Article: Real Deal: What Would It Take To Get J.T. Realmuto?

[USAFChief]

 

So you are confident they are real? You want to trade for Realmuto now it seems. While 1 is in A ball and 1 is in AAA, that is a heck of a gamble to make. 

I think the gamble is assuming they are NOT real.

[Brandon]

This is maybe a topic for a new thread. But people seem very hung up on Realmuto. Why has no one brought up trading for DeGrom or Syndergaard right now? I don't think the returns the Mets would get from either of them will be all that different than the return needed for Realmuto.

 

Doesn't an Ace to go with Berrios, Romero and Gibson go a longer way to building a real contender next season?

Because the offense collapsed this year and C is one of the biggest culprits.

[ashbury]

If Kirilloff could be the centerpiece, as this article started off having me thinking was the suggestion, I'd be all for it. Corner outfielders are valuable but not critical to a team's plans. And this team's rosters have been sclerotic for several years because of an overabundance of corner types - "and if that doesn't work out, he can always DH". You can only have one DH per game, and the roster gets clogged. We saw it in The Ryan Doumit Era, we still see it now.

 

Up-the-middle prospects are a different story, and starting pitching in particular is the coin of the realm.

 

And I'll keep repeating, IMO a stud catcher is a luxury for only the richest or most complete teams. The best catcher in the world doesn't play every game, and if he's that good then you'll want to DH him for his days off, and then you can't house a full-time DH, and pretty soon you're juggling the 25-man roster, with 3 catchers as the end-game the manager wants to reach. A stud catcher is great, but needs to be the final piece to the puzzle, such that the rest of your roster is good enough that he can be benched on his days off - and a part-timer being paid full-time wages is, as I said, a luxury.

 

[alarp33]

 

Because the offense collapsed this year and C is one of the biggest culprits.

 

Twins catchers hit .231/.335/.383 last season and the Twins scored the 7th most runs in the major leagues

[alarp33]

 

I think the gamble is assuming they are NOT real.

 

Lost me here. Holding on to Lewis and Kiriloff is a gamble?

[Nick Nelson]

 

He could get hit by a car tomorrow crossing the street. Of course there's no guarantee to health. But why are people pretending he IS going to have an effect?   Catchers have arthroscopic surgery all the time. They come back perfectly fine all the time. 

 

People are confusing him being out for this season as having had a major surgery and that's simply not the case

Yes, we all know how smoothly Joe Mauer returned from that "minor" arthroscopic knee surgery in 2010.

 

It's odd to me that you're defending this stance so vigorously based on the fact that you, a non-MLB catcher, have had knee surgeries in the past. Respectfully, I don't really think that makes you an expert, and the idea that an injury described by the team's own website as "much more serious than expected," requiring a surgery that cost him the rest of the season in early May, isn't major is kinda silly. Repeating your argument again and again without evidence or factual support isn't convincing.

[Monkeypaws]

The only way anybody gets Miami to part with Realmuto is overpayment.

 

I don't think the Twins are in any position to overpay, regardless of the return.

[Nick Nelson]

 

If Buxton and Sano, with the current MLB youngsters and high minors help, are not the answer, there is no window.

 

If they are real, the window is now.

 

The perfect storm of misfortune that 2018 shouldn't cloud the picture of whether or not the Twins should plan on 2019-2020 as being the time to go for it.

Yes, this. The Twins haven't won 90 games in eight years. This is the window of contention they've been building toward. I'm just tired of continually pushing back the goal posts and hoping the next wave of prospects will be the ones to push them through.  

 

This system has as much depth as it has at any time I can remember. The Twins won't be gutting their future chances by dealing away a couple of top-end pieces. Players like Realmuto are VERY rarely available on the trade market.

 

It's a situation to take advantage of, IMO. 

[alarp33]

 

Yes, we all know how smoothly Joe Mauer returned from that "minor" arthroscopic knee surgery in 2010.

 

It's odd to me that you're defending this stance so vigorously based on the fact that you, a non-MLB catcher, have had knee surgeries in the past. Respectfully, I don't really think that makes you an expert, and the idea that an injury described by the team's own website as "much more serious than expected," requiring a surgery that cost him the rest of the season in early May, isn't major is kinda silly. Repeating your argument again and again without evidence or factual support isn't convincing.

 

Joe Mauer is 6'6", he was always going to have trouble catching long term.  Comparing a mid-Dec surgery to a Mid-May surgery when it comes to being ready for the following season is pretty silly btw

 

It has nothing to do with my knee surgeries, I am not a professional athlete. It has everything to do with the fact I understand what the procedure he had done was and it's very clear you and others in this thread don't, evidenced by the fact you keep calling a 30 minute procedure where they don't even open you up "major".  It's a long recovery, 3-4 months to full health, because you need to give it 6 weeks of not bending fully so the stitches can heal. 

