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Article: Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi From Rays For Jermaine Palacios


Seth Stohs

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Move past the ERA. It's just an illusion, man.

A career 3.83 ERA in 705 innings for a pitcher who is still 27 and plays in the toughest pitching division in the majors. One bad year of FIP, and he's a bum?

 

Great mid-rotation pickup, and I'm a big fan of Palacios.

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Well Odorizzi is moving out of the east division and into the central. That alo e will improve his FIP and x FIP. Then there is the Buxton factor as well. Odorizzi chews up innings so solid move. I forgive the front office a little for the Darvish bull**** but not entirely yet.

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If Odorizzi’s peripherals we’re down last year because his injuries were lingering (2 separate DL stints), or because he was pitching himself into shape, AND he’s now healthy, I’m good with the assumption he’s a likely bounce back candidate. The low price of a guy who, through no fault of his own, projects as a utility player at best for us is also nice.

 

That being said, if Odorizzi is truly what he showed last year, we just got a guy that’s going to make it harder to start evaluating Gonsalves and Romero at the major league level. If that’s what happens, any price was too high to pay.

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There's an awful lot of enthusiasm for a guy who has home run problems and is moving from a ballpark that suppresses home runs to one that struggles to contain them. I see more Ricky Nolasco than Ervin Santana. I sure hope I'm wrong. Maybe the FO sees something they can tweak or maybe it was injury related.

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I'm happy with this news. I'll gladly trade an A-level #20 org prospect for someone who can help in the majors right now. He's arb-eligible for 1 more year so it's not a rental either.

 

Hopefully he returns to #3 starter performance this season and fix whatever went wrong for him last year.

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Overall, last 4 years, solid ERA in the AL and the AL East. Solid AVG, WHIP and SO and BB numbers. Nothing special, but solid all the way around. AVG in 2017 was career best. Still only 27. Still entering his prime years with a quality young team. A solid addition. Does he have more in him at 27?d That's the key.

 

I can't remember the last time I saw a proven, at least decent, ML SP traded for a single prospect, much less one in A ball. Now I think Polacios has talent and a future. Despite not liking the drafting of Gordon so highly, I have become a fan and believer. I think he's going to be a nice ballplayer, maybe even a really good one. But I have said before, if I wasn't looking for almost immediate help, I'd really like one of the younger SS in the system. But still never figured it would be a 1 to 1 trade. Unless Palacios turns out to be an absolute ML stud, this is at worst an even trade. And at 27, a new team, change of scenery, new coaching ideas, maturity, this smells sweetly of a potential steal.

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Perhaps the FO will surprise us but I think this move signals the end of the offseason for the Twins.

I feel that the FO got very good value in each of the moves and avoided any long term damage (long contracts or trading top prospects). However, they didn't make the moves that are needed to improve this year and be a true contender. Improvement will mostly come from prospects and young players improving. I don't think there will be enough of a starting rotation to contend for the playoffs unless the Twins are very, very lucky (like the run Colon and Gibson went on in the second half).

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He reminds me Phil Hughes.  AL East guy coming off some struggles that likes to work up in the zone.  He has a way better secondary pitch but less control.  Get him out of playing on the turf in TB/TOR and the small stadiums in NY/BOS + not facing those big O lineups a bunch

 

Solid addition to the middle of the rotation, Palacios is a decent young prospect but certainly an acceptable price.

 

I would love to still see Lynn/ Cobb added but I think Falvine is probably done pitching wise now.  C'mon Romero/ Gonsalvez take AAA by storm we will need someone to graduate and make an impact this year.

 

 

 

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To sum up, nobody thinks the Twins got fleeced; everybody would have made the same deal, but he may be more of a 4/5 than a 2/3. There are significant red flags that could indicate we will be disappointed when he is taking up innings that would otherwise be going to a promising youngster. But, we are also putting faith in the Twins new front office and pitching coach that they can tweak something and get him back to above league average.

 

Looking back at comments and articles this offseason it’s clear many thought the Rays would get a much more highly touted return. There are suggestions Kepler would not be out of the question, and this tweet from Berardino, “#Rays remain open to dealing RHP Jake Odorizzi (among others) but have made it clear to potential trade partners they will have to "extend" to get their attention.”

 

Great job Falvine!

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This trade shows that teams value top prospects and players of Youth at an all-time high and put a premium on them as opposed to simply going out and signing a player via FA to a contract to maybe fill a short term void. Add in the fact Palacios who I'm sure mlb.com or mlbpipeline (Mayo , Manuel , Callis) would have ranked inside the Twins top 15 or so prospects... (Updated list to be released next week) AND is a Short-Stop. Makes Palacios a bigger value add to a small market team like the Rays than initially meets the eye. The other interesting part is the Rays Just recently signed Int. F.A. Wander Franco away from us who also is a young SS. - A Prospect with a higher cieling than Wander Javier.

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Now this I can get behind, especially for what we have up for him. Is he an ace? No, but he is a solid pitcher, someone who can actually add depth for our rotation and not be terrible. Ordorizzi is also around Chris Archer’s age so there is hope he still has some quality seasons ahead of him.

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I don't believe Santana will be out long enough to be placed on the 60-dqy.

While Santana's injury will keep him out until mid to late April, the nature of the injury will prevent him from throwing until then as well.

 

Since he is missing all of Spring Training, he will way behind in his season prep. After he can throw, he will workout with the team for a couple of weeks and then go on a full 21 day rehab stint.

 

I'd be surprised to see Santana pitching for the Twins before June.

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I add my voice to the chorus: it's hard not to like this trade. Giving up only one player, and a lower level minor league one at that, for Odorizzi seems like a deal that, while maybe not a "steal", heavily favors the Twins, Thumbs up! But hey, maybe Tampa Bay sees something special in Palacios. For their sake, I hope so. If I'm a Tampa Bay fan, I'm scratching my head over his one. Meanwhile, the Twins didn't get an ace, but a durable starter who could end up being an above average addition to the rotation. I just hope his stats in 2018 end up looking more like they did 3 years ago for TB.

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I feel this is a every solid deal for the Twins and now I really like the depth once Santana is healthy.

For some bizarre reason, instead of reading your post as referring to Santana, I had a mental lapse that the player you were talking about was Santiago. Whew! Thankfully, that's not the case!

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In the current situation it's a good deal. We gave up a decent player at a position we had depth in and got back a serviceable MLB starter. I agree with those who doubt/fear we are done dealing. Someone like this, in this division, could get us to the WC game. But it still leaves us short on playoff level match ups. It will also be interesting to see what happens to the 40 man. Add in the Sano issues, there's still going to be a lot of moving parts going forward.

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I like the trade too, but I think some are overrating the "AL East" effect, especially recently. In 2017, the Yankees were the only east team in the top 5 in AL runs scored, Toronto was last, Orioles 8th. In 2016, the Red Sox had a big year, but the Yankees were only 12th.

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This is weird. On paper I'm having a hard time thinking of a better Twins trade based on current value. This looks like a big improvement when compared to last years SPs. He's a fly ball pitcher, and the Twins have a very good defense in the OF. I simply can't believe that the Rays couldn't have gotten more for him from MLB teams, probably even good pitching prospects. Did the Twins blackmail Tampa Bay's management?

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