Jorge Polanco Update

[DocBauer]

As I have often stated...for anyone actually paying attention to anything I say and is taking notes...that I am a fan and big believer in Polanco. For whatever reason, he captured my attention from the day he was signed. He was a fine athlete who could hit, showed some speed and pop, and the organization was in desperate need for middle infielders that had any kind of real potential. He often hit at the top of the lineup, but as his bat came around, he often slid to the 3 hole as his team's best overall hitter. (Something Molitor had him do last season the last couple of months as well).

 

Some have argued his OPS while in milb was nothing to get excited about. Agreed. But then again, OPS for a talented young player, athletic and a middle infielder, may not always be an accurate measuring stick for his potential either. Is Polanco really the hitter we saw for most of the second half of last season. Probably not. But he's also not the hitter we saw for a couple of months before his breakout either. And, IMO, he bas grown in to a solid defensive SS. Not great, but solid, and with the potential to still be better.

 

The dates and games thrown out here are confusing. But barring a real injury setback, he's going to be back in a few weeks. As much as I like him, I think we should temper expectations that he will be a spark that ignites the team. Are we better and deeper with him starting and Adrianza back on the bench as a role player? Yes. And BTW, Adrianza was solid in 2017 and had his best season to date. And except for a couple bad plays, he's much better in the field and at the plate the past few weeks. But Polanco is absolutely the more talented player, still filled with potential. And I can't wait to have him back! Let's just freak out if he shows some rust and isn't the offensive machine he was to close out 2017.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't know, seems like a bunch of guesses to me. If the Twins say he'll be in the lineup July 2 I haven't seen any reason to doubt that yet - I'd probably begin doubting it if he hasn't played in a game by next Monday.

 

FWIW, the MLB wRC+ and Ops were higher in April than they are in June so far, even though weather is a factor in April. "rust" seems pretty subjective and unmeaningful

Nine days away from his suspension ending, and he still hasn't started a rehab assignment.

Any doubts yet?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Nine days away from his suspension ending, and he still hasn't started a rehab assignment.

Any doubts yet?

I guess it starts tomorrow (Sunday):

 

http://m.startribune.com/odorizzi-might-have-the-matchup-he-needs-to-get-going/486355651/

 

Jorge Polanco, whose PED suspension will end July 2, will be the designated hitter on Sunday for the Class A Fort Myers Miracle, face Ervin Santana during a live batting practice session on Monday then play shortstop for the Miracle on Tuesday. His right index finger injury (he injured it in car door, then dealt with an infection) has healed sufficiently to where he can resume activities.

[beckmt]

 

As I have often stated...for anyone actually paying attention to anything I say and is taking notes...that I am a fan and big believer in Polanco. For whatever reason, he captured my attention from the day he was signed. He was a fine athlete who could hit, showed some speed and pop, and the organization was in desperate need for middle infielders that had any kind of real potential. He often hit at the top of the lineup, but as his bat came around, he often slid to the 3 hole as his team's best overall hitter. (Something Molitor had him do last season the last couple of months as well).

Some have argued his OPS while in milb was nothing to get excited about. Agreed. But then again, OPS for a talented young player, athletic and a middle infielder, may not always be an accurate measuring stick for his potential either. Is Polanco really the hitter we saw for most of the second half of last season. Probably not. But he's also not the hitter we saw for a couple of months before his breakout either. And, IMO, he bas grown in to a solid defensive SS. Not great, but solid, and with the potential to still be better.

The dates and games thrown out here are confusing. But barring a real injury setback, he's going to be back in a few weeks. As much as I like him, I think we should temper expectations that he will be a spark that ignites the team. Are we better and deeper with him starting and Adrianza back on the bench as a role player? Yes. And BTW, Adrianza was solid in 2017 and had his best season to date. And except for a couple bad plays, he's much better in the field and at the plate the past few weeks. But Polanco is absolutely the more talented player, still filled with potential. And I can't wait to have him back! Let's just freak out if he shows some rust and isn't the offensive machine he was to close out 2017.

