Article: Dozier’s Days Numbered, Then What?

[yarnivek1972]

I agree with that. The Twins need Escobar next year. THat's even assuming Sano can come back and play full time. Mauer is probably only good for 125-130 games, maybe 100-110 at 1B, so they need Sano to play 50 or so there. They still need someone for that group. A RH hitter would be good but I don't see one out there.

I’ll keep saying this because no one seems to agree, you just CAN’T do that in this era of 13 man pitching staffs. It simply isn’t workable to have a guy who you know won’t be available (but still be on your active roster) for upwards of 1/3 of the games. Especially when that player’s production is FAR lower than average for his position.

 

Even Joe Mauer at his best over the last 5 years (2017) was a below average first baseman offensively. He posted a 116 wRC+ last year which was 19th of 28 qualified first basemen. And that is the BEST he has been in 5 years.

 

Keeping him would be foolish IMO. I would seriously rather roll with Cave at DH until Rooker is ready.

[Vanimal46]

I’ll keep saying this because no one seems to agree, you just CAN’T do that in this era of 13 man pitching staffs. It simply isn’t workable to have a guy who you know won’t be available (but still be on your active roster) for upwards of 1/3 of the games. Especially when that player’s production is FAR lower than average for his position.

 

Even Joe Mauer at his best over the last 5 years (2017) was a below average first baseman offensively. He posted a 116 wRC+ last year which was 19th of 28 qualified first basemen. And that is the BEST he has been in 5 years.

 

Keeping him would be foolish IMO. I would seriously rather roll with Cave at DH until Rooker is ready.

The Twins waste the 25th roster spot all the time on people not worthy of the spot. Waiver wire pickups, rule 5 players, etc. I can't think of a better person that deserves it next year than Joe Mauer.

[yarnivek1972]

The Twins waste the 25th roster spot all the time on people not worthy of the spot. Waiver wire pickups, rule 5 players, etc. I can't think of a better person that deserves it next year than Joe Mauer.

And how has that worked out?

 

Maybe I should rephrase: you can’t do that and expect to be a good team. And no, the Twins were not good in 2017. They were merely less bad than some teams.

[mikelink45]

 

That seems a little harsh don't you think?  "Nothing of value?"   Nothing?

Unless I am reading the standings wrong, we are far below 500, we are out of the wild card and dreaming of catching a better team for the only opportunity that is available.  We have had a chance to move up on Cleveland many times, but it has been the Eddies that have carried us.  Dozier is batting 229 and occupied important slots in the lineup.  According to Baseball Reference in Close and Late hitting he has an OPS of 22 meaning he is way below average with a 140 Babip 422OPS, in these clutch situations he is below average on tOPS and at average in sOPS.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=doziebr01&year=2018&t=b Only in low leverage is his tOPS and sOPS above average.  In High leverage he is 45 and 46 - that is abyssmal.  

 

Brian has been great for the half of each of the last few years, but this year when we needed him because we were missing other key batters he has been AWOL so I will stick with my harsh rating for him.  Yes he could turn it on the last half, but if we are out of it, who cares. 

[Vanimal46]

And how has that worked out?

 

Maybe I should rephrase: you can’t do that and expect to be a good team. And no, the Twins were not good in 2017. They were merely less bad than some teams.

I'll take Joe over whoever they take in the Rule 5.

 

He's one of my favorite Twins players in my fandom. I don't have expectations of him being great in 2019 and I fully admit it's for nostalgia.

 

It's going to be a long, long time until there's another Twins player that plays 15+ seasons with the team. I'm going to enjoy the last period of time he'll play professionally.

[Mr. Brooks]

Insanity. I love Escobar. But Dozier is the better player. Come on. I'm not even the biggest BD fan. Looking at results, I'm not sure Dozier is part of any solution, his leadership mostly failed, and possibly blocked future leaders from stepping up.

 

That said, is Gordon really or future 2B or AS? He's very young, and developed very questionable minor league power. His prospect status has taken a hit. Moving to 2B because he couldn't unseat Adrianza would only be a greater hit. Then when he struggles... There is still a chance he develops into a really good player. I'm trying to think of a player who's fallen down prospect lists then rocketed back up...

 

Anyway, Gordon's future as near as it is, is no sure thing. He still had significant trade value, but less than last year. I'm not liking a lot of our choices at this point.

