Article: Deadline Doesn't Make Deals Imminent for Twins

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have been up and down for the majority of 2018. Having started out playing such poor baseball, they’ve been unable to get back to the .500 mark. With any Postseason hope quickly fading, it’s worth wondering what things will look like around the July 31st trade deadline.Right now, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have no incentive to begin to sell. The reality is that the Twins have winnable games upcoming, though they haven’t capitalized on them thus far, and there’s still more than 30 days until decision-making time. Should this crash course continue however, the hometown nine will be sellers, and they’ve got some assets to part with.

 

The front office did a tremendous job of putting quality talent on the 25-man roster this offseason. On top of that, they acquired players while allowing themselves flexibility in terms of nearly all deals being of the one-year variety. Expiring contracts are of value around this time of year, and the Twins have a few that are playing very well. The decision becomes whether to trade them, keep them, or look to resign them.

 

Lance Lynn

 

Having missed all of spring training, things didn’t go well at all for Lynn out of the gate. Since May however, he has allowed just a .687 OPS against and has posted a 3.27 ERA across 10 starts. He’s owed whatever the remainder of his one-year, $12 million deal ends up being, and is a proven veteran for a team eyeing the postseason.

 

Had things have worked out differently for the Twins this season, it would’ve been great for Lynn to be the third or fourth starter in a divisional series that Minnesota was playing in. He should be a guy they can cash in on in July, and a mid-level prospect should be a fair ask.

 

Brian Dozier

 

This season, Dozier has gotten off to his traditionally slow pace, but the problem is that he’s yet to trend upwards. The numbers have sagged mightily, and coming off arguably his best season across the board, it’s been quite the disappointing performance. Going into free agency, I’d have to imagine he’d have hoped for a better showing as well.

 

Before the trend of mediocrity had become a reality for his 2018, I thought the Twins would be better off hanging onto Dozier and offering him a qualifying offer. At this point though, it’d be a near certainty that he’d accept it, and that’s not a great position for Minnesota to be in. Bringing Dozier back was never going to be the right move, but now, dealing him isn’t going to bring much of a return either.

 

Eduardo Escobar

 

A lot of what the Twins decide to do with Escobar is going to be reflective of how they choose to pursue him this offseason. Also set to be a free agent, it’s been my contention that he is the most important player they bring back. Even before he decided to go gangbusters this season, his positional flexibility and value as a very good utility player fits with this club going forward.

 

I don’t know what they trade market will be for a guy like Escobar. He’s somewhat of a late-bloomer, and his performance could be seen as a flash in the pan. The Twins allowing him to leave the organization could make bringing him back even tougher. At the end of the day, he’s made himself a lot of money on his next deal by how good he’s been this season. If Minnesota wants him in 2019 and beyond, I think he needs to stay put.

 

Logan Morrison

 

Like Lynn, Morrison would be a very nice piece for a team trending towards the postseason to add. Unlike Lynn though, Morrison hasn’t shown any signs of being even a sliver of his former self. The power production from 2017 was never expected to repeat itself this season, but the incredible falloff couldn’t have been predicted either.

 

The Twins have a team option on Morrison in 2019, and while they may want to keep him, he’s hardly an irreplaceable player on this current roster. For him to have any shred of trade value, Minnesota would need for him to hit (and well) for the next couple of weeks.

 

Ervin Santana

 

Arguably the toughest candidate to peg in all of this is Ervin Santana. The 2017 ace likely isn’t going to return much before the All Star break. With that timeline, he’d likely have one or two starts prior to needing to be dealt. An opposing team isn’t going to give up much for a pitcher that’s missed all season, and has serious questions about the effectiveness of his best pitch.

 

The Twins probably don’t have room for Santana in 2019, and arguably shouldn’t even this year. Flipping him for nothing doesn’t make much sense, so any move would be completely reliant on how soon he can provide value and to what extent.

 

At the end of the day, the Twins do have some sellable assets. The unfortunate reality is that most of them have significant warts of their own, and the returns are going to be muted at best. While the names play on paper, it’s the lack of production that has Minnesota in the position they currently are.

 

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[Thrylos]

Rodney, Reed, Pressly, Duffey, & Duke should be listed also...

[Mr. Brooks]

 

"The front office did a tremendous job of putting quality talent on the 25-man roster this offseason."

 

Not sure I can agree with this, given their performance on the field.

[KirbyDome89]

1) Are we even sure Ervin is going to pitch major league innings before the deadline? It's been nothing but bad news regarding his recovery.

 

2) The Twins should be paying teams to take Morrison, not the other way around. I kid...kind of...

 

3) If they can keep Escobar around as a super utility guy I'm fine with not moving him

 

4) It's looking like mostly peanuts for the rest of the group that could be moved. Even when selling this team manages to underwhelm. 

