Article: Joe Mauer's Future

[beckmt]

Let's not forget he also has 3 batting titles as a catcher.  Those are 2 more than any other catcher and they count.  He still has a very high OBP, so what he is lacking is the HR's.

FYI Pizza was not a good catcher.

[Nine of twelve]

Let's take it a bit further and look at the huge Mauer contract:

 

2017: Mauer has 2.3 WAR. WAR is worth $10.5 mill. Mauer is worth $24.15 mill

2016: Mauer has 0.9 WAR. WAR is worth $10.2 mill. Mauer is worth $9.18 mill

2015: Mauer has 0.2 WAR. WAR is worth $9.6 mill. Mauer is worth $1.92 mill

2014: Mauer has 1.6 WAR. WAR is worth $7.7 mill. Mauer is worth $12.32 mill

2013: Mauer has 5.2 WAR. WAR is worth $7.2 mill. Mauer is worth $37.44 mill

2012: Mauer has 4.5 WAR. WAR is worth $6.2 mill. Mauer is worth $27.9 mill

2011: Mauer has 1.2 WAR. WAR is worth $7.4 mill. Mauer is worth $8.88 mill.

 

Thus far Mauer has been worth $121.79 million in all but the final year of a $184 million contract. 

 

He needs a pretty big throwback season to make the whole contract worth it. If WAR is worth $10.5 million this year he'd need a 6.0 WAR season. So far he has 0.6 WAR and is on pace for 8.8 WAR. Let's rewrite this narrative and make that contract worth it!

None of this has any bearing on his perceived future value. That's what what will drive contract negotiations wherever he lands.

[DocBauer]

Mauer has never been a power hitter, with the exception of his one season, as either a catcher or 1B. And he's not going to become one now. To be fair, he's been a pretty decent doubles hitter for most of his career. 1B is regarded as being a power position. But it doesn't have to be. If you have power in the OF, power at 3B, power at DH, (potentially now with Morrison), and power at 2B, (for NOW anyway), and even some power from other's in your lineup and bench, who says Mauer HAS to be replaced because he doesn't have HR power? He provides AVG, OB, contact, 2 strike ability, and stands in well against LHP. He also plays outstanding defense at 1B.

 

SOMETHING has clearly changed in Mauer and it would clearly seem to be further healing and removal from his concussion issues. He's also been healthier since the move to 1B. Unless his 2017 season and start to this season are illusions, he should be brought back.

 

At this point, nothing wrong going 1 year at a time. But I'd bet 2 years for around $10M per. And I'd think that would be very fair to all parties.

 

As a side note, and not an attempt to change the thread, but Mauer at $10M and Dozier re-signed for $18M per would still be less than they are making combined this season, (approximately $33M I believe).

[Rosterman]

It all depends on:

 

(1) Salary. Would he sign continuous 1-year contracts for $8-10, or will it be $10-13 (or more).

 

(2) Who's on first. Rooker and Diaz are at least a year out for regular play. Morrison could be a choice. Sano breaks down and needs to play 1B or DH. If anything see Sano as cementing the DH spot for a longtime to come if the Twins can find a salary haven they both like.

 

(3) Is there a true job for him with the Twins on the field. Mauer is not going to be a bench player. No doubt, he could find one year deals for a substantial amount of $$$ most anywhere, as long as he wants to play, and don't see him playing for a mil (shades of Ichiro) when Joe turns 40.

 

 

[bean5302]

Mauer made a clear and obvious adjustment last year. Surrounded by better hitters, Mauer's getting better pitches to hit and he doesn't appear to be pressing as hard as he was.

 

Mauer is swinging at far fewer pitches outside the zone, he's making much better contact, and he's seeing higher hard-hit rates. His K rate continued its 3rd consecutive annual decline, his line drive rate rebounded and he didn't lose any significant speed from the previous season.

 

I think Mauer could have another, better, season this year if he continues to punish teams for shifting against him and his HR/FB rate gets back to where it was for 4 of the previous 5 seasons. I don't think an OPS in the mid-800s and a 3.5-4.0 WAR is out of the question.

[70charger]

 

I will simply say this and move forward,....

Why are we pushing Joe out there for three more years given he suffered post-traumatic effects from a brain injury for three seasons?  Someone that has suffered a traumatic brain injury needn't be playing professional sports into their late 30s. The guy has a family to think of and he has all the money he could ever need.

 

First of all, neither I nor anyone else is "pushing him out there." He wants to be there, and he's a good player. And not only does Joe not have to play pro sports, he doesn't have to do a goddamn thing the rest of his life.