Gordon has actually moved UP in most (perhaps ALL) midseason prospect ranking updates.

He moved up from #80 in March, to #65 now on MLB pipeline.

I think he's moved up even more dramatically on Baseball America. Not sure about fangraphs, but I think he's moved up there as well.

He hasn't fallen down any prospect lists, at least not any I've seen.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Gordon has actually moved UP in most (perhaps ALL) midseason prospect ranking updates.
He moved up from #80 in March, to #65 now on MLB pipeline.
I think he's moved up even more dramatically on Baseball America. Not sure about fangraphs, but I think he's moved up there as well.
He hasn't fallen down any prospect lists, at least not any I've seen.

 

Moved up from 77 to 62....

[jorgenswest]

Aren’t there some players who have been taken off the list? Wouldn’t we expect everyone to move up?

 

Has Gordon moved ahead of any shortstops previously ahead of him? Have any shortstops passed him up?

 

It could be that moving up 15 spots isn’t really moving up at all. How many players above him were taken off due to playing in the majors?

[Mr. Brooks]

Aren’t there some players who have been taken off the list? Wouldn’t we expect everyone to move up?

 

Has Gordon moved ahead of any shortstops previously ahead of him? Have any shortstops passed him up?

 

It could be that moving up 15 spots isn’t really moving up at all. How many players above him were taken off due to playing in the majors?

I was responding to someone saying he's fallen down prospect lists. He hasn't.

[Jham]

Gordon has actually moved UP in most (perhaps ALL) midseason prospect ranking updates.

He moved up from #80 in March, to #65 now on MLB pipeline.

I think he's moved up even more dramatically on Baseball America. Not sure about fangraphs, but I think he's moved up there as well.

He hasn't fallen down any prospect lists, at least not any I've seen.

I mean, he's fallen on most TD prospect lists. The most important and most accurate, obviously. I assume his promotion to AAA puts him higher on lists that consider proximity in their evals. Also, he can move up by attrition, that is other top prospects graduating.

 

He's yet to establish himself as a short stop. His slugging may be limited by better fielding. He's a major league ball player. But a good one? In my mind, not likely.

Edited July 13, 2018 by Jham

[jorgenswest]

I was responding to someone saying he's fallen down prospect lists. He hasn't.

His status relative to other prospects may have fallen or risen. Isn’t that what matters?

 

I don’t think we know whether he has fallen or risen in status without knowing how many left the group. The numbers shouldn’t be compared.

 

It could be I am wrong and my understanding of winter vs. summer rankings is flawed.

[Jham]

The TD 1 through 5 midseason rankings were released. Gordon held 4th with Romero graduating. My point is actually that it seems like his trajectory and steam, if not his perceived ceiling have been lowered since his hot first half last year. I shouldn't have referenced lists, as that's not really what I meant. Sorry for the confusion. Thank you for the actual various rankings. Doesn't change my opinion (bolsters it?) that Gordon may be more valuable as a SS trade chip than an young mlb 2b on what should be a good teams.

[Thrylos]

 

No, there's a significant change in that Polanco will be available for the entire season rather then half. Also, the other change is the elimination of Morrison as the backup IB/DH option to be replaced by a free agent.  To me, that's a better strategy than bringing up Gordon and hope he does better. With that clarification, do you have a better option? 

 

I think so.  With Dozier, Mauer, Santana, Morrison, Lynn gone they got about $70 million to spend getting some real difference makers.

 

I really do not see Gordon as much as an option, other than trade bait.  They can package him with one of their lefty OFs and a mid-level arm like Gonsalves and try to go after a difference maker as well.

Figured that between these prospects and that $70 mil, they can get 4 difference makers.  An ace that would slot ahead of Berrios and Romero, an 8th and a 9th inning arms, and a stick.  They can try to re-sign Escobar to be the full time second baseman (or Asdrubal Cabrera or even Ian Kinsler - plenty of low cost 2B FAs) and get a 1B/DH/OF who will make a difference.  Or even a catcher if Rooker deemed ready for 1B.   Sano will be back at third, so will Rosario and Polanco.  Buxton is a question mark in my mind, but Cave might be an ok plan B in case of further collapse.

[Thrylos]

 

I'll take Joe over whoever they take in the Rule 5.

He's one of my favorite Twins players in my fandom. I don't have expectations of him being great in 2019 and I fully admit it's for nostalgia.

