Article: Real Deal: What Would It Take To Get J.T. Realmuto?

[Squirrel]

Giving up pitching like Romero or even Graterol kind of seems counter productive. I get that nothing is promised with Graterol, but this organization needs pitching help as much as they need a catcher so giving up either on top of Kiriloff might be a bit much for me. 

 

It really comes down to whether the Twins can, or in reality are willing, to extend or resign Realmuto. We're not going to like what they have to give up to get him. I can probably live with the price if they lock him up beyond 2020.

 

I actually think the Twins’ need for a great catcher is greater than the pitching needs right now. I would do Kirilloff + Graterol for Realmuto with blinking a few times, but I’d do it.

 

This is the trouble with trade discussions. We all want but when it comes time to give we all get too squeamish. You have to give to get, especially for a big piece that will be a difference maker.

[Mr. Brooks]

I hate it when a thread likes this comes out, because everyone, including me, would really love to get Realmuto! Don’t think the Twins will do it- it just isn’t in the team’s DNA.

But IF they DID, it would be a sea change for this organization.

Here’s what I would do. I’d first meet with Realmuto to see if he’d sign a 3 year extension for $60 million. Think I’m crazy? The Twins paid Mauer $24million/year for 8(?) years.

If he agreed, we’d have him locked up for 5 years. I don’t know anything about him personally, but he could be the face of the franchise!

I’d include Lewis if I had to.

Something like:

Lewis

Gonsalves

+another Top 20 prospect

 

I said in an earlier post that I’d do Sano for Realmuto even up. Doubt the Marlins would do that, though.

But I agree with Nick- someone is going to make this deal- might as well be us!

If the Twins got caught negotiating a contract extension with another team's player, you'd see the biggest sanctions we've ever seen in pro sports, and Falvey and Levine would never work in a baseball FO again.

[alarp33]

 

I’d rather not give up Romero, wouldn’t Gordon, Gonsalves, and Thorpe be enough already?

 

Not even close. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

On an earlier thread, poster dbminn estimated Realmuto's net value over the next 2.5 seasons (performance minus salary) around $60 mil.

 

Fangraphs came up with some prospect value estimates here:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

 

Virtually impossible to get a deal done without including an elite position player prospect (55+ FV), of which the Twins only have Lewis.

 

You can try to pile up prospects from the next tier (45-50 FV), but MLB trades rarely work that way. Plus that level of prospect isn't that scarce of a commodity (there were 97 50 FV prospects in Fangraphs preseason lists), so virtually every team in baseball could build a package around 2-3 of them for the best catcher in the game if that was all it took. And in any case, the Marlins already have more 50 FV prospects (7) than any team in baseball, so they would stand to gain the least from adding more at that level.

 

Maybe the Marlins don't get a better offer this month, but that doesn't mean they have to accept it. If the Lucroy trade is a guide, then equivalent offers will still be available to them this winter and next summer, at least.

Edited July 10, 2018 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

If the Twins got caught negotiating a contract extension with another team's player, you'd see the biggest sanctions we've ever seen in pro sports, and Falvey and Levine would never work in a baseball FO again.

I think the implication is that we'd agree on the framework of a deal with Miami and get permission to talk extension. Like the Mets and Johan Santana.

[Thrylos]

You got to trade from excess not shortage.  At this point the Twins have nobody with top of the rotation staff, other than maybe Graterol.  Romero will likely be better than Berrios.  You can just not give them away.

 

Frankly, I'd start the conversation with the consensus former number 1 prospect in baseball.  The Twins can use Realmuto more than Buxton (who is under 3+ years of team control) right now.  If that's not enough, I'd add one of the LF hitting OFs in the minors (Wade, Kirilloff) and maybe even some with mid-end rotation ceiling like Gonsalves or Littell, and I'd try to pry a bullpen piece from them as well like Barraclough who is about to get very expensive.

[mazeville]

I certainly do not trade Fernando Romero for two years of J.T. Realmuto. We might need catching, I don't disagree with that at all. But as I recall we also need a top starter and Romero has the stuff to pair with Berrios to sit atop the pitching staff for a long time. 

 

Romero and Kirilloff for Realmuto is too expensive in any event. Wait it out. 