[Danchat]

I don't see how Santana is getting traded, even before the August waiver deadline. He can't hit 90 mph right now and he'd be lucky to pitch in September at this point.

[Thrylos]

 

I don't see how Santana is getting traded, even before the August waiver deadline. He can't hit 90 mph right now and he'd be lucky to pitch in September at this point.

 

5 words:

 

Even.Phil.Hughes.Got.Traded

[clone52]

 

Rodney, Reed, Pressly, Duffey, & Duke should be listed also...

 

What is the possible logic in trading Pressly or Duffy?

[clone52]

 

1) Are we even sure Ervin is going to pitch major league innings before the deadline? It's been nothing but bad news regarding his recovery.

 

2) The Twins should be paying teams to take Morrison, not the other way around. I kid...kind of...

 

3) If they can keep Escobar around as a super utility guy I'm fine with not moving him

 

4) It's looking like mostly peanuts for the rest of the group that could be moved. Even when selling this team manages to underwhelm. 

 

1)  Maybe they can swing a deal for a PTBNL or cash.  If Santana sucks, you get cash.  If Santana is decent, you get this player.  If Santana wins the World Series MVP, you get this player.  Not sure if that is allowed in the baseball trade world.

 

2)  Heck, you might even bring Morrison back next year, hoping he rebounds a bit and become a trade asset next year.  $8 million isn't that expensive.  I doubt you keep him and sign Mauer though.

 

3)  Me too.  But if some desparate team offers a Top 50 prospect, you might ship him off.  Would you trade him for the package the Giants got for Nunez last year?

 

4)  If its a player that is not in your 2019 plan, why not trade for peanuts.  And Lance Lynn will get far more than peanuts.

[TheLeviathan]

Here is the goal for selling:

 

Trade your human who plays baseball and you won't have for more than a few months for another human that plays baseball and you might be able to keep longer.

 

That's it, that's the bar to meet for me.  Don't sit on your hands.  Don't trade them for cash.  Get young baseball playing people - any really, I won't be picky - and I'll call the deadline a win.

Edited June 29, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[Danchat]

 

5 words:

 

Even.Phil.Hughes.Got.Traded

Yeah, but it was a salary buyout.They gave up a draft pick for about $8M of Hughes' deal. He was at least in the bullpen and appearing in actual games, which Santana has yet to do. I guess I could see him get flipped for a lottery ticket at the end of August but methinks they're not moving him while he's rehabbing.

[KirbyDome89]

 

1)  Maybe they can swing a deal for a PTBNL or cash.  If Santana sucks, you get cash.  If Santana is decent, you get this player.  If Santana wins the World Series MVP, you get this player.  Not sure if that is allowed in the baseball trade world.

 

2)  Heck, you might even bring Morrison back next year, hoping he rebounds a bit and become a trade asset next year.  $8 million isn't that expensive.  I doubt you keep him and sign Mauer though.

 

3)  Me too.  But if some desparate team offers a Top 50 prospect, you might ship him off.  Would you trade him for the package the Giants got for Nunez last year?

 

4)  If its a player that is not in your 2019 plan, why not trade for peanuts.  And Lance Lynn will get far more than peanuts.

Cash makes me cringe because it's doesn't improve anything other than ownership's bottom line. I don't think MLB has the kind of stipulations or protections on transactions that the NBA does but I could be wrong.

 

I said before the season started that the money allocated to Morrison would've been better spent elsewhere. He hasn't shown anything to make me think handing him any sort of contract is a worthwhile investment. 

 

If the Twins get a decent offer they should take it. He's a FA next year so they're bidding the rest of the league regardless. 

 

I agree, anybody on a short term deal or not part of "the future," is fair game. A lottery ticket is better than nothing, it's just unfortunate that almost everybody who is available has struggled this season. Given the complete lack of interest in signing Lynn this offseason, and his horrible start to the season, I doubt the Twins get much more than a nominal return. Who knows though, maybe somebody gets desperate. 

 

 

[Rosterman]

At some point, can prospects perform as well as any number of players currently on the roster: Dozier, Morrison, Grossman, Wilson, Motte and some not on the roster like Sano and Buxton, not to mention arms like Lynn, Odorizzi, Belisle, Rogers, Duke even Pressly.

 

If the Twins are down 10 games with no chance at even a wild card challenge you have to say "If the guys aren't guaranteed a spot in 2019, then they should be available" and an emphasis should be placed on seeing the players that MIGHT contribute to 2019 and beyond so you can then go into the offseason with a shopping list.

 

You will buy salary relief, you will stock the system, and you will probably be playing to NO walkup sales and lots of empty season ticket seats.