 

And literally none of that is the point, nor is any of it a good argument.

 

Does he want to continue playing? Apparently yes. Has he healed up well? Apparently yes. Can he continue to help the team? Apparently yes. He sure did last year, and so far this year it's looking very good. Attempting to hide behind a fake concern for his family is just cynical.

 

So...I think we're done here.

[Kelly Vance]

 

There are many Carew jerseys. I recommend against signing Rod.

deliberately miss the point much?    Fans revere Carew, Killebrew, Oliva, Kirby.   But Joe is bringing in revenue way beyond those guys combined. 

 

[Kelly Vance]

 

Hits AS A CATCHER with (home runs and RBI at that position):

 

Bench:1,464 (327, 1,184)

Piazza: 1,906 (396, 1,205)

Fisk: 2,145 (351, 1,197)

Berra: 1,756 (291, 1,256)

 

How about this guy?
Simmons: 1,908 (195, 1,062)

 

AS A CATCHER

Mauer: 1,118 (91, 514)

 

 

 

If we are going to compare Mauer to other catchers then it necessitates a comparison to those other catchers based on what they did at the catcher's position.  It's only right if we are going to compare him to those players.  The writer's with voting credentials will most certainly discuss and review those numbers.  It will matter

forgetting, of course, that Mauer is more versatile than allofthoseguys

[TFRazor]

 

Some talk about Joe's HOF chances on another thread. Thought I'd add some food for thought:

 

Johnny Bench had 2,048 hits

Mike Piazza had 2,127 hits

Carlton Fisk had 2,356 hits

Yogi Berra had 2,150 hits

 

Joe? He's already at 2,000 and will likely surpass all these guys. Yeah yeah, he's been at first base for a few of those games. I don't think that hurts him as much as some of you think.

Especially if he ends up getting a gold glove at 1st. That should quiet the "but he changed positions" crowd.

[TFRazor]

 

Facts: In 2017, among 28 qualified first basemen, Mauer ranked: 

16th in WAR, 19th in wOBA, 19th in wRC+, 20th in OPS,  and 5th in batting average

 

In other words, in metrics that reflect overall performance, he was in the lowest third in the league.

Yes.  Having a first baseman who is in the bottom third of the third basement, hurts a team that wants to compete in the post-season.

 

Tell this to the Astros. They just won a World Series where the only thing their first baseman was effective at was using a racial slur

[diehardtwinsfan]

The first problem I see is that this is a hard conversation to even fathom until we have a better idea how Joe holds up over the course of this season. I'm going to make an assumption that the Joe we've seen thus far will be pretty similar to the guy that plays the whole year. No, I don't think he will hit .400 (though that will cement the HOF discussion if he does), but I could see a vintage Joe season of a .320 BA, .400 OBP, and a high .400s SLG. That won't be a 6 WAR season at 1st, but it would be pretty respectable, and in an MLB world where there's way too many 2 outcome type guys, a guy like Joe that can get on base more than anyone and has plenty of doubles power to go with it with GG defense. If he does significantly worse, then I'd probably pass, but as long as that OPS stays over .800, I don't see a scenario where upgrading Mauer in the short term will be easy or cheap. 

 

In the minors, you have Vargas (who I'm guessing will not return next year as a 6th year FA) and Rooker. I like Rooker, but I think it's a stretch to say he's going to be ready next year at this time. Realistically, he's likely going to be ready at some point in 2019, but most likely not on April 1. And that is probably a best case scenario. Rooker could stall in AA for all of 2018 and still be a decent prospect, but that would push is ETA to 2020 if that happened.

 

In the majors we have LoMo for 2019 and an opening at DH if Mauer is gone. In 2020, LoMo is gone. Rooker will likely be in the conversation, as could a guy like Lewin Diaz. Perhaps one of the really young guys could surprise, but I'm not sure I'd count on that personally. Bottom line is that other than Rooker, I don't see anyone coming up the pipe that could be a plausible option for 2 spots in 2020 and 1 spot in 2019.

 

That brings me back to Mauer. If he continues to hit, I think there's a good fit here. As a matter of fact, a great one. I don't think a 3-4 year deal would be smart, especially at 36. I do think a 2 year deal with a club or vesting option for a 3rd makes a ton of sense for both parties, especially if Mauer wants to stay. I think he gets somewhere in the 6-10M range per year, and that will depend a lot on how the season plays out. If it's vintage Joe, then probably closer to 10... and I'm fine with that. What I don't see is the team going crazy in FA and getting the best bat out there. We all want that, don't get me wrong, but this will also be a that time where they are doing long term deals with the current core. That high priced deal might mean a guy like Rosario or Kepler ends up being shipped away because they are too expensive. I think Mauer provides plenty of value, and I also think that it's a bit underappreciated in the two outcome baseball that we see today. 