 

[Blackjack]

 

The Twins have a core of young pitchers to go with Berrios in Romero, Graterol and Gonsalves. Why break that up for 2 years of a good catcher. I'm all in with Mitch Garver. And with Sano and Buxton failing badly I am not going to trade potential stars in Alex Kirilloff or Royce Lewis. Even as this year has been a fail it's easy to see a quick turn around in a year of two if Sano and Buxton get right and you have Lewis, Kirilloff, Gordon and Rooker knocking on the door. 

This.

 

1) Castro and Garver can get the job done, other teams have won World Series without great catchers.

2) Good pitching is what wins, you need to keep any potential aces like Romero.

3) Will one very good catcher put the Twins over the hump?? I don't think so, plus you're putting all your eggs in one basket, if he gets hurt, then what?

[Blackjack]

The Timberwolves and the Jimmy Butler come to mind here. They traded 3 young talented players for JB, he came in an lit a fire under the T-wolves, but then he got hurt and they struggled to make the playoffs. Now they're facing the fact that he is only signed for one more year, if he doesn't resign with them, the T-wolves are &*()*(*&, facing mediocrity for many years because they gave up their young player pipeline.

 

Is that the model we want the Twins to follow?

 

Trade for a player like Realmuto when you're closer to contention, Washington is there, the Twins aren't.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

IDK... Garver has a wRC+ of 133 since 6/1.

How's his glove?

[olivia11]

If the proposed trade is Romero + Kirilloff + Graterol for Realmuto, I'm definitely not making that trade.

 

It's really a decision between the following options: 

 

Option 1: 

-5 years of control of Romero

-top end, trending up prospects in Kirilloff and Graterol in the system and eventually 6 years of control (to join winning window later or be used as future trade pieces when Twins are contending for championship)

-Jason Castro as starting catcher in 2019

-Mitch Garver as backup in 2019 (or if really don't believe in his defense, sign a defensive-first back up)

 

Option 2: 

-Realmuto for 2019 and 2020 (possibility for signing long-term but that is far from a guarantee and would likely be very expensive) 

-Jason Castro as backup catcher in 2019

 

 

I think you can make a solid argument that option 1 benefits the Twins more than option 2 does.

 

I would. Especially considering that cost-controlled young starting pitching (Romero, maybe Graterol too) is arguably the most valuable resource in baseball right now.

[Vanimal46]

If the proposed trade is Romero + Kirilloff + Graterol for Realmuto, I'm definitely not making that trade.

 

It's really a decision between the following options:

 

Option 1:

-5 years of control of Romero

-top end, trending up prospects in Kirilloff and Graterol in the system and eventually 6 years of control (to join winning window later or be used as future trade pieces when Twins are contending for championship)

-Jason Castro as starting catcher in 2019

-Mitch Garver as backup in 2019 (or if really don't believe in his defense, sign a defensive-first back up)

 

Option 2:

-Realmuto for 2019 and 2020 (possibility for signing long-term but that is far from a guarantee and would likely be very expensive)

-Jason Castro as backup catcher in 2019

 

 

I think you can make a solid argument that option 1 benefits the Twins more than option 2 does.

 

I would. Especially considering that cost-controlled young starting pitching (Romero, maybe Graterol too) is arguably the most valuable resource in baseball right now.

Option 1 requires a lot of hope that things work out. And you want to rely on Castro starting again after a torn ACL?

[alarp33]

 

Option 1 requires a lot of hope that things work out. And you want to rely on Castro starting again after a torn ACL?

 

He didn't tear his ACL, are we predicting that is going to happen? 

 

I've written on here multiple times, Castro did not have a major injury, I don't get why people continue this narrative that he is completely cooked.  Yes he is aging, yes he's missing most of this year. But his health is not a factor in 2019

Edited July 10, 2018 by alarp33

[USAFChief]

Prospects. 

 

We didn't need to add bullpen help for the last umpteen years, either, because we had all that can't-miss reliever talent in the minor leagues just waiting to be harvested.

 

An overabundance, actually. There wouldn't even be room on the 25 man roster for all that talent.

 

 

[USAFChief]

 

He didn't tear his ACL, are we predicting that is going to happen? 

