Article: An Offense Poised To Do Damage

[Ted Schwerzler]

In 2017, the Minnesota Twins owned the 19th best team ERA in baseball. They didn’t have a true ace, and they used a club record 36 pitchers. Stability on the mound wasn’t a trait for Paul Molitor’s club, but the group came together to produce an 85-win season and grab a Wild Card spot. Evidenced by the performance on the mound, it was offense that carried the Twins, and this offseason one addition makes them even scarier in the American League.A year ago, the Twins had back-to-back 200 home run seasons for the first time since Harmon Killebrew was on the roster (1964). Minnesota base runners touched home plate 815 times, which was good enough for seventh in all of Major League Baseball (4th in the American League). Though the 206 longballs didn’t threaten the club record (225 in 1963), and the 815 runs didn’t push for immortality either (877 in 1996), both positioned them as a force to be reckoned with at the plate.

 

Suffering through a dismal 2016 season, Minnesota needed until June 21 to register their first double-digit run output. They replicated the feat just 11 more times that whole season. In 2017, the Twins put up double-digits in their ninth game, and went on to do so in 18 matchups over the course of the season. From a year-by-year improvement standard, the production equated to a net of +93 runs. A relatively similar starting lineup by comparison, development had allowed much of the youth to take the next step.

 

Going into this offseason, the Twins focus needed to be pitching. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine needed to give Molitor answers in the pen, as well as the starting rotation. From Jake Odorizzi to Addison Reed, they accomplished those goals and then some. An additional boost could be had for the offense, but it always seemed to be somewhat of a luxury acquisition. When Logan Morrison agreed to a one-year deal worth $6.5 million (and an option for a second year at $8 million), luxury became reality.

 

Not only did Minnesota get a 30 year-old player on the heels of a breakout season, but also they did so at a bargain price, and were able to supplement an area that was already considered a strength. As Morrison enters the Twins fold, it’s an already productive offense that could find it vaulting into the top tier across all of baseball.

 

Despite the success Molitor had with his group a season ago, Minnesota’s designated hitter spot left plenty to be desired. Manned mainly by Robbie Grossman, Twins designated hitters combined to post a sub .720 OPS in 2017. Despite being an on-base machine, Grossman posted just a .380 slugging percentage, and owned a .665 OPS across 59 games from June 1 through September 5th.

 

For a guy who had never previously hit more than 23 homers in a season, it’s hard to see Morrison replicating his 38-long ball performance from 2017. The .868 OPS was good enough for 34th in all of baseball, and is over 100 points better than his .763 career number. Regression is going to factor into production going forward, but most importantly, Morrison made wholesale changes that allowed his advancement at the dish. A dedication to launch angle and elevating the baseball make what was a significant outlying year seem to be more of a result generated by process, and repeatable.

 

Considering Tropicana Field and Target Field had similar park factors a year ago, Morrison’s production should remain relatively stable. Having gone from a 10.8 launch angle in 2015, all the way to 17.4 last year, the hard-hit and contact rates do not need to fluctuate to generate performance. What Morrison, even in a muted sense, brings to the Twins is much higher production at a spot in the lineup where they have previously been considered weak.

 

Expecting the Twins to once again surpass the 200 home run plateau is a pretty solid bet. While Brian Dozier has proven it for the last couple of years, guys like Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler all have the potential to lose more baseballs in the seats. Even outside of the moonshots, run production remains a byproduct of simply getting on base. By adding a player like Morrison, Minnesota will generate more opportunities to put runs on the board.

 

It’s hard to think that the Twins will challenge the 877 run club record, but even an additional 10 runs (to 825) in 2017 would’ve had Minnesota as the third highest scoring offense in baseball (behind the Astros and Yankees). If the Twins are going to get better pitching performances in the year ahead (which they’ve set themselves up to do), and can also increase run production, then this club is going to be a real force to be reckoned with.

 

The reality is few teams have the ability to run Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg out to the mound on a nightly basis. Only so many Clayton Kershaw’s and Chris Sale’s exist across the big leagues. As the Twins continue to develop pitching and push towards a more sustainable model in deploying it, scoring more runs than their opponent is a great fallback option.

 

Falvey and Levine deserve plenty of credit for the supplementing they did for the organization this winter, but it may be the last addition they made that ends up having the largest impact. James Rowson has plenty of bats to work with, and Paul Molitor should have plenty of fun organizing them one through nine.

 

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[twinssporto]

I couldn't agree more.  This offense is gonna be potent!  I went through the whole potential lineup and I wouldn't want to pitch through it.  

 

Couple of thoughts:

 

1. Half the guys are 25 years old or younger.  I don't think they care who is pitching against them.  I see little fear from the young guys after what they did last year.  They have a ton of confidence.

 

2. The veterans are motivated too.  Oh, and they are good hitters.  Mauer, Dozier, LoMo (one great year I know) but probably wreaks of confidence after last year.