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

"The front office did a tremendous job of putting quality talent on the 25-man roster this offseason."

Not sure I can agree with this, given their performance on the field.

That's not really how it works...The front office can't play the games. They acquired realistic talent and have a very strong offseason. That performances have fallen flat isn't on them.

[Mr. Brooks]

That's not really how it works...The front office can't play the games. They acquired realistic talent and have a very strong offseason. That performances have fallen flat isn't on them.

Every player they acquired came with pretty big question marks, hence why they were available on such team friendly deals.

[Platoon]

Here is the goal for selling:

 

Trade your human who plays baseball and you won't have for more than a few months for another human that plays baseball and you might be able to keep longer.

 

That's it, that's the bar to meet for me.  Don't sit on your hands.  Don't trade them for cash.  Get young baseball playing people - any really, I won't be picky - and I'll call the deadline a win.

Getting a pick for a QO is thence prion, otherwise in a fashion I agree. The Twins have very few players tied down for next year. Leaving them just simply walk always puzzled me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't see how Santana is getting traded, even before the August waiver deadline. He can't hit 90 mph right now and he'd be lucky to pitch in September at this point.

I read that Ervin is restarting his rehab assignment tomorrow (Saturday), so I expect he could still be in play for the August trade period.

[KGB]

 

That's not really how it works...The front office can't play the games. They acquired realistic talent and have a very strong offseason. That performances have fallen flat isn't on them.

The players can't be considered talented, if they don't perform on the field. A strong off season can't be judged by winning the winter meetings, it has to be judged by winning games.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Lots of good things in here. That said, I do think any trades should be made with 2019 in mind. We had some poor performances on offense that I reasonably think will get righted at some point. I don't expect Sano and Buxton to be this bad next year. I think Kepler takes another step forward and a full season of Polanco should be a big upgrade over Adrianza. 

 

• You left off Rodney - he had some bumps earlier in the year, but he's pitching well. I wouldn't expect a huge return here, but he should net a prospect, and he should without question be on the block. Someone will give a C+/B- type guy in the low minors with some upside.
• You also left off Duke - he will net something if he's on the block. I wouldn't be surprised for a similar return to Rodney, but probably a bit lower.
• Lynn - Sad to say, but he may be our best piece. He's righted the ship and has been pretty good for two months now. If that continues into July, I think he could get one pretty decent prospect. At best, the low end of the top 100, but most likely in the top 100-150 type range.
• Dozier - won't net more than a high risk/high reward type guy unless he goes on a hitting binge.... though if he goes on a binge, there's a reasonable chance we aren't selling. We could possibly get a comp pick or something like that for him, and given where we are most likely drafting, I'd have no problems stocking up on comp picks so that we have a big fat pool to play games and get a few better prospects.
• Escobar - this is a hard one. I'd expect a pretty decent return if he's traded, but this guy is a difference maker and needs to be locked up. I'm guessing he's been approached about an extension and said no, which is fine. If the plan is to QO him (and I think he takes this), I'm not trading him unless I get a really good return. I'd push hard for an extension if the QO is coming. If I traded him, I'd let him know that we plan on pursuing him as a starting 2B in 2019 (and probably the 5th infielder so to speak in 2020-2021/2). He's supremely valuable in that super utility role given his offensive capabilities. He's not a world burner defensively, but not horrible anywhere either. I'd have no problems giving him 4 years, which might actually get him back here this offseason. Unlike Dozier, he's not showing signs of aging, and he's incredibly flexible, which is needed in the days of a 3 man bench.
• Reed - I wouldn't trade him. He's locked up for 2019. He's overused this season. I might shut him down and force Molitor to earn trust with others not named Hildenberger.
• LoMo - I thought he was under contract for another year, but with an option, that's probably cut bait material. Problem is no one will want him. At best, I think he nets something minimal in August if he were to heat up suddenly, but without that, I doubt he gets anything.
• Santana - given he hasn't pitched much yet, I think your best hope at value is an August trade. I could also see them just giving him away if he's claimed. I think at best, you get a comp pick for him and probably have to pay the rest of his salary, and I'm very doubtful that happens. I expect him to stay in the org or be given away in August. 

I'll simply note that I'd still be buying on Realmuto as well, even as sellers. He's under control for 2 more years and would set us up with a nice combo with either Castro or Garver as his backup. That will be expensive, and more than likely wipe out any return from the trade above from a future value standpoint, but probably well worth it. 

[wsnydes]

 

5 words:

 

Even.Phil.Hughes.Got.Traded

True, but he was also actually pitching...

 

Throwing a ball towards home plate anyway.

[nicksaviking]

 

5 words:

 

Even.Phil.Hughes.Got.Traded

 

If they dump more salary by giving away draft picks there's going to be riots here.

