Article: Free Agents Who Signed For Less Than The Qualifying Offer They Rejected

[Andrew Thares]

It's starting to sound like for the Twins to land one of top free agent pitchers still available, the player would need to accept a deal for less value than the qualifying offers he rejected. Believe it or not, this move is actually not unprecedented. Let’s take a look back at the times that this has happened.The qualifying offer came into existence at the start of the 2012-13 offseason. Its purpose was to grant compensation, in the form of a draft pick, to MLB teams that lost a key player in free agency.

 

Since its inception, 73 players have been extended a qualifying offer and only five have accepted the deal. The primary reason for this being that teams try to avoid extending a player a qualifying offer if they think it will be accepted.

 

Among those players who rejected a qualifying offer this winter are Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. At the onset of the offseason, it seemed like a no-brainer that these players would receive deals that would easily exceed that of the qualifying offer. However, as the season draws near, there is a chance that one of these players may accept a one-year deal for potentially less than the $17.4M that they each turned down, in an opportunity to prove himself again and re-enter the market again next winter.

 

Let's take a look back at the history of players who accepted deals at a lesser value than the qualifying offers they originally rejected.

 

Nelson Cruz – 2013

Offer Rejected: one-year, $14.1M (TEX)

Signed For: one-year, $8M (BAL)

 

Nelson Cruz was a dominant offensive threat for the Texas Rangers in his time there. During his first three seasons in Texas, 2008-10, he collected 9.7 fWAR in just 267 games, a 5.9 fWAR pace per 162 games played. However, this production fell off in his final three years with the team, where he had a mere 3.7 fWAR over 392 games, a 1.5 fWAR pace per 162 games played.

 

Still, Cruz’s reputation preceded him, and caused him to receive a qualifying offer from the Rangers. When he hit free agency, what MLB teams saw was a three year track record of underwhelming success from a one-dimensional player. This gave the Orioles ad opportunity to take a flyer on Cruz. The move could not have panned out better for them, as Cruz hit for a .271/.333/.525 slash line, along with an MLB leading 40 home runs.

 

Stephen Drew – 2013

Offer Rejected: one-year, $14.1M (BOS)

Signed For: one-year, $10M (BOS)

 

Stephen Drew was coming off of a career year in 2013, where he produced as an above average bat along with league-average defense at shortstop. Unlike today, players with those two skills were few and far between just five years ago. Despite this, MLB teams saw right through the aging shortstop, who had a very inconsistent career up to that point. Drew’s offense in 2013 was carried largely on the weight of his .320 BABIP, a full 30 points higher than his career average.

 

Drew didn’t end up signing with a team until May of the following season, where he re-signed with the Red Sox for $4M less than the offer that he rejected from them just six months earlier. It turns out that MLB GMs were right to be skeptical of Stephen Drew, as he has been nothing more than a replacement level player in the four years since.

 

Kendrys Morales – 2013

Offer Rejected: one-year, $14.1M (SEA)

Signed For: one-year, $12M (MIN)

 

The Twins’ signing of Kendrys Morales in June of 2014 was maybe the most unique of all these signings. The reason for this being that Morales didn’t sign with the Twins until June of 2014, after the First Year Player Draft. This meant that even though Morales rejected his qualifying offer, the Twins didn’t have to give up a draft pick to sign him.

 

That was perhaps the only good take away from the Kendrys Morales signing, as he slashed a mere .234/.259/.325 with just one home run over 39 games in a Twins uniform. He was then dealt back to the Mariners before the trade deadline in exchange for Stephen Pryor, a minor league pitcher who has been out of baseball since the Twins released him after the 2015 season.

 

Ian Desmond – 2015

Offer Rejected: one-year, $15.8M (WAS)

Signed For: one-year, $8M (TEX)

 

Ian Desmond’s career got off to a good start with the Washington Nationals. During his time there, Desmond was a shortstop mostly known for his bat, though he still provided manageable defense at short. When Desmond hit free agency, however, he was coming off of a down season offensively (83 wRC+), and there were questions about his ability to stay at short.