 

3. The bench. Not mediocre.  Escobar did more than ok as a back up at 3rd to Sano.  Grossman can get on base.

 

4. Home runs.  This will be fun to watch.  The numbers in this category could get ridiculous.  These estimates are not unreasonable.  Dozier 30, Buxton 21, Kepler 24, Rosario 29, Escobar 18, Sano 30 (with a 30 day suspension and healthy), Castro 17, Mauer 12, LoMo 29, Polanco 12, Grossman 5, Misc players 5.  232 total.  Seems reasonable to me.

 

 

[rdehring]

Me thinks your Misc players getting 5 dingers is low, twinssporto.  Expect Garver will get that many or more himself.  But more by Garver could reduce the number from Castro.  

 

If you are setting 232 as the bar for an over/under, I will take the under!  My reason is that I suspect we will get only about 12-15 from Sano.  Expect there will be a short suspension sometime early in the season, then he will be gone at the trading deadline as part of a whopper trade.  We will get a frontline pitcher and a couple top prospects in return for Sano, Gibson and/or Mejia (or another good prospect).  

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

4. Home runs.  This will be fun to watch.  The numbers in this category could get ridiculous.  These estimates are not unreasonable.  Dozier 30, Buxton 21, Kepler 24, Rosario 29, Escobar 18, Sano 30 (with a 30 day suspension and healthy), Castro 17, Mauer 12, LoMo 29, Polanco 12, Grossman 5, Misc players 5.  232 total.  Seems reasonable to me.

This seems really optimistic. First, it requires extreme team-wide health we simply cannot expect and it predicts very little regression from some players who are likely to regress (Escobar and Rosario, for example).

 

I'd be *very* happy if they crossed 220. I figure something around 210-215 is pretty likely unless things go horribly wrong.

[Tomj14]

 

This seems really optimistic. .

Agreed it seems high for Mauer, Castro and Rosario and maybe LoMo.

Maybe a little low on Dozier and Buxton (hopefully).

Sano is the wild card, but if they cross 220 I think this could be a good year because basically everybody would be healthy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Agreed it seems high for Mauer, Castro and Rosario and maybe LoMo.

Maybe a little low on Dozier and Buxton (hopefully).

Sano is the wild card, but if they cross 220 I think this could be a good year because basically everybody would be healthy.

Agreed on the high. I'd be happy with 25 from Morrison, 10 from Mauer, 10 from Castro.

 

That's 13 home runs difference right there, never mind guys like Escobar that may struggle to hit 15, much less 18.

[bobs]

Not every young player on this roster is going to be better this year.  Law of averages says at least some of Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Hildenberger, Mejia, Gonsalves, et al, will be better this year.  If those that don't take a significant step forward can at least take a small step, along with the additions of Odorizzi, Morrison, Reed makes this team more than capable of making another playoff run.  Are they ready to challenge Cleveland?  We'll see..."It's Baseball" can explain a lot of surprises.  Bottom line, it should be a fun summer at Target Field.  Bring on Spring!!

[bobs]

 

I couldn't agree more.  This offense is gonna be potent!  I went through the whole potential lineup and I wouldn't want to pitch through it.  

 

Couple of thoughts:

 

1. Half the guys are 25 years old or younger.  I don't think they care who is pitching against them.  I see little fear from the young guys after what they did last year.  They have a ton of confidence.

 

2. The veterans are motivated too.  Oh, and they are good hitters.  Mauer, Dozier, LoMo (one great year I know) but probably wreaks of confidence after last year.

 

3. The bench. Not mediocre.  Escobar did more than ok as a back up at 3rd to Sano.  Grossman can get on base.

 

4. Home runs.  This will be fun to watch.  The numbers in this category could get ridiculous.  These estimates are not unreasonable.  Dozier 30, Buxton 21, Kepler 24, Rosario 29, Escobar 18, Sano 30 (with a 30 day suspension and healthy), Castro 17, Mauer 12, LoMo 29, Polanco 12, Grossman 5, Misc players 5.  232 total.  Seems reasonable to me. 

I won't use any negative terms.  I'll say these numbers may be a bit "hopeful" but that's what Spring is for!!  Geez, those numbers would be fun though wouldn't they?!

[caninatl04]

Regression:

 

Polanco, Dozier, the catcher position, Joe Mauer.

 

Wild Cards: well, each of the 3 OFers.

 

Progression: DH

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Regression:

 

Polanco, Dozier, the catcher position, Joe Mauer.

 

Polanco had a .723 OPS last season. You're predicting regression from that number?

[TFRazor]

 

Regression:

 

Polanco, Dozier, the catcher position, Joe Mauer.

 

Wild Cards: well, each of the 3 OFers.

 

Progression: DH

People have been waiting on Dozier to regress for the last 4 years. It hasn't happened yet and I don't see it happening this year as long as he's healthy