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Article: Twins Considered Favorites To Sign Lance Lynn


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The calendar has turned over to March, yet here we are, still waiting to see where Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb end up playing in 2018. What are their odds of signing with the Minnesota Twins? Well, here are the current betting odds on where those three will sign, as well as the odds on who will win the World Series and individual awards.The folks at My Top Sportsbooks have tabbed the Twins as the favorites to sign Lynn. They put 5/4 odds on a Lynn/Twins union. For Cobb, the Twins are set at 6/1 odds, which trails the Orioles (2/1), Rangers (7/2) and Brewers (4/1). Minnesota was not listed among the most likely landing spots for Arrieta.

 

Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press recently reported that a rival scout said the Twins were “still looking for another starter.” In that same article, he noted that the Twins offered Lynn a two-year, $20 million deal, which was quickly declined.

 

Lynn rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals, worth $17.4 million, so it’s not surprising he turned down the lowball offer from the Twins. Prior to the start of the offseason, MLB Trade Rumors projected that he’d sign for four years, $56 million. A lot has changed since then.

 

With Ervin Santana out, the Opening Day rotation figures to be Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and some combination of Adalberto Mejia, Phil Hughes, Anibal Sanchez and Aaron Slegers. Paul Molitor is considering starting the year with a four-man rotation, but that’s not set in stone. While there are no shortage of options to fill out the rotation, that’s not a projected staff that will inspire World Series aspirations. Speaking of which …

 

World Series Odds

 

The Twins still only have 40/1 odds at winning the World Series, per the same article mentioned above. There are 15 other teams listed ahead of the Twins, with the Cubs, Astros, Dodgers and Yankees all tied for the best odds of winning the Fall Classic at 7/1. On the other end of the spectrum, there are seven teams who have 200/1 odds or worse, three of whom are in the AL Central (I think you can guess which ones).

 

The Twins projected Opening Day rotation doesn’t stack up against the other top teams in the league, but here are a few things to consider …

 

-They could still sign Lynn or one of the other free agents.

-You never know, Berrios could ascend into true ace status this season.

-The Twins could make a massive trade at the deadline to add a significant piece. They certainly have the prospects to do so.

-There are reinforcements coming. Santana is expected back maybe as early as late April, and Trevor May could return in June. One of the guys on the farm like Stephen Gonsalves or Fernando Romero could be ready to make an impact, as well.

 

If the Royals, White Sox and Tigers are going to be as bad as everyone projects, the Twins have a huge advantage in the wild card race. Cleveland is still clearly the team to beat in the AL Central, but a lot can change over the course of a season.

 

To me, the Twins are an interesting World Series dark horse pick. Not because of who they are today, but because of who they could become by the time October rolls around.

 

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Two years is probably the most I'd go on him too - maybe an option for a third year based on 170 innings in 2019? Someone needs to offer more than the lowball $10M AAV, but he is unfortunately one of the casualties of the sudden (seeming) analytic turn of events that has dried up the demand in front offices for long contracts to pitchers in their 30s.

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Not a fan of Lynn, either, but when you have only three starters you’re sure about at the beginning of the season and one of them has Kyle Gibson’s track record, you may make short term decisions you know you might regret later.

 

I know I'm in the minority, but I trust Lance Lynn moving to the AL with a really mediocre fastball array and no true off speed pitch less that I trust Gibson.

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Things that work against Lynn:

 

  • He is on the declining side of his career
  • He has a pretty non-stellar season (1.4 fWAR, 4.82 FIP) in the NL
  • He made only $7.5 million the previous season and should not expect much of a raise based on his bad performance
  • He has only one decent pitch, the fastball, that he throws 3 ways: 4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter.  If/when  that does not work, he is up the proverbial creek.
  • The Cardinals know him better and they are competing.  If he were an asset, they would had tried to re-sign him.  He comes off a lost season (2016).  They know his medicals.
  • He will cost a high draft pick who can be better than Lynn (think Berrios)
  • 4.25 ERA, 1.517 WHIP against the AL last season
  • Based on his previous performance, and injury history he comes with a ton of rish.  That 2/$20 offer the Twins made, is not a lowball, but it reflects the above.  It is a more than fair offer, since he will be getting a 33% raise after a down year.  That 1.4 fWAR was pretty close to Gibson's 1.1 fWAR last season; Gibson's FIP was an eerily similar 4.85, but in the AL.

He should had taken the money (QO) and run...

Edited by Thrylos
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Things that work against Lynn:

 

 

  • He is on the declining side of his career
  • He has a pretty non-stellar season (1.4 fWAR, 4.82 FIP) in the NL
  • He made only $7.5 million the previous season and should not expect much of a raise based on his bad performance
  • He has only one decent pitch, the fastball, that he throws 3 ways: 4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter.  If/when  that does not work, he is up the proverbial creek.
  • The Cardinals know him better and they are competing.  If he were an asset, they would had tried to re-sign him.  He comes off a lost season (2016).  They know his medicals.
  • He will cost a high draft pick who can be better than Lynn (think Berrios)
  • 4.25 ERA, 1.517 WHIP against the AL last season
  • Based on his previous performance, and injury history he comes with a ton of rish.  That 2/$20 offer the Twins made, is not a lowball, but it reflects the above.  It is a more than fair offer, since he will be getting a 33% raise after a down year.  That 1.4 fWAR was pretty close to Gibson's 1.1 fWAR last season; Gibson's FIP was an eerily similar 4.85, but in the AL.
He should had taken the money (QO) and run...
when you put it that way, I'm not sure I want him at all. Are we even sure he'll be an upgrade over Mejia?
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Things that work against Lynn:

 

  • He is on the declining side of his career
  • He has a pretty non-stellar season (1.4 fWAR, 4.82 FIP) in the NL
  • He made only $7.5 million the previous season and should not expect much of a raise based on his bad performance
  • He has only one decent pitch, the fastball, that he throws 3 ways: 4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter.  If/when  that does not work, he is up the proverbial creek.
  • The Cardinals know him better and they are competing.  If he were an asset, they would had tried to re-sign him.  He comes off a lost season (2016).  They know his medicals.
  • He will cost a high draft pick who can be better than Lynn (think Berrios)
  • 4.25 ERA, 1.517 WHIP against the AL last season
  • Based on his previous performance, and injury history he comes with a ton of rish.  That 2/$20 offer the Twins made, is not a lowball, but it reflects the above.  It is a more than fair offer, since he will be getting a 33% raise after a down year.  That 1.4 fWAR was pretty close to Gibson's 1.1 fWAR last season; Gibson's FIP was an eerily similar 4.85, but in the AL.

He should had taken the money (QO) and run...

I thought Lynn was one who would cost a draft pick. Thank you for confirming that.

 

I had no idea Lynn's numbers were so pedestrian.

 

Seems like the Twins should just wait until they can debut some more pitching from the minors.

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Well, if you have followed my posts you know my response - don't do it.  Why is a player from another team always better than what you already have?  Lynn would have been great a few years ago - now he is not a true upgrade and we continue to pile up contracts that present more obstacles than are needed for the young arms.  Hughes is back next year, Pineda is supposed to be ready next year.  Add Lynn and there are three big contracts behind Berrios.  

 

I liked adding one arm this year from outside and one from inside.  I want to see Berrios and Santana on the top and either Gibson or Mejia filling out the rotation.   Thrylos covered the details and makes a great argument why we should have run the other way when Lynn turned down their offer.  

 

If they really want him - one year is all I would offer and tell him to pitch so well that he can clean up as a FA next year. 

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The Cards gave him a qualifying offer so if they thought he was actually bad then they should have been nervous he would accept it.    1.4 WAR?    That's not so bad is it?   Wouldn't a league average pitcher be an asset right now?    I think I would feel a little better having him so this is a rare thing for me to be ok with a signing the rest of the board doesn't want.    My preference has always been Cobb though.

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Maybe the 2/20 was prompted on their end.  Asked the Twins if they'd be willing to make an offer.  Being less than overly excited about Lynn the response was we'd be in at 2/20, which was then a non-starter from Lynn's side.   I can't imagine the Twins were aggressively pursuing him and then only come in with a 2/20 offer.

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I know I'm in the minority, but I trust Lance Lynn moving to the AL with a really mediocre fastball array and no true off speed pitch less that I trust Gibson.

That may be, but at least one of Mejia, Slegers, Hughes and Longibal Sanchez need to be at least adequate, or a fourth starter is needed.

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Maybe the 2/20 was prompted on their end.  Asked the Twins if they'd be willing to make an offer.  Being less than overly excited about Lynn the response was we'd be in at 2/20, which was then a non-starter from Lynn's side.   I can't imagine the Twins were aggressively pursuing him and then only come in with a 2/20 offer.

In another few days, the available free agents might not be signed in time to be ready before Santana. Of course, if Santana has any problems. . .

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Maybe the 2/20 was prompted on their end.  Asked the Twins if they'd be willing to make an offer.  Being less than overly excited about Lynn the response was we'd be in at 2/20, which was then a non-starter from Lynn's side.   I can't imagine the Twins were aggressively pursuing him and then only come in with a 2/20 offer.

 

I can't imagine they spit-balled something like that.  There is no upside to an offer that obviously doomed to fail.

 

I kind of hope the reporting is wrong.  I like a lot of what they've done this offseason, but this will make the second bizarre contract offer to a pitcher.  Starting to become too much of a trend for my liking.

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I can't imagine they spit-balled something like that.  There is no upside to an offer that obviously doomed to fail.

 

I kind of hope the reporting is wrong.  I like a lot of what they've done this offseason, but this will make the second bizarre contract offer to a pitcher.  Starting to become too much of a trend for my liking.

 

I doubt it was spitballing either.   I'm sure the front office has done their valuations on these guys and that is where they were/are with Lynn.

Edited by AWOLNATION_11
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If 2017 Lance Lynn is who he is now, he'd be an upgrade, but there's not a lot to get excited about. But, that was his first season back from Tommy John. Prior to that, he had pitched to a 3.36 FIP over almost 800 innings. That puts him 21st among the 144 pitchers who logged at least 500 innings from 2011-16.

 

So how much you value Lynn is going to hinge on how much you believe he can bounce back.

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To me 2/20 or 1/12 would be a no brainer. If he is good, well that is great. If he is good and our young guys are good, that is also great. If he is bad, the Twins are out millions but what is 10-20 million to them. I don't see them saying crap now we can't sign anybody next year and if they do, well we weren't real players for the world series ever.

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In another few days, the available free agents might not be signed in time to be ready before Santana. Of course, if Santana has any problems. . .

Supposedly, there was going to be a ST set up by the MLBPA to help FA get in to game shape for the season. If Lynn didn’t do this, that doesn’t say much for his work ethic IMO.

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