Article: Polanco Suspension Brings Opportunity For Others

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins had made it through 24 days of their spring training game schedule. Although Ervin Santana needed surgery, the timeline looked favorable and the organization had seen no other hiccups. Free agents were being amassed in droves, and the 2017 Wild Card team looked like it was eyeing an opportunity to close the gap in the AL Central. Then it happened; March 18th came.If St. Patrick's Day is about luck, the day following saw Minnesota have next to none. Ervin Santana reportedly cannot yet make a fist, let alone grip a baseball. That reality puts a May 1 return to the mound in serious jeopardy. The bigger bomb came in the early evening however, as starting shortstop Jorge Polanco was popped with an 80-game suspension after testing positive for PEDs.

 

When looking at the Twins 2018 outlook, it's unquestionably the loss of Polanco that impacts the club most. Despite suggesting he unknowingly ingested the banned substance Stanozolol (which coincidentally was the PED of choice for Santana back in 2015), the reality is he made a poor judgment in failing to fact check what a trainer in the Dominican may have handed him. Ideally there would've been a greater level of ownership, removing the "unknowingly" caveat, but he's decided to bypass an appeal and serve the suspension immediately. For the Twins and Paul Molitor, the question becomes where the club turns from here.

 

As I profiled just last week, Polanco was set to become the first shortstop since Pedro Florimon (13/14) to start back-to-back Opening Days for Minnesota (and just the second since Cristian Guzman in 2004). Now, Molitor will likely turn the reins over to Eduardo Escobar, who last owned the job during the 2016 season.

 

Escobar has played a solid utility role for the Minnesota Twins during his tenure following the swap that brought him over from the Chicago White Sox. The 1.6 fWAR a season ago was a nice rebound from the -0.6 fWAR he posted in 2016. The problem however, is that the negative number came with Escobar assuming the role of everyday shortstop.

 

Across 579 innings at short in 2016, Escobar was worth -7 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). Stretched out to a full season's worth of games (579 innings accounted for 66 starts), Escobar would be staring at a -17 DRS. Dating back to 2002 (where Fangraphs data begins), only 16 shortstops have posted a worse DRS over a full season. In fact, a -18 DRS was posted in 2012 by a 38-year-old Derek Jeter, just to provide a visual for what that may look like. In short, it's not much of a surprise why the Twins played Escobar at short in just 16 games a year ago, even with the emergence of Polanco.

 

For Eduardo, his calling card with Minnesota has been and will continue to be his bat. His positional flexibility is relative, given that he can play many, but is below average (-5 DRS in 600+ innings at 3B in 2017) at all of them. Coming off a career best .758 OPS with 21 homers, it's hard not to like the idea of his bat getting more reps. What both Molitor and the front office will need to evaluate is whether or not the negative cost in the field is outweighed by the boost his bat brings.

 

If not for Escobar, then Minnesota currently has three options. First would be secondary utility man, Ehire Adrianza. Profiled as relatively opposite to Escobar, Adrianza is slick with the glove and leaves something to be desired at the dish. Logging just over 200 innings at short for Minnesota last year, Adrianza was worth 1 DRS. His .707 OPS was a career best, and a massive jump from the .598 OPS he'd compiled across his first 145 career games. Having been used out of position some since joining Minnesota, Adrianza looked disinterested or lost at times while playing left field or even third base. Defensively, shortstop is his home, but his bat must prove worthy of consistent starts.

 

Brought in as Miguel Sano insurance, veteran Erick Aybar is now all but guaranteed a 40-man roster spot with Minnesota. Barring a Sano suspension or injury to start the year, Aybar likely would've been looking for a new team. At 34 years old, Aybar is hardly a spring chicken, and he cuts the duo above somewhere down the middle. A .685 career OPS is reflective of a guy that's basically all average, with little boost from on-base or slugging skills.

 

Unfortunately for him, 2015 is the last time his average was at .270 or above, and would need to be a relative baseline for acceptable production. With the glove, he's played at least 790 innings at short every season since 2009, but he's been no better than -3 DRS since 2012. Not the abomination Escobar is, but calling him slick with the glove would be a stretch as well.

