Article: Real Deal: What Would It Take To Get J.T. Realmuto?

[Riverbrian]

I'd love to have Realmuto but I can't rationalize the price that needs to be paid to acquire him. 

 

You could acquire a lot more bat at other positions for the same price. More bat that doesn't come with the standard required catcher rest and typical catcher dings that seem to send catchers to the DL more often than other positions. 

 

I have no idea (how could I) but I think it's a fair assumption that it would take more to acquire Realmuto than it would for Eugenio Suarez. If that's the case you might as well go get Suarez instead because he will produce more at the plate and play more often. 

 

Maybe the Pirates will give up Marte for the price you would pay for Realmuto.  

 

Many seem to be willing to declare Sano as the starting 3B in 2019 and therefore don't see a need for Suarez. Many are ready to declare Buxton as the everyday guy in CF come 2019 and therefore don't see the need for a Marte. I will never understand that logic when you look at the Sano and Buxton puddles lying in the middle of the 2018 street. How can any GM or fan for that matter look at Sano and Buxton and say to themselves... We are covered at 3B and CF? 

 

Why wouldn't you pickup a Marte to join Rosario, Kepler and Buxton if you could? Let Buxton earn his playing time. If he can't beat those 3 for playing time than he isn't what we need him to be in 2019. If all 4 kick ass... Great problem to have. 

 

Why wouldn't you pickup a Suarez to play 3B if you could? Let Sano earn playing time by... you know... performing. Sano could start on the opening day roster as a 1B/3B/DH. If Sano is earning everyday playing time... he could play some 1B or DH. If Mauer comes back... Sano could slow Mauer's playing time by... out performing him or DH if Mauer is performing... again... good problem to have. If Mauer doesn't come back... pick up Matt Adams for 1B to compete with Sano and Suarez. Play Adams in the OF on occasion if you like the matchups or all 3 are hot and you want to DH someone else. 

 

We were 5 hitters short this year from a decent starting 9 players. I don't understand how anyone van put together a potential 2019 lineup with Sano, Buxton and Kepler etched in stone and feel comfortable that we have 3 positions covered adequately for 162 games next year. I'm saying this and I believe in all 3 of those guys. 

 

So that leads to the question? But... who will play Catcher... We will have Castro and we will have whoever they sign in Free Agency. 

 

If you are giving up Lewis or Romero plus Nick Gordon plus that Brudar kid plus Kiriloff or whatever you are willing to pay for Realmuto... Spend it on someone who will dent the scoreboard more often... GO BIG and don't let the presence of Sano or Buxton stop you.  

 

About the only way I'd be comfortable trading for Realmuto was if the Twins could get Starlin Castro as a throw in or even lower the prospect price for taking on that contract. I doubt that would work but at least that way you improve a couple of areas instead of a cannonball through the farm system for a Catcher improvement alone. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

I'm done. It's almost like we are ignoring all the posts here. Enjoy.

 

That's for sure. I have asked a few times to those of you who have said we MIGHT waste 2019 ... what's the rest of the plan. Are you really suggesting a move this costly be done without determining the viability of the other moves required. 2019 will be a waste with or without Realmuto without at least one more top of the rotation starter. I would assume the supporters know this. I assume they also know we have a sum total of one BP guy. It's also understood we need to replace Dozier who was arguably most valuable player on the team the past couple of years. As you have pointed out, we have a hole to fill at 1B and the FA mark is very weak. Would that not require a trade to fill as well? Escobar will be gone as well. 

 

Maybe it's just me but I have not seen anyone else address what we need to do to insure the cost associated with acquiring Realmuto is not a complete waste. I have also seen anyone address why now is better than the off-season other than this particular asset might not be available.

 

So, we are not just talking about a considerable package for Realmuto. We would need to pony up big time for a SP given there are none available this winter in FA. We could get a 3B and move Sano to first so that is possible through FA. At a minimum, saving 2019 would require two monster packages which would take several of our top prospects.

