think he’s lost his command. Is he an ace? No. But his ceiling is not 5th starter, that makes me think you don’t understand what a ceiling is. His ceiling is likely a good #3. That’s not bad for a top 5 prospect in AAA.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Definitely not a preference for pitching, having read them the last few years. They are all bunched up in about the same spot, my only point is that I don't get the opinion that somehow they made the right choice for sure or not at this point.....nothing more or less.

 

It's hard to define "right choice." Does that mean the best choice that could be made given the available information at the time, or the best choice with the benefit of many years of hindsight? Either way it's a problematic exercise. 

 

I think the early returns do offer some support for the Twins' decision. They clearly preferred the reduced injury risk of a position player, with the trade off being that they might miss out on slightly higher upside (Greene, Gore) or more immediate help (McKay, Wright). 

 

The early returns are fairly consistent with expectations across the board. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

I think that Gonzalves, Gordon, and Kiriloff are overrated.

 

My concern with Kirilloff is that he is a DH/1B type.  This season he has proven that he can hit in the Midwest League.  But even Kennys Vargas at about the same age (21 vs 20) hit .318/.419/.610 in that League.  His arm is not strong at all.  I saw him at Spring training triple bounce one throw from RF to 1B and double bounce 2.  That is Ben Revere arm.  Also from what I have seen, his range is Chris Parmelee-like out there.  He might be an OF, he might not.

 

...

 

Gonzalves is a lot like Duffey (best pitch curveball) but his fastball and control are not as good as Duffey's. 

Just want to set the record straight a little here, lest anyone take these highly subjective and questionable "scouting reports" as gospel.

Kirilloff was coming back from an entire season lost to elbow surgery this spring. Plenty common for a guy to experience some initial hiccups in the wake of such an ordeal. Claiming he has a "Ben Revere arm" on the basis of such anecdotal evidence is ridiculous. His arm ain't great but drawing comparisons to one of the worst OF throwers in franchise history is an exaggeration deserving of dismissal. FWIW, BA rates Kirilloff's arm as a 50 on the 20-80 scale — basically average. 

 

Gonsalves' curveball is most definitely not his best pitch. I don't even know where you'd come up with that. His change is widely viewed as his best pitch and his curve is in fact generally considered the weak link in his repertoire. In a Strib profile on him this past spring it was noted that "some scouts believe (his curveball) might prevent him from being a true staff ace" and Gonsalves himself noted that "I’ve read a lot of bad stuff about my curveball. I know it needs work.”

[Thrylos]

 

 

But his ceiling is not 5th starter, that makes me think you don’t understand what a ceiling is. His ceiling is likely a good #3. That’s not bad for a top 5 prospect in AAA.

 

I think that the issue here is that your #3 might be my #5.  I always refer to a #X starter in a championship level team, not the average baseball team.  And I don't see Gonsalves as a #3 starter in a champion.  That is Jose Berrios territory...

[108Stitches]

 

I'm not an expert on pitcher mechanics, but when I watch the above video, or the one I posted on twitter when I saw him pitch, it's' smooth. In theory, that's a good thing. But, it's' also not natural to throw something 101 mph, so always a risk. 

This. It is NOT natural for a still growing person to throw that hard.The growth plates and ligaments are still tender. In nearly every single case of young flamethrowers they will need TJ eventually. 

[alarp33]

 

I am talking about A, Midwest League, not A+, Florida State League.

 

Again, my concern with him is not his numbers, but his fielding...

 

Yes typo on my end. Vargas was 22 in A, Midwest league, not A+ Florida State League.  Kiriloff is now 20, in A+

 

If you don't have issues with his bat, why the asinine comparison to Vargas and his season in A ball?

[nater79a]

Would it be possible to get an additional post showing each of Tom's, Seth's and Cody's individual top 40 lists so we can do a little side-by-side comparison?  

Could piece it together, I guess, based on the ranking below the capsules but that seems a little cumbersome for 40 slots.

 

Always find it fun and interesting to see how you guys rank the players differently.

[Ben Noble]

 

I saw Baseball Prospectus put out their Top 50 prospects and four made it...

