Article: Three Potential Catcher Upgrades on the Trade Market

[Kelly Vance]

 

 

Realmuto is over valued, I think, just like I think Sano is. None of the pieces ready (like Gordon) should go until it is decided what to do with Dozier and Escobar for next year. 

Yeah, a weak hitting catcher won't get you through the year but a massive hole up the middle is worse.

Edited June 7, 2018 by Kelly Vance

[Kelly Vance]

 

Yeah, a Gordon-led package feels like something the Marlins might accept at the deadline, but probably not in early June. Leading with Lewis could seal it earlier...

Twins will not trade Lewis....especially for a catcher. 

[Kelly Vance]

 

Do canon arms matter in an era where no one steals? I hope not. Hit and frame.

Well, its the only thing about Wilson that I see as a plus. Has to be the reason. It sure isn't his hitting.  Although it could be Molly sending a message to Garver.... :Catch the damn ball"

[alarp33]

 

Im just saying he has a cannon.    And notice I said reason, singular. Can't be his hitting, his framing, or his athletic ability. And I agree Garver is better. But he can't catch every day. 

 

But does he have a cannon? I haven't seen any evidence of that

[Kelly Vance]

 

But does he have a cannon? I haven't seen any evidence of that

I saw it in person during the Mariners series.  Speed of the game.... Stuff you can't appreciate unless watching live. 

[alarp33]

 

I saw it in person during the Mariners series.  Speed of the game.... Stuff you can't appreciate unless watching live. 

 

He's thrown out 1 base runner this year. 

[Major League Ready]

 

I could care less how much a player costs is dollars. It is not my money. It is nobody's money that seems to want to control payroll here at TD. Just because Realmuto has been good, doesn't mean he will continue..... look at Logan Morrison, and look at how fast the demise was for Mauer. Lucroy was so so valuable, and then in one season, he was on the cheap, and went from one of the best framers, to one of the worst.

 

Realmuto is over valued, I think, just like I think Sano is. None of the pieces ready (like Gordon) should go until it is decided what to do with Dozier and Escobar for next year. Plus, banking on Polanco is a mistake, just like banking on Santana and May. It sucks to have injuries, but Castro was a 2019 lame duck (thankfully) before the injury, and now will be a high priced back up. MOY using Wilson for the main catcher is a joke, though. I am afraid the catcher problem will have to be addressed in the off season, even if Ramos is acquired for the rest of the year. 

 

Most fans of teams that play in a league with a cap come to understand the correlation to spending wisely and winning. Some baseball fans somehow can’t grasp that there is a practical limitation to what the team can spend. The “I don’t care because it’s not my money” position is a simplistic line of thought. Given the revenue advantage of the top teams, we should all be hoping for very wise spending on the part of the FO.

 

This entire discussion is premature.  This team might be in contention for the central division but we are far from contenders. NY, Boston and Houston are on a completely different level. Upgrading at Catcher won't change that much. The only way it makes sense for this team to be buyers is If the entire team improves dramatically by the deadline.  If not, why spend a premium for mid-season additions? We have a lot of payroll dollars freeing up this off-season. Address the problem with those dollars instead of prospects, especially the kind of prospects it would take to get an elite Catcher.

Edited June 7, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[ashbury]

I'm not in favor of ever again spending a high first-round draft pick on a stud catcher. I've laid out my reasons before, and won't belabor them now.

 

The same logic somewhat guides my feelings about trading for a top-end talent like Realmuto. I would not include Royce Lewis in a deal to get him, even taking into account the uncertainty of a prospect versus an established veteran. It would be too much like drafting Realmuto 1-1.

 

Allowing 20/20 hindsight adds a guy like Berrios to that rank - not drafted as high, but if GMs were given a do-over in the 2012 draft JO would have gone much much higher, I would imagine.

 

OTOH, I doubt there is very much disagreement that a do-over would have us pick someone else than Nick Gordon. His lofty draft status wouldn't prevent me from considering including him in a package to get Realmuto.

 

So I don't mean literally that I would not trade first rounders. It's basically just my way of justifying to myself not to trade Lewis or someone at his level for a catcher, no matter how good. Stud catchers are generally the domain for very rich teams, or teams for which all other holes have been filled. I'd love to get Realmuto, I'm just not willing to pay the price that he probably has attached to him.

 

I'd be fine with a far lower price in prospects for one of the other catching upgrades mentioned in this thread, as part-year rentals, if we continue to hang around the periphery of the AL Central lead. We lack anything resembling a complete player at that position.