 

All of this to build a contender around two guys that have regressed to the point of being sent back to the minors. The only cost of waiting the rest of the year and being in a considerably better position to make such a decision is this particular asset probably won't be available.  The cost, if all of these things don't come together is likely several more years of sucking. The benefit is elevating our chances of contention for the 19-20 seasons. 

 

The only way this makes any sense at all is if Buxton and Sano are playing at an elite level out of the gate in 2019. That's a long-shot as is putting together all of the rest of the pieces by the start of 2019 Given the cost of this plan (trading key prospects) and the relative lack of cost to take the rest of the year to evaluate Buxton / Sano as well as SP and BP prospects it would be flat out incompetent to trade for Realmuto or any similar asset today. 

 

Edited July 14, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[AlwaysinModeration]

Coming back to this thread, which seems to go down rabbit holes, what would it take to get Realmuto?

 

That question means, what is the minimum it would take to get Realmuto. So I think the question is what the Twins can avoid giving up in order to get him.

 

Lewis: Can the Twins offer a package that doesn’t include Lewis? Yes, I think they can.

 

Romero: Can they offer a package that doesn’t include Romero? Ditto.

 

The next best bets are Kiriloff, Brusdar, and Gonsalves, who have all made top 100 lists and/or have nice helium. Baddoo is probably the fourth most appealing, followed by Rooker and Larnach. But not really top 100 types (or not yet, for Larnach.)

 

I don’t think the Twins would need to include all three of Kiriloff, Brusdar and Gonsalves, but I do think they would need to include at least three of the six in that “not Lewis or Romero” list.

 

If I were in the Twins FO I would try to exclude Brusdar from that group. Offer them their pick of three from this five: Kiriloff, Gonsalves, Rooker, Larnach (as player to be named) and Baddoo. Then say you will throw in another top 20 (maybe someone like Enlow or Wade).

 

So my theory is the minimum they would need to offer to get Realmuto is a package that looks like this:

 

Kiriloff, Gonsalves, Baddoo and Enlow.

 

And I would make that trade.

[Otto von Ballpark]

)

So my theory is the minimum they would need to offer to get Realmuto is a package that looks like this:

 

Kiriloff, Gonsalves, Baddoo and Enlow.

 

And I would make that trade.

That's not close. 50 FV prospects like Kiriloff and Gonsalves are useful but not exactly rare -- there were 97 of them on Fangraphs preseason lists. And the Marlins already had the most in MLB, with 7.

 

Packaging 2 together isn't any kind of special offer that gets this deal done -- if that was the best offer, the Marlins would just wait and try again later like the Brewers did with Lucroy.

 

Some relevant reading:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-30-prospects-minnesota-twins/

[Riverbrian]

 

That's not close. 50 FV prospects like Kiriloff and Gonsalves are useful but not exactly rare -- there were 97 of them on Fangraphs preseason lists. And the Marlins already had the most in MLB, with 7.

Packaging 2 together isn't any kind of special offer that gets this deal done -- if that was the best offer, the Marlins would just wait and try again later like the Brewers did with Lucroy.

Some relevant reading:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-30-prospects-minnesota-twins/

 

 

Acquiring Realmuto would be a cannonball through the farm system. 

 

Which is fine as long as the Twins are prepared to fill holes with AAAA guys and they never have a significant injury. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Acquiring Realmuto would be a cannonball through the farm system.

 

Which is fine as long as the Twins are prepared to fill holes with AAAA guys and they never have a significant injury.

I don’t agree. Sometimes you have to take a leap. Your argument equates to never making a trade for an impact player.

[The Wise One]

 

You got to trade from excess not shortage.  

The Twins by excess would have only  OF on the 40 man that are not performing near ceiling.  If you really wanted to rattle some people you could have said Buxton and Kepler. If Miami had a third player you could throw Sano in the mix,  The Twins could have obtain Barraclough easily if they had had signed him. They wasted a lot of money that year. Drafted Brian Anderson of the Marlins that year, too. 

Edited July 17, 2018 by The Wise One

[The Wise One]

 

That's not close. 50 FV prospects like Kiriloff and Gonsalves are useful but not exactly rare -- there were 97 of them on Fangraphs preseason lists. And the Marlins already had the most in MLB, with 7.