 

Rounding out the options for the Twins is a name that's not currently present. Nick Gordon isn't ready to fill in at the big league level on an every day basis yet (and there's valid concerns about him at SS anyway), and both Royce Lewis and Wander Javier are too far away. The "not currently present" designation would also need to apply to a player outside of the organization. Veteran J.J. Hardy is currently a free agent still (though he's arguably a worse option than any of the internal trio), and the trade market has any number of fits. For Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to explore that path however, it'd likely be a stopgap player with upside than some sort of drastic move that changes future projections.

 

At the end of the day, my hope is that the Twins play it safe here. A lot of work has been done to increase the overall ability of the roster this season, and wavering too far on one side or the other could throw off a lineup or defense with an immense amount of talent. Escobar is a risk at a vital position, while Adrianza has all the makings of a rally killer. Start Erick Aybar, know what you've got, and inject both the utility men on a semi-regular basis. Escobar has thrived in that role before, and Adrianza was productive enough a year ago. It's not at all flashy, but if I'm Molitor, Aybar gives you the least opportunity to be exposed.

 

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[Rosterman]

We wait to see what Sano will bring to the season's start. The Twins don't have a lot of depth on the offense side, as well as room on the roster.

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

We wait to see what Sano will bring to the season's start. The Twins don't have a lot of depth on the offense side, as well as room on the roster.

Polanco's absense definitely hurts depth more than I think it does the starting lineup. Having to truly rely on Aybar, Ehire, or Escobar is suboptimal.

 

I remain of the belief that Sano doesn't miss much time however.

[wsnydes]

I think the absence of Polanco hurts the offense more as a table setter. I think that aspect is harder to replace on the roster right now. Depth is certainly an issue, but getting on base for the big guys isn't always a strong suit of this lineup.

[beckmt]

I am of the opinion to let Gordon fly with the opportunity.  He may or may not fail, but I consider him the best option and the least downside of the other options.  This may well be the best line if Sano is suspended a short while at the beginning of the season and Escobar has to play third.  Do not keep Aybar, we do not need 2 rally killers in the lineup.

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

I think the absence of Polanco hurts the offense more as a table setter. I think that aspect is harder to replace on the roster right now. Depth is certainly an issue, but getting on base for the big guys isn't always a strong suit of this lineup.

Polanco had a .313 OBP in 2017 and was likely going to bat in the middle half of the lineup. More of a contact run producer than table setter.

[ashbury]

I am of the opinion to let Gordon fly with the opportunity. 

Haven't seen evidence to indicate he's ready.

[jud6312]

 

Haven't seen evidence to indicate he's ready.

But could his offense/defense combo really be that much worse than what you're going to get from a cooked Aybar?

[ashbury]

I'm not convinced Gordon's offense would exceed Aybar's yet, and his defense is likely worse.

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

But could his offense/defense combo really be that much worse than what you're going to get from a cooked Aybar?

Aybar at 34 isn't really "cooked" as he's never had much of a ceiling. With a strong prospect like Gordon, you don't just turn to them because they might be better than the alternative, there should be a long game there.

[twinsguy14]

I think we can I'll afford to weaken our defense up the middle on an everyday basis. Adrianza should be out there. I think we should try one more time to pry Archer away from the Ray's so we can have a extra game a week we're you need less runs, lessens the Santana blow less as it lingers and be a good speed and better come all star break. Also, forget Aybar and go grab a rh bat with occastional pop to come off bench now and then against tougher lefties. Don't need three utility guys right now.

[twinsguy14]

One or two half games a week besides late innings pinch hitting won't weaken our defense that much.

[Physics Guy]

Trade for Machado right now and put him at SS.

[Danchat]

I think the "boring" approach is the best way to go in this scenario. Rotate Escobar and Adrianza at SS and try not to put Aybar's name in the lineup too often. If Gordon is heating things up in the minors come May, I would be tempted to call him up, but he's got a lot to prove. He's not ready quite yet and I think it'd be a bad idea to rush him. On the other hand, I'd love to have a Rosario scenario where Gordon gets called up when it's clear he's not ready but he thrives in the majors and never looks back, but I don't think we should count on that.