[Monkeypaws]

This is kind of the inverse of what saw the Twins send Ramos to Washington for Capps.

 

Panic, no good. Garver is still finding his way at the MLB level, 57 games. I'd rather give him a chance to grow into the job than make a short-sighted trade.

 

Catcher isn't holding the Twins back at this point.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The Twins are one injury away from really bad options at catcher. Now is the time to strike a deal. My gut tells me to go the third option for the longer hall but that price is high.

they were one injury away in March

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This is kind of the inverse of what saw the Twins send Ramos to Washington for Capps.

 

Panic, no good. Garver is still finding his way at the MLB level, 57 games. I'd rather give him a chance to grow into the job than make a short-sighted trade.

 

Catcher isn't holding the Twins back at this point.

there are a number of holes in the lineup. Polanco is coming back, Gordon could be called up, Escobar has been great! Dozier has been very streaky in the past. There are realistic ways the team can improve 2B/SS with in house options.

 

A RH Power hitting RF would be a good way to improve the hole at CF, maybe Cave can provide a spark...

 

 

And then there’s Catcher... you just don’t see good hitting and fielding catchers available. That’s what made the Ramos/Capps trade so astoundingly stupid. You can never have too much quality catching.... and the entire org is void of legit catching prospects above low A. If Castro comes back in ‘19 it won’t be full time. Time is right for a big move at catcher. It might not be the biggest pain point in the lineup, but a good hitting catcher lengthens the lineup.

Edited June 10, 2018 by Sconnie

[Riverbrian]

 

I'm not in favor of ever again spending a high first-round draft pick on a stud catcher. I've laid out my reasons before, and won't belabor them now.

 

The same logic somewhat guides my feelings about trading for a top-end talent like Realmuto. I would not include Royce Lewis in a deal to get him, even taking into account the uncertainty of a prospect versus an established veteran. It would be too much like drafting Realmuto 1-1.

 

Allowing 20/20 hindsight adds a guy like Berrios to that rank - not drafted as high, but if GMs were given a do-over in the 2012 draft JO would have gone much much higher, I would imagine.

 

OTOH, I doubt there is very much disagreement that a do-over would have us pick someone else than Nick Gordon. His lofty draft status wouldn't prevent me from considering including him in a package to get Realmuto.

 

So I don't mean literally that I would not trade first rounders. It's basically just my way of justifying to myself not to trade Lewis or someone at his level for a catcher, no matter how good. Stud catchers are generally the domain for very rich teams, or teams for which all other holes have been filled. I'd love to get Realmuto, I'm just not willing to pay the price that he probably has attached to him.

 

I'd be fine with a far lower price in prospects for one of the other catching upgrades mentioned in this thread, as part-year rentals, if we continue to hang around the periphery of the AL Central lead. We lack anything resembling a complete player at that position.

 

I agree 

 

Realmuto will probably cost more than it costs to get Ozuna but Ozuna will give you more production and be able to play 162 games when Catchers are rare if they eclipse 120 games. 

 

If you are going to pay that kind of price for Realmuto... you might as well spend it on something that really moves the needle with 30 plus home run production. 

 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I agree

 

Realmuto will probably cost more than it costs to get Ozuna but Ozuna will give you more production and be able to play 162 games when Catchers are rare if they eclipse 120 games.

 

If you are going to pay that kind of price for Realmuto... you might as well spend it on something that really moves the needle with 30 plus home run production.

Which outfielder are we giving up on, to acquire another outfielder? Or third baseman, or middle infielder, which is why catcher makes sense, imo, they don't have any. They do have outfielders.

[Riverbrian]

 

Which outfielder are we giving up on, to acquire another outfielder? Or third baseman, or middle infielder, which is why catcher makes sense, imo, they don't have any. They do have outfielders.

 

Not giving up on. Managing playing time more appropriately. 

 

This is why I've always said that I'm not a starting 9 guy. I personally have a problem with shoe-horning a guy into a starting role and taking whatever comes from him. I believe in Buxton but believing in Buxton doesn't mean he gets to show up to the ball park to see his name in the lineup every night with his slash line. 

 

I look at this way... We don't have to dump Buxton. Just change your expectation of him until he can provide it.  if we simply keep him on the roster (don't completely bench him) and let him dictate how much playing time by how much he contributes. We go from forcing a .383 OPS guy into the lineup every day to having depth. Honest competition for the playing time. 

