Article: Minnesota and Mauer Facing Important 2018

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, not all of us agree RBI are a worthless stat.

 

I would characterize WAR that way, though. Or nearly so.

I said almost. Obviously the goal is to score runs, so RBI are important. It's just not a great stat at showing an individual contribution.

 

And the discussion was regarding salary, that's mainly why I brought up WAR. You might not like it, but most FO's are using their own internal WAR to make roster and contract decisions.

I'd guess very few are still factoring a circumstantial stat like RBI much when it comes to those decisions.

 

Is a player more valuable if he hits a seeing eye single, when there just happens to be bases loaded, as opposed to a guy who hits a home run, when (through zero fault of his own) nobody happens to be on base?

[USAFChief]

I said almost. Obviously the goal is to score runs, so RBI are important. It's just not a great stat at showing an individual contribution.

And the discussion was regarding salary, that's mainly why I brought up WAR. You might not like it, but most FO's are using their own internal WAR to make roster and contract decisions.

I'd guess very few are still factoring a circumstantial stat like RBI much when it comes to those decisions.

Is a player more valuable if he hits a seeing eye single, when there just happens to be bases loaded, as opposed to a guy who hits a home run, when (through zero fault of his own) nobody happens to be on base?

Fair enough, good points.

 

I do concur front offices are likely using their own internal evaluation tools.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I generally like your story except for two phrases. Offensive ‘juggernaut’? No that’s Walt Disney imagination. An impressive single hitting machine, clutch hitter, great reader of pitches, yes. Juggernaut- not so much. ‘Living Legend’? No, again a long reach. He will be remembered for a long time, Minnesota boy and all. But he has done almost nothing in playoff ball and that just makes his story a great Saturday afternoon matinee.

come now, semantics about how to poetically describe one of the best hitting and fielding catchers to have ever played? Why is a little hyperbole regarding our guy such a bad thing?

 

He was unequivocally GREAT as a catcher. Brain injuries robbed him of some continued great years, but he’s rebounded.

 

It’s not his fault is owner and GM haven’t done anything to get that team over the hump of playoff contender to WS contender.

 

He was GREAT and is now good and agree it’ll be very interesting to see how this unfolds.

[Rosterman]

Depends on how the front office is positioning the Twins of the Future.

 

Hopefully we would be done with signings like Colon. Wait, maybe we will be done with signings like Rodney and Sanchez.

 

Anyways, where does he play, who is in the wings, what does he bring to the lineup and roster.

 

Two things:

 

Mauer WILL NOT want to be a parttime bench guy if he comes back anywhere in 2019.

 

Second, he will command a minimum of $8 and someone will offer 2-3 years at $10-12 million a year., if they have a need for him and his bat on their roster.

 

But it eventually comes down to Joe. Does he need the money? Does he want to play in a different city? Does he even want to continue with baseball in any way down the line?

[Thrylos]

Data:

 

In 2017 among first basemen with >400 PA in the majors, Mauer was:

 

17th in WAR,

21st in wOBA, and

21st in wRC+

 

in other words he was on the bottom half of starting first basemen in all these categories.

 

Minnesota boy and the ghost of the past and all of that, the Twins need to make a decision based on baseball, especially when they are competing.  These numbers would not be good enough for any world series contender and should not be good enough for the Twins.  If he is among the top 5-10 first basemen in the game this season, then they should think about extending him, otherwise they should not.

 

Every good thing has its end.

Edited February 17, 2018 by Thrylos

[birddog]

However we use to measure it, I hope Joe has a great season. Personally I would prefer to see him be aggressive and swing away at hittable pitches with RISP, especially late in the game. Just saying that we can replace Joe's average stats next year--although maybe not his OBP--with pretty much any of our young 1B/OF types and save around $22 million to spend on the SP we desperately need.

[LeatherAntenna]

I expect to see him be aggressive and swing at hittable pitches with RISP because 2018 is another contract year for him. History thus dictates that we should see another 28 HR year out of him.

[Mr. Brooks]

I expect to see him be aggressive and swing at hittable pitches with RISP because 2018 is another contract year for him. History thus dictates that we should see another 28 HR year out of him.

