Article: Real Deal: What Would It Take To Get J.T. Realmuto?

[Tom Froemming]

Didn't get a chance to read everyone else's comments, but here's my $0.02: You don't trade for anybody at their peak value. Well, unless you think you've got a legit shot to win a World Series.

 

The Twins need to find the NEXT Realmuto. Easier said than done, I know, but that should be their goal. 

[alarp33]

 

One last try:

 

A poster claimed that good teams never added talent until they were already good.

 

I disagree, both with the theory, and the actual claim. I provided an example of the Cubs, who had young talent but were clearly not good yet. They operated on faith that they would be good, soon, and that adding talent like Lester, before they were actually good, made sense.

 

The Twins have young talent. Including two players who were top 10 level talent. Adding to that, now, makes all the sense in the world.

 

If you don't think the Twins have the young talent to compete in 2019, then what do you advocate? Trade Rosario, Kepler, Berrios, and get what you can for Sano and Buxton?

 

Again, you said the Twins are in the same situation as the Cubs were, with the same level of talent.  Buxton and Sano are NOT prospects anymore. We don't know if they are going to be good or even part of the future (I'm still a big Buxton believer btw). 

 

And again, the Cubs SIGNED Lester, they did not trade top prospects for him which you have proposed the Twins do now for Realmuto. No one arguing with you is against maybe making a FA splash this off season, which is TOTALLY different than trading the farm for a player with 2 years control now

[Thebigalguy]

“This kind of move would allow them to pursue that goal vigorously while lessening their reliance on Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to lead the charge.”

 

How so without Kiriloff, Lewis, et al? If Buxton and Sano flop, the pipeline is loaded. I’m not as excited about Realmuto as many commenters, not at such a price. True enough that Ryan traded away Ramos and took Mauer’s longevity behind the plate for granted without loading the system as a safety net, but I wouldn’t buy this high. Still, it’s an intriguing idea and your logic is persuasive. I just think the price is too high.

[Vanimal46]

Didn't get a chance to read everyone else's comments, but here's my $0.02: You don't trade for anybody at their peak value. Well, unless you think you've got a legit shot to win a World Series.

 

The Twins need to find the NEXT Realmuto. Easier said than done, I know, but that should be their goal.

What makes you believe Realmuto is at peak value? He's still young enough to improve, no?

[Major League Ready]

I don’t know how screwed up a team has to be before we should accept they are not in a window but how anyone can conclude we are just a player away from contending with NY, Boston, Houston, and Cleveland. We have one proven SP that will be here after next year, the bullpen is a mess and the guys who were supposed to be our superstars are in the minors. Yes, lets trade away or top prospects for a catcher that will be here for 2 years and hope all of what ails this team will be fixed by opening day next year. Who cares if trading away those top prospects could result in continued futility for several years. Let’s go all-in on next year.

 

We have control of the core players through 2021-2022. This team can also afford to keep Berrios and one of Buxton or Sano if we have cheap talent like Kirriloff, Lewis, Graterol, etc coming on board as the price of some of our core players  goes up. Managing our assets to be all-in on a 2 year window is a very bad idea. I would prefer a plan that at least has a chance of sustained success. Luckily, Falvey and Levine have been very consistent in their message that sustainability is a primary objective so I trust we won't see them pushing all their chips in, especially when we have a bad hand. You can't bluff when there are several great teams that are set-up for long-term success.

[Mike Sixel]

If trading two great prospects makes the farm barren, then this team has no pipeline. No one is saying they are one player away either, so let's not put words in people's mouths.

 

There is room to trade for this guy, and buy some free agents.

 

For those that say no to a catcher.... Where do you propose spending assets to get better?

 

Not the outfield....

 

Probably not first, or third, depending on how you feel about Sano.

 

Short and second and DH? Name the guys you like more than the best catcher in the game. Not a good player, an elite player. The guys that are available and they will have a shot at.

 

Maybe you think Ramos is a better answer. Of course, they'll have to win the bidding there too. That's possible, but he's not a difference maker.

 

Oh, and when not catching, Realmuto could DH....

Edited July 10, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[Tom Froemming]

 

What makes you believe Realmuto is at peak value? He's still young enough to improve, no?

There are obviously plenty of exceptions, but I'd typically suspect at 27 a player is at his physical peak, especially a catcher.

 

Plus, as we know all too well, any catcher is one bad hit away from becoming not a catcher. Now that doesn't mean you don't invest resources into acquiring a backstop, you still need somebody there, but I think it does change who/what you're willing to give up to acquire one ... unless you think he's the piece that wins you a World Series. Then you do whatever it takes.