 

Desmond wound up moving to the outfield, and as a result his value plummeted. Much like Nelson Cruz, signing a one-year deal paid off well for Desmond, as he had a bounce back season with the Rangers, hitting for a 106 wRC+ on his way to a 3.3 fWAR season.

 

Dexter Fowler – 2015

Offer Rejected: one-year, $15.8M (CHC)

Signed For: one-year, $13M (CHC)

 

The drama of where Dexter Fowler would sign led all the way up to the start of spring training, where it appeared as though he had a deal locked up with Baltimore, before reversing course and re-signing with the Cubs. Fowler is yet another player on this list who benefited greatly from signing a one-year bounce back deal.

 

That 2016 was undoubtedly the best season of Fowler’s career, both offensively and defensively. Not only did he have a career high .367 wOBA, but it was also the only season in his career when his defense wasn’t terrible in center. For a player whose DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) usually sits somewhere between -10 and -20, the +1 number that he posted in 2016 was a welcome surprise for the Cubs.

 

Hisashi Iwakuma – 2015

Offer Rejected: one-year, $15.8M (SEA)

Signed For: one-year, $12M (SEA)

 

Hisashi Iwakuma, the first and only pitcher on this list, re-signed with the Seattle Mariners in December of 2015, just over a month after he rejected a qualifying offer from the team. The deal did include two vesting options, and had the potential to reach as high as $39M with incentives.

 

Iwakuma was able to hit the first vesting option, along with an incentive bonus, so the deal ending up being for two-years and $27.5M. It was still a very team-friendly deal, as the vesting options took most of the risk out of the contract. Only $12M was guaranteed.

 

Howie Kendrick – 2015

Offer Rejected: one-year, $15.8M (LAD)

Signed For: two-years, $20M (LAD)

 

The final player on this list is also the only player who actually signed a deal with more guaranteed money than the qualifying offer that he rejected. The reason I'm including Howie Kendrick on this list is the one-year, $15.8M deal he rejected is a much better offer than the two-year, $20M deal he ultimately accepted.

 

Kendrick ended up getting traded twice during the course of his two-year contract. First from the Dodger to the Phillies, and then from the Phillies to the Nationals. After having an okay year in 2016, Kendrick had a strong performance in 2017, putting up 1.6 fWAR despite only playing 91 games due to injury.

 

As you can see, signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer to a one-year deal is well within the realm of possibilities. This might be an especially attractive idea for pitchers with injury concerns, such as Lynn and Cobb. They may be struggling to get quality long-term offers right now, given question marks around them, but another year of health and production could dramatically change their market if they're willing to accept a one-year offer.

 

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[Brandon]

I think there is enough interest in Lynn or Cobb that they can get close to the qualifying offer for a 1 year contract. Cobb was offered 42 million. I suspect that is one of his larger offers. I can see Cobb getting a 1 year 14-15 million ir 2 year 24-26 million. There are a few things to consider. 1. These pitchers all have draft picks attached so signing a 1 year deal is less favorable for teams to make that offer. But no one really wants to go 3 at their AAV rates either.

 

I think these guys will sign a 1 year with club option or 2 year or 2 year with option. 1year is just too short unless they accept a 6-8 million offer.

 

Another example is our own Ervin Santana who rejected the QO and signed for exactly the QO. Though you are pointing out those who signed for less.

 

I am curious to see how this all plays out and if the Twins will decide to be one of the teams to sign a pitcher.

[Twodogs]

Well they have nothing to lose by offering these guys something, other than relegating Phil Hughes to the bull pen

[beckmt]

I heard they made an offer to Lynn, but it was a buy low offer (from what I saw).  Maybe the Twins could  eventually get it done for 2/$24, but do not see it happening yet.  Twins would have to be convinced that all other options were not working out.