 

Look at the Brewers... They had a great outfield and they still signed Cain and traded for Yelich. Now they have depth coming out of their ears at all positions. If they had Morrison hitting like Morrison they have an option to play instead.

 

They don't have to suffer through a .400 OPS from Keon Braxton while they wait to see if he is gonna be what everyone says he will be. They'll call him up when Yelich or Cain get's a boo-boo. 

 

Catchers don't hit that well and they don't play that often. If you are going to pay the price for position scarcity... Pay it for something that really moves the needle. 

 

 

 

 

 

[twinsbaby]

If we start Realmuto + Urena for Romero + Lewis + Kirilloff + Gordon + Graterol, we should deal that. All in prospect for WIN right now. Throwing all farm system, we have no time to continue lose.

 

Then, signing Lance Lynn and Morrison for multi-year, multi-million dollar contracts. We need to WIN right now.

[Mike Sixel]

Not giving up on. Managing playing time more appropriately.

 

This is why I've always said that I'm not a starting 9 guy. I personally have a problem with shoe-horning a guy into a starting role and taking whatever comes from him. I believe in Buxton but believing in Buxton doesn't mean he gets to show up to the ball park to see his name in the lineup every night with his slash line.

 

I look at this way... We don't have to dump Buxton. Just change your expectation of him until he can provide it. if we simply keep him on the roster (don't completely bench him) and let him dictate how much playing time by how much he contributes. We go from forcing a .383 OPS guy into the lineup every day to having depth. Honest competition for the playing time.

 

Look at the Brewers... They had a great outfield and they still signed Cain and traded for Yelich. Now they have depth coming out of their ears at all positions. If they had Morrison hitting like Morrison they have an option to play instead.

 

They don't have to suffer through a .400 OPS from Keon Braxton while they wait to see if he is gonna be what everyone says he will be. They'll call him up when Yelich or Cain get's a boo-boo.

 

Catchers don't hit that well and they don't play that often. If you are going to pay the price for position scarcity... Pay it for something that really moves the needle.

He is putting up four to five war.... And if his backup puts up one, that's not good? That's not worth dealing for?

[Mike Sixel]

Not giving up on. Managing playing time more appropriately.

 

This is why I've always said that I'm not a starting 9 guy. I personally have a problem with shoe-horning a guy into a starting role and taking whatever comes from him. I believe in Buxton but believing in Buxton doesn't mean he gets to show up to the ball park to see his name in the lineup every night with his slash line.

 

I look at this way... We don't have to dump Buxton. Just change your expectation of him until he can provide it. if we simply keep him on the roster (don't completely bench him) and let him dictate how much playing time by how much he contributes. We go from forcing a .383 OPS guy into the lineup every day to having depth. Honest competition for the playing time.

 

Look at the Brewers... They had a great outfield and they still signed Cain and traded for Yelich. Now they have depth coming out of their ears at all positions. If they had Morrison hitting like Morrison they have an option to play instead.

 

They don't have to suffer through a .400 OPS from Keon Braxton while they wait to see if he is gonna be what everyone says he will be. They'll call him up when Yelich or Cain get's a boo-boo.

 

Catchers don't hit that well and they don't play that often. If you are going to pay the price for position scarcity... Pay it for something that really moves the needle.

So, trade prospects for another outfielder, but not a catcher? That seems like an odd use of resources to me.

[Riverbrian]

 

He is putting up four to five war.... And if his backup puts up one, that's not good? That's not worth dealing for?

 

Realmuto would be great. 

 

Just worried he would be cost prohibitive because of position scarcity. 

[Riverbrian]

 

So, trade prospects for another outfielder, but not a catcher? That seems like an odd use of resources to me.

 

Not many get my brilliance. 

 

 

[USAFChief]

Not giving up on. Managing playing time more appropriately. 

 

This is why I've always said that I'm not a starting 9 guy. I personally have a problem with shoe-horning a guy into a starting role and taking whatever comes from him. I believe in Buxton but believing in Buxton doesn't mean he gets to show up to the ball park to see his name in the lineup every night with his slash line. 

 

I look at this way... We don't have to dump Buxton. Just change your expectation of him until he can provide it.  if we simply keep him on the roster (don't completely bench him) and let him dictate how much playing time by how much he contributes. We go from forcing a .383 OPS guy into the lineup every day to having depth. Honest competition for the playing time. 