 

Probably led by me actually.

[nicksaviking]

 

That's not really how it works...The front office can't play the games. They acquired realistic talent and have a very strong offseason. That performances have fallen flat isn't on them.

 

I agree that the front office did way more this off season than anyone's done for this club before. However, Lynn, Reed, Morrison and even the trade of Odorizzi were all considered bargains. They waited things out which is OK, but got these guys only after other teams took a look and passed. Likely due to Lynn's over-reliance on fastballs, Reed's diminishing velocity and Morrison's anomaly of a season in 2017.

 

All were great pick ups considering the contracts and the past results, but it's not like they went out and got any true difference makers, and that was clear even before anyone faltered.

[Monkeypaws]

 

The players can't be considered talented, if they don't perform on the field. A strong off season can't be judged by winning the winter meetings, it has to be judged by winning games.

The Twins made the Wild-card last season. Everybody agreed that their pitching needed a major boost, and the front office delivered. 

 

Hard to say Lynn, Odorizzi, Duke, Reed and Rodney are the root of the Twins problems this season. They've all been performing about where they were expected to.

 

Can't blame them or the front office when the offense does a 180 into the gutter.

[Thrylos]

 

What is the possible logic in trading Pressly or Duffy?

 

They are or soon to be out of options, given a lot of opportunity and they have not proven to be anything special.  Pressly will be 30 years old next season and has only one season with positive WPA out of the pen.  And teams will look at his K/9 and think that he has value

[Tomj14]

 

The Twins made the Wild-card last season. Everybody agreed that their pitching needed a major boost, and the front office delivered. 

 

Hard to say Lynn, Odorizzi, Duke, Reed and Rodney are the root of the Twins problems this season. They've all been performing about where they were expected to.

 

Can't blame them or the front office when the offense does a 180 into the gutter.

I generally agree pitching hasn't been the problem, but there have been too many blown saves.

Duke (2), Presley (4), Reed (4), Rodney (4), Rogers (2).

But I think most of the blame sits on the shoulders of the offense, and the FO not having any decent players to replace injuries or slumps.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I generally agree pitching hasn't been the problem, but there have been too many blown saves.

Duke (2), Presley (4), Reed (4), Rodney (4), Rogers (2).

But I think most of the blame sits on the shoulders of the offense, and the FO not having any decent players to replace injuries or slumps.

 

It doesn't help that our 40 man roster has considerably more pitchers than normal. It's a lost season, getting something of value for some of those pitchers would be beneficial. I'm not quite sure I'd trade Pressley and Rogers as I think they both have a future on this team, but Lynn, Rodney, and Duke should all be aggressively shopped if the team waives the white flag. All are on one year deals, and all should net something of value given their performance.

[bighat]

Nobody wants Morrison, period. Dozier's and Santana's values are at an all time low. Terrible timing for a struggling team. Rosario's staying put. Lynn and Escobar are the only players that might get a decent return. Rodney/Reed might get you flyers on low-level minor leaguers. That's really it.

 

Rough year. Can't even be sellers effectively because nobody wants what the Twins have.

[Doomtints]

This will be a sad trade deadline and offseason. We had such high hopes for this year, and next year will have a different set of faces.

[Doomtints]

 

Nobody wants Morrison, period. Dozier's and Santana's values are at an all time low. Terrible timing for a struggling team. Rosario's staying put. Lynn and Escobar are the only players that might get a decent return. Rodney/Reed might get you flyers on low-level minor leaguers. That's really it.

 

Rough year. Can't even be sellers effectively because nobody wants what the Twins have.

 

I disagree. It has happened many times where someone with a history like Dozier struggles in the first half, gets traded, and good things happen. The Twins will get a return for Dozier and some of the others.

Edited June 29, 2018 by Doomtints

[KGB]

 

The Twins made the Wild-card last season. Everybody agreed that their pitching needed a major boost, and the front office delivered. 

 

Hard to say Lynn, Odorizzi, Duke, Reed and Rodney are the root of the Twins problems this season. They've all been performing about where they were expected to.

 

Can't blame them or the front office when the offense does a 180 into the gutter.

I'm not blaming the FO, it's only fair that they be given more time to build the system they want.  But you can't say they had a great offseason when the team go's backward's.  Seems like people want to give them credit when something positive happens and blame someone else when something negative happens.

 

Either they are in charge and accountable for the results or there not and we should have just kept Terry Ryan.

 

 

[adorduan]

 

I disagree. It has happened many times where someone with a history like Dozier struggles in the first half, gets traded, and good things happen. The Twins will get a return for Dozier and some of the others.

Yeah, a bag of baseballs is a return, I guess......