Jorge Polanco Update

[h2oface]

 

Who's playing 3rd?

 

I don't know. Who's on first.    

[ashbury]

 

I understand there is half a season to go.  However, it has become quite apparent this team should not be confused with a contender. This team would be 18 games back in any other division of the American League. The two guys (Buxton/Sano that were supposed to be the core going forward look horrible. Therefore, I am not focused on what to do to make the 2018 the best possible team.  To get even close to the best teams … Sano and Buxton would have to improve massively.  Dozier would have to return to 2016 form and the bullpen would need a couple upgrades.  Probably need an upgrade at Catcher too.  That would still leave us short in terms of comparing to the best teams because they have better SP.

 

Do we want to apply Band-Aids and hope the Indians play significantly below their ability or do we want to do what’s necessary to close the gap in talent between our team and the top teams in the league. I am hopeful Dozier gets hot for the next month and brings back a “Gregorius” for us. We have quite a few guys that could go I just don’t see any of them bringing back much except Escobar. The players we get may not even be part of the future but traded for required pieces. To miss the opportunity to add assets would be a mistake.

Thought-filled take. One gets quite the ROI on a simple opinion about Polanco's arm, post-suspension.

[Thrylos]

 

Escobar is the 3B next year if re-signed or part of a 3B/1B/DH group with Mauer and Sano. He doesn't belong at SS, he just isn't good enough  to play there every day, although he could be the 2B if Dozier walks and Morrison is retained.  Hard to see retaining Morrison at this point though. 

 

No Mauer next year.  Escobar at second, Polanco at short, Sano at third.  First basemen are easy to find..

[yarnivek1972]

I think the Sano at 3b ship has sailed. If he starts another dozen games there at the mlb level, I’ll be shocked.

[Squirrel]

Who's playing 3rd?

Machado!

[Major League Ready]

 

I think they have ample payroll room to invest in both this offseason.

 

Are you saying the team’s financial resources will be so vast as of next year that it does not matter if the team would be better off investing the excess in other assets? The one financial reality any fan of a mid-market team should learn to embrace is that our team needs to produce wins per dollar spent at a ratio of 50-70% of the other teams. We must invest better than the top teams if we are to assemble a team with equal talent.

 

The available payroll is an asset for sure. Just remember the source of those funds and what it means to the team. This team is still in a position where contention requires a significant addition of talent. The sources are primarily Mauer, Dozier, Santana and Lynn. Those players have been important to the Twins and replacing their contribution through free agency would absorb the available funds. The relative ability to invest in free agency or player retention is a product of how well the team can insert low cost players in place of players that are substantially increasing in cost.

[alarp33]

 

No Mauer next year.  Escobar at second, Polanco at short, Sano at third.  First basemen are easy to find..

 

SS are hard to find. So you're giving up on one of them (Gordon) in order to play Sano out of position, because 1B are easy to find? I'm not sure that makes sense. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Are you saying the team’s financial resources will be so vast as of next year that it does not matter if the team would be better off investing the excess in other assets?

No. I am saying we probably can't let both Dozier and Escobar leave without signing a replacement. The rose color must be very strong on those glasses if you think Polanco, Gordon, and Sano will be everyday MLB infielders by opening day 2019.

 

Fortunately, assuming a similar payroll to 2018, I don't see other needs that will preclude that modest level of investment.

[Mr. Brooks]

SS are hard to find. So you're giving up on one of them (Gordon) in order to play Sano out of position, because 1B are easy to find? I'm not sure that makes sense.

Sano is a third baseman. How is he playing out of position?

[Puckett34]

 

I don't know. Who's on first.    

Between What on 2nd and I don't care at SS, pretty good infield.

[alarp33]

 

Sano is a third baseman. How is he playing out of position?

 

We're watching different games if you think that is his optimal position*

 

*And that's talking about today. Not what his 3rd base ability (or lack thereof) is going to be in the future

[Major League Ready]

 

No. I am saying we probably can't let both Dozier and Escobar leave without signing a replacement. The rose color must be very strong on those glasses if you think Polanco, Gordon, and Sano will be everyday MLB infielders by opening day 2019.

Fortunately, assuming a similar payroll to 2018, I don't see other needs that will preclude that modest level of investment.

