Article: May Day is Coming for the Twins

[Oxtung]

It makes no sense to send May back to AAA at this point. Either he is good enough to make the rotation now, or he needs to move to the bullpen. He isn't young anymore; he is in his prime right now. In addition the Rochester and Chattanooga rosters have a glut of starting pitchers ready to fill in the Twins rotation who are younger and at this point have more long term upside. Gonsalves, Mejia, Jorge, Littel, Slegers, Stewart and Thorpe are both capable and soon are going to need opportunities to show if they belong in MLB. If you send May back to AAA it just clouds the long term plans and wastes one of his prime years. Besides, this bullpen needs as much help as it can get.

[jorgenswest]

Lynn’s 7.0 BB per 9 IP is less than ideal for the rotation as well.

Only 8 starts? That’s 1/4 of the season.

A lot of people like to use the NFL season analogy. If your QB had 3 interceptions per game for the first 4 weeks, he would no longer be your QB.

If the Twins had put a league average starter in those turns, they would probably have a couple more wins. Of course, there is no evidence such a starter was available, but that is on Falvine.

I am not sure 8 previous starts is predictive of the next 8 starts. If they were and it was reasonable to expect the same walk rate going forward then he should be removed from the rotation.

 

It might also be reasonable to expect the walk rate to return to previous norms.

 

I hope he has a good June and July so they can flip him at the deadline.

[yarnivek1972]

I am not sure 8 previous starts is predictive of the next 8 starts. If they were and it was reasonable to expect the same walk rate going forward then he should be removed from the rotation.

 

It might also be reasonable to expect the walk rate to return to previous norms.

 

I hope he has a good June and July so they can flip him at the deadline.

Lynn’s career walk rate is 3.5 per 9. Is that somehow less of a concern than May’s 3.6?

 

If Lynn is still throwing walking practice when May is ready, Trevor should absolutely replace him.

 

I don’t have any data, but I’ll bet someone a lot smarter than me can look it up. How likelly is it that Lynn’s approach was getting National League hitters to swing at pitches that AL hitters, more patient by virtue of the DH, aren’t? It certainly shouldn’t account for a doubling of his walk rate, but I bet it’s a factor.

 

The Twins need to find out if Trevor May is part of this team’s future. And if so, in what role. As far as I am concerned, this is a lost season. Too many players underperforming or (like Sano, Polanco, et al) not performing at all. Time to move on IMO. Yes, I am aware if the standings. I’m also aware that third place in a division where the leader is sub .500 means your team is bad and your division stinks.

[nmcowboy]

 

Do you think the Twins are ready to cut bait on Hughes and his salary?

We can only hope.........

Regarding May, I don't have a strong opinion on whether he should start or be in the pen, but there is no question in my mind that he should take the roster spot currently being wasted on Hughes.

[jtkoupal]

It makes perfect sense to keep May in the bullpen for the sake of having a multi-inning guy down there. 

 

Starters shouldn't be allowed to face the lineup for the third time, so it is necessary to keep multi-inning guys down there.

 

The more effective innings you can get from your bullpen, the less you have to expose your starting rotation, so I like the idea of keeping May down there for insulation. 

[jorgenswest]

Lynn’s career walk rate is 3.5 per 9. Is that somehow less of a concern than May’s 3.6?

If Lynn is still throwing walking practice when May is ready, Trevor should absolutely replace him.

I don’t have any data, but I’ll bet someone a lot smarter than me can look it up. How likelly is it that Lynn’s approach was getting National League hitters to swing at pitches that AL hitters, more patient by virtue of the DH, aren’t? It certainly shouldn’t account for a doubling of his walk rate, but I bet it’s a factor.

The Twins need to find out if Trevor May is part of this team’s future. And if so, in what role. As far as I am concerned, this is a lost season. Too many players underperforming or (like Sano, Polanco, et al) not performing at all. Time to move on IMO. Yes, I am aware if the standings. I’m also aware that third place in a division where the leader is sub .500 means your team is bad and your division stinks.