 

Look at the Brewers... They had a great outfield and they still signed Cain and traded for Yelich. Now they have depth coming out of their ears at all positions. If they had Morrison hitting like Morrison they have an option to play instead.

 

They don't have to suffer through a .400 OPS from Keon Braxton while they wait to see if he is gonna be what everyone says he will be. They'll call him up when Yelich or Cain get's a boo-boo. 

 

Catchers don't hit that well and they don't play that often. If you are going to pay the price for position scarcity... Pay it for something that really moves the needle.

 

There isn’t a realistic trade out there that would move the needle more in the next couple years than going from what the Twins have at catcher to Realmuto.

 

 

Nobody is trading you as big an upgrade over the Twins current corner OFers provide, as what Realmuto provides, particularly considering defense.

 

Aaron Judge would be a great trade, and a huge upgrade over Kepler. Who’s trading someone like that?

 

And anyway, all the Twins needed to do was add a lefty masher to spell Rosario/Kepler and they’d have had their difference maker.

[Riverbrian]

There isn’t a realistic trade out there that would move the needle more in the next couple years than going from what the Twins have at catcher to Realmuto.

 

 

Nobody is trading you as big an upgrade over the Twins current corner OFers provide, as what Realmuto provides, particularly considering defense.

 

Aaron Judge would be a great trade, and a huge upgrade over Kepler. Who’s trading someone like that?

 

And anyway, all the Twins needed to do was add a lefty masher to spell Rosario/Kepler and they’d have had their difference maker.

Who knows what is realistic? I know I don't.

 

I used Marcell Ozuna for an example because Ozuna was traded but who knows if the Orioles part with Schoop or if the White Sox part with Abreu. And then you gotta factor in years of control, salary, which is going to skew the discussion.

 

I'm just saying... Catcher are over pays. Lucroy cost the Rangers Brinson... Brinson got Yelich. Avila cost Candelario.

 

We have posters talking about 4 players out of our top ten prospects for Realmuto without batting an eye.

 

I'm batting an eye and saying if you are going to give up 4 players out of our top ten prospects for someone. Go get someone who will step into the 3 spot and play every day.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm just saying... Catcher are over pays. Lucroy cost the Rangers Brinson... Brinson got Yelich. Avila cost Candelario. 

To be fair, in both of those deals the catchers were packaged with very good relievers (Lucroy plus Jeremy Jeffress, and Avila plus Justin Wilson).

 

Of course, the Marlins might try to do the same. Or just ask the equivalent price, since Realmuto is younger with more team control than the aforementioned catchers were.

[Riverbrian]

To be fair, in both of those deals the catchers were packaged with very good relievers (Lucroy plus Jeremy Jeffress, and Avila plus Justin Wilson).

 

Of course, the Marlins might try to do the same. Or just ask the equivalent price, since Realmuto is younger with more team control than the aforementioned catchers were.

Yeah I get that but the price for top end catching remains high regardless.

 

Realmuto with that team control you mentioned should drive the price through the roof and the Twins have under performance in a lot of spots besides catcher so I think it makes more sense to pull in a bigger fish elsewhere with our limited resources.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm batting an eye and saying if you are going to give up 4 players our of our top ten prospects for someone. Got get someone who will step into the 3 spot and play every day. 

Shouldn't we be looking at the relative improvement?

 

Looks like the Twins catchers are about replacement level. If Realmuto comes in and posts a prorated 3-4 WAR over a 120 game season, that's still a 3-4 win improvement per season.

 

If the Twins had another long-term hole to fill that could yield a similar relative improvement, I'd be all ears, but I don't see one. The other spots seem covered (or at least have the best potential to be covered) from within.

[Riverbrian]

Shouldn't we be looking at the relative improvement?

 

Looks like the Twins catchers are about replacement level. If Realmuto comes in and posts a prorated 3-4 WAR over a 120 game season, that's still a 3-4 win improvement per season.

 

If the Twins had another long-term hole to fill that could yield a similar relative improvement, I'd be all ears, but I don't see one. The other spots seem covered (or at least have the best potential to be covered) from within.

I’m not a war guy so I tend not to speak that language.

 

Once 2019 hits... we could be looking for a replacement for Mauer, Dozier, Rscobar, Morrison, Lynn, Santana, Rodney. Plus Buxton and Sano are question marks at the moment. We will have other needs besides catcher and I’m not sure that Nick Gordon and Realmuto will fill all those spots.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I’m not a war guy so I tend not to speak that language.

