Article: Dozier’s Days Numbered, Then What?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

You'd think but Moustakas going to the Brewers may force Shaw to shift to 2B.

 

Whose left? Red Sox?

Red Sox or maybe Rockies? Moustakas trade really threw me

[Riverbrian]

 

Red Sox or maybe Rockies? Moustakas trade really threw me

 

It will be interesting to be able to compare what Dozier brings back and what Escobar brought back. 

 

Position Flexibility vs. the 2B only guy

Current Season numbers vs. Career season Numbers

 

 

[jorgenswest]

It will be interesting to be able to compare what Dozier brings back and what Escobar brought back. 

 

Position Flexibility vs. the 2B only guy

Current Season numbers vs. Career season Numbers

The Twins should have been in on the Phillies deal. I think Dozier would have been a better option for them.

[Doctor Wu]

 

You'd think but Moustakas going to the Brewers may force Shaw to shift to 2B. 

 

Whose left? Red Sox? 

From what I read today, that's what the Brewers are planning to do. Too bad. I had thought Milwaukee was the most likely landing place for Dozier. Now, I'm wondering if we'll end up having to unload him on a waiver deal  next month, if at all.

[Riverbrian]

 

The Twins should have been in on the Phillies deal. I think Dozier would have been a better option for them.

 

The position flexibility of Cabrera made him a better fit and that is probably why Escobar was the rumored guy to Philadelphia. 

 

The Phillies could use upgrades at both SS and 2B but perhaps more so at SS.

 

If I was the Phillies I wouldn't stop at Cabrera. I'd still be talking to teams about another infielder. 

[jorgenswest]

The position flexibility of Cabrera made him a better fit and that is probably why Escobar was the rumored guy to Philadelphia. 

 

The Phillies could use upgrades at both SS and 2B but perhaps more so at SS.

 

If I was the Phillies I wouldn't stop at Cabrera. I'd still be talking to teams about another infielder.

 

I am biased by watching several Mets games the last two years. I can’t imagine Cabrera anywhere other than 2B at this point. He has no lateral movement so it doesn’t work at 2B either but the shorter throw allows him to play deeper and gives him more time to go side to side.

 

You are right though. Hernandez is a 2B only. Cabrera played shortstop some last year (poorly according to metric). Awful metrics at 2B this year. Bad deal for Phillies but Dozier was not a fit.

[Dman]

Does anyone feel like it is Dozier and Duke to the Red Sox for someone higher up in their system?  They could use a true second baseman just for the defensive upgrade if nothing else and Dozier can also hit the ball in the seats which is nice to have come playoff time.

 

The Red Sox as we have heard ad nauseum don't have a left handed reliever so seems like Duke would be a good match there.  

 

I think the only reason Dozier and Duke haven't been traded yet is they are waiting for this series to end and then announce the trade.

 

Why else would Milwaukee have given up on Dozier unless the price was too high for them.  Some other team must have paid more in prospects than they were willing to.  I think the Red Sox are the team that will get Dozier.

Edited July 28, 2018 by Dman

[jorgenswest]

Back to then what...

 

I don’t think the Twins should plan on Gordon being ready opening day next year. I would hope for June 1 giving him two months to show that he has command of the AAA strike zone.

 

Assuming Dozier is moved, I would use Polanco at 2B and Adrianza at SS the last two months. I guess I would bring up Petit to back them up.

 

An out of the box move would be to play Rosario at 2B and add Wade to play LF.

[TheLeviathan]

It's looking harder to see a spot for Dozier out there.  He may be an August candidate, but I would be a bit surprised if he cleared waivers.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Dozier to Boston makes sense but you can't do it until Sunday afternoon. The middle infield then becomes Adrianza and Polanco this year and probably next while we wait to see if and when Gordon is ready. The UTL can be a vet we pick up; those guys aren't that hard to find. Even better, we sign Escobar back in the off season and he's a super utility guy who gets 500 ABs at 3B, DH, 2B and an occasional SS.