Packaging 2 together isn't any kind of special offer that gets this deal done -- if that was the best offer, the Marlins would just wait and try again later like the Brewers did with Lucroy.

Some relevant reading:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-30-prospects-minnesota-twins/

In the end all the Brewers got was a trade chip for another player that required more chips.  Prospects outside of the top 20 are no different than a guess.    The thing is if you believe in your prospect it would be unusual to trade them

[Riverbrian]

 

I don’t agree. Sometimes you have to take a leap. Your argument equates to never making a trade for an impact player.

 

It never pays to be brief. 

 

My argument doesn't equate to never trading for an impact player. My argument is specific to Realmuto. 

 

Although, I would execute your trade idea with no concerns whatsoever. 

 

I also believe Spycake is right and I don't think your trade idea would get the job done.

 

I also believe that if Spycake is right... you will be creating additional holes for 2019 to the lengthy list of holes that already needs to be filled for 2019. 

 

Personally, at this time, I don't have Sano and Buxton as hole fillers that we can be confident in. 

[USAFChief]

It never pays to be brief.

nonconcur.

[SwainZag]

 

What am I missing here? Did you not write they have very few holes but catcher? Have you not said they are wasting Buxton + Sano if they don't fix catcher? Did the other poster you defended in your last comment to me not call 2019 a waste without getting Realmuto? You said the option is that, or sign Ramos or Grandal?

 

How about teams like the A's, Diamondbacks, Nats, Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, and Brewers all competing this season with catchers who have wRC+ below 80? How have they done it?

 

Having a two-way catcher will always be a luxury IMO.  When Joe was winning a Gold Gloves at catcher and hitting the hell out of the ball, he not only was a luxury, but a complete rarity of a ballplayer.  Something you very rarely see, and it's why he got paid some handsomely.  

 

I am a big Realmuto fan, he is a very good player, but he does play catcher.  They get dinged up and they don't start every game.  JT has averaged 121 games behind the plate over the last 3 seasons. That means for 40 games, or 1/4 of the season you are starting your backup at Catcher.  Not to mention, how many catchers stay productive after the age of 30?  I don't have stats in front of me, but ones that stay productive are in the minority.

 

I would love to JT on this team, but the cost to acquire him in a trade will always far outweigh his value to the team as he is a luxury.....unless he is the missing piece.  If this team was 10 games up in the division and the catcher was far and away the biggest weak link on the team, I could probably rationalize trading for him, but at a price of Lewis/Romero......I just couldn't do it.  You can win without a stud catcher.

Edited July 17, 2018 by SwainZag

[Mike Sixel]

 

Having a two-way catcher will always be a luxury IMO.  When Joe was winning a Gold Gloves at catcher and hitting the hell out of the ball, he not only was a luxury, but a complete rarity of a ballplayer.  Something you very rarely see, and it's why he got paid some handsomely.  

 

I am a big Realmuto fan, he is a very good player, but he does play catcher.  They get dinged up and they don't start every game.  JT has averaged 121 games behind the plate over the last 3 seasons. That means for 40 games, or 1/4 of the season you are starting your backup at Catcher.  Not to mention, how many catchers stay productive after the age of 30?  I don't have stats in front of me, but ones that stay productive are in the minority.

 

I would love to JT on this team, but the cost to acquire him in a trade will always far outweigh his value to the team as he is a luxury.....unless he is the missing piece.  If this team was 10 games up in the division and the catcher was far and away the biggest weak link on the team, I could probably rationalize trading for him, but at a price of Lewis/Romero......I just couldn't do it.  You can win without a stud catcher.

 

Isn't a two way elite player always a luxury? I'm not sure I understand that part of your argument.

 

As for "only" 121 games......he still puts up 5 WAR....now add in 1 WAR from your backup....and in the AL he can DH some when resting.

 

The cost? That's a legit argument, but the "luxury" part, I'm not sure I understand that part.

 

You can win a division w/o a lot of things....and you can lose even with a stud OF or 3B.....the goal is to have more great players at any position.

[SwainZag]

 

Isn't a two way elite player always a luxury? I'm not sure I understand that part of your argument.

