Where is Revere Most Valuable?

[oprahchapelle]

Tyner didn't have revere's smile

[alarp33]

I didn't really compare them directly, I said they fit under the same profile. Both are contact hitters who won't walk a ton and derive their value from hitting for average and stealing bases. I pointed out that Ichiro is an extreme example, as he's basically the best-case scenario for that prototype. The takeaway should be that it's a lot easier to post a high batting average when you're striking out less than 10 percent of the time. Gomez hasn't even hit .260 in the bigs and probably won't because he whiffs so much.

Please, lets just stop here. Ichiro Suzuki might be the greatest pure contact hitter of many of our lifetimes. Ben Revere owns a .600 career OPS. Revere may very well turn out to be a fine contact hitter, but lets not use his name in the same sentence as Ichiro.

 

I heard Blackburn is working on a cutter, would it be safe to say if things go well he will be Roy Halladay?

[Nick Nelson]

Please, lets just stop here. Ichiro Suzuki might be the greatest pure contact hitter of many of our lifetimes. Ben Revere owns a .600 career OPS. Revere may very well turn out to be a fine contact hitter, but lets not use his name in the same sentence as Ichiro.

Again, I didn't compare them. I pointed to Ichiro as an example of a player who succeeds while hitting the ball on the ground the majority of the time. No need to sensationalize or fall back on the tired "don't use their name in the same sentence!" routine. Revere won't turn into Ichiro, but one trait that has fed into Ichiro's huge hit totals -- being a lefty hitter who puts it in play and gets out of the box and down the line quickly -- is a trait that Revere shares. You can follow a great player's blueprint without aspiring to that level of greatness.

 

I figured I'd play along. If people are going to use Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett's early stats to project why they think Ben Revere should not be dismissed there are likely 25 other examples of closer comps to project why Ben Revere will not become Torii Hunter or Kirby Puckett.

I don't think the point of those references was to prove that Revere is destined to become a star; rather it was to point out that many under-25 rookies struggle in their initial acclimation to the majors and that it's too early to dismiss Revere based on one season since he's still years away from his physical prime. Obviously he could fizzle out or turn into Jason Tyner. I doubt anyone has a hard time envisioning that.

[powrwrap]

I don't think the point of those references was to prove that Revere is destined to become a star; rather it was to point out that many under-25 rookies struggle in their initial acclimation to the majors and that it's too early to dismiss Revere based on one season since he's still years away from his physical prime.

Fair enough, but there are far, far, more under-25 rookies that never amount to anything in the big leagues. Turning into Torii Hunter, Ichiro, Kirby Puckett is the rare exception, and should not be an expectation. If Revere makes it in the majors he's going to be Juan Pierre Lite or Johnny Damon with (at best) a handful of HRs a season. That would be a satisfactory outcome for this Twins' fan, but I don't see it happening.

[whydidnt]

I think at this point it's pretty easy to say the current skills are not the skills that we see turn in to star players in MLB. He does appear to be fairly smart, seems like he works hard, has a decent track record in the minors, and has amazing speed. He has a chance to be decent regular for a few years. The issue is can a MLB team afford to have 2 singles hitters starting in their OF, and will his arm play in CF? If/When Hicks or Benson is major league ready, it's pretty easy to see one of them as a starter and Revere moving into the 4th OF - late inning replacement role. Benson really doesn't seem that far off and offers a lot more offensive potential. Hicks is certainly a question mark at this point, but I'm hoping that last year opened his eyes, and he brings a more aggressive approach this year.

[tharasix]

As young as Revere is, he shouldn't be buried on the bench. If he's not going to start in the majors, start him in Rochester. Just suck it up and run out Span, Willingham, Plouffe, and Doumit.

 

Or! Put Span in right-center and Revere in left-center and run five infielders! Brilliant!

[oprahchapelle]

Johnny Damon? He has an outside chance at the hall of fame. I don't think Revere will come close to that

[powrwrap]

Johnny Damon? He has an outside chance at the hall of fame. I don't think Revere will come close to that

Damon has no chance at the HOF. If Revere bats .280 with and OPS of .750 it would be a great outcome for him.

[jlovren]

Damon has no chance at the HOF. If Revere bats .280 with and OPS of .750 it would be a great outcome for him.

Getting those numbers batting ninth would be huge.

[John Bonnes]

To go back to the original idea I gotta say, it might the Revere is fractionally more valuable in center field, but I think it's really fractional. And given that his arm is so weak, any advantage is almost completely lost. It sure seems like a wash to me. I wouldn't have a lot of hope thta Revere's arm is going to get better over this offseason or any offseason - this isn't a new thing. He's had years to make his arm stronger, it's always been a knock, and I've heard it's related to an old football injury. It is what it is. Left field suits him well.