 

I actually kind of like this approach. Adrianza has played in 140 games over the last two years going into last night's game with a .258/.309/.377 slash line and a total of 2WAR. He's played like a solid MLB starting SS and the combo of Adrianza at SS and Polanco at 2B is a defensive upgrade over Polanco at SS and Dozier at 2B and a HUGH defensive upgrade over Escobar at SS and Dozier at 2B. We lose Dozier's power so there will be fewer solo HRs at low leverage moments but I'm willing to live with that.

 

I kind of hope that this is the plan.

why are you shouting at Hugh? What did Hugh do to you? Edited July 28, 2018 by Sconnie

[diehardtwinsfan]

Problem with Boston is that they don't have a good system. Both of those guys we got from Houston would be in their top 10. I don't think the return for Dozier would be all that good if Boston is the destination. Duke might make more sense going to Boston, but I'd hope there's a team with a deeper farm that's interested in Dozier.

[Dman]

 

Problem with Boston is that they don't have a good system. Both of those guys we got from Houston would be in their top 10. I don't think the return for Dozier would be all that good if Boston is the destination. Duke might make more sense going to Boston, but I'd hope there's a team with a deeper farm that's interested in Dozier.

 

How do you feel about Mata or Hernandez as the headliner and Flores or Northcut as the other piece?  We are talking just two months for Duke and Dozier.

[FlauerPauer]

I don't see Dozier going anywhere. I don't see much value coming back for him and unfortunately might have to bite the bullet here on this one. I wonder if they missed their chance by trying to wait out the Brewers...

[Dman]

 

I don't see Dozier going anywhere. I don't see much value coming back for him and unfortunately might have to bite the bullet here on this one. I wonder if they missed their chance by trying to wait out the Brewers...

 Yep the MLB site agrees you.  Their quote is below.

 

"Two prime Brian Dozier landing spots came off the board when the #Dbacks picked up Escobar and #Brewers traded for Moustakas. #RedSox have been mentioned as a possibility because of Pedroia's health, but Boston's focus remains the bullpen. Dozier to Boston "highly unlikely.''

 

I guess the FO just couldn't get a return they could live with.  Very surprised then that the Brewers went with Moustakas as his and Doziers stats were not that different and Dozier typically heats up about now and he actually plays a good second base which the Brewers could use.

 

Maybe the Twins thought they could get them to overpay.  Not sure what happened there but I have to believe they couldn't see eye to eye on Doziers value. 

 

Maybe something gets worked out yet but it seems a bit grim at this point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If the Twins think Dozier is going to test the market no matter what, we could make him a qualifying offer without too much risk. Then we either get a draft pick if/when he signs elsewhere, or we get an advantage in negotiations to bring him back for 2019 (by virtue of being the only club that wouldn't have to forfeit a pick to sign him). Obviously him changing his mind and taking the QO would be a risk too.

[drivlikejehu]

 

If the Twins think Dozier is going to test the market no matter what, we could make him a qualifying offer without too much risk. Then we either get a draft pick if/when he signs elsewhere, or we get an advantage in negotiations to bring him back for 2019 (by virtue of being the only club that wouldn't have to forfeit a pick to sign him). Obviously him changing his mind and taking the QO would be a risk too.

 

Unless Dozier goes nuts again, starting soon, there is no way the Twins would make a QO. He's going to be a relatively low-cost free agent signing . . . the Twins couldn't even get anything for him in his prime, his value right now is marginal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Unless Dozier goes nuts again, starting soon, there is no way the Twins would make a QO. He's going to be a relatively low-cost free agent signing . . . the Twins couldn't even get anything for him in his prime, his value right now is marginal.

Sure. I was coming from the premise that Dozier might be determined to hit the open market, maybe strengthened by his disapproval of yesterday's trade? As I noted, the risk would be him changing his mind, and that would be influenced by his finish.

[Mike Sixel]

 

With Escobar and Pressly gone, Dozier is a lock to be traded right?

 

why? Escobar has no starting position with Sano back.....and Pressley is a RP. 

 

Sure, I wouldn't be surprised if he is traded, but I don't see how trading those two players is punting this season like others do.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

why? Escobar has no starting position with Sano back.....and Pressley is a RP.

 

Sure, I wouldn't be surprised if he is traded, but I don't see how trading those two players is punting this season like others do.