It's going to be a long, long time until there's another Twins player that plays 15+ seasons with the team. I'm going to enjoy the last period of time he'll play professionally.

 

Enjoy the next few months then.  He has a new baby on the way.  I am not sure that he will not hang up his cleats.

[Kelly Vance]

 

I'm not saying that I'd rather have Dozier. But purely who is better at baseball? I guess insanity is too strong. "Probably" is more accurate. Dozier could be falling off the JJ Hardy Trevor Plotted cliff.

Insanity is too strong.... but it don't make you a bad person.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5aLJ7iGBxMk

[USAFChief]

And how has that worked out?

 

Maybe I should rephrase: you can’t do that and expect to be a good team. And no, the Twins were not good in 2017. They were merely less bad than some teams.

in this day and age, its particularly tough to carry a part time 1st baseman. Carrying a spare outfielder, who covers three positions, is needed. A spare infielder, an extra catcher. But a 110 game first baseman, who does nothing else besides some DH? That's very limiting, particularly when you're not getting much from him when he does play.

 

I understand nostalgia, but I prefer winning. And sorry to say, Mauer isn't helping a lot there any more.

[Linus]

He was last year

And his getting hot spurred the Twins on.

His coming back this year coincides with a sweep and a series win

With his bat which we still will enjoy at 2nd base. His arm is just not good enough to provide above average defense at the most critical spot on the diamond. He can be a plus fielder at 2nd and then we can go get a plus fielder at SS

[Mike Sixel]

 

Aren’t there some players who have been taken off the list? Wouldn’t we expect everyone to move up?

Has Gordon moved ahead of any shortstops previously ahead of him? Have any shortstops passed him up?

It could be that moving up 15 spots isn’t really moving up at all. How many players above him were taken off due to playing in the majors?

 

Except for all the new draft picks added.....to the list also (at least on FG)

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-updated-top-131-prospect-rankings/

[yarnivek1972]

in this day and age, its particularly tough to carry a part time 1st baseman. Carrying a spare outfielder, who covers three positions, is needed. A spare infielder, an extra catcher. But a 110 game first baseman, who does nothing else besides some DH? That's very limiting, particularly when you're not getting much from him when he does play.

 

I understand nostalgia, but I prefer winning. And sorry to say, Mauer isn't helping a lot there any more.

This exactly. Mauer isn’t going to HELP the Twins win in 2019 or thereafter. Indeed, it would be pretty safe to bet that his pressence on the roster would be a hinderence to winning. He knows he simply isn’t capable of playing even 130 games anymore. And I am sure he is well aware of the level of productivity he provides when he IS on the field. Quite frankly, if he chooses to hold “legacy” or whatever over the Twins heads I think that would be pretty selfish. What possible reason does he have to keep playing?

 

Put it one more way: How will fans look at Joe Mauer 10-20 years from now if this core gets oh so close, but maybe one big bat in the middle would have put them over the top. But, the Twins couldn’t get that bat onto the team because he was blocked by Joe Mauer. The Twins wasted the prime years of Mauer, Morneau and Santana by not putting enough around them. Will fans really accept this team making that same mistake again?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think it's pretty obvious contracts for players Dozier's age now, who can only play one position (that I don't consider one of the "up the middle" important ones, or that many teams even have a need for on the FA market), and are known mostly for power output, aren't getting what had been expected anymore in Free Agency.

 

I'm fully aware how good Dozier has been the last two seasons and I'd love to see him get paid just as much as you, I think. But I really don't think he's going to unless it's from the Twins.

Seriously. We're talking about Dozier signing a $5m per year contract for three seasons. Let's bring this back to the original statement and consider the absurdity of it.

 

If we want to talk whether he'll get $8m per for two seasons, I guess that's a conversation we can have but it's likely still wrong. Even in a depressed market, Dozier is a $10-12m player easily because seriously, he's a five win player.

 

GMs are not stupid. One will find a way to fit a player like Brian Dozier into their lineup for $8m a year. At least one will also do it for $10m a year.

 

Even if Dozier ends this season with a .750 OPS, I'd toss him $12m on a make good season because why the **** not? People simultaneously accuse GMs of being idiots and brilliant. Taking on Dozier for $12m in a season (literally 80%+ of the three season total originally posted) is a no-brainer because you're paying less than 10% of your payroll for a potential 4-6 win player. That's a risk you take every day.