 

I'll also say this about moving Span: anyone who thinks that is going to go seamlessly is seeing something a lot different than I. Span is a sensitive, prideful guy. His reaction to the possible trade rumors last year was pretty telling, including leaving the team out of nowhere to recover. To me, the risk of that affecting him is certainly not worth the fractional benefit (if any) of swapping Revere and Span.

 

Finally, I gotta think that if Revere is healthy and has his head on straight (which I've heard various takes on) he'll at the very least be the strong side of the platoon in left field. He'll get plenty of time.

[John Bonnes]

Finally, as to where Revere is going to end up, I agree he's closer to the Tyner-Pierre path than someone like Puckett or even Ichiro. If he's at the top of that range, he's very valuable. If he's at the bottom of that range, he's a defensively gifted fourth outfielder and helluva pinch runner.

 

I'll go a step further: I think Tyner was undervalued. Sabrmetric guys overreacted to how much overreaction there was about his batting average and steals - and ended up underrating him. Back in November of 2007 I'd had about enough of it and wrote:

Never has a player made so many smart baseball analysts act so dumb. Dogged by his reputation in Tampa Bay, way too many of us missed what Tyner was – a great fourth outfielder, who is probably good enough to hold down the strong side of the platoon in center field.

 

His career line with the Twins vs. RHP? 454 AB, .311 BA, .347 OBP, 13 SB, 3 CS. All for a league minimum price. If you don’t appreciate that, you need to pull your head out of your ass.

[Thrylos]

I'll also say this about moving Span: anyone who thinks that is going to go seamlessly is seeing something a lot different than I. Span is a sensitive, prideful guy. His reaction to the possible trade rumors last year was pretty telling, including leaving the team out of nowhere to recover. To me, the risk of that affecting him is certainly not worth the fractional benefit (if any) of swapping Revere and Span.

 

This is an interesting take (in a good way )

 

So, would you say that Slowey was a pretty sensitive guy too, in the same manner? (And we know how this organization treated him...)

[John Bonnes]

I don't think Slowey is sensitive the way Span is. Prideful, maybe. And there is nothing wrong with prideful.

 

But in Slowey's case the vibe became "I'm right and you all are wrong." Which isn't to say that Slowey was never right and the organization was - I think there were some mistakes on both sides. But it's awfully hard to have a decent working relationship once the lines are drawn like that.

[Shane Wahl]

I would be very happy with a young Juan Pierresque player batting 9th in the lineup. What the hell?

 

That said, I would like to see him as trade bait AS LONG AS Benson and Hicks have a good April-August this year.

[Steve Lein]

John - Agree with everything you say about Revere and Span swapping, and the "prideful" impact. Is the same point I was making to Jack earlier in the thread.

[Guest USAFChief]

Finally, as to where Revere is going to end up, I agree he's closer to the Tyner-Pierre path than someone like Puckett or even Ichiro. If he's at the top of that range, he's very valuable. If he's at the bottom of that range, he's a defensively gifted fourth outfielder and helluva pinch runner. I'll go a step further: I think Tyner was undervalued. Sabrmetric guys overreacted to how much overreaction there was about his batting average and steals - and ended up underrating him. Back in November of 2007 I'd had about enough of it and wrote:

Is it possible it wasn't the "Sabermetric guys" who were overreacting to Tyner...perhaps it was you?Tyner accumulated a grand total of 3 MLB PAs after leaving the Twins. IMO, he wasn't a "great" 4th OFer, ever, and thinking he could form 1/2 of an effective CF platoon was nothing but wishful thinking. it appears major league GMs and managers don't support your view either.

[Shane Wahl]

Are people putting Juan Pierre on the same level as Jason Tyner? That is foolish.

[jlovren]

I think people are saying the high end is Pierre and the low end is Tyner. At least that's what I am hoping they are doing.

[powrwrap]

I think people are saying the high end is Pierre and the low end is Tyner. At least that's what I am hoping they are doing.

To clarify, I'm saying that Jason Tyner is the likely outcome for Revere with Juan Pierre Lite being the upside. Juan Pierre Lite is somewhere between Tyner and the real Juan Pierre. Another upside would be Johnny Damon with no power.

 

As has been mentioned that would be a decent #9 hitter, but I think folks need to stop thinking of Revere as a lead off hitter. Still, with Revere at #9, the Twins lineup for 2012 would have a consecutive trio of Revere, Span, and Carroll, not a good thing.