[jimbo92107]

I'd bring up Gordon in a heartbeat, then send him back down if he crumbles. Is Gordon even healthy today? I heard he had a bad hand.

[TheLeviathan]

Hard to put a positive spin on Erick Aybar being made into a necessary bench piece.

 

This just stinks.

[slash129]

You've got to be kidding me. Aybar? How is Adrianza any more of a rally killer than washed-up Erik F Aybar?

 

Bat Adrianza 9th and take the lights out D up the middle. Keep Escobar as the super-sub.

[wabene]

This is definitely a bummer but look at it this way, the first half last year Polanco was abominable at the plate and below average in the field. I think a combo of Adrianza/Eddy can exceed that as we bide our time

[Mike Sixel]

Aybar at 34 isn't really "cooked" as he's never had much of a ceiling. With a strong prospect like Gordon, you don't just turn to them because they might be better than the alternative, there should be a long game there.

How bad would he have to be to be cooked? He was bad. Not good. He's not even a good backup, let alone starter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

But could his offense/defense combo really be that much worse than what you're going to get from a cooked Aybar?

It’s not about Gordon vs Aybar, it’s about what is best for Gordon.

[darin617]

 

I'd bring up Gordon in a heartbeat, then send him back down if he crumbles. Is Gordon even healthy today? I heard he had a bad hand.

 

Even if Gordon is ready, keep him down long enough to earn an extra year of team control.

 

I would also not even think about starting Gordon right now. He has not earned it & the chance of ruining him is not worth the risk. Let him earn the promotion to AAA first.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Even if Gordon is ready, keep him down long enough to earn an extra year of team control.

 

I would also not even think about starting Gordon right now. He has not earned it & the chance of ruining him is not worth the risk. Let him earn the promotion to AAA first.

 

Disagree. The team has plenty of money to pay him....this team control thing is something we've all fallen for. Team control is code for "keep paying him less than he's worth." 

 

That said, he's not ready, and I'm one of his biggest supporters here...

[Oxtung]

 

It’s not about Gordon vs Aybar, it’s about what is best for Gordon.

No, it's about what is best for the Twins both in the short term and long. I think there is a valid argument that Gordon at SS for the Twins is what's best. Especially if Sano is suspended at some point.

[Oxtung]

 

Disagree. The team has plenty of money to pay him....this team control thing is something we've all fallen for. Team control is code for "keep paying him less than he's worth." 

 

That said, he's not ready, and I'm one of his biggest supporters here...

In addition when Polanco comes back they'd send Gordon down and the Twins would still get the 7th year of control.

[twinstalker]

 

Haven't seen evidence to indicate he's ready.

 

Or really that he'll ever be any good whatsoever.  My bet is that the best value he could be to the Twins is in trade.  But that's got to happen soon.

[beckmt]

 

Haven't seen evidence to indicate he's ready.

That may be, but depending on what you think of Gordon, he may only be a two or three year stopgap (not saying he won't be a productive major league player). We need to see what he can do, and will not be much worse off if he is not ready.  You are only talking probably at most 15 - 20 games here.  I am willing to take that risk.

Only downside would be if you already know Sano is getting a 30 game suspension.  That changes the outlook.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This is definitely a bummer but look at it this way, the first half last year Polanco was abominable at the plate and below average in the field. I think a combo of Adrianza/Eddy can exceed that as we bide our time

he wasn’t that bad...

Ok, maybe he was

[Platoon]

There are two likely scenarios. And seemingly clear cut. EE bat likely will not cover his glove at SS for any length of time. And Andrianza's glove will not cover his bat for long either. It boils down to the decision of offense over defense at a defensive position. A Sano suspension is a moot point in the argument. If he is suspended, they both play. The Twins offense should be able to cover up for a defensive SS. I know the offensive numbers were inflated in the soft schedule at the end of last year, but the core players are a year older, and it should improve for simply that reason. I would go with Andrianza, but that's just me.

Edited March 19, 2018 by Platoon

[laloesch]

Is JJ Hardy still a free agent?

[rdehring]

The Adrianza I see on the field is not as bad at the plate as you seem to suggest.  Give him the job with Escobar filing in a couple times a week...unless he is starting at third.