Someone posted a very convincing article (on this site I think) recently about why his breakout is for real... I cannot find it (naturally). 

 

I guess ultimately there's some risk, but this looks like a way of spending the remaining funds they had available on sure a fire upgrade. I'd have liked it to be a pitcher, to be clear, but if they are convinced that they are done with SP upgrades, this is the next best thing. Our DH play wasn't exactly stellar last season. An .850 OPS with a legit 30+ HR power threat is a big add to a lineup that has a very real possibility of finishing in the top 5. 

I hope this means granite is the 4th outfielder over Grossman. Gross has no business being any where near the outfield. At this point it’s a toss up for me if they should keep Vargas or Grossman.

 

Someone posted a very convincing article (on this site I think) recently about why his breakout is for real... I cannot find it (naturally). 

 

I guess ultimately there's some risk, but this looks like a way of spending the remaining funds they had available on sure a fire upgrade. I'd have liked it to be a pitcher, to be clear, but if they are convinced that they are done with SP upgrades, this is the next best thing. Our DH play wasn't exactly stellar last season. An .850 OPS with a legit 30+ HR power threat is a big add to a lineup that has a very real possibility of finishing in the top 5. 

I think the Twins finished fifth in scoring last season. If the lineup shakes out as expected and Morrison is good again (.800+ OPS), they can easily be a top three offense.

 

This lineup doesn't only have the chance to be good, they can be dominant. Remember that despite the good play of guys like Buxton and Polanco in the second half, they only ended up being somewhere around league average with the bat at the end of the season. We could see some regression from guys like Dozier and Mauer but that regression can be absorbed and the lineup still improves overall behind more steady play from Polanco, Buxton, Kepler, and Sano.

FWIW, those looking at WAR -- Morrison mostly played 1B last year (119 starts), with just a bit of DH (17 starts). If those reverse, he will lose about 3-4 runs just through the positional adjustment (Rpos at B-Ref). Plus losing another 1 run from fielding, since he won't be playing the field much.

 

So even if he repeats his 2017 offensive performance (and health), it may only be worth 3.1 bWAR / 2.8 fWAR (rather than 3.6 / 3.3) in the context of the 2018 Twins. (Assuming Mauer takes the lion's share of 1B reps.)

 

Still pretty good for such a modest commitment, of course. But it just changes the baseline a bit.

Edited February 26, 20188 yr by spycake

 

Let's hope this is some added motivation for Sano in that aspect.  My guess is he will also spell Mauer some on days where a lefty is going and Mauer gets a day off here and there on those days.  You roll with Sano/Morrison back to back assuming Sano hits 3rd that pop written all over it.  Very nice pickup for the club.  If he performs in a similar fashion to last year that is a HUGE bat in the lineup.  To echo many fans thoughts it is probably the Vargas/Grossman show now.  My gut feeling is Molitor prefers Grossman.  His career OBP is .351 vs. .311 to Vargas.  In the past I don't feel as if Molitor trusted Vargas.  Personally I love Vargas's pop.  The 64K question is can he figure it out long term.  I think you know what you are getting in Grossman.  He isn't going to wow you in any sense but he is a solid bench player who would know his role on this ball club.  My worry is we release Vargas someone else claims him and he turns into Ortiz 2.0.  On the flip side this would be his 5th year in the big leagues so maybe time has passed in the sense for him truly figuring it out.  Questions FO will have to think about for certain.  WIN TWINS!

 

If anything, this locks Sano into 3B. I'm guessing the Twins think enough of Sano's conditioning thus far to sign a full time DH...  He's locked into 3B now. 

 

I think the Twins finished fifth in scoring last season. If the lineup shakes out as expected and Morrison is good again (.800+ OPS), they can easily be a top three offense.

 

This lineup doesn't only have the chance to be good, they can be dominant. Remember that despite the good play of guys like Buxton and Polanco in the second half, they only ended up being somewhere around league average with the bat at the end of the season. We could see some regression from guys like Dozier and Mauer but that regression can be absorbed and the lineup still improves overall behind more steady play from Polanco, Buxton, Kepler, and Sano.

 

Keep in mind they were the number 1 offense for the entire second half of the season (or something like that)... I think they had a legit shot at top 3 without Morrison. 

 

You're right... if Polanco's problems were due to his bereavement and 2nd half Buxton is the real deal....  this is a very dangerous lineup. 

While I don't like LoMo as a person, I like this as a baseball move. And that's why I'm here.

 

Solid signing, great price, and in theory it could mean moving on from both Grossman and Vargas, which would give much better flexibility to the bench. That is, if they can trade off the pair for something with a little value. I doubt they do that though. They'll probably keep Grossman as the 4th OF even if I prefer better defense out of that role.

 

Looking closer at Morrison's projections -- as you would expect, both ZiPS and Steamer have him losing power and walks from 2017. Still, they both project him to roughly match his pre-2017 career highs in both BB% and ISO, so they are not unreasonable in that regard.

 

Even so, after his 130 wRC+ in 2017, ZiPS still looks pretty good with a 120 wRC+ -- but it also projects him for a .288 BABIP, when his career mark is .273 and his 2017 season was only .268.  Steamer gives him a .278 BABIP and the result is just a 108 wRC+.

 

Grossman projects at 104/107 by Steamer/ZiPS, and Vargas 100/101. (And Grossman is coming off a 102 and Vargas a 98.)

Yeah, we'll all be anxiously waiting to see if Morrison can replicate his performance from last year, which keep in mind was FAR above anything he had previously produced. Was his 2017 production a freaky outlier, or the sign that he has finally matured and figured it all out?

I think the approach change is real, I just think expecting thirty home runs as a baseline is optimistic. Good signing, at a good price....

 

If anything, this locks Sano into 3B. I'm guessing the Twins think enough of Sano's conditioning thus far to sign a full time DH...  He's locked into 3B now. 

I agree he is the starting 3B.  No argument what so ever. 

Let’s not forget Adrianza is the one who platooned nicely with Kepler down the stretch last year. LoMo pushes Vargas out no doubt. Twins will have 13 position players to start the season, but sooner or later Grossman or Adrianza will have to be let go to make way for a 13 man pitching staff.

 

I think the approach change is real, I just think expecting thirty home runs as a baseline is optimistic. Good signing, at a good price....

Yeah, we should all be thrilled if Morrison crosses 25 homers. I don't expect 38 but if he can post somewhere in the 25-30 range, this contract is an absolute steal.

 

Yeah, we should all be thrilled if Morrison crosses 25 homers. I don't expect 38 but if he can post somewhere in the 25-30 range, this contract is an absolute steal.

 

Hell, at $6.5M base it's still probably a steal even if he gets on base closer to his career mark and jacks 20.

 

Let’s not forget Adrianza is the one who platooned nicely with Kepler down the stretch last year. LoMo pushes Vargas out no doubt. Twins will have 13 position players to start the season, but sooner or later Grossman or Adrianza will have to be let go to make way for a 13 man pitching staff.

Let's hope that a 13 man pitching staff isn't inevitable though. One issue the Twins will face is that they don't have a lot of players with options in the bullpen so they won't be able to do the sending down shuffle to get fresh pitchers like they did a few times last year (and other teams did more often).

 

If Morrison is as good as advertised, meaning that he needs to play every day, it doesn't leave many at bats for Sano at DH. Hopefully his leg is strong enough to take the pounding of being on the field every day!!

Pounding? Baseball ain't exactly hockey. If you can stand, walk, run a little, you can play the game. :-)

Our good lineup just got better. Great move. Get Lynn now

Seems I was on to something...