 

As for "only" 121 games......he still puts up 5 WAR....now add in 1 WAR from your backup....and in the AL he can DH some when resting.

 

The cost? That's a legit argument, but the "luxury" part, I'm not sure I understand that part.

 

You can win a division w/o a lot of things....and you can lose even with a stud OF or 3B.....the goal is to have more great players at any position.

 

I mean it as a luxury because there are so few of them in baseball.  You can count on one hand how many catchers are an above bat and glove.  How many other positions can you do that?  Having a two-way catcher at the moment is the biggest luxury outside of an ace starter.

 

Why only in quotes?  It's an actual average of how many games he has started behind the plate the last 3 years.  He catches 75% of the time, which is great, but you still have Bobby Wilson starting and playing 40 games.

 

BTW...he has never been a 5 WAR player.  He is on pace for it this season, but his previous career high in WAR is 3.6.

 

I just have a hard time selling the farm for a catcher, no matter how good they are.  If you already have one that's fantastic, or paying one in free agency, but considering how much they play, how easily they get banged up and short their shelf life of above average defense is behind the plate......give me a defense minded, below average hitting catcher and trade your top specs for starting pitching.  But, just an opinion.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I mean it as a luxury because there are so few of them in baseball.  You can count on one hand how many catchers are an above bat and glove.  How many other positions can you do that?  Having a two-way catcher at the moment is the biggest luxury outside of an ace starter.

 

Why only in quotes?  It's an actual average of how many games he has started behind the plate the last 3 years.  He catches 75% of the time, which is great, but you still have Bobby Wilson starting and playing 40 games.

 

BTW...he has never been a 5 WAR player.  He is on pace for it this season, but his previous career high in WAR is 3.6.

 

I just have a hard time selling the farm for a catcher, no matter how good they are.  If you already have one that's fantastic, or paying one in free agency, but considering how much they play, how easily they get banged up and short their shelf life of above average defense is behind the plate......give me a defense minded, below average hitting catcher and trade your top specs for starting pitching.  But, just an opinion.

 

How many elite pitchers are there, and don't they only play 30-35 games?

 

And, I'm not saying your opinion is wrong, btw.....

 

since they didn't do this at the beginning of the year, I'm less interested than I was (also, since Sano and Buxton have been so bad this year). But, most of the arguments I read against read like they should never deal for elite players unless they are one player away, no matter how much control the player has....which is a great way to never add elite players (especially since they are wholly unlikely to ever outbid anyone for an elite FA either).

 

As I've said since I came here.....if you won't sign elite FAs, and you won't trade for elite MLB players, you have to be one of the best drafting and developing systems there is to compete....and their record their is not top 5 by any means....

[alarp33]

 

How many elite pitchers are there, and don't they only play 30-35 games?

 

 

There's a tad bit of a difference on how much affect on an individual game a pitcher has vs a catcher, no?

 

 

 

 But, most of the arguments I read against read like they should never deal for elite players unless they are one player away, no matter how much control the player has....

 

I have not seen one person say this, you have been putting words in peoples mouth during this entire debate. 

[SwainZag]

 

How many elite pitchers are there, and don't they only play 30-35 games?

 

And, I'm not saying your opinion is wrong, btw.....

 

since they didn't do this at the beginning of the year, I'm less interested than I was (also, since Sano and Buxton have been so bad this year). But, most of the arguments I read against read like they should never deal for elite players unless they are one player away, no matter how much control the player has....which is a great way to never add elite players (especially since they are wholly unlikely to ever outbid anyone for an elite FA either).

 

As I've said since I came here.....if you won't sign elite FAs, and you won't trade for elite MLB players, you have to be one of the best drafting and developing systems there is to compete....and their record their is not top 5 by any means....

 

You aren't talking about trading the farm for an elite reliever though, and that would never be in the conversation, so I think that's a bad comparison.

 

Other people might have said it, but I never said I wouldn't trade for an elite player.  I am just not shelling out the pieces it would take to get Realmuto simply because of the position he plays. 