He's never had a contract year before.

2009 wasn't a contract year.

[ewen21]

 

I agree with everything LeatherAntenna had to say on this. I’m a Mauer fan. I think he’s been judged too harshly, but “living legend” and “offensive juggernaut” are unnecessary hyperbole.

I’d love to see the Twins sign him to another year at $6-8M, but I bought tickets for the season finale today because I don’t expect we’ll see him in a Twins uniform past 2018.

Great career, but not legendary.

We can look back and say great career, but these last four seasons we have not seen anything resembling "great".  We watched him become one of the league leaders in taking strikes.  It is maddening to watch him stand there and take strikes the way he does.  He seems to do it more with runners in scoring position.  Very frustrating to watch, considering he is supposed to be a "juggernaut".  We have watched him get crippled by an opposite field shift.  Not sure why he has ignored the right field corner.  I would like to see him scorch some balls down the right field line.  Is that something he can no longer do?   Odd.

 

I think any HOF aspirations are out the window at this point.  His career took too much of a nosedive.  He cannot be viewed as a catcher any longer.  We can't line him up against Berra, Piazza, Carter, Bench, etc....those guys caught their who career.  Mauer has spent too much time away from the position and can no longer have that chip in the HOF lottery.  It is what it is.  As much as we might want to see him in the HOF we don't dictate the process

 

Finally, our market is like 3% of the league.  What we think here is all but irrelevant with regards to the HOF.  I personally feel he would need to have a two or three year renaissance.  The HOF is for guys who have a track record of durability.  As an offensive player, you have to put up the numbers.  Joe doesn't have the power numbers so he really needs a high hit total

 

That is all I have to say about Joe Mauer and the HOF.  I really do not care about the Hall

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Phil Miller has a really good article on this subject.

 

http://m.startribune.com/with-his-minnesota-twins-contract-expiring-what-s-next-for-joe-mauer/474397383/

[LeatherAntenna]

I am not a great fan of Mauer for a variety of reasons, but I have to say after reading this Star Tribune link I have more appreciation for him then I have ever had before. It’s probably the kids of his which really put a real human element into what he will be going through this year. Will the Twins want him back at a salary that he thinks is fair? But what is fair to the player from the standpoint of young kids (and perhaps uprooting family) with a player in or near the twilight of his career? Why do the Twins say they will treat discussions on his contract with him in the upmost respect yet they haven’t reached out to him yet even just for some polite conversation? Sure the club doesn’t have any obligation to talk yet, but a 17 year and only a Twin vet - one would think the team and Mauer would have had some back and forth already-at least if only for the club to say— hope that the year goes well and their is reason for mutually beneficial discussions in the off season.

[Mike Sixel]

Don't they treat all contact discussions with utmost respect?

[ashbury]

Don't they treat all contact discussions with utmost respect?

Probably not. Appropriate =/= utmost in every case.

[Ted Schwerzler]

Over the course of his career, Joe Mauer has been worth 48.1 fWAR. As a catcher (and including his 35 G rookie year), he averaged 4.1 fWAR per season. Having played four years since moving from behind the dish, that would extrapolate his total to 60.34 fWAR. That number would put him somewhere in the realm of Fisk, Berra, and Pizza.

 

No other AL catcher has ever won a batting title, and only two other catchers have one a single one at all. Mauer has 3.

 

I realize people dislike his contract (wrongly), or are mad because he doesn't profile as a prototypical first basemen (or power threat), but if you don't see what he's done over the course of his career (and what is was on track to be), then I really can't help you.

 

Oh, and because why not at this point.... Mauer>Puckett

 

[Mike Sixel]

Not sure what any of that had to do with extending him out not? He's a median or worse first baseman the past few years. For a team that won't, as we've seen this year and last, sign expressive players, they apparently need to save every penny they can....

[bighat]

Per usual, a lot of unnecessary criticism of Joe from the fans. Sure, he's not a typical corner infielder with his 8-10 HR per year. But don't you think that when your 2B is hitting 35 HRs, you can afford a bit of a downgrade in power at 1B? The guy bats .300 and gives the Twins gold-glove defense. He was 7th in the AL in batting average and 5th in OBP! 