I don’t see trading Dozier as punting either. Relief pitchers are fungible. Infield tandem of Polanco 2B Adrianza SS probably yields a better hitting and fielding combo than Dozier/Polanco. Added bonus, Adrianza covers more ground to help with Sano’s Lack of lateral mobility too.

 

Dozier can still provide some prospect assets and no way is he getting a QO anyways... trading him now is win/win

[yarnivek1972]

why? Escobar has no starting position with Sano back.....and Pressley is a RP.

 

Sure, I wouldn't be surprised if he is traded, but I don't see how trading those two players is punting this season like others do.

Sano is back BECAUSE Escobar was traded. Escobar wasn’t traded to make room. If all they wanted to do was make room they would have rid themselves of Morrison, not one of the most productive hitters on the team. Teams that are trying to win don’t trade their best players away. Other than the Twins (see 2001) of course.

[USAFChief]

I don’t see trading Dozier as punting either. Relief pitchers are fungible. Infield tandem of Polanco 2B Adrianza SS probably yields a better hitting and fielding combo than Dozier/Polanco. Added bonus, Adrianza covers more ground to help with Sano’s Lack of lateral mobility too.

 

Dozier can still provide some prospect assets and no way is he getting a QO anyways... trading him now is win/win

I dont think replacing Dozier with Adrianza will result in a more productive infield.

 

I dont think "relief pitchers are fungible" is accurate either, BTW.

[ashbury]

I dont think "relief pitchers are fungible" is accurate either, BTW.

It's probably not an accurate use of the economics terminology, but to me the idea that it gets across is that you'll less often see a snag when trying to deal/acquire an average reliever because of (say) handedness or arm slot, but if you're shopping around your average second baseman (ditto shortstop, ditto third base) there's a greater chance that an otherwise promising trade partner just doesn't have a need for that specific skill-set.

 

Star players are a different story. By no means are those interchangeable in any practical sense - if you acquire one of those, you potentially move your existing players around to fit.

[ewen21]

Fungible? 

 

Is George Will in the house?

 

 

Edited July 29, 2018 by ewen21

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I dont think replacing Dozier with Adrianza will result in a more productive infield.

 

I dont think "relief pitchers are fungible" is accurate either, BTW.

I guess we’ll agree to disagree.

 

Something to consider - Pressly was a rule 5 draftee. Most MLB relievers are drafted as starters. Most relievers have very good years, or very good stretches, but only a handful are very good year after year.

 

In my mind relievers are to be churned through as a consumptive commodity. One that gets purchased in bulk and you sift through and decide who’s a starter, who’s a reliever, who’s on the AAAA Rochester express, and who’s minor league fodder.

 

I feel pretty good that they’ll find another Pressly or two soon.

Edited July 29, 2018 by Sconnie

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It's probably not an accurate use of the economics terminology, but to me the idea that it gets across is that you'll less often see a snag when trying to deal/acquire an average reliever because of (say) handedness or arm slot, but if you're shopping around your average second baseman (ditto shortstop, ditto third base) there's a greater chance that an otherwise promising trade partner just doesn't have a need for that specific skill-set.

 

Star players are a different story. By no means are those interchangeable in any practical sense - if you acquire one of those, you potentially move your existing players around to fit.

exactly! And there’s 11-12 pitchers in Rochester and 11-12 pitchers in Chattanooga, odds are you’ll find a guy or two of 22-24 that surprises you. There’s one 2nd baseman at each. You have to manage the position player pool differently.

[jorgenswest]

The days zeroed out. Great question... then what?

 

I don’t want to see the Twins audition Forsythe. They would be auditioning him for all 30 with little to gain. A waiver wire deal isn’t as likely someone can just claim and block if he is looking that good. A month of his salary isn’t that significant and we have seen what secondbasemen are worth.

 

Let’s see a lot of Adrianza. I would suggest at SS with Polanco at 2B.

 

If not Adrianza, I would rather see Rosario at 2B than Forsythe. It would be a huge plays to have Rosario’s offense at that position. Can he turn a DP adequately?

Edited July 31, 2018 by jorgenswest