 

The current front office has been in place for less than 2 seasons, why are we already sold and made up our mind on them?  (I know a conversation for another time and thread.)

[Mike Sixel]

 

You aren't talking about trading the farm for an elite reliever though, and that would never be in the conversation, so I think that's a bad comparison.

 

Other people might have said it, but I never said I wouldn't trade for an elite player.  I am just not shelling out the pieces it would take to get Realmuto simply because of the position he plays. 

 

The current front office has been in place for less than 2 seasons, why are we already sold and made up our mind on them?  (I know a conversation for another time and thread.)

 

Who said anything about deciding on the FO already? I pointed out that if you aren't going to acquire outside elite players, you have to be elite at drafting and developing....and that the TWins haven't been. I am assuming everyone here knows that the FO changed recently. 

[alarp33]

 

Who said anything about deciding on the FO already? I pointed out that if you aren't going to acquire outside elite players, you have to be elite at drafting and developing....and that the TWins haven't been. I am assuming everyone here knows that the FO changed recently. 

 

The front office has done 2 drafts, it's definitely too early to judge either, which is why it's odd you called them nowhere near the top 5. 

 

Early returns show the 2017 class a good chance to be pretty damn good. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

There's a tad bit of a difference on how much affect on an individual game a pitcher has vs a catcher, no?

 

 

 

I have not seen one person say this, you have been putting words in peoples mouth during this entire debate. 

 

yes, people have been saying over and over that they would not deal "the farm" for an elite player unless they were the missing piece. 

 

Sure, there is a difference between a pitcher and a catcher and individual games, it's why we have WAR and other measures.....so we can sort of get an idea of relative value. 

 

No catcher catches more than about 120 times in a year......more like 100 or so for a lot of them....and in that time, JT puts up more WAR than most hitters and pitchers, then you add the WAR from your backup, and you have a huge advantage on other teams. That, imo, is the goal. To be better than other teams at more positions than you are behind. The secondary goal is to be less behind where you are behind.

 

It is very reasonable to say the price is too high in context of this particular team. It is also, imo, reasonable to say that acquiring him is part of an overall plan to be great during Buxton's and Sano's time here. It is also reasonable to politely disagree on either side of that.

[alarp33]

 

 

It is very reasonable to say the price is too high in context of this particular team. 

 

I agree that is reasonable, and that's been my position all along.

 

What I don't think is reasonable is suggesting people who have this stance don't want to improve the team through any measure, want to punt on 2019, never want to trade for or sign elite players, and other hyperbole you have thrown back as your retort. 

[alarp33]

 

 

 

It is also, imo, reasonable to say that acquiring him is part of an overall plan to be great during Buxton's and Sano's time here.

 

For what it's worth, I think this is reasonable to want as well, I disagree but people are entitled to their opinion.

 

What I haven't seen from anyone who wants to trade the farm for Realmuto is the plan to be competitive in 2019+2020 (his only 2 years of control), while remaining in reality (Machado is not signing here), or other than crossing your fingers Buxton and Sano are stars (which certainly doesn't look promising as we sit here today)

[Major League Ready]

 

Who said anything about deciding on the FO already? I pointed out that if you aren't going to acquire outside elite players, you have to be elite at drafting and developing....and that the TWins haven't been. I am assuming everyone here knows that the FO changed recently. 

 

Is your answer really pursuing less effective practices for building a contender which trading for top talent happens to be, especially given the economic necessity for mid to small revenue teams to build from their farm systems. The answer is to get better a drafting, international signings, and trading from prospects. Basically, the way Cleveland has been built. To say it has not worked, therefore let's pursue a path everyone else has realized is far less effective is an outstandingly bad idea.

 

Any plan to get a great player sounds exciting when your window to the world does not extend beyond next year. This team has a long list of needs in 2019 and it gets longer in 2020. The solution is not a player that is only under contract for two years, especially when that player will cost the elite prospects that could finally end the term of our mediocrity. This is a play with a low probability of success at the cost of likely extending us watching bad baseball for several years. 

 

Try asking if the Twins should trade (assuming a premium) for Realmuto (RIGHT NOW) on one of the Q&As you follow. Let's see what their take is on this move. You ask these questions frequently, let's get an outside perspective. 