Do we have any knowledge of how long he was on PED's before he was caught.  The masking agents get better, changes are made to the tests, MLB catches some cheaters, masking agents are again much improved to hide the cheaters.  Do not know if this is the case, but from what I have seen it is a reasonable assumption, this can happen.  

[yarnivek1972]

Do we have any knowledge of how long he was on PED's before he was caught. The masking agents get better, changes are made to the tests, MLB catches some cheaters, masking agents are again much improved to hide the cheaters. Do not know if this is the case, but from what I have seen it is a reasonable assumption, this can happen.

Polanco isn’t some hulking homerun hitter. He has a contact, line drive approach to pitchers. Sure PED’s would help his stamina, but given that he will only play 70-75 games at the MLB level this year, that really shouldn’t be an issue. Could be by the time June or July rolls around next year, but who knows what the roster will look like. There might be sufficient depth to provide enough off days for Polanco and others who need a break.

[beckmt]

 

Polanco isn’t some hulking homerun hitter. He has a contact, line drive approach to pitchers. Sure PED’s would help his stamina, but given that he will only play 70-75 games at the MLB level this year, that really shouldn’t be an issue. Could be by the time June or July rolls around next year, but who knows what the roster will look like. There might be sufficient depth to provide enough off days for Polanco and others who need a break.

I am talking his hot streak at the end of last year.  Not going forward.

[yarnivek1972]

I am talking his hot streak at the end of last year. Not going forward.

I understand that. What I am saying is that other than helping with his stamina down the stretch last year (if he was on them at the time), it shouldn’t have provided that much of an edge. He’s got a .740 career ops. That sounds about in line with my hopes. What I have always liked about him is the 1 K per 7 or so PA.

[ewen21]

 

When Polanco comes back to replace Adrianza have Gordon come along and replace Dozier.

That would be nice if Gordon was hitting.  He has been horrible in Rochester

[yarnivek1972]

That would be nice if Gordon was hitting. He has been horrible in Rochester

Until tonight. The ultimate example of SSS.

[Mr. Brooks]

I understand that. What I am saying is that other than helping with his stamina down the stretch last year (if he was on them at the time), it shouldn’t have provided that much of an edge. He’s got a .740 career ops. That sounds about in line with my hopes. What I have always liked about him is the 1 K per 7 or so PA.

He thought it would help his performance enough to risk getting busted taking it.

I don't accept that someone takes that risk just to have a bit more stamina. Especially at his age.

[ewen21]

 

Until tonight. The ultimate example of SSS.

Yeah.  Whatever that is.

[jorgenswest]

Last year at he beginning of June Polanco was playing poorly. He went on family leave to the Dominican. The leave was real but I wonder if someone got to him there and convinced him that steroids would help turn his poor season around. He returned struggled for a while longer and then found power he hadn’t ever shown previously.

 

Something turned his season around last year. I hope it was a coach changing his approach.

[ashbury]

I understand that. What I am saying is that other than helping with his stamina down the stretch last year (if he was on them at the time), it shouldn’t have provided that much of an edge. He’s got a .740 career ops. That sounds about in line with my hopes. What I have always liked about him is the 1 K per 7 or so PA.

I've tried to avoid baseless speculation in the wake of the news of his suspension. But if his pre-suspension performance was enhanced, I'd be foremost concerned about his arm strength. It was below par for a SS when he came up. He improved it to adequate. The problem has been bounced throws when accurate, or scattershot throws when thrown hard enough. If he lost even one mph, that might be enough to be trouble again. Again, it's baseless, just something I'm watching for when I get a first look.

 

If he doesn't have a shortstop's arm, he has no role on this roster. And he has no minor league options remaining.

 

I hope to be proved to have worried about nothing.