[Vanimal46]

There are obviously plenty of exceptions, but I'd typically suspect at 27 a player is at his physical peak, especially a catcher.

 

Plus, as we know all too well, any catcher is one bad hit away from becoming not a catcher. Now that doesn't mean you don't invest resources into acquiring a backstop, you still need somebody there, but I think it does change who/what you're willing to give up to acquire one ... unless you think he's the piece that wins you a World Series. Then you do whatever it takes.

We've been told it takes longer to develop a catcher on the farm. Garver is 2 months older than Realmuto, so are we not supposed to expect improvement from him? It's only going to get worse behind the plate?

[ChrisKnutson]

Sano and any AAA pitcher except Gonsalves plus a mid level A ball guy with upside. Realmuto is worth that and I would do it if the Marlins would take it. I would make the AAA pitcher Gonsalves if Realmuto would commit to another 2-3 year contract past his present free agent date.

 

While I agree with parting ways with Sano, I not even sure if Miami would have any interest in Sano. A better match would be sending Sano to St. Louis for Jordan Hicks.

[TheLeviathan]

What makes you believe Realmuto is at peak value? He's still young enough to improve, no?

He's, by far, the best catcher in baseball for one. And with the position scarcity I can't imagine him being more valuable than now.

[jorgenswest]

Everyone would want 2+ years of Realmuto. Everyone would want 6 years of Lewis.

 

Given the choice, where do you stand?

 

I am with Lewis. Last off-season I was on the other side but that was when Realmuto had a chance to impact three seasons. In spite of the hope of the last few games, the real opportunity is 2019- and 2020.

 

One of the Astros or Nationals will pay up. Packages of several players won’t be enough. The Marlins should seek the very best prospect in return for Realmuto. Lewis may not be enough.

[Vanimal46]

He's, by far, the best catcher in baseball for one. And with the position scarcity I can't imagine him being more valuable than now.

That's a good angle. Do you see the position scarcity getting better any time soon? Perhaps Wilson Contreras beats him out as best C in the league one day but he's firmly top 2 IMO for the foreseeable future.

 

The C position in baseball reminds me of the TE position in football. There's scarcity there too, especially fantasy football, which makes Gronk and Travis Kelce particularly valuable.

 

If you have a distinct advantage at one position, it takes the pressure off needing really good players to make up for the bad player playing C.

Edited July 10, 2018 by Vanimal46

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Offer Sano and Gordon and Gonsalves. We need flamethrowers. I'm not too sure how successful Gonsalves will ultimately be. I'd much rather take a chance on keeping Romero and Brustar G. We have Polanco at SS for now, until Lewis can be ready. Pay Escobar whatever it takes to keep him in Minnesota. He is the heart of this team. Then in 2-3  years Polanco can move to 3B because Escobar will be slowing down in a couple of years.We have Javier who will be ready about the same time as Lewis. We have the hitting machine who was just promoted to the Lookouts and who has hit 348, .309, .347, .385, .320 in the minors and has struck out only 101 times in 1057 at bats and who has made  only 19 errors in 1701 innings at 2B. Arraez can play on the Twins soon. As for 2019 at 2B, try to sign Dozier for a 1 year deal to allow our minor leage middle infielders to get ready. Dozier may want to build up his possible 2020 payday by playing for the Twins one more year and Dozier may want to see how the FA market levels out in 2019, rather than signing his "biggest payday ever" after a  below average (for him) year. That's my offer to Miami for their sorry, slow, fumble fingered, player who plays at a position which unfortunately is very rough on the players' bodies and contains constant risk for great and serious, multiple, DL-resulting injuries.

Edited July 10, 2018 by tarheeltwinsfan

[Tom Froemming]

 

We've been told it takes longer to develop a catcher on the farm. Garver is 2 months older than Realmuto, so are we not supposed to expect improvement from him? It's only going to get worse behind the plate?

Comparing Realmuto with Garver is incredibly unfair at this point, but yes, I would expect that Mitch is at his physical peak right now. 

 

I would expect Garver to improve as he gains experience at the big league level, but not by leaps and bounds. I wrote about how I thought the Twins mishandled Garver almost two years ago, and I think we're seeing some of the problems that's created/how his prime has been wasted to some degree.

[Mike Sixel]

Btw, Lewis won't be in Minnesota until 2021... He's in low A ball. By that time, most of this core is one year from free agency, give or take. I don't think it's the same window ...