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/41327/2018-prospects-the-midseason-top-50/

 

It's free, so be sure to click the link to see the order and the comments. But the four included are Lewis, Gordon, Kirilloff and Graterol... in that order.  

 

Also worth noting that they slotted Graterol just one spot behind Hunter Greene...

[ThejacKmp]

 

I think that the issue here is that your #3 might be my #5.  I always refer to a #X starter in a championship level team, not the average baseball team.  And I don't see Gonsalves as a #3 starter in a champion.  That is Jose Berrios territory...

 

So I could just talk about Verlander as a #2 starter (after all, I judge pitchers on a Hall of Fame standard and he’s no Walter Johnson or Greg Maddux) and that would be valid?

 

Also, what’s a championship team? The Yankees might win a Championship this year with a pretty ragged starting rotation because their lineup is so good. The Twins won championships with Scott Erickson and Les Straker as their #3s. Your system is bogus because it adds another variable in Championship that applies to teams, not starting rotations.

 

For better or for worse, there’s a generally understood concept when we talk about a #1 vs a #2 vs. a #4. You can argue within that context but if you’re going to use a totally separate system, perhaps it’d be good to translate it to the accepted one? I don’t write our ERAs in Base 8 because “That’s the way I see numbers” because that would be confusing. I go with the common definition.

 

I also have a hard time granting credence to your judgements of pitchers place in a Championship Rotation because you compared Gonsalves to Tyler Duffey. Those two are not at all alike.

Edited July 13, 2018 by ThejacKmp

[ThejacKmp]

 

This. It is NOT natural for a still growing person to throw that hard.The growth plates and ligaments are still tender. In nearly every single case of young flamethrowers they will need TJ eventually. 

 

To be fair, we don't know he's still growing. A kid I knew was done growing in 8th grade. I grew until I was out of college (as did Joe Mauer). Graterol is 6-1 and 180 at age 19 and might just be done growing.

 

I also have a hard time with the hyperbole. Many young flamethrowers never need Tommy John.

[Thrylos]

 

. I grew until I was out of college (as did Joe Mauer)

 

Reality check re: Mauer and college

[ThejacKmp]

 

Reality check re: Mauer and college

 

Ha ha correct. Yeah, he grew until he was after-college age. That would be more accurate.

[markos]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/broadcasters-view-who-have-been-the-top-players-in-the-midwest-league/

 

This is a fun article if you want to read some gushing praise of Lewis and Kiriloff from opposing Midwest League broadcasters.

[Tom Froemming]

I try to keep in mind that the higher up a player goes, the more and better information we have on them, and that also means there are more opportunities to poke holes in their game.

 

When you take a look at some of the guys who've made it as high as Triple A, you see players who've already had their biggest weaknesses start to get exposed. That just doesn't happen yet while they're at the lower levels. But it's not like anything done below Double A should be ignored, or that the guys at the higher levels are never going to get over those issues that have arisen, so it's difficult to weight those kinds of things.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Would it be possible to get an additional post showing each of Tom's, Seth's and Cody's individual top 40 lists so we can do a little side-by-side comparison?  

Could piece it together, I guess, based on the ranking below the capsules but that seems a little cumbersome for 40 slots.

 

Always find it fun and interesting to see how you guys rank the players differently.

 

I may reveal my top 50 on YouTube and then share it in the forums here at some point, maybe not. I don't really feel like it needs its own post here since I feel really good a bout how this series went and, to be honest, I always look back at the consolidated lists and think they're actually better than my own.

 

But for now I will give you the names on my personal top 50 that did not make the cut on the consolidated list:

 

37. Jovani Moran

38. Zander Wiel

39. Charlie Barnes 

42. Tyler Benninghoff

44. Andrew Vasquez

45. Carlos Aguiar

46. David Banuelos

47. Michael Montero

48. Tom Hackimer

49. Alberoni Nunez

50. Trey Cabbage

 

Misael Urbina hadn't signed when I compiled these rankings. I think I'd have felt comfortable putting him at No. 16.

[Shaitan]

 

I like these five.  There is a real separation between them and the other 35 in my reading.  What concerns me is the ability of the Twins to get them to the big leagues with success.  It was not long ago we had Sano, Buxton, Berrios in that top slot position and so far we have succeeded with one of them.  