 

So in short, if he keeps hitting, I'm giving him a 2-3 year deal. 

[DrNeau]

 

Some talk about Joe's HOF chances on another thread. Thought I'd add some food for thought:

 

Johnny Bench had 2,048 hits

Mike Piazza had 2,127 hits

Carlton Fisk had 2,356 hits

Yogi Berra had 2,150 hits

 

Joe? He's already at 2,000 and will likely surpass all these guys. Yeah yeah, he's been at first base for a few of those games. I don't think that hurts him as much as some of you think.

 

Wally Joyner - 2,060 hits

Don Mattingly - 2,153 hits

Mark Grace - 2,443 hits

[bighat]

 

Wally Joyner - 2,060 hits

Don Mattingly - 2,153 hits

Mark Grace - 2,443 hits

 

None of them were catchers for the majority of their careers, though. I think that's Joe's ace in the hole.

[bighat]

 

I compared the numbers from what these players did at the catcher position.   Those are just facts and those numbers will be reviewed in the process. 

 

You also just compared stats that reflected negatively on Mauer. For example, you didn't compare career averages as a catcher, season highs in batting average (none of those other guys ever batted .365), MVP trophies, or OBP.

 

So I'm guessing you were kinda trying to bash Mauer in relation to those other guys. No problem with that, you are entitled to your opinion. And you made some good points also. I agree Mauer's got an uphill battle but I do think he deserves heavy consideration for the HOF.

Edited April 14, 2018 by bighat

[Richie the Rally Goat]

FTFY

agreed, too many catcher miles on his legs to reach 3k hits.

 

Does 2600 or so get him into the Hall? 3 more years would put him less than 50% catcher for his career, which seems to be the threshold for catcher credentials

[Mr. Brooks]

None of them were catchers for the majority of their careers, though. I think that's Joe's ace in the hole.

Barring injury, Joe at some point in August or September (457 more plate appearances), will no longer have been a catcher for the majority of his career.

[D. Hocking]

 

agreed, too many catcher miles on his legs to reach 3k hits.

Does 2600 or so get him into the Hall? 3 more years would put him less than 50% catcher for his career, which seems to be the threshold for catcher credentials

 

I would hate to think he would get penalized due to the fact that he slipped under 50% because he was able to play at a major league level into his mid to late 30's.  That should not take away from what he did while he was catcher.

[Eris]

 

Let's take it a bit further and look at the huge Mauer contract:

 

2017: Mauer has 2.3 WAR. WAR is worth $10.5 mill. Mauer is worth $24.15 mill
2016: Mauer has 0.9 WAR. WAR is worth $10.2 mill. Mauer is worth $9.18 mill
2015: Mauer has 0.2 WAR. WAR is worth $9.6 mill. Mauer is worth $1.92 mill
2014: Mauer has 1.6 WAR. WAR is worth $7.7 mill. Mauer is worth $12.32 mill
2013: Mauer has 5.2 WAR. WAR is worth $7.2 mill. Mauer is worth $37.44 mill
2012: Mauer has 4.5 WAR. WAR is worth $6.2 mill. Mauer is worth $27.9 mill
2011: Mauer has 1.2 WAR. WAR is worth $7.4 mill. Mauer is worth $8.88 mill.

 

Thus far Mauer has been worth $121.79 million in all but the final year of a $184 million contract. 

 

He needs a pretty big throwback season to make the whole contract worth it. If WAR is worth $10.5 million this year he'd need a 6.0 WAR season. So far he has 0.6 WAR and is on pace for 8.8 WAR. Let's rewrite this narrative and make that contract worth it!

 

If you were replace Joe Mauer's down years since his concussion with his career average WAR, that would add up to $200 million.  Injuries are part of baseball.  Such is the nature of guaranteed MLB contracts.  This risk from injury is transferred from the player to the owner.  The owner should really insure against the risk of such injury.  I am happy that Joe Mauer was able to return from his concussion (unlike Cory Koskie and Justin Morneau).  Perhaps one of the learnings here is just how long it takes for the brain to fully recover from a concussion.