 

I've written on here multiple times, Castro did not have a major injury, I don't get why people continue this narrative that he is completely cooked.  Yes he is aging, yes he's missing most of this year. But his health is not a factor in 2019

A catcher with knee surgury serious enough to miss almost an entire season, and health isn't a factor in 2019??

[Vanimal46]

He didn't tear his ACL, are we predicting that is going to happen?

 

I've written on here multiple times, Castro did not have a major injury, I don't get why people continue this narrative that he is completely cooked. Yes he is aging, yes he's missing most of this year. But his health is not a factor in 2019

Meniscus. I don't understand your logic. The rehab is taking 5-6 months and he's missing the rest of the season. That's not a major injury?

[alarp33]

 

A catcher with knee surgury serious enough to miss almost an entire season, and health isn't a factor in 2019??

 

He had arthroscopic surgery in May. He will be fully recovered by Sept or Oct. No, his health will not be a factor (in regards to this surgery).  People here clearly con't understand the type of injury / surgery he had, and that's fine. But let's not make stuff up like his return is a question next year

[alarp33]

 

Meniscus. I don't understand your logic. The rehab is taking 5-6 months and he's missing the rest of the season. That's not a major injury?

 

It will be around 4 months of pretty easy rehab, it's a very minor surgery.  He'll be totally cleared by doctors a solid 5-6 months before Spring Training. 

 

No, it's not a major surgery.  

 

- someone who had the same surgery last October (and has had 6 other knee surgeries)

[USAFChief]

 

He had arthroscopic surgery in May. He will be fully recovered by Sept or Oct. No, his health will not be a factor (in regards to this surgery).  People here clearly con't understand the type of injury / surgery he had, and that's fine. But let's not make stuff up like his return is a question next year

Oh he'll return.

 

But let's not pretend we can guarantee there will be no effect on a guy who makes his living squatting on that knee for 4 hours a day.

[alarp33]

 

Oh he'll return.

 

But let's not pretend we can guarantee there will be no effect on a guy who makes his living squatting on that knee for 4 hours a day.

 

He could get hit by a car tomorrow crossing the street. Of course there's no guarantee to health. But why are people pretending he IS going to have an effect?   Catchers have arthroscopic surgery all the time. They come back perfectly fine all the time. 

 

People are confusing him being out for this season as having had a major surgery and that's simply not the case

[Tibs]

I'm not a fan of this trade. To start with, the catcher offensive stats would be a lot better if Bobby Wilson hadn't been so terrible. He is clearly not part of the plans after this season. Also, the Twins have too many question marks for this trade to make sense.

 

Who is playing 1B next year? Who is playing 2B?

 

What if Buxton and Kepler don't develop offensively? What about Sano?

 

I think it is safe to assume Romero is in the plans to be in the rotation next year. Who takes his spot? How does the rotation get better?

 

I also don't like the idea of giving up those kinds of prospects for a catcher. People say Romero is one pitch away from needing TJ again. Well, Realmuto is one foul tip off the mask away from never being the same offensively again (see: Joe Mauer). 

[Andrew Thares]

If the Twins were in a window that they knew was only going to be open for the next couple of years I would be all for this move, but personally I don't think that is the case for the Twins. With the way the organization is shaping up, I think the best chance for the Twins to be serious contenders is during the 2020-2022 window when all of these young prospects start coming up to support the young core that is at the majors now.

[jorgenswest]

If the proposed trade is Romero + Kirilloff + Graterol for Realmuto, I'm definitely not making that trade.

 

It's really a decision between the following options: 

 

Option 1: 

-5 years of control of Romero

-top end, trending up prospects in Kirilloff and Graterol in the system and eventually 6 years of control (to join winning window later or be used as future trade pieces when Twins are contending for championship)

-Jason Castro as starting catcher in 2019

-Mitch Garver as backup in 2019 (or if really don't believe in his defense, sign a defensive-first back up)

 

Option 2: 

-Realmuto for 2019 and 2020 (possibility for signing long-term but that is far from a guarantee and would likely be very expensive) 

-Jason Castro as backup catcher in 2019

 

 

I think you can make a solid argument that option 1 benefits the Twins more than option 2 does.