[Danchat]

 

Seriously. We're talking about Dozier signing a $5m per year contract for three seasons. Let's bring this back to the original statement and consider the absurdity of it.

 

If we want to talk whether he'll get $8m per for two seasons, I guess that's a conversation we can have but it's likely still wrong. Even in a depressed market, Dozier is a $10-12m player easily because seriously, he's a five win player.

 

GMs are not stupid. One will find a way to fit a player like Brian Dozier into their lineup for $8m a year. At least one will also do it for $10m a year.

 

Even if Dozier ends this season with a .750 OPS, I'd toss him $12m on a make good season because why the **** not? People simultaneously accuse GMs of being idiots and brilliant. Taking on Dozier for $12m in a season (literally 80%+ of the three season total originally posted) is a no-brainer because you're paying less than 10% of your payroll for a potential 4-6 win player. That's a risk you take every day.

Agreed, I think many aren't seeing the Moustakas deal as an outlier like I think they should be. I think Dozier gets $10M a year at the minimum... I think he'll get $13-15M a year but not for too long (3 years). With the demand for 2B seemingly on the up compared to the last previous two years, I can see Dozier landing a nice deal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Agreed, I think many aren't seeing the Moustakas deal as an outlier like I think they should be. I think Dozier gets $10M a year at the minimum... I think he'll get $13-15M a year but not for too long (3 years). With the demand for 2B seemingly on the up compared to the last previous two years, I can see Dozier landing a nice deal.

I agree with your point, but... Mike Moustakas' career fWAR (12.4) is roughly comparable to Dozier's 2016-17 fWAR (11.2).

 

Again, come on.

[Kelly Vance]

 

in this day and age, its particularly tough to carry a part time 1st baseman. Carrying a spare outfielder, who covers three positions, is needed. A spare infielder, an extra catcher. But a 110 game first baseman, who does nothing else besides some DH? That's very limiting, particularly when you're not getting much from him when he does play.

I understand nostalgia, but I prefer winning. And sorry to say, Mauer isn't helping a lot there any more.

Yeah, Chief, check tonight's box score. 

[Kelly Vance]

 

This exactly. Mauer isn’t going to HELP the Twins win in 2019 or thereafter. Indeed, it would be pretty safe to bet that his pressence on the roster would be a hinderence to winning. He knows he simply isn’t capable of playing even 130 games anymore. And I am sure he is well aware of the level of productivity he provides when he IS on the field. Quite frankly, if he chooses to hold “legacy” or whatever over the Twins heads I think that would be pretty selfish. What possible reason does he have to keep playing?

Put it one more way: How will fans look at Joe Mauer 10-20 years from now if this core gets oh so close, but maybe one big bat in the middle would have put them over the top. But, the Twins couldn’t get that bat onto the team because he was blocked by Joe Mauer. The Twins wasted the prime years of Mauer, Morneau and Santana by not putting enough around them. Will fans really accept this team making that same mistake again?

Check tonight's box score.

[gocgo]

I am not convinced that Dozier gets traded.  We tend to look at it from the Twins perspective, but looking at it from the buyers point of view, I'm not sure it makes sense to trade for him. 

 

The teams that I've heard as being potential suitors - Boston, Milwaukee, Dodgers, Seattle.

 

Boston - Pedroia probably out for the year.  Makes sense for them to pick up a rental.  Jed Lowrie, Scooter Gennett, Brian Dozier, Whit Merrifield.  You get your pick of those 4.  Yes, Dozier starting to heat up.Yes, Billie Beane says they are buyers, but let's be honest, there's a lot of BS that gets spewed this time of year to position for the best deal.  The A's are further back in the division than the Twins and they have 2 teams to hurdle in a tough division.  Lowrie is older than Dozier and the A's have needs.  It makes sense to move him rather than extend him.  Gennett says he doesn't think he'll be traded.  Maybe, but what would you do if you were the GM of a team in last place and had a sell high asset?  I'd listen to the offers.  Ditto for Whit Merrifield.

 

Milwaukee - they are in the Machado sweepstakes and here's the interesting thing.  If you are the Orioles, your are selling...but if you're smart you are taking offers right down to the wire.  That could easily handcuff some teams as the pieces involved in the Machado offer will be tied up.  Unless they are willing to fold their hand in the Machado game, it will make it tough to move forward on other deals.