Edited July 17, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[Mike Sixel]

 

Is your answer really pursuing less effective practices for building a contender which trading for top talent happens to be, especially given the economic necessity for mid to small revenue teams to build from their farm systems. The answer is to get better a drafting, international signings, and trading from prospects. Basically, the way Cleveland has been built. To say it has not worked, therefore let's pursue a path everyone else has realized is far less effective is an outstandingly bad idea.

 

Try asking if the Twins should trade (assuming a premium) for Realmuto (RIGHT NOW) on one of the Q&As you follow. Let's see what their take is on this move. You ask these questions frequently, let's get an outside perspective.

 

Been pretty clear that I'd only do this if you believe in the Sano / buxton window. 

 

fixing those other things takes time....considerable time. So, as I said above....pick a path.

[alarp33]

 

Been pretty clear that I'd only do this if you believe in the Sano / buxton window. 

 

fixing those other things takes time....considerable time. So, as I said above....pick a path.

 

You've said multiple times, over multiple threads you have to pick a path now, it will be too late once you know what you have in Buxton/ Sano. From earlier this thread; 

 

I'd guess that once they "know" if Buxton and Sano are good, no 2.5 year elite player will be available in the time that they "know" that. So, you are then trading real assets for half a year, most likely, and we'll get to read about how that's a terrible idea. Which I know, because I've read that here over and over.

 

EDIT: More... 

 

Either we believe in Sano and Buxton, or we don't. But if we wait for perfect information, it will be less likely to be successful, because we have not added talent around them. And if we to find out they are bad, and didn't trade Gibson at his peak, we lose value.

 

So, pick a path that isn't the "play not to lose" path, that dooms mediocre teams to stay mediocre.

Edited July 17, 2018 by alarp33

[USAFChief]

 

For what it's worth, I think this is reasonable to want as well, I disagree but people are entitled to their opinion.

 

What I haven't seen from anyone who wants to trade the farm for Realmuto is the plan to be competitive in 2019+2020 (his only 2 years of control), while remaining in reality (Machado is not signing here), or other than crossing your fingers Buxton and Sano are stars (which certainly doesn't look promising as we sit here today)

IMO if Sano and Buxton are busts, it's going to be extremely difficult for the Twins to contend in the next few years.  So you might as well operate as if they will develop into stars, because you're not hurting yourself if they don't*, and you need to help yourself if they do.

 

*The prospects used to acquire Realmuto won't be leading the Twins to glory in 2019-2010 anyway. And you can probably restock at the deadline in 2020 by trading Realmuto if necessary.

 

I'd be much more upset with the front office if they let the team squander a chance with Buxton/Sano/Berrios/et al than I would be if they made trades that ultimately didn't get them were we all want them to go.

[alarp33]

 

IMO if Sano and Buxton are busts, it's going to be extremely difficult for the Twins to contend in the next few years.  So you might as well operate as if they will develop into stars, because you're not hurting yourself if they don't*, and you need to help yourself if they do.

 

*The prospects used to acquire Realmuto won't be leading the Twins to a glory in 2019-2010 anyway. And you can probably restock at the deadline in 2020 by trading Realmuto if necessary.

 

You're not hurting yourself if they don't??? Giving away 6 years of control of a Royce Lewis + Fernando Romero (hypothetical trade offer to MIA) is not hurting yourself??? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

You've said multiple times, over multiple threads you have to pick a path now, it will be too late once you know what you have in Buxton/ Sano. From earlier this thread; 

 

I'd guess that once they "know" if Buxton and Sano are good, no 2.5 year elite player will be available in the time that they "know" that. So, you are then trading real assets for half a year, most likely, and we'll get to read about how that's a terrible idea. Which I know, because I've read that here over and over.

 

EDIT: More... 

 

Either we believe in Sano and Buxton, or we don't. But if we wait for perfect information, it will be less likely to be successful, because we have not added talent around them. And if we to find out they are bad, and didn't trade Gibson at his peak, we lose value.