[USAFChief]

 

I don’t know how screwed up a team has to be before we should accept they are not in a window but how anyone can conclude we are just a player away from contending with NY, Boston, Houston, and Cleveland. We have one proven SP that will be here after next year, the bullpen is a mess and the guys who were supposed to be our superstars are in the minors. Yes, lets trade away or top prospects for a catcher that will be here for 2 years and hope all of what ails this team will be fixed by opening day next year. Who cares if trading away those top prospects could result in continued futility for several years. Let’s go all-in on next year.

 

We have control of the core players through 2021-2022. This team can also afford to keep Berrios and one of Buxton or Sano if we have cheap talent like Kirriloff, Lewis, Graterol, etc coming on board as the price of some of our core players  goes up. Managing our assets to be all-in on a 2 year window is a very bad idea. I would prefer a plan that at least has a chance of sustained success. Luckily, Falvey and Levine have been very consistent in their message that sustainability is a primary objective so I trust we won't see them pushing all their chips in, especially when we have a bad hand. You can't bluff when there are several great teams that are set-up for long-term success.

If we're "not in a window," why do we care if we have control of "core players" through 2021-22?

 

Would it be because...we're "in a window?"

 

Or would it be that Lewis/Graterol/Gordon/Kiriloff et al aren't "core players" at all.

 

They're prospects.

[jkcarew]

Tough decision, made tougher by the Buxton/Sano situations.  Doubtful this team can challenge in the AL in the next couple of years, even with Realmuto, if Buxton and Sano aren't the good versions we've glimpsed.  And, if they ARE the good versions, do you really need Realmuto?  Probably not (although, you'd still need more than we're currently getting at the position).

 

Aside from the strategic considerations, if I think Lewis is going to stick at SS and be average+ defensively...I don't know if this is the current read, or not...but if it is, I'm not trading Lewis for 2 years of anyone not named Mike Trout.

[Brandon]

Twins catchers hit .231/.335/.383 last season and the Twins scored the 7th most runs in the major leagues

And this year its in the .500s the .718 OPS is a huge improvement. .800 even more and Realmutto is currently in the .900s

[Tom Froemming]

OK, I got a chance to glance through the previous comments. I think the problem is a lot of people are thinking the options are either you sell the farm for Realmuto or you're stuck with Castro/Garver/Wilson.

 

The Twins should have plenty of payroll room to go out and sign a Yasmani Grandal or a Wilson Ramos this offseason. Are they as good as Realmuto? No, but they also wouldn't cost you any prospects. Plus, here are their numbers over the past two seasons combined:

 

Realmuto .291/.341/.484, .352 wOBA, 120 wRC+

Grandal .246/.320/.456, .332 wOBA, 108 wRC+

Ramos .278/.319/.461, .331 wOBA, 111 wRC+

 

And according to Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs Above Average, Grandal is the best defensive catcher in baseball this season at +10.9. Realmuto is at +2.2 and Ramos right at average, 0.0.

[Mike Sixel]

 

OK, I got a chance to glance through the previous comments. I think the problem is a lot of people are thinking the options are either you sell the farm for Realmuto or you're stuck with Castro/Garver/Wilson.

 

The Twins should have plenty of payroll room to go out and sign a Yasmani Grandal or a Wilson Ramos this offseason. Are they as good as Realmuto? No, but they also wouldn't cost you any prospects. Plus, here are their numbers over the past two seasons combined:

 

Realmuto .291/.341/.484, .352 wOBA, 120 wRC+

Grandal .246/.320/.456, .332 wOBA, 108 wRC+

Ramos .278/.319/.461, .331 wOBA, 111 wRC+

 

And according to Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs Above Average, Grandal is the best defensive catcher in baseball this season at +10.9. Realmuto is at +2.2 and Ramos right at average, 0.0.

 

Certainly reasonable options. Given position scarcity, they'll cost around 15-20MM per year....ready to pay that?

[TheLeviathan]

 

That's a good angle. Do you see the position scarcity getting better any time soon? Perhaps Wilson Contreras beats him out as best C in the league one day but he's firmly top 2 IMO for the foreseeable future.

The C position in baseball reminds me of the TE position in football. There's scarcity there too, especially fantasy football, which makes Gronk and Travis Kelce particularly valuable.

If you have a distinct advantage at one position, it takes the pressure off needing really good players to make up for the bad player playing C.

 

Possibly....and hda this year gone as planned I'd be in on the idea.  But we need to focus on selling, not buying.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Certainly reasonable options. Given position scarcity, they'll cost around 15-20MM per year....ready to pay that?