 

FYI so you know for the future the "much more serious than expected" line - it means the surgery required him to have his meniscus repaired instead of removing the tear. Aka - worse for 2017. It is much better for his long term knee health that it was repaired

Edited July 10, 2018 by alarp33

[Andrew Thares]

 

Not to pick on you or make this personal, but I feel like I could have read this exact past five years ago, speaking about 2016-2018 as "the window."  When all that young talent reaches the majors and is dominating.

 

And four years ago about 2017-2019 as "the window."

 

etc etc etc

 

I think the better option is to build your own window, rather than waiting for a window to build itself. Not to mention there's no guarantee you'll have trade opportunites available in 2020, or the assets to acquire such trade opportunities if they do exist.

If it is a better option to just build yourself your own window as opposed to waiting, then why did an overwhelming majority of teams that are competitive right now not do it that way? Sure some of these teams have traded for marquee players or signed some big name free agents, but they all did that after they had an established group of players they had developed themselves.

 

The Astros and Cubs weren’t out trading for or signing big name players before they were competitive. Even the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers were mostly built up on either prospects or players who they acquired before they were any good (I.E. Hicks, Didi, Turner & Taylor).

 

If even the teams in those big markets feel that the best way to build a roster is by first establishing a young core, then what chance do the Twins have of trying to build a team by giving up large amounts of their assets in order to do so?

 

Once the team has established themselves as a good team, then it is time to start making moves like this, but not now.

 

[USAFChief]

 

If it is a better option to just build yourself you own window as opposed to waiting why did an overwhelming majority of teams that are competitive right now not do it that way? Sure some of these teams have traded for marquee players or signed some big name free agents, but they all did that after they had an established group of players they had developed themselves.

 

The Astros and Cubs weren’t out trading for or signing big name players before they were competitive. Even the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers were mostly built up on either prospects or players who they acquired before they were any good (I.E. Hicks, Didi, Turner & Taylor).

 

If even the teams in those big markets feel that the best way to build a roster is by first establishing a young core, then what chance do the Twins have of trying to build a team by giving up large amounts of their assets in order to do so?

 

Once the team has established themselves as a good team, then it is time to start making moves like this, but not now.

Off the top of my head, I believe the Cubs signed Jon Lester to a $150 deal in December of 2014, coming off a 71-91 season. I bet I can find more examples if I spend 5 minutes looking them up.

 

Perhaps they felt they already had the pieces needed to compete, and were simply adding to it.

 

Sort of like the Twins, with Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco, etc.  The exact guys they've been building this "window" around for half a decade.

 

I just have never agreed with the philosophy of waiting until you're really good, before you try to get really really good.

 

IMO, that's how you spend decades waiting to get really good. Tha's not how the Yankees and Red Sox got where they are. They assess their needs, and then fill them, by whatever means necessary. Or at least try.

[ChrisKnutson]

If the Twins are as serious about contending as they say they are, they have to show the willingness to do whatever it takes to acquire Realmuto and sign Machado for the 2019 season, no excuses.

 

 

I’m sorry, but we shouldn’t expect anything less than a lineup like this next year.

 

 

CF- Byron Buxton

C- J.T. Realmuto

SS- Manny Machado

LF- Eddie Rosario

3rd- Eduardo Escobar

1st- Kennys Vargas (Maybe Hanley Ramirez?)

DH- Mitch Garver

2nd- Jorge Polanco

RF- Max Kepler

[Steve Lein]

Thinking about this, and as good as Realmuto is, he's not the guy I'd pay the price for in the current situation.

 

If he was three years younger, I'd be all over it. I don't want a guy for two years at the price it will take, which lets be serious here, that's probably Lewis as a headliner or Graterol and Romero along with some other top 15/20 guys.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Joe Mauer is 6'6", he was always going to have trouble catching long term.  Comparing a mid-Dec surgery to a Mid-May surgery when it comes to being ready for the following season is pretty silly btw

Ah, good thing Castro is two inches shorter and thus very much assured to have no issues returning from a full meniscus repair — in a knee where he's already had meniscus damage and a torn ACL — at age 31. 

 

Of course, the elephant in the room here is that Castro wasn't especially good before going down. His upside at this point is average part-time catcher who will be on his way after 2019. 

[Andrew Thares]

 

Off the top of my head, I believe the Cubs signed Jon Lester to a $150 deal in December of 2014, coming off a 71-91 season.

