March 12, 20188 yr There's no arguing most of the benefits associated with a short term deal, but I'm not sure rotation through FAs is one of them. FA pitchers aren't signing short term deals because it's in their best interest. Those guys are signing 1 and 2 year deals because their hand is forced by recent issues regarding health and/or ineffectiveness. Yes, you're avoiding the backend of long term deals, but you're also taking on a significantly higher performance risk in the short term, and then you're compounding that risk by rotating arms through every year or two. If you're reshuffling the deck that often what are the chances you continue to hit on a high enough percentage of arms to fill out half a rotation? If we were talking about one or two spots near the bottom of that 8-10 man range I would be totally on board, but right now the plan is to find at least 2, maybe 3 arms, (depending on how Gonsalves and Romero turn out) to slot into that top 5 range. IMO there's plenty of downside to that strategy.Maybe in two years the Twins need to give someone 4-5 years to get a decent player. That was not the case this offseason. But that’s two years you don’t have to worry about a player’s long term health or potential decline. In essence, a two year deal now allows you to postpone the typically bad portion of a contract. Worry about the four year contract when that’s your only option to get a good player and be happy that day isn’t today.
March 12, 20188 yr yeah, I am not sure how you look at what I wrote (and you quoted)about Gibson and then write what you did.What logic did you see in that quote that makes you compare what I said about Gibson to May. His bWAR? Couldn't have been bWAR (cause I don't use bWAR to back up opinions). Nor was it fWAR. I didn't mention WAR at all.I don't know how anyone compares the bWAR or fWAR between these two pitchers. Gibson has been given tons of starts, May was given half a season worth of starts then relegated to the bullpen and then been injured.I was just asking if you wanted to trade Gibson a couple of years ago and he was a good pitcher then (at least by WAR), is it time to trade May since he is 28 and hasn't really done anything in the Majors?
March 12, 20188 yr Maybe in two years the Twins need to give someone 4-5 years to get a decent player. That was not the case this offseason.But that’s two years you don’t have to worry about a player’s long term health or potential decline. In essence, a two year deal now allows you to postpone the typically bad portion of a contract.Worry about the four year contract when that’s your only option to get a good player and be happy that day isn’t today.Sure, if these short deals are a stop gap to a more secure rotation I'm on board. My contention was that constant churning to fill out 2 or 3 spots might be even less reliable than a long term deal.
March 12, 20188 yr Sure, if these short deals are a stop gap to a more secure rotation I'm on board. My contention was that constant churning to fill out 2 or 3 spots might be even less reliable than a long term deal. In that I agree, my argument is that if you can get a decent player in free agency, the shortest term contract possible is almost always the best route to take. But some offseasons, that option simply isn't available so you go ahead and offer longer term deals.
March 12, 20188 yr 40% of our starting rotation was drafted and developed by our favorite team. I look for Gonsalves by the All-Star break and Romero in September. 50% of your 40% is Kyle Gibson, and I wouldn't count him as a long-term drafting & developing success yet. And Gonsalves and Romero are still "pie-in-the-sky" as you like to say. (Romero in particular is coming off a career-high 125 IP, I'd be mildly surprised if he's starting anywhere in September.)
March 12, 20188 yr I agree that the Twins aren't doing themselves any favors by spending cash on these 1-2 year deals for pitchers. They're not likely to make it to the WS and they don't have anyone of substance in the minors 1-2 years out.
March 12, 20188 yr I agree that the Twins aren't doing themselves any favors by spending cash on these 1-2 year deals for pitchers. They're not likely to make it to the WS and they don't have anyone of substance in the minors 1-2 years out. Thorpe, Romero, Gonsalves.....one of those will be good, one ok, and the other is a wild card. Those are the odds. And, they are 1-2 years away, imo. that doesn't even count all the other wild cards they have, one of which might work out. I like these moves, I just don't think the pitching is as fixed in the near term as some seem to, that's all. And, none of those three are recent adds to the system. I'm still waiting for that add that I believe in as much as one of those three. Admittedly, I could be underselling some options.....I'm just a random dude on the 'net.
March 12, 20188 yr I agree that the Twins aren't doing themselves any favors by spending cash on these 1-2 year deals for pitchers. They're not likely to make it to the WS and they don't have anyone of substance in the minors 1-2 years out. Yes but if that's all you can get then that's all you can get. We all knew the Darvish pursuit was a pie in the sky dream. Arrietta wanted crazy money and nothing to do with Minnesota and trading with Tampa for Archer would have GUTTED the farm. What does that leave you? Lynn, Odorizzi......I look at the signing of Pineda & Lynn along with the trade for Odorizzi (whose 2 years from free agency) as a stop gap measure. By seasons end the front office should have a much better clue as to whose major league ready from Littell, Romero, Gonsalves, Thorpe, etc.
March 12, 20188 yr Thorpe, Romero, Gonsalves.....one of those will be good, one ok, and the other is a wild card. Those are the odds. And, they are 1-2 years away, imo. that doesn't even count all the other wild cards they have, one of which might work out. I like these moves, I just don't think the pitching is as fixed in the near term as some seem to, that's all. And, none of those three are recent adds to the system. I'm still waiting for that add that I believe in as much as one of those three. Admittedly, I could be underselling some options.....I'm just a random dude on the 'net.Totally respect your viewpoint Mike but will choose to disagree. Gonsalves and Romero should be getting their feet wet this season and at least one will probably be a major contributor next season. Possibly both. Berrios should continue to grow, and with options, I believe Odorizzi is ours for 2 more years after this one. Is all of this a bit optimistic? Perhaps. But as you stated yourself, of just the 3 guys you mentioned, 1 should be good and 1 OK. Most important thing is the depth and number of potions available the next couple of years.