I think they need to add an impact bat if their lineup is going to come close to rivaling any of the other top teams. Obviously, there is still hope Buxton and Sano both pan out but I don't like the odds.  Even with them "panning out" we still need another impact layer to be on the same plane as the other teams. I understand Machado is a long-shot but I would make a strong run at him and make other infield decisions after that effort. That would take at least half of the $60M available.

 

We also could stand to invest significantly in the bullpen. A catcher won't help and I am not sure we have a replacement for Mauer. I would say that we could easily spend the remainder of the $60M on those assets.

 

Assuming we are able to address the position needs and bullpen, it is quite questionable we will be able to build a contending starting rotation without add a FA.  Berrios / Gibson / Odorizzi and Romero is probably going to be fine. That's a little thin for 2019 because it's tough to count on Gonsalves Pineda or May. We also lose Gibson and Odorizzi after 2019 so we have to think beyond next year when making these decisions that impact the teams for several years. Of course, we have already spent the $60M before determining if there will be a need for helping the starting rotation through FA.

 

They may not spend every dollar next year but they will very likely need every dollar of payroll being shed if they hope to build a real contender.

[Mr. Brooks]

We're watching different games if you think that is his optimal position*

 

*And that's talking about today. Not what his 3rd base ability (or lack thereof) is going to be in the future

It's the position he plays.

Maybe he's a poor defender who would benefit from a move, but the team considers him a third baseman, and that's where he was developed in the minors.

[alarp33]

 

It's the position he plays.
Maybe he's a poor defender who would benefit from a move, but the team considers him a third baseman, and that's where he was developed in the minors.

 

How is he playing out of position?

 

Maybe he's a poor defender who would benefit from a move

 

You answered your own question from your previous post

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think they need to add an impact bat if their lineup is going to come close to rivaling any of the other top teams. Obviously, there is still hope Buxton and Sano both pan out but I don't like the odds. Even with them "panning out" we still need another impact layer to be on the same plane as the other teams. I understand Machado is a long-shot but I would make a strong run at him and make other infield decisions after that effort. That would take at least half of the $60M available.

Even if you find enough money for him, Machado is not going to sign with a team that is hemming and hawing about additional investments on the level of Escobar, Reed, and Castro.

[ashbury]

Even if you find enough money for him, Machado is not going to sign with a team that is hemming and hawing about additional investments on the level of Escobar, Reed, and Castro.

Yeah, I bet no superstar likes to hear, "we can't sign someone else now, we gave you the world already," or even implicitly have it held over his head during the life of his contract.

[Squirrel]

 

Even if you find enough money for him, Machado is not going to sign with a team that is hemming and hawing about additional investments on the level of Escobar, Reed, and Castro.

What? You mean offering him the most money isn't enough? But we've heard that that's all it takes? Now I'm confused. You mean he wouldn't want to come here for other reasons, even if we did offer him the most money?

[USAFChief]

 

Yeah, I bet no superstar likes to hear, "we can't sign someone else now, we gave you the world already," or even implicitly have it held over his head during the life of his contract.

I bet the Bryce Harper deal the Twins inked the day before (they gave him Duluth) will convince him otherwise.

[Major League Ready]

 

Even if you find enough money for him, Machado is not going to sign with a team that is hemming and hawing about additional investments on the level of Escobar, Reed, and Castro.

The post in question was a heck of a lot more substantive than the likelihood of this particular FA joining the MN Twins.  You said “Fortunately, assuming a similar payroll to 2018, I don't see other needs that will preclude that modest level of investment”.  I pointed out the specifics of the gap in talent between the Twins and the best team in the AL. There is an entire narrative about the width of that gap yet you chose to address solving that problem with a quip. When presented the mountain before us your response is quibbling about the Twins desire to spend wisely.

 

Do you really think we don’t have needs that require more than a modest investment? We are 18 GB of NY and Boston and it’s still June. I think we are a very long way from contention. I like Escobar but he has had ½ of a season (2018) where he has played to the level of the multiple difference makers on each of the best teams. I don’t want to count on that level of performance. Keep in mind Polanco player like an all-star for half a season too. It’s going to taker a lot more than retaining Escobar to field a contender?

 

It’s really easy to make a move that in isolation makes the team better, especially when not looking beyond next year. It’s a whole lot harder to fit all the pieces together to field a contender, especially when our team is at a significant financial disadvantage.