The Cubs were also getting Lester for 6 years at the beginning of what was going to be a 5 or 6 year window. The Cubs knew that many of their top prospects were coming up in 2015, and made that move knowing they were ready to compete. Which was evident by the 98 win season they put up that year and the 103 win season they put up after that.

 

The Twins won't have many of their best players coming up until 2020 at the earliest, which is when Realmuto's contract ends.

[alarp33]

 

Ah, good thing Castro is two inches shorter and thus very much assured to have no issues returning from a full meniscus repair — in a knee where he's already had meniscus damage and a torn ACL — at age 31. 

 

Of course, the elephant in the room here is that Castro wasn't especially good before going down. His upside at this point is average part-time catcher who will be on his way after 2019. 

 

Again, "full mensicus repair" is a good thing for his long term knee health. I don't know why you keep using that as a negative. If he had the tear shaved instead, he'd likely be back playing by now but a much bigger question mark in the future. 

 

With 9 months to recover before Spring training he will be 100% going into next season. Whether he can hit, who knows but probably not

[Vanimal46]

The Twins won't have many of their best players coming up until 2020 at the earliest, which is when Realmuto's contract ends.

This seems like putting the cart before the horse if I'm reading this correctly.

 

Lewis, Kiriloff, and Graterol are going to be better players than Buxton, Sano, and Berrios?

[USAFChief]

 

The Cubs were also getting Lester for 6 years at the beginning of what was going to be a 5 or 6 year window. The Cubs knew that many of their top prospects were coming up in 2015, and made that move knowing they were ready to compete. Which was evident by the 98 win season they put up that year and the 103 win season they put up after that.

 

The Twins won't have many of their best players coming up until 2020 at the earliest, which is when Realmuto's contract ends.

So they had faith in their future, despite their current record?

 

Whereas the Twins, who have by all means at least the same level of prospects currently in the big leagues or on the cusp, should bet against their future? They're not "ready to compete?" 

 

I'd be willing to bet I could find multiple examples of your post (not necessarily by you) from 2015, advocating to wait until Sano, Buxton et al were in the big leagues, and then "go for it." 

 

It doesn't work that way. Add talent when you can.

[Andrew Thares]

 

This seems like putting the cart before the horse if I'm reading this correctly.

Lewis, Kiriloff, and Graterol are going to be better players than Buxton, Sano, and Berrios?

Maybe, maybe not, but those players aren't mutually exclusive of each other. If you wait a couple years all 6 of those guys could be on the roster together.

 

And with more an more young guys coming up, the Twins will be able to afford to sign some of the current players to extensions/support the roster with free agent moves.

[alarp33]

 

 

 

Whereas the Twins, who have by all means at least the same level of prospects currently in the big leagues or on the cusp, should bet against their future? They're not "ready to compete?" 

 

 

The Cubs had the #1, #4, and #14 prospects in baseball all ready to start the 2015 season in Chicago. "same level of prospects"?

 

Sano is in A ball, Buxton is in AAA

[USAFChief]

 

The Cubs had the #1, #4, and #14 prospects in baseball all ready to start the 2015 season in Chicago. "same level of prospects"?

 

Sano is in A ball, Buxton is in AAA

Sano and Buxton were at the same level of prospect status as the Cubs prospects. Buxton was a consensus top prospect in all of baseball.

 

Where Sano and Buxton are currently, is irrelevant to the discussion of what the Cubs did in December of 2014.

[alarp33]

 

Sano and Buxton were at the same level of prospect status as the Cubs prospects. Buxton was a consensus top prospect in all of baseball.

 

Where Sano and Buxton are currently, is irrelevant to the discussion of what the Cubs did in December of 2014.

 

Where they are currently is irrelevant? Huh? Bryant was not the top prospect in baseball in 2010 and floundering in AAA when the Cubs signed Lester. He was the current #1 prospect in baseball 

 

BTW, there is a giant difference in risking money - which the Cubs did - and trading top prospects. 

[Vanimal46]

Maybe, maybe not, but those players aren't mutually exclusive of each other. If you wait a couple years all 6 of those guys could be on the roster together.

 

And with more an more young guys coming up, the Twins will be able to afford to sign some of the current players to extensions/support the roster with free agent moves.

At that point, Buxton, Sano, and Berrios are 2-3 years away from free agency. Best to wait until the next next wave of prospects comes up to supplement the prospects of 2020.

 

And by 2024 this core will be gone, the wave of prospects we were waiting on in 2020 is 2-3 years away from free agency. Best to wait until the next next next wave of prospects to come up in 2028 before making a big trade.

[Andrew Thares]

 

Maybe, maybe not, but those players aren't mutually exclusive of each other. If you wait a couple years all 6 of those guys could be on the roster together.