[The Greatest Poster Alive]

I think Revere has already completely exceeded Tyner. Tyner has no notable speed, Revere is a basepath threat. I'm not a big revere guy, and I think his ideal role is similar to Pierre's with the dodgers. I hope the other outfielders on this roster are healthy enough/productive enough to relegate Revere to be a bench guy who gets a lot of playing time keeping all 3 outfielders fresh.

 

I think this is the year Benson breaks in to the majors. I anticipate Benson playing his way onto the big league club by July.

[spideyo]

Just out of curiosity, what does Joe Benson have over Ben Revere (other than more hair)?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Just out of curiosity, what does Joe Benson have over Ben Revere (other than more hair)?

A much higher ceiling.

[Fanatic Jack]

There is no doubt about it Benson has all the tools to be a superstar player. However, I'm just not confident we will ever see the total package. He is already 25 and will start the season again in Rochester. He is definately much too talented to give up on yet.

[The Greatest Poster Alive]

Just out of curiosity, what does Joe Benson have over Ben Revere (other than more hair)?

While it's still all potential right now... Benson has more power in his stroke, and has been consistently 100 points higher in OPS than Revere in the minors. Revere is a singles hitter, while Benson is a gap hitter, who can produce doubles.

 

Revere is a nice piece to have... but if he's starting, things are not going well for this team.

[spideyo]

The last three years his OPS was higher, but he also played less than Revere, some of those plate appearances were at a lower level, and I don't think you can compare last year at all, when most of Revere's season was in the Majors and most of Benson's were in AA. For 2007 and 2008, when Benson was in Beliot and Revere was in Beloit and Gulf Coast, Revere actually had much higher numbers. Benson also has one more year as a pro player than Revere.

 

And while Benson has better SLG and OPB, his average has consistently been lower than Revere's, and his strikeouts have been MUCH higher. In 2010, Benson has 136 K's, and Revere had 137 his entire 5 years in the minors.

 

Granted, I haven't actually seen Benson play much, but based on stats alone, they seem fairly comparable. Benson is gonna get more extra base hits, but he's also gonna strike out more. Revere is gonna end up on 1st base most of the time, but he'll steal his way around the diamond a lot more. I guess it really depends on what you see as more valuable.

 

Personally, I'd love to see them both eventually in the starting lineup. Get Revere to take a few more walks, get Benson to strike out a bit less, and they'd compliment each other well. Revere gets to 1st, steals his way to 2nd, Benson doubles him in. We could see that A LOT.

[John Bonnes]

And while Benson has better SLG and OPB, his average has consistently been lower than Revere's, and his strikeouts have been MUCH higher. In 2010, Benson has 136 K's, and Revere had 137 his entire 5 years in the minors.

I find the enthusiasm around Benson to be a tad high - not as high as the enthusiasm around Valencia two offseasons ago, but a little like that. His Ks scare me, and last year was really his first statistical sign of life.

[Seth Stohs]

I find the enthusiasm around Benson to be a tad high - not as high as the enthusiasm around Valencia two offseasons ago, but a little like that. His Ks scare me, and last year was really his first statistical sign of life.

I don't know, John, those 27 HR he hit in 2010 and being named the Twins minor league hitter of the year tell me that he's shown it a couple of years in a row. The strikeouts are a concern. His aggressiveness can be positive or negative, so my opinion of Benson's future is how long it takes for the game to slow down for him. He's already the top defensive outfielder in the system.

[jlovren]

Still, with Revere at #9, the Twins lineup for 2012 would have a consecutive trio of Revere, Span, and Carroll, not a good thing.

What would be the substitue?

[Shane Wahl]

There is no doubt about it Benson has all the tools to be a superstar player. However, I'm just not confident we will ever see the total package. He is already 25 and will start the season again in Rochester. He is definately much too talented to give up on yet.

Are you talking about Benson? He just turned 24 a few days ago and hasn't even been to Rochester yet (even though he should have been promoted last year).

[spideyo]

Yeah, Benson is only a couple months older than Revere, he just started in the minors a year before he did. I still don't get though, why he's too talented to give up on, and people have already given up on Revere.

 

If nothing else, Revere is a guy who BROKE HIS FACE and was back playing in a manner of weeks. Bloggers have constantly been bitching that we need more guys who won't take half the season off because of a stubbed toe. Revere throws his whole body into the game, and fights like hell to get back when he's hurt. Plus, as a fan, it's gonna be a helluva lot more exciting to see Revere diving for balls and stealing bases than seeing Plouffe try to get more extra base hits than he gives up in the field.