[Twodogs]

I was always a little higher on Lynn than Cobb, however it occurred to me that in a situation like this the guy that gets low balled in free agency could be somewhat bitter about it. So if Lynn takes a deal lower than the qualifying offer he could become a bad seed in the clubhouse. Cobb could fit this scenario also, however, with the Twins aquisition of Odorizzi and Morrison Cobb could make a little better transition with the Twins especially with the familiarity of some teammates already with the Twins?? Just a thought. Cobb is probably the guy they should go after? In my opinion

[Tommygun921]

I think the only way the Twins sign these guys is if there's either an injury, they sign for low dollars and years, or they're still available in May when they are in deeper need of the 5th starter. Which will also be around the time Santana is back. I therefore think they'll be in interest if one of which is available and there's been an injury or Hughes, Sanchez, Mejia, ect hasn't panned out. Leaving an opening behind Berrios, Oddorizzi, Santana, and Gibson.

[ashbury]

Another example is our own Ervin Santana who rejected the QO and signed for exactly the QO. Though you are pointing out those who signed for less.

It's instructive to look at these instances of signing below QO, but I still wonder whether a grievance filing is in the offing if some of these players continue to get only lowball offers. It's not like the players alone mis-judged the market - the teams who issued the QO apparently were comfortable at that price last fall, and a few months later the market has changed THAT much? I'm not ready to embrace any collusion theories yet, but at the dollar values being bandied about via the rumor mill my antennae are up.

[Broker]

@ashburyjohn Those multi million deals spread over many years are simply bad for the teams. At the end of them the player is often simply not what he was when he signed. For the most part the Maurer worked out OK aside from his injury years but that's a gamble with any contract.

[ashbury]

@ashburyjohn Those multi million deals spread over many years are simply bad for the teams.

Perhaps. But when the total contract values being offered are for less than the prior team was willing to commit to for a single season QO, the length of contract starts to be not relevant to the question of how the market collapsed that much.

[Eris]

I think Arrieta, Cobb, and Lynn each received bad advice from their agent. All three were coming off down years and had QO. It was unrealistic to expect > $50 million over 3 years and hope they return to their old form. By accepting the QA they would have had a year to prove themselves and would have entered FA next year with no loss of draft picks or IFA pool money for the signing team. They would potentially have had more value. As a strategy I am surprised it is not more utilized by the players. Especially now that draft picks have more perceived value. I suspect that one of the reasons teams give QO is the high likelihood of them being declined. Look at the dumpster sale in Tampa. It is hard to believe the Rays were expecting to pay Cobb 17 million.

[Han Joelo]

There should be some kind of stock ticker like deal, where the value of these pitchers fluctuates in real time.  A few seconds after Anibel Sanchez gave up a three run homer, you'd see the line LLYN +3...ALCO + 2.5...etc.  In millions.

[ashbury]

There should be some kind of stock ticker like deal, where the value of these pitchers fluctuates in real time.  A few seconds after Anibel Sanchez gave up a three run homer, you'd see the line LLYN +3...ALCO + 2.5...etc.  In millions.

A market based prediction project using futures-trading for elections has been tried before:

https://now.uiowa.edu/2016/09/buying-election

If you read the article you'll see it didn't work any better than other methods of prediction.

[Brandon]

It's instructive to look at these instances of signing below QO, but I still wonder whether a grievance filing is in the offing if some of these players continue to get only lowball offers. It's not like the players alone mis-judged the market - the teams who issued the QO apparently were comfortable at that price last fall, and a few months later the market has changed THAT much? I'm not ready to embrace any collusion theories yet, but at the dollar values being bandied about via the rumor mill my antennae are up.

When the other teams issued the QO, there were no draft picks assigned to them for signing them. The Twins would take into account the value of the draft pick in their offer and a discount based on the fact the player is unsigned and its spring training. It will be hard to prove collusion when the Twins made a 100 million + offer in free agency and have their highest payroll in team history. The reason the players on the market are unsigned is because of all the tanking going on. That isnt fun so I hope that is addressed in the next labor agreement.

 

We are going into this season with basically 6 maybe 7 teams fighting for 5 playoff spots. Yanks, Redsox, Indians, Twins, Astros, Angels, and maybe Seattle. Atleast Texas and Toronto and Baltimore arent tanking.

Edited March 5, 2018 by Brandon