[Squirrel]

I've tried to avoid baseless speculation in the wake of the news of his suspension

But if his pre-suspension performance was enhanced, I'd be foremost concerned about his arm strength. It was below par for a SS when he came up. He improved it to adequate. The problem has been bounced throws when accurate, or scattershot throws when thrown hard enough. If he lost even one mph, that might be enough to be trouble again. Again, it's baseless, just something I'm watching for when I get a first look.

If he doesn't have a shortstop's arm, he has no role on this roster. And he has no minor league options remaining.

I hope to be proved to have worried about nothing.

THIS is what to worry about, not if he is back on the team by a certain date or not.

[Thrylos]

FWIW, Polanco started playing in MiLB games tonight at the Miracle.

[Mike Sixel]

That would be nice if Gordon was hitting. He has been horrible in Rochester

Horrible? Not even close to horrible.

[wsnydes]

THIS is what to worry about, not if he is back on the team by a certain date or not.

I know that's what I've been worried most about as well. Less concerned with the bat and even less worried about when he comes back.

 

I'm with RB in that I think the FO pulled the plug on this season already.

[Mr. Brooks]

Horrible? Not even close to horrible.

I don't know what the accurate adjective is for his AAA performance, but it hasn't been good.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know what the accurate adjective is for his AAA performance, but it hasn't been good.

Big delta between good and horrible!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Gordon has a 81 wRC+ at AAA so far. That's the same as Grossman's mark in MLB so far this season, and right around the nexus of other disappointing 2018 bats (Sano, Morrison, Garver).

 

Maybe you reserve "horrible" for something like Castro/Wilson/Buxton level (39 wRC+ or lower), but Gordon's performance is still bad/poor.

[Major League Ready]

 

I've tried to avoid baseless speculation in the wake of the news of his suspension. But if his pre-suspension performance was enhanced, I'd be foremost concerned about his arm strength. It was below par for a SS when he came up. He improved it to adequate. The problem has been bounced throws when accurate, or scattershot throws when thrown hard enough. If he lost even one mph, that might be enough to be trouble again. Again, it's baseless, just something I'm watching for when I get a first look.

If he doesn't have a shortstop's arm, he has no role on this roster. And he has no minor league options remaining.

I hope to be proved to have worried about nothing.

 

Would he not be the logical replacement for Dozier next year and Gordon plays SS?  Plus, Dozier will be traded in a month if he improves enough to garner any interest.  

[jorgenswest]

Gordon doesn’t have enough AAA plate appearances in support of an argument about whether he is ready or not. The Twins staff seeing him everyday can make that assessment. It would be fair to describe his performance thus far but not fair to use it in a predictive manner. We have no idea from fangraphs whether he is swinging out of the zone, missing opportunities to attack a pitch, barreling up a good number of balls or having difficulty with certain types of pitches.

 

As he gets to 150 plate appearances we might be able to start looking at strike out rate, walk rate and ISO.

[Thrylos]

 

Would he not be the logical replacement for Dozier next year and Gordon plays SS?  Plus, Dozier will be traded in a month if he improves enough to garner any interest.  

 

Not if they extend/re-sign Escobar, as they should...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Gordon doesn’t have enough AAA plate appearances in support of an argument about whether he is ready or not. The Twins staff seeing him everyday can make that assessment. It would be fair to describe his performance thus far but not fair to use it in a predictive manner. We have no idea from fangraphs whether he is swinging out of the zone, missing opportunities to attack a pitch, barreling up a good number of balls or having difficulty with certain types of pitches.

As he gets to 150 plate appearances we might be able to start looking at strike out rate, walk rate and ISO.

 

While this is generally true, it's not a binary judgement, but rather there are different confidence levels. Maybe at 150 PA you can have 90% confidence in judgements based on those peripherals, but you can still have, say, 75% confidence in a judgement at Gordon's current level of 126 PA. And given Gordon's history and underwhelming peripherals across the board, maybe that could be even higher.

 

And for that matter, we can be judging different levels of readiness too, each with its own confidence level -- readiness to perform (I think we can safely say Gordon is unlikely to fit that right now), readiness to be challenged, readiness just to get more experience. Gordon is close enough on that latter point that we should see him in September, or perhaps earlier if an opportunity arises sometime after Polanco's return.