 

As the article is about Joe Mauer's future.  I hope he remains a productive member of the Twins for his entire career and makes it to the Hall of Fame.  I also look forward to the day when advanced sabermetrics can quantify the value of a great defensive first baseman.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I would hate to think he would get penalized due to the fact that he slipped under 50% because he was able to play at a major league level into his mid to late 30's. That should not take away from what he did while he was catcher.

true, but the bar is higher for first basemen. Joe playing catcher is historic. Joe playing first base is excellent, but not HOF. At what point does the scale tip?

[bean5302]

Like all non-HoF articles about Joe Mauer, they invariably go off topic and seek to argue his HoF likelihood.

 

This topic was, as I understand it, about who Joe Mauer is now, and what he might do for the Twins or another team in baseball next season and beyond. Mauer's distant past (as a catcher) is irrelevant unless some team out there wants Joe back behind the plate and Mauer likes that idea too, both of which seem highly unlikely.

 

Barring significant injury or a terrible season, Joe is going to be in MLB next season. I think that much is almost certain. The question is whether or not it is with the Twins.

[Kelly Vance]

You know, I had this idea that Joe ought to sign a blank contract and give the Twins the right to write in the number.  Andre Dawson did that in 1987 with the Cubs and guess who is in the HOF? 

 

But you know, Joe could become known as the greatest team player ever if he said "I've been given a lot by the Twins. I'll play 2019 for free."  Things like that make a man immortal. 

 

It is so rare... that is why it will never happen. Still, my naivete aside,  it would set him apart from everybody

[Craig Arko]

You know, I had this idea that Joe ought to sign a blank contract and give the Twins the right to write in the number.  Andre Dawson did that in 1987 with the Cubs and guess who is in the HOF? 

 

But you know, Joe could become known as the greatest team player ever if he said "I've been given a lot by the Twins. I'll play 2019 for free."  Things like that make a man immortal. 

 

It is so rare... that is why it will never happen. Still, my naivete aside,  it would set him apart from everybody

He’d likely be sanctioned and sued by the MLBPA for even suggesting such a thing.

[Kelly Vance]

MLBPA would have no case, unless this is prohibited by his union membership, which I doubt it is because I doubt it would even remotely have been considered by the union. I think there i s a loophole. . It is a matter of contract between the parties. 

 

He might get beaned his first 100 at bats though 

[D. Hocking]

 

He might get beaned his first 100 at bats though 

 

That would really help his OBP.

[highlander]

Mr Brooks I started this conversation by stating I doubt he makes 3,000 hits. Then said he could get close. Very true close is a relevant term. Being a huge fan of all things Minnesota I'm both a Twins and Mauer fan. Perfect scenario Joe leads the Twins to a World Series Championship. I also believe Joe is far from a part time player. In a lot of ways similar to Mark Grace.

[Mr. Brooks]

MLBPA would have no case, unless this is prohibited by his union membership, which I doubt it is because I doubt it would even remotely have been considered by the union. I think there i s a loophole. . It is a matter of contract between the parties.

 

He might get beaned his first 100 at bats though

There is a minimum salary in baseball, so that would not be a legal contract.

[Nine of twelve]

As of this moment Mauer is second in the majors in BA, second in the majors in OBP and seventh in the majors in OPS. A player with that kind of offensive production is more than welcome in my lineup no matter what position he plays. And if he's a stellar defender on top of that there is nothing to complain about. A 2-year extension for a player who is obviously still able to play baseball at an elite level should be a no-brainer.

Edited April 14, 2018 by Nine of twelve

[ken]

It's easier to carry a non power Mauer when your second baseman hits 30 homers. If they don't resign Dozier, first is a logical place for a power upgrade. I find it interesting that in the Dozier forum, posters were not willing to give a younger and twice as valuable player more than $15 million a year, but are okay with giving Mauer $10.

[Mr. Brooks]

It's easier to carry a non power Mauer when your second baseman hits 30 homers. If they don't resign Dozier, first is a logical place for a power upgrade. I find it interesting that in the Dozier forum, posters were not willing to give a younger and twice as valuable player more than $15 million a year, but are okay with giving Mauer $10.

I think most people in that thread were willing to go well beyond $15 million per year for Dozier, they just don't want to go beyond 3 years.

[jorgenswest]

Joe Mauer was a catcher through 2013. In every one of those years he had the wear and tear of catching. It is hard to imagine that he is close to matching his plate appearance in seasons since. It can’t even be close.

 

It would not make sense to split out any DH/PH/1B at bats from his seasons as a catcher but maybe that was what was done. He was still catching a lot of games in those years which would be tough on the body,