 

I would. Especially considering that cost-controlled young starting pitching (Romero, maybe Graterol too) is arguably the most valuable resource in baseball right now.

I agree. I don’t want to part with Lewis. However wouldn’t every teams option 1 look better? The Twins would never try to acquire that top tier player in trade.

[USAFChief]

 

If the Twins were in a window that they knew was only going to be open for the next couple of years I would be all for this move, but personally I don't think that is the case for the Twins. With the way the organization is shaping up, I think the best chance for the Twins to be serious contenders is during the 2020-2022 window when all of these young prospects start coming up to support the young core that is at the majors now.

Not to pick on you or make this personal, but I feel like I could have read this exact post five years ago, speaking about 2016-2018 as "the window." When all that young talent reaches the majors and is dominating.

 

And four years ago about 2017-2019 as "the window."

 

etc etc etc

 

I think the better option is to build your own window, rather than waiting for a window to build itself. Not to mention there's no guarantee you'll have trade opportunites available in 2020, or the assets to acquire such trade opportunities if they do exist.

 

 

[alarp33]

 

 

 

I think the better option is to build your own window, rather than waiting for a window to build itself. Not to mention there's no guarantee you'll have trade opportunites available in 2020, or the assets to acquire such trade opportunities if they do exist.

 

On the surface I don't think there's anything wrong with this statement. But in reality, trading your top assets for a Catcher does not "build a window".  It makes a 72 win team a 76 win team. Way more moves need to be done to "build a window"

[Vanimal46]

Not to pick on you or make this personal, but I feel like I could have read this exact past five years ago, speaking about 2016-2018 as "the window." When all that young talent reaches the majors and is dominating.

 

And four years ago about 2017-2019 as "the window."

 

etc etc etc

 

I think the better option is to build your own window, rather than waiting for a window to build itself. Not to mention there's no guarantee you'll have trade opportunites available in 2020, or the assets to acquire such trade opportunities if they do exist.

That's because you did read those posts in past years.

 

I'm going to fill you in on a dirty little secret. If you keep pushing out the timeline 3 years from now, no one will notice!

 

It's also the beauty of prospect reports. Prospects are more mysterious and intriguing if they're 3 years from their 'ETA'

[alarp33]

This is maybe a topic for a new thread. But people seem very hung up on Realmuto. Why has no one brought up trading for DeGrom or Syndergaard right now? I don't think the returns the Mets would get from either of them will be all that different than the return needed for Realmuto.  

 

Doesn't an Ace to go with Berrios, Romero and Gibson go a longer way to building a real contender next season?

[USAFChief]

 

On the surface I don't think there's anything wrong with this statement. But in reality, trading your top assets for a Catcher does not "build a window".  It makes a 72 win team a 76 win team. Way more moves need to be done to "build a window"

If Buxton and Sano, with the current MLB youngsters and high minors help, are not the answer, there is no window.

 

If they are real, the window is now.

 

The perfect storm of misfortune that is 2018 shouldn't cloud the picture of whether or not the Twins should plan on 2019-2020 as being the time to go for it.

 

It's a no-lose situation. Either you added to a good team needing a catcher, or you added a good, tradeable catcher to a team that wasn't going to contend anyway for the foreseeable future and can be dumped at next year's deadline for a similar haul.

[Vanimal46]

This is maybe a topic for a new thread. But people seem very hung up on Realmuto. Why has no one brought up trading for DeGrom or Syndergaard right now? I don't think the returns the Mets would get from either of them will be all that different than the return needed for Realmuto.

 

Doesn't an Ace to go with Berrios, Romero and Gibson go a longer way to building a real contender next season?

I would love to acquire either one of those pitchers.

[alarp33]

 

If Buxton and Sano are not the answer, there is no window.

 

If they are real, the window is now.

 

 

So you are confident they are real? You want to trade for Realmuto now it seems. While 1 is in A ball and 1 is in AAA, that is a heck of a gamble to make. 

 

BTW - I don't disagree if they both figure it out, there could be a window next season. But there is no way I am taking the gamble of making a monster trade like this now. If that means missing out on Realmuto, oh well. 

 

For what its worth I'd also probably make Lewis untouchable, which may take you out of the running for a Realmuto anyways

Edited July 10, 2018 by alarp33