 

[ashbury]

Would he not be the logical replacement for Dozier next year and Gordon plays SS?  Plus, Dozier will be traded in a month if he improves enough to garner any interest.  

I could have been been more clear when I said 'this roster' that I was referring to the roster on this date in 2018. We still have more than half a season to go, and no way to stash him at AAA, if Dozier remains entrenched at 2B - that's a long time to ride out a dead spot on the roster if it were to play out like that (and of course I hope it doesn't).

 

If Dozier is traded mid-season, then it's very much not the same roster anymore, and that was kind of my implication. However, it is not a certainty that Dozier will be departing soon. Some other team has to offer more for him than we get from next year's draft pick assuming we extend a qualifying offer. There is also the diminishing but nonzero chance we give him a contract extension.

[Major League Ready]

 

Not if they extend/re-sign Escobar, as they should...

 

I Love Escobar as much as the next guy but would they be better off with Escobar at 2B assuming a cost of  roughly $10M/yr or Polanco at 2B and the $10M invested in a back of the bullpen arm or Catcher?  I think Escobar at 3B and Sano at 1B/DH makes sense too. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I Love Escobar as much as the next guy but would they be better off with Escobar at 2B assuming a cost of  roughly $10M/yr or Polanco at 2B and the $10M invested in a back of the bullpen arm or Catcher?  I think Escobar at 3B and Sano at 1B/DH makes sense too. 

I think they have ample payroll room to invest in both this offseason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Update on Polanco from Saturday:

 

https://www.twincities.com/2018/06/23/ervin-santanas-rough-journey-continues-to-drag-on-following-surgery/

 

 

 

The Twins have had internal discussions about requesting a change in the return date for shortstop Jorge Polanco, whose 80-game steroid suspension expires July 2.

That likely would require approval from the league office as well as the players’ union, Molitor suggested, so the Twins might have to settle for a 10-day stint on the disabled list as Polanco shakes off an infection in the index finger of his throwing hand.
 

For now, Polanco is due to serve as the designated hitter Sunday for the Class A Fort Myers Miracle, followed by another round of live BP against Santana on Monday. If that goes well, Polanco could see his first start at shortstop on Tuesday for the Miracle.

 

[Major League Ready]

 

I could have been been more clear when I said 'this roster' that I was referring to the roster on this date in 2018. We still have more than half a season to go, and no way to stash him at AAA, if Dozier remains entrenched at 2B - that's a long time to ride out a dead spot on the roster if it were to play out like that (and of course I hope it doesn't).

 

If Dozier is traded mid-season, then it's very much not the same roster anymore, and that was kind of my implication. However, it is not a certainty that Dozier will be departing soon. Some other team has to offer more for him than we get from next year's draft pick assuming we extend a qualifying offer. There is also the diminishing but nonzero chance we give him a contract extension.

 

I understand there is half a season to go.  However, it has become quite apparent this team should not be confused with a contender. This team would be 18 games back in any other division of the American League. The two guys (Buxton/Sano that were supposed to be the core going forward look horrible. Therefore, I am not focused on what to do to make the 2018 the best possible team.  To get even close to the best teams … Sano and Buxton would have to improve massively.  Dozier would have to return to 2016 form and the bullpen would need a couple upgrades.  Probably need an upgrade at Catcher too.  That would still leave us short in terms of comparing to the best teams because they have better SP.

 

Do we want to apply Band-Aids and hope the Indians play significantly below their ability or do we want to do what’s necessary to close the gap in talent between our team and the top teams in the league. I am hopeful Dozier gets hot for the next month and brings back a “Gregorius” for us. We have quite a few guys that could go I just don’t see any of them bringing back much except Escobar. The players we get may not even be part of the future but traded for required pieces. To miss the opportunity to add assets would be a mistake.

[alarp33]

 

Not if they extend/re-sign Escobar, as they should...

 

Who's playing 3rd?