I am always ready to spend somebody else's money  

 

But seriously, the Twins have so little on the books and this team should continue to be carried by young, cost-controlled players for the next few seasons, so overpaying for a few players via free agency shouldn't be an issue. Plus, free agency was really strange this past season. Maybe we're seeing prices go down, who knows.

[alarp33]

 

Certainly reasonable options. Given position scarcity, they'll cost around 15-20MM per year....ready to pay that?

 

Considering the years would likely be low at those yearly figures, absolutely. The Twins have what, $30 million in commitments for next year?

 

BTW I would hammer the under on Grandal getting up to $20 million / year

Edited July 10, 2018 by alarp33

[Mike Sixel]

 

I am always ready to spend somebody else's money

 

But seriously, the Twins have so little on the books and this team should continue to be carried by young, cost-controlled players for the next few seasons, so overpaying for a few players via free agency shouldn't be an issue. Plus, free agency was really strange this past season. Maybe we're seeing prices go down, who knows.

 

It went down for "meh" players....but there is no evidence it is down for good players.

 

Having money, and winning bidding wars is very different. They spent a lot, but NONE of it was in the bidding war zone at all, which is maybe why they are "meh" for the most part.

[Kelly Vance]

I don't deal Romero or Lewis for a two year guy. Nope.

 

We have, with Cave 4 outfielders. So we could part with the Killer and Gordon and a bubble arm. 

[slash129]

I like Realmuto and have a Marlins-fan brother who hopes he's the one guy that Jeter holds on to as the veteran leader of that club long term.

 

With that said, I wouldn't sell the farm for him, and I certainly wouldn't dangle Romero, Graterol and, to a slightly lesser degree, Thorpe to land him.  

 

Lewis appears to be a face-of-the-franchise-type talent, but I loathe the day that the Twins have to deal with Boras to keep him around. I still probably wouldn't trade him.

 

If I wanted to make an attempt at Realmuto, knowing I may have to walk away, I'd start with (#2) Gordon, (#3) Kirilloff and (#4) Gonsalves, then I'd be willing to part with one of Diaz, Wade, Blankenhorn or Baddoo to bring it together or possibly bring back a useful bullpen arm.  If that didn't do it, and it very well may not, I walk away.

 

"Berrios/Romero/Gibson/Thorpe/Slegers 2020" w/ Littell providing rotation depth, LeBlanc getting those cup-of-coffee spot starts and Graterol/Wells knocking at the door for their shot at the show.

[Nick Nelson]

I was hoping I'd enjoy reading the comments on this one and I really have thus far. Thanks to all for the thoughtful input. Keep it coming!

[TFRazor]

 

Mejia, May, and/or Busenitz would be an insult to the Marlins. We are never going to be able to make a trade with second or third tier players included. Like Doc said, the trade is going to hurt if it’s going to work. The position the Twins are in right now, IMHO no one is off limits!

Having a "no one is off limits" operating model is exactly how the tigers ended up where they are now. An old team with nothing really in the pipeline to replace the aging stars of yesteryear. If you're cool with attempting to restock the system every 3 years that's fine, but I would like to at least keep a modicum of stability. I'm not trading 3 or 4 great prospects for 2 years of somebody else. Maybe 1 great and a couple good, but there are a couple of guys who in my opinion are definitely untouchable

[KirbyDome89]

 

I actually think the Twins’ need for a great catcher is greater than the pitching needs right now. I would do Kirilloff + Graterol for Realmuto with blinking a few times, but I’d do it.

This is the trouble with trade discussions. We all want but when it comes time to give we all get too squeamish. You have to give to get, especially for a big piece that will be a difference maker.

High level arms are going to take this team further than an elite catcher. The Twins can get by with an average catcher and good to elite position players; they aren't going anywhere in the postseason without multiple high end arms. This organization has shown no desire to add those types of pitchers in FA so growing it is our only hope at the moment. That doesn't mean Romero or Graterol will be top of the rotation guys but right now they're the best shot this team has at building a rotation that won't be bounced in a divisional round matchup. 

 

The question is whether what you're giving up is worth potentially only 2 years of service. 

[caninatl04]

I already said I think the best window for the Twins is 2020-2022. Buxton and Sano as if now will be free agents after 2021 and Berrios and Rosario are under control until 2022. Those are the four guys from the current roster that will make a difference in that span, and could be extended to lengthen that window beyond 2022 with the rest of the guys who will be coming up to support them.

 

Unfortunately, this is the same window for the Tigers and certainly the White Sox.