 

And with more an more young guys coming up, the Twins will be able to afford to sign some of the current players to extensions/support the roster with free agent moves.

The Cubs also had what was considered an historically great farm system, nearly all of which was in AAA at the time. The Cubs also weren't trading away assets to get Jon Lester, they were spending some of their large amount of payroll flexibility that they were coming into.

 

If the Twins want to try a similar approach this winter and sign a big name free agent with all their payroll flexibility I am all for it, but what I don't want to do is give up some of their young assets that could be very cheap and very good for the Twins for an extended period of time for a guy who just gets you a little bit closer to being competitive now, but doesn't by any means get you over the hump.

[jtkoupal]

If it doesn't involve Royce Lewis, do it.

[USAFChief]

 

Where they are currently is irrelevant? 

Yes. To the discussion underway, yes.

 

A poster declared that top teams never added big names through free agency or trade until they were already good.

 

That is clearly not true. One example off the top of my head was the Cubs, who signed Lester before they were good. They added talent when available, hoping that talent would help the talent they already had on hand in the near future.

 

And to repeat, the Twins might as well operate under the assumption their current crop of players, highlighted by Buxton and Sano, are going to work out. If they don't, there is no real damage done by adding to what will be a long drought anyway. 

 

 

[Andrew Thares]

 

At that point, Buxton, Sano, and Berrios are 2-3 years away from free agency. Best to wait until the next next wave of prospects comes up to supplement the prospects of 2020.

And by 2024 this core will be gone, the wave of prospects we were waiting on in 2020 is 2-3 years away from free agency. Best to wait until the next next next wave of prospects to come up in 2028 before making a big trade.

I already said I think the best window for the Twins is 2020-2022. Buxton and Sano as if now will be free agents after 2021 and Berrios and Rosario are under control until 2022. Those are the four guys from the current roster that will make a difference in that span, and could be extended to lengthen that window beyond 2022 with the rest of the guys who will be coming up to support them.

[alarp33]

 

Yes. To the discussion underway, yes.

 

A poster declared that top teams never added big names through free agency or trade until they were already good.

 

That is clearly not true. One example off the top of my head was the Cubs, who signed Lester before they were good. They added talent when available, hoping that talent would help the talent they already had on hand in the near future.

 

And to repeat, the Twins might as well operate under the assumption their current crop of players, highlighted by Buxton and Sano, are going to work out. If they don't, there is no real damage done by adding to what will be a long drought anyway. 

 

None of this makes sense. Mauer was a top prospect too, why aren't you including him in your Twins comparison? Again, the Cubs top prospects were CURRENT top prospects ready to start 2015 with the team. What Buxton and Sano were ranked in 2014 has ZERO relevancy to the 2019 Twins team

Edited July 10, 2018 by alarp33

[USAFChief]

 

None of this makes sense. Mauer was a top prospect too, why aren't you including him in your Twins comparison? Again, the Cubs top prospects were CURRENT top prospects ready to start 2015 with the team. What Buxton and Sano were ranked in 2014 has ZERO relevancy to the 2019 Twins team

One last try:

 

A poster claimed that good teams never added talent until they were already good.

 

I disagree, both with the theory, and the actual claim. I provided an example of the Cubs, who had young talent but were clearly not good yet. They operated on faith that they would be good, soon, and that adding talent like Lester, before they were actually good, made sense.

 

The Twins have young talent. Including two players who were top 10 level talent. Adding to that, now, makes all the sense in the world.

 

If you don't think the Twins have the young talent to compete in 2019, then what do you advocate? Trade Rosario, Kepler, Berrios, and get what you can for Sano and Buxton?

 

 

[Andrew Thares]

 

Yes. To the discussion underway, yes.

 

A poster declared that top teams never added big names through free agency or trade until they were already good.

 

That is clearly not true. One example off the top of my head was the Cubs, who signed Lester before they were good. They added talent when available, hoping that talent would help the talent they already had on hand in the near future.

 

And to repeat, the Twins might as well operate under the assumption their current crop of players, highlighted by Buxton and Sano, are going to work out. If they don't, there is no real damage done by adding to what will be a long drought anyway. 

I already said that if the Twins were to make a similar move this winter to the one the Cubs made for Jon Lester I would be all for it, even if the Twins finish at 71-91 this year because they will be in a similar situation to what the Cubs were in at the time they signed Lester.

 

The Cubs had a long term plan, that centered around them beginning their competitive window in 2015. They knew this, heck everyone knew this. That is why the Cubs had the 6th best odds to win the World Series that year at 16-1, despite going 71-91 the year prior.