March 12, 20188 yr As to Arietta, his numbers, when closely examined, still rate solid and he could bounce back. I would have been OK on a 2 or 3 year deal for him. But $25M per just seems crazy to me! Glad that wasn't our move!
March 12, 20188 yr Totally respect your viewpoint Mike but will choose to disagree. Gonsalves and Romero should be getting their feet wet this season and at least one will probably be a major contributor next season. Possibly both. Berrios should continue to grow, and with options, I believe Odorizzi is ours for 2 more years after this one. Is all of this a bit optimistic? Perhaps. But as you stated yourself, of just the 3 guys you mentioned, 1 should be good and 1 OK. Most important thing is the depth and number of potions available the next couple of years.Odo only has 1 season left of team control beyond this season.
March 13, 20188 yr Odo only has 1 season left of team control beyond this season.And I'm probably wrong. Thought I read somewhere we had a 3rd year of arbitration or something. Maybe it was a QO. Sorry if mistaken.
March 13, 20188 yr Maybe in two years the Twins need to give someone 4-5 years to get a decent player. That was not the case this offseason.But that’s two years you don’t have to worry about a player’s long term health or potential decline. In essence, a two year deal now allows you to postpone the typically bad portion of a contract.Worry about the four year contract when that’s your only option to get a good player and be happy that day isn’t today.Look at it from the other direction. Teams rarely sign four year deals with free agents because they want to lock them in. Instead, teams sign four year or longer deals because the players insist upon it. Those long deals are usually regretted at the end.
March 13, 20188 yr Look at it from the other direction. Teams rarely sign four year deals with free agents because they want to lock them in. Instead, teams sign four year or longer deals because the players insist upon it. Those long deals are usually regretted at the end.Exactly. Teams don't push for longer term contracts, players do.
March 13, 20188 yr given that they have needs in SP now, I don't mind them getting a few on shorter term deals. They have enough guys with some ML success (May, Mejia) and plenty of promise (Littell, Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe, Slegers, Enns) that they should be able to piece through a rotation in 2019 and 2020. The problem is that they will need to do some trial and error. That will happen during the inevitable injury.. these guys are stop gaps... and good ones at that.
March 13, 20188 yr given that they have needs in SP now, I don't mind them getting a few on shorter term deals. They have enough guys with some ML success (May, Mejia) and plenty of promise (Littell, Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe, Slegers, Enns) that they should be able to piece through a rotation in 2019 and 2020. The problem is that they will need to do some trial and error. That will happen during the inevitable injury.. these guys are stop gaps... and good ones at that.Every pitcher on the roster could bust, but that is unlikely. Just like thinking the starting staff(s) of years past would pitch better than their track record would indicate was unlikely. Double headers, injuries, ineffectiveness, etc. will allow those almost-ready starters in the high minors to get a taste. It’s a great position to be in that the fill-ins have potential to be a part of the future. Think of the fill-in starters of years past. The pitching staff as a whole has its flaws, but the floor is about as high as it’s been since the days of Johan.
March 13, 20188 yr I don't know anything, but here is what is likely: ESan is retired in 2 years, or not that good.Gibson is gone.About 1/3 of the upper minors' starters turn out to be really goodOdorizzi is goneOur Yankee pitcher is gone That leaves some holes in the rotation, since a team needs 8-10 starters every year, not five. It's been a very good off season. Other than signing Darvish, it is hard to see how it could be better. But, for years people have told me you can't successfully fill multiple holes in free agency. Now that I'm agreeing, I'm somehow wrong, or hating, or something. I've been 100% clear. It's been a good off season. I don't think I have said that you are hating. I think you are making an issue out of something that is an inevitable issue for all teams. Almost every team needs to add a starter during two consecutive offseasons. It is far better to have short term contracts for good but not great players and aside from Darvish those were the players available. And the Twins are very much in a position to add a near elite starter if one becomes available because they don't have long term commitments in the rotation and elsewhere. These are good things.
March 13, 20188 yr Lance Lynn: Greatest Twins pitcher of this decade, or greatest all time?Greatest pitcher of all time? Or greatest human being of all time? (Yes.)
March 14, 20188 yr I said it before and I will say it again ... I think Lynn was probably the best free agent pitcher this year. Sorry, Darvish. If I were in charge, Lynn would have been my #1 target. It's a minor sticking point that he is only signed for one year because if my opinion is proven true, the Twins won't be able to afford him next year. Lynn will go off and be Ervin Santana II elsewhere. But hey, we had Kenny Rogers for one good year too, right?
March 14, 20188 yr I said it before and I will say it again ... I think Lynn was probably the best free agent pitcher this year. Sorry, Darvish. If I were in charge, Lynn would have been my #1 target. It's a minor sticking point that he is only signed for one year because if my opinion is proven true, the Twins won't be able to afford him next year. Lynn will go off and be Ervin Santana II elsewhere. But hey, we had Kenny Rogers for one good year too, right?The Twins have upwards of $80 million coming off the books after this season. They can afford Lynn, if he's good enough that they want him back.
March 15, 20188 yr Greatest pitcher of all time? Or greatest human being of all time? (Yes.) A preemptive Chief-ing of one's own post is poor form, it takes the fun away from the next guy.
March 15, 20188 yr A preemptive Chief-ing of one's own post is poor form, it takes the fun away from the next guy.Concur.
March 15, 20188 yr A preemptive Chief-ing of one's own post is poor form, it takes the fun away from the next guy.Zero-sum game, then? I win!
Create an account or sign in to comment