Yes. I keep pitching Lynn. I count on his walk rate to return to his career norm prior to this season and I trade him in July. I start May in AAA with his last option and I ease his workload up. He hasn’t been a starter since June of 2015. The time in AAA will be valuable and it will be much easier to adjust his workload and give him any needed extra rest at that level.

 

I think we do agree that this roster is not one that can compete with the best of the AL. My plan would be to try to squeeze out the most value I can from the players who will be free agents. It is reasonable that Lynn will perform over his next 8 starts near his career norms. If that happens, the Twins will find a trade partner. The previous 8 starts aren’t a great predictor of the next 8 starts particularly when those previous 8 are not inline with career norms.

[Doctor Wu]

And, as someone posted last week, there is also the impending return and Minnesota debut of Michael Pineda sometime this summer. Hope that Santana gets to the mound before that time, but who knows at this point. Like the decision with Trevor May, will the Twins stick Pineda in the bullpen to start with, or give him some starts?

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

Nothing wrong with your logic here but have to bring up 2 points:

2] He had back issues when pitching out of the pen in 2016, and that has been at least partially attributed to the workload and routine change from being a reliever.

In talking with him, May has suggested that the back issues were something less related to relieving as they were to an actual injury he has since targeted and believes is behind him.

[beckmt]

 

In talking with him, May has suggested that the back issues were something less related to relieving as they were to an actual injury he has since targeted and believes is behind him.

If this is the case, put May in the pen and cut Hughes.  I know this is painful moneywise, but the division can be taken if we can put on a hot streak.  

Other side of the coin, if this club continues to not preform, trade everything that is not part of the future in June and July.  You have 1 1/2 months to figure this out.

[Mike Sixel]

May should be Andrew Miller for this team.

[Vanimal46]

May should be Andrew Miller for this team.

That would be a nice role for him... But was/is he that good to handle a role like that? His performance as a RP before wasn't "fireman" like.

[Mike Sixel]

That would be a nice role for him... But was/is he that good to handle a role like that? His performance as a RP before wasn't "fireman" like.

Only one way to find out. There is not currently room in the rotation, and they need a Miller type. Him or Slegers.

[yarnivek1972]

I think you let May try to have success as a starter before trying him in the pen. Starters are far more valuable and it is a lot easier to go from being a starter to a reliever than vice versa during the season.

 

As for “no open spot”, maybe talk to Lance Lynn about that.

 

I keep seeing “he will normalize”. Based on what evidence? He’s not throwing strikes. It’s been a problem since day 1. Whatever adjustments he is trying to make or whatever fixes the coaching staff has tried obviously aren’t helping. At what point is it time to acknowledge that maybe this is who he is now?

Edited May 21, 2018 by yarnivek1972

[Mike Sixel]

Slegers, Gonsalves, eventually Santana and Mejia can take Lynn's spot. And, Andrew Miller is worth more than a number four starter. Imo. What value does May provide this year, as a starter compared to those players? Imo, not more.

[USAFChief]

The Twins could use a power bullpen arm much more than an iffy starter.

 

Put him in the pen where he has always belonged. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

The Twins could use a power bullpen arm much more than an iffy starter.

 

Put him in the pen where he has always belonged. 

 

What if he could be more than an iffy starter?  I'm not sure I'm sold on that characterization of his potential.

 

(I know he's older, but he's also be foolishly yanked around)

[Mike Sixel]

What if he could be more than an iffy starter? I'm not sure I'm sold on that characterization of his potential.

 

(I know he's older, but he's also be foolishly yanked around)

In context of this year, they need a really good two inning RP much more badly. The time of seven, even six, inning starts is at an end. Embrace the future!

[TheLeviathan]

 

In context of this year, they need a really good two inning RP much more badly. The time of seven, even six, inning starts is at an end. Embrace the future!

 

I guess I'm skeptical he'd be used that way.  If he became a 3-4 times a week guy who gives us 1-3 innings of high leverage relief....well alright then.