Once 2019 hits... we could be looking for a replacement for Mauer, Dozier, Rscobar, Morrison, Lynn, Santana, Rodney. Plus Buxton and Sano are question marks at the moment. We will have other needs besides catcher and I’m not sure that Nick Gordon and Realmuto will fill all those spots.

Question marks, sure, but Buxton is your best bet in CF right now. He's not getting replaced before 2019. Same for Sano, really, although it might not be at 3B.

 

3 of the guys you mention replacing just signed here on fairly cheap 1 year deals. I think those positions are easier to address in free agency. (And we may have enough pitchers to not worry too much about further external replacements, especially considering we have team options on Santana and Rodney.)

 

And we're flush with cash after the season. We can easily re-sign Dozier and/or Escobar if we want too.

 

What is your plan for 2019 at catcher? Here are the potential free agents:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html

 

Drew Butera (35)
Robinson Chirinos (35) — $2.375MM club option with a $100K buyout
A.J. Ellis (38)
Tyler Flowers (33)
Yasmani Grandal (30)
Nick Hundley (35)
Jonathan Lucroy (33)
Martin Maldonado (32)
Jeff Mathis (36)
Brian McCann (35) — $15MM club/player option
Devin Mesoraco (31)
Miguel Montero (35)
Wilson Ramos (31)
Rene Rivera (35)
Kurt Suzuki (35)
Matt Wieters (33)

 

Note this also suggests the Dodgers, Astros, Nationals, Braves, etc. could be looking for catchers too, so there would be competition.

[yarnivek1972]

Shouldn't we be looking at the relative improvement?

 

Looks like the Twins catchers are about replacement level. If Realmuto comes in and posts a prorated 3-4 WAR over a 120 game season, that's still a 3-4 win improvement per season.

 

If the Twins had another long-term hole to fill that could yield a similar relative improvement, I'd be all ears, but I don't see one. The other spots seem covered (or at least have the best potential to be covered) from within.

 

Really?

 

Who’s on first or DH next year? Morrison? Sano? Are you really okay with that unless both show marked improvement?

 

I don’t know’s on third either...

 

And if Buxton doesn’t figure things out the Twins need a new center fielder. They won’t give him forever. If he still hits like crap by end of 2019 he will not be on the team. That will be almost 2000 PA. If a guy can’t figure it out by then, he probably won’t. Same goes for Sano frankly.

 

Still could use 2-3 high end relievers and as promising as Berrios looks, an ace caliber pitcher is always a need.

[jorgenswest]

My plan at catcher this year is play Garver four times a week. My hope is that he earns the job for next year with his performance the remainder of the season. It is way too early to make that call. Castro is not a solution as a starter next year but would be a good backup to Garver.

 

If they can find a better veteran than Rupp or Wilson to pair with Garver this year it would help.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Of course there is a price for Realmuto that is too high, but I'd be curious what that is. Let's use an earlier poster's research as a baseline:

 

Gordon and Gonsalves are worth about $50M. The Twins would have to add a couple more prospects to make a deal. Maybe Rooker/ Rortvedt or Javier/Garver? 

 

So Gordon, Gonsalves, Rooker, and Rortvedt for Realmuto. (Or Gordon, Gonsalves, Javier, and Garver for Realmuto.)

 

What do you all think? Yea or nay?

 

If there was any such thing as a Marlins fan, I would be curious of their perspective too. I'm sure they might rather get an elite prospect, but looking around, I'm not sure one would be forthcoming. I could see them waiting until the deadline but eventually accepting this offer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Really?

Who’s on first or DH next year? Morrison? Sano? Are you really okay with that unless both show marked improvement?

I don’t know’s on third either...

And if Buxton doesn’t figure things out the Twins need a new center fielder. They won’t give him forever. If he still hits like crap by end of 2019 he will not be on the team. That will be almost 2000 PA. If a guy can’t figure it out by then, he probably won’t. Same goes for Sano frankly.

Still could use 2-3 high end relievers and as promising as Berrios looks, an ace caliber pitcher is always a need.

 

I didn't mean that the Twins won't have other positions to upgrade. I just think the relative upgrade of Realmuto at catcher might be greater than the relative upgrade of any other single position. So I disagree with Brian's argument of, "let's save our prospects to upgrade at another position instead".

 

I'm disappointed with Sano and Buxton, but I don't think there's any way you replace them before opening day 2019.

 

We've got plenty of cash to address the other needs you mention, if we want. But I don't see how cash is going to help much at catcher.