 

So, pick a path that isn't the "play not to lose" path, that dooms mediocre teams to stay mediocre.

 

Isn't that what I said? I don't get your point with this post.....

 

yes, they should pick a path now, because Gibson has A LOT more value now than he does in 12 months.

 

and, yes, if you wait until you "know" if Sano and Buxton are good or not, you've burned more of the window waiting to know.....

 

I'm not sure what isn't clear there.

 

Either assume they are good, and act that way, or assume they aren't, and act that way. It really only impacts the Odo and Gibson decisions (assuming you are dealing any 18 FAs) and maybe ESan....on the sell side....but it really changes things if you are on the buy side. Of course, they can wait for the off season to add players if they want.....with the up and downside that everyone has more information on the value (or lack thereof) of the prospects being dealt. But, if you pick to add, then are picking NOT TO TRADE Odorizzi or Gibson right now.....and not ESan either.

 

So, ya, waiting is an opportunity cost, and decreases the value of Gibson for sure.

 

I don't think anything in this post is controversial.....

Edited July 17, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[USAFChief]

 

You're not hurting yourself if they don't??? Giving away 6 years of control of a Royce Lewis + Fernando Romero (hypothetical trade offer to MIA) is not hurting yourself??? 

We were specifically talking about 2019-2020, no?  Six years of control isn't part of the conversation.

 

So no, I don't expect either of those two to be leading the Twins to postseason glory in 2019-2020. 

 

Beyond that, who knows, but by then there will be other prospects for folks here to salivate over.

 

And for the record, I have never advocated dealing both Lewis and Romero for Realmuto. One or the other, although I'd be reluctant to deal Lewis. I don't think it takes that much. 

[SwainZag]

 

Isn't that what I said? I don't get your point with this post.....

 

yes, they should pick a path now, because Gibson has A LOT more value now than he does in 12 months.

 

and, yes, if you wait until you "know" if Sano and Buxton are good or not, you've burned more of the window waiting to know.....

 

I'm not sure what isn't clear there.

 

Either assume they are good, and act that way, or assume they aren't, and act that way. It really only impacts the Odo and Gibson decisions (assuming you are dealing any 18 FAs) and maybe ESan....on the sell side....but it really changes things if you are on the buy side. Of course, they can wait for the off season to add players if they want.....with the up and downside that everyone has more information on the value (or lack thereof) of the prospects being dealt. But, if you pick to add, then are picking NOT TO TRADE Odorizzi or Gibson right now.....and not ESan either.

 

So, ya, waiting is an opportunity cost, and decreases the value of Gibson for sure.

 

I don't think anything in this post is controversial.....

 

If Buck and Sano both break out to their potentials that we have already seen in the past, you can always add as it's happening.  I don't see how that would be burning the window at all.....unless they let all their free agents leave and do nothing in free agency, but I think that's a whole 'nother conversation.

[Major League Ready]

 

We were specifically talking about 2019-2020, no?  Six years of control isn't part of the conversation.

 

So no, I don't expect either of those two to be leading the Twins to postseason glory in 2019-2020. 

 

Beyond that, who knows, but by then there will be other prospects for folks here to salivate over.

 

And for the record, I have never advocated dealing both Lewis and Romero for Realmuto. One or the other, although I'd be reluctant to deal Lewis. I don't think it takes that much. 

That's the crux of the problem. The singular focus on next year. That's what leads to the sentiment that it won't hurt you. Supervisory or even middle management is tasked with execution. Leadership, in this case the Chief Baseball Officer and GM are responsible for the long-term health of this organization. There is not a GM in this league that would give any serious consideration to trade for Realmuto at the expected price if they were in the Twins situation.

 

Cmon, this team is a mess without the necessity of Buxton and Sano becoming elite and you are suggesting a "final piece" type move. To be fair it's a mess with potential. The SP and BP aside, what are the odds at this point Buxton and Sano become 5+ WAR players or whatever measure you want to use that would equate to them playing at the level necessary for the Twins to contend. We should trade away our best prospect for 2 years depending on both Buxton and Sano reaching their potential. That kind of decision making gets you fired when in a leadership position.