 

I just have my doubts.  Not necessarily because of Molitor or the FO or anything....I think I've just been beaten down on ever thinking the Twins will be ahead of the curve.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess I'm skeptical he'd be used that way. If he became a 3-4 times a week guy who gives us 1-3 innings of high leverage relief....well alright then.

 

I just have my doubts. Not necessarily because of Molitor or the FO or anything....I think I've just been beaten down on ever thinking the Twins will be ahead of the curve.

I know the feeling. I remain hopeful

[DocBauer]

In talking with him, May has suggested that the back issues were something less related to relieving as they were to an actual injury he has since targeted and believes is behind him.

Now if that's true it changes the dynamics quite a bit. He could really stack the pen with Rodney (here for this season at least), Reed, Pressly and Hildenberger.

 

Only problem is, I still believe he could be a quality starter. And I know Santana will be back, and Gonsalves is close. Personally, I think Slegers has the ability to be at least a solid #5. Pineda next season? Mejia still has potential as well. It's a nice problem to have for sure.

[DocBauer]

Slegers, Gonsalves, eventually Santana and Mejia can take Lynn's spot. And, Andrew Miller is worth more than a number four starter. Imo. What value does May provide this year, as a starter compared to those players? Imo, not more.

A great point! And let's not forget Pineda next season. Littell also shows potential. But Santana, even if brought back in 2019, is probably here that one more season. Gibson is under team control for one more season. Pines also for one more season. And in Reed, Curtiss, Benitez and maybe even Bard, there are some good BP arms at Rochester.

 

I'm not saying he shouldn't be in the pen, or that he couldn't excel there. Maybe he's even the next great arm there. I'm just a little hesitant to move him there when he could be a quality ML starter.

 

BTW, couldn't your same arguement be made for Mejia? I think he's got enough pure stuff to make an excellent RP if starting doesn't quite work out.

[Mike Sixel]

A great point! And let's not forget Pineda next season. Littell also shows potential. But Santana, even if brought back in 2019, is probably here that one more season. Gibson is under team control for one more season. Pines also for one more season. And in Reed, Curtiss, Benitez and maybe even Bard, there are some good BP arms at Rochester.

 

I'm not saying he shouldn't be in the pen, or that he couldn't excel there. Maybe he's even the next great arm there. I'm just a little hesitant to move him there when he could be a quality ML starter.

 

BTW, couldn't your same arguement be made for Mejia? I think he's got enough pure stuff to make an excellent RP if starting doesn't quite work out.

It could. But he's not healthy. So I'm not worried about him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

May should be Andrew Miller for this team.

Andrew Miller isn't even Andrew Miller until the postseason. In the regular season, he has averaged right around 1 IP per appearance.

 

There are very, very few Miller types in the regular season, and only for short terms. Hader might be doing it for Milwaukee right now, but we will see how long it lasts.

 

The Twins might want such a performance, but I am highly skeptical any of their pitchers could provide it (except perhaps Berrios or Romero, who are obviously in other roles).

[Brock Beauchamp]

It makes no sense to send May back to AAA at this point. Either he is good enough to make the rotation now, or he needs to move to the bullpen.

Why doesn't it make sense? Guys coming off TJS recovery often lack command over their breaking stuff. I don't think anyone is saying May gets stashed in Rochester for the season, maybe just a month or two until he has a feel for pitching again.

 

But if May has command over his breaking stuff right off the bat, it's a different situation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why doesn't it make sense? Guys coming off TJS recovery often lack command over their breaking stuff. I don't think anyone is saying May gets stashed in Rochester for the season, maybe just a month or two until he has a feel for pitching again.

 

But if May has command over his breaking stuff right off the bat, it's a different situation.

Well, you could say that *optioning* him right away doesn't make sense. Might as well use extended rehab for any immediate minor league work he might need. (Although saving his option year for his age 29 season might not make sense either, but we did wind up using options on Gibson at age 29, and Pressly at age 28.)

[Oxtung]

 

Why doesn't it make sense? Guys coming off TJS recovery often lack command over their breaking stuff. I don't think anyone is saying May gets stashed in Rochester for the season, maybe just a month or two until he has a feel for pitching again.