 

I think we need a review of the system that is in place and start evaluating whether it is as good as we need. 

 

I'm frustrated with Buxton and Sano right now too, but seeing you put it in numbers (1 of 3) makes it seem okay, in a sense. Most prospects doing turn out.

 

That said, my real reason for commenting is this. I think the Twins already did that review of the system you're speaking of (and Seth has a comment detailing it).

 

All three names you mention debuted under Terry Ryan before June 2016. He has since been let go and replaced due to a publicly acknowledged "total system failure."

 

These things take time.

[nater79a]

 

I may reveal my top 50 on YouTube and then share it in the forums here at some point, maybe not. I don't really feel like it needs its own post here since I feel really good a bout how this series went and, to be honest, I always look back at the consolidated lists and think they're actually better than my own.

 

But for now I will give you the names on my personal top 50 that did not make the cut on the consolidated list:

 

37. Jovani Moran

38. Zander Wiel

39. Charlie Barnes 

42. Tyler Benninghoff

44. Andrew Vasquez

45. Carlos Aguiar

46. David Banuelos

47. Michael Montero

48. Tom Hackimer

49. Alberoni Nunez

50. Trey Cabbage

 

Misael Urbina hadn't signed when I compiled these rankings. I think I'd have felt comfortable putting him at No. 16.

 

Thanks, Tom!

 

Some nice names there.  Didn't realize Vasquez and Moran didn't make the consolidated cut. 

Those are a couple of exciting arms.

[Thrylos]

 

Just want to set the record straight a little here, lest anyone take these highly subjective and questionable "scouting reports" as gospel.

Kirilloff was coming back from an entire season lost to elbow surgery this spring. Plenty common for a guy to experience some initial hiccups in the wake of such an ordeal. Claiming he has a "Ben Revere arm" on the basis of such anecdotal evidence is ridiculous. His arm ain't great but drawing comparisons to one of the worst OF throwers in franchise history is an exaggeration deserving of dismissal. FWIW, BA rates Kirilloff's arm as a 50 on the 20-80 scale — basically average. 

 

Gonsalves' curveball is most definitely not his best pitch. I don't even know where you'd come up with that. His change is widely viewed as his best pitch and his curve is in fact generally considered the weak link in his repertoire. In a Strib profile on him this past spring it was noted that "some scouts believe (his curveball) might prevent him from being a true staff ace" and Gonsalves himself noted that "I’ve read a lot of bad stuff about my curveball. I know it needs work.”

 

Re: Kirilloff: I am claiming that he has a Ben Revere arm based on what I saw.  Nothing anecdotal about it.  100% fact that he was double and triple bouncing balls from right to first this ST.  As well as taking horrible routes.  Plenty of eye witnesses in the back fields.  Not sure if the arm improved since then.  Will find out next time I see video.   Got any evidence other than hearsay that he has an average arm?

 

Re: Gonsalves:  Mea cupla, I got lazy.  I should have clarified that like Duffy, whose best pitch is the curveball, Gonsalves has an average at best fastball and his best pitch is a secondary pitch (of course it is his change up.)   The problem is that, like Duffey, if you do not have an above average at least fast ball with good control and command, you will not survive in a major league rotation for long.  Maybe Duffey is not a good comparable because he is a  righty. Still they both have average to below average fastballs.  Matter of fact Gonsalves's fastball command worsened this season.

[jkcarew]

I've had people tell me that he could be up next summer... the concern is building him up and getting him innings. But his stuff is that good, and he's so strong in his lower half. He could be a guy that eventually builds into being able to eat a lot of innings because of his strength. Obviously we'll see how it plays out, but his 'distance from the big leagues' may not be as far as we'd normally think.

 

Pitching about 5 innings every 7 days. You would think they would want to change this very soon if they think he’ll be that accelerated. It’s exciting to think that the Twins could have a 20 year old starter. Can’t remember the last time that happened.

[goliath]

Re: Kirilloff's arm, again anecdotal, but I did see him one hop a throw to 3rd to throw out a player trying to tag up from second on a fly to moderately deep right field on 6/10/18.  The runner was the opposing team's catcher, but it was a nice throw, and the scout seating next to me was impressed.  So that throw looked average.