 

Dodgers - Jose DeLeon was the offer last year and we didn't like it.  New year, new circumstances, but the offer certainly isn't going to go up.  I'm not convinced we will get an offer that will make sense for the Twins given our recent surge.

 

Seattle - Robinson Cano.  They get him back for the last 6 weeks, but will miss him for the playoffs should they make it.  Does it make sense to trade for Dozier when they get Cano back on August 14 for the playoff push.  Right now, they have the second wild card.  So, do you trade for Dozier for a couple of weeks and a possible wildcard game?  Assuming that I have to pay more than a bag of peanut M&M's, my answer is no.

 

There may be other teams that are interested, but I'm going to say that Dozier and his glorious hair stay in Minnesota for the rest of the year.

Edited July 14, 2018 by gocgo

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This exactly. Mauer isn’t going to HELP the Twins win in 2019 or thereafter. Indeed, it would be pretty safe to bet that his pressence on the roster would be a hinderence to winning. He knows he simply isn’t capable of playing even 130 games anymore. And I am sure he is well aware of the level of productivity he provides when he IS on the field. Quite frankly, if he chooses to hold “legacy” or whatever over the Twins heads I think that would be pretty selfish. What possible reason does he have to keep playing?

Put it one more way: How will fans look at Joe Mauer 10-20 years from now if this core gets oh so close, but maybe one big bat in the middle would have put them over the top. But, the Twins couldn’t get that bat onto the team because he was blocked by Joe Mauer. The Twins wasted the prime years of Mauer, Morneau and Santana by not putting enough around them. Will fans really accept this team making that same mistake again?

 

I think Mauer has value in the right role. He takes great at bats, but he's lacking in power and just isn't the Joe of old. His lack of positional flexibility hurts him too. If he could play 3rd and maybe some RF, he'd be much more valuable. He's certainly capable of having one or two more 2017 type seasons at this point, but hardly a sure bet. As a complementary player who isn't playing every day, I think he'd be fine.

 

Whether or not the Twins are the best for that remains to be seen. I don't think they'd play him in the right role if they signed him, and for whatever reason, they don't seem too interested in having him play 3rd despite the need (which I don't think would take much adjustment) or a corner spot.

[wabene]

The Twins really needed someone to step up this year and set the tone. Dozier wasn't up to the task. He seems to be able ride the wave with a hot team but not a guy to strap a team on his back and carry a team. More of a front runner. Bit player in a hit parade. Polanco on the other hand is more of an igniter. Last year when his father figure died he was in a tough place. This is the real Polanco and it is no coincidence the Twins have gone on a run. Dozier will join in but he is not the top dog here. All the same I could see signing him but maybe a less mercurial player would be better. His bad halves drag the team down big time.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

The Twins really needed someone to step up this year and set the tone. Dozier wasn't up to the task. He seems to be able ride the wave with a hot team but not a guy to strap a team on his back and carry a team. More of a front runner. Bit player in a hit parade. Polanco on the other hand is more of an igniter. Last year when his father figure died he was in a tough place. This is the real Polanco and it is no coincidence the Twins have gone on a run. Dozier will join in but he is not the top dog here. All the same I could see signing him but maybe a less mercurial player would be better. His bad halves drag the team down big time.

 

So you don't think Dozier's emergence from his slump has anything to do with the team playing better baseball? Maybe he doesn't merely ride the wave, but helps to create it.

[wabene]

So you don't think Dozier's emergence from his slump has anything to do with the team playing better baseball? Maybe he doesn't merely ride the wave, but helps to create it.

He should have done it in May then. I think he feels the pressure when things aren't going well and tightens up. The worst team in ball and Polanco are what got this team going now Dozier can follow the leader

Edited July 14, 2018 by Original Whizzinator

[Brock Beauchamp]

He should have done it in May then. I think he feels the pressure when things aren't going well and tightens up. The worst team in ball and Polanco assure what for this team going now Dozier can follow the leader

This doesn’t make sense. When one of your best offensive players slumps, your offense will struggle. When that player does well, your offense will improve.

 

You’re blaming Dozier for the bad but giving him no credit for the good.

 

Which is particularly weird because you keep bringing up Polanco, who has not been very good in a SSS and much worse than Dozier over the same stretch of time (much MUCH worse).