 

But if May has command over his breaking stuff right off the bat, it's a different situation.

If he isn't ready to pitch he shouldn't have come off the DL. If he is ready then there is no point in returning him to AAA. 

 

Let's walk your hypothetical through a bit. It's now July 20th, the first day after the All-Star break. There are 81 games left to play and the Twins now have Santana, Gibson, Berrios, Romero, Odorizzi and Lynn who have all spent significant time in MLB this season. At least one of them will be hurt/ineffective, perhaps two so let's say they need to call up one starting pitcher from AAA in addition to the aforementioned players.

 

Players with previous MLB experience:

Mejia

Slegers

Jorge

May

 

MiLB players with future rotation potential:

Gonsalves

Littell

Thorpe

 

Everybody's ranking of those players will be different and I think we can all agree that on July 20th May will have a better chance of being successful than some of those pitchers. However, how big a gap is there between May and say Gonsalves, Mejia or Slegers? Is that gap worth wasting two months of a potentially back of the bullpen option? Do you want to prevent a younger player from gaining experience that might help them in future years?

[Mr. Brooks]

If he isn't ready to pitch he shouldn't have come off the DL. If he is ready then there is no point in returning him to AAA.

 

Let's walk your hypothetical through a bit. It's now July 20th, the first day after the All-Star break. There are 81 games left to play and the Twins now have Santana, Gibson, Berrios, Romero, Odorizzi and Lynn who have all spent significant time in MLB this season. At least one of them will be hurt/ineffective, perhaps two so let's say they need to call up one starting pitcher from AAA in addition to the aforementioned players.

 

Players with previous MLB experience:

Mejia

Slegers

Jorge

May

 

MiLB players with future rotation potential:

Gonsalves

Littell

Thorpe

 

Everybody's ranking of those players will be different and I think we can all agree that on July 20th May will have a better chance of being successful than some of those pitchers. However, how big a gap is there between May and say Gonsalves, Mejia or Slegers? Is that gap worth wasting two months of a potentially back of the bullpen option? Do you want to prevent a younger player from gaining experience that might help them in future years?

They can't keep him on the DL if he's healthy.

He could be fully recovered from the injury, from a medical position (which would make him ineligible to remain on the DL), but still not have good command of his pitches.

[Brock Beauchamp]

They can't keep him on the DL if he's healthy.

He could be fully recovered from the injury, from a medical position (which would make him ineligible to remain on the DL), but still not have good command of his pitches.

Exactly. We’ve seen it plenty of times with guys coming off TJS.

[yarnivek1972]

Neither Jorge or Mejia are currently healthy. Indeed, Jorge has yet to appear in a game in 2018 and it’s been almost a month for Mejia. Slegers kinda strikes me as smoke and mirrors. It plays in AAA, not sure it will at the MLB level. So far, it has not. He’s made 4 MLB appearances. The first was pretty good. The other 3 were mediocre to poor. The Twins won’t know how May will perform as a starter at the MLB level unless or until they let him start.

 

I think the pen will be okay as long as they don’t get overworked. More effective starting pitching would go a long way to helping that. Of the top 10 teams in MLB in IP from starting pitchers, 7 are within 2 games of a playoff spot. Washington is 3 games out in the East and Texas and Kansas City are obviously bottom feeders.

 

It’s not a perfect measure, obviously not all teams have played the same number of games. And the Twins are still below almost every team in games played. But they are still about 1/3 of an inning BELOW the AL avg start of 5.6 IP per start. If the Twins want to be a contender, I think they need to be ABOVE average in this category. Will May help do that? There’s only one way to find out.

[Oxtung]

They can't keep him on the DL if he's healthy.

He could be fully recovered from the injury, from a medical position (which would make him ineligible to remain on the DL), but still not have good command of his pitches.

There is a lot of wiggle room in these kinds of things. They kept Hughes at AAA for a month to begin the year for Christ’s sake.