I pointed out a number of needs that could easily consume $60M in payroll. Tell us how you are going to actually put a contender on the field and not use every dollar of the $60M coming off the books.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I didn't say spend less than what's available. I think they can spend it all and include an infielder like Escobar, that's all. That won't make our roster equal to NYY or BOS, but neither will reallocating $10 million from Escobar.

[Vanimal46]

I'm steering away from the original topic of this thread. The Twins should be desperate for a star. I don't care if it takes $45+ million. Do whatever it takes to get a star like Machado on board.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm steering away from the original topic of this thread. The Twins should be desperate for a star. I don't care if it takes $45+ million. Do whatever it takes to get a star like Machado on board.

 

I'm guessing 30-35MM is the max they can put in 1 guy.....and it will take about that to get Machado. 

 

That does raise some concerns/issues, depending on how many pre-arb guys and cheap FAs they have on the roster.

 

It does no good to sign Machado and do nothing else. And they won't be able to do much else if they go to $45MM on one guy.

 

I'm not sure if 30MM is sustainable for 1 guy, I'd have to look long and hard at the roster to see if it is.

 

If it isn't, I'm not sure how they catch up to the big players.....well, the only way they can is if Buxton and Sano return to being superstars, because there is no one else (hitter wise) coming from the minors any time soon that is elite, most likely.

 

edit: Or, if they trade for guys like Realmuto, but they probably don't have the minor league ammo to do that more than 1-2 times, and still have much on the farm as far as elite prospects goes, to fill in the less expensive part of the roster.

[ChrisKnutson]

Obviously Machado isn’t an option, but how about Gio Urshela? Toronto just dfa’d him, and I think he’d definitely be an upgrade over Motter just based on his defense and the possibility that he starts hitting.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Obviously Machado isn’t an option, but how about Gio Urshela? Toronto just dfa’d him, and I think he’d definitely be an upgrade over Motter just based on his defense and the possibility that he starts hitting.

 

to what end? He's got zero WAR, and only plays 1 position. Last year he put up negative WAR. 

 

I have no idea why they'd want this guy.

[ChrisKnutson]

He definitely can pick it at 3rd, SS too I guess, but by just watching him play you can see that he’s just a change in stance, approach, or mechanics away from being a valuable player. I like WAR, but it shouldn’t be the only way to evaluate talent/skill/potential. Besides, I have no faith in Sano, let alone this org, sooo we might as well try something/someone new.

[Riverbrian]

 

I bet the Bryce Harper deal the Twins inked the day before (they gave him Duluth) will convince him otherwise.

 

The Duluth deal is tenuous at best. Bryce saw all the potholes in Duluth and the agent is working on dissolution of the agreement. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Duluth deal is tenuous at best. Bryce saw all the potholes in Duluth and the agent is working on dissolution of the agreement.

 

Harper's side is saying no deal, unless we throw in the north shore property up to Two Harbors.

[amjgt]

I didn't say spend less than what's available. I think they can spend it all and include an infielder like Escobar, that's all. That won't make our roster equal to NYY or BOS, but neither will reallocating $10 million from Escobar.

Feels like 3/45 is the starting point now, which could change if he goes in the tank but probably goes up by a year or $2-3M AAV if he keeps up anything close to current production.

 

Zobrist had more of a track record but seems like a decent comp. Only Zobrist’s first full year did he have a OPS in the range of Esco. And he signed 4/56 with the Cubs when he was 3 years older than Escobar is now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Zobrist had more of a track record but seems like a decent comp. Only Zobrist’s first full year did he have a OPS in the range of Esco. And he signed 4/56 with the Cubs when he was 3 years older than Escobar is now.

Not even close. Zobrist had 38 career WAR when he hit free agency, Escobar has 6.5 right now. Even just hitting and baserunning, Zobrist averaged 21 runs (~2.1 wins) per year over the previous 7 seasons; this is Escobar's first season over 2 runs (~0.2 wins). Career OPS+ was 117 for Zobrist, and 96 for Escobar.

 

Track record matters -- look at the deal Morrison got coming off his 2017 season. Escobar can do better than that by virtue of his position, but he's not getting a Zobrist deal.

[Thrylos]

 

SS are hard to find. So you're giving up on one of them (Gordon) in order to play Sano out of position, because 1B are easy to find? I'm not sure that makes sense. 

 

Gordon is not a shortstop.  Sano is a third baseman