 

We'd be thrilled if Rooker even came close to those numbers. Thrilled. Rooker is a lottery ticket, a dream. Joe Mauer is going to give you Joe Mauer production. Enjoy it. It's guaranteed, money in the bank. If he has another year like 2017, extend him and be happy when he accepts. We'd all like to have Joey Votto as our 1B, but guys like that don't grow on trees. LETS GO JOE!

[Mike Sixel]

That's some serious cherry picking of stats.....

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[jmlease1]

 

Over the course of his career, Joe Mauer has been worth 48.1 fWAR. As a catcher (and including his 35 G rookie year), he averaged 4.1 fWAR per season. Having played four years since moving from behind the dish, that would extrapolate his total to 60.34 fWAR. That number would put him somewhere in the realm of Fisk, Berra, and Pizza.

 

No other AL catcher has ever won a batting title, and only two other catchers have one a single one at all. Mauer has 3.

 

I realize people dislike his contract (wrongly), or are mad because he doesn't profile as a prototypical first basemen (or power threat), but if you don't see what he's done over the course of his career (and what is was on track to be), then I really can't help you.

 

Oh, and because why not at this point.... Mauer>Puckett

 

Berra is actually a really good comp in a lot of ways. Yogi hit for more power, Joe got on base a lot more...but otherwise the biggest difference is Yogi was able to stay behind the plate longer. both started in MLB at age 21 and didn't play much (Joe injured his knee, Yogi got a cup of coffee with the '46 Yankees) but took off almost immediately thereafter. Yogi played 19 seasons and accumulated exactly 6.1 additional bWAR over Joe. The other big difference is Yogi played on one of the greatest dynasties in all sports. he was a great player who played with other all-timers and as a result he got to play in the world series 14 times. But they're not really all that far apart, and Yogi is considered an inner-ring, no-doubt HoFer and we've forgotten just how good Joe Mauer really was and is.

 

Ted mentions other catchers who have won batting titles, and one of them is an excellent comp for Joe Mauer: Ernie Lombardi. The big man won two of them, in fact, and he and Mauer grade out pretty evenly overall on the offensive end. Of course, Lombardi did it over 17 seasons and we only have 14 for Joe, but Ernie's in the Hall (deservedly so) and Joe's got the edge on him in WAR no matter who you look at already. Both won MVPs, both were best known for their ability to hit the ball, both grounded into quite a few double plays.

 

I think people downgrade Joe Mauer because they think we should have seen a few more years like the MVP year, that he wasn't worth the contract, that he should have somehow found a way to "carry the team"...but the reality is, he's the best player this generation of Twins fans have seen play for the team and I hope he a) has another good year, and b ) we can find a way to keep him on the club aother couple of seasons.

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

Not sure what any of that had to do with extending him out not? He's a median or worse first baseman the past few years. For a team that won't, as we've seen this year and last, sign expressive players, they apparently need to save every penny they can....

Median or worse because of offensive expectations? He doesn't hit for power, but his 36 doubles last season were a yearly high since 2010. As a defender, graded out as elite, and better in baseball than anyone not named Brandon Belt...

[Mike Sixel]

Median or worse because of offensive expectations? He doesn't hit for power, but his 36 doubles last season were a yearly high since 2010. As a defender, graded out as elite, and better in baseball than anyone not named Brandon Belt...

Compared to other first basemen....I posted the link.

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

Compared to other first basemen....I posted the link.

Mauer posted a 2.3 fWAR...of course that's low (16th) compared to other 1B. He doesn't hit for power, and his greatest asset at this dish is OBP...

 

Right now, Mauer's value isn't derived from what he does at the plate. His defensive metrics make him more valuable than a player with his offensive output should be.

[Mike Sixel]

His defense is in that WAR.

[bighat]

 

That's some serious cherry picking of stats.....

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

How is touting Joe's .305 average "cherry picking"? 

[Mike Sixel]

How is touting Joe's .305 average "cherry picking"?

I'm out. If people don't want to look at all the available information, and compare him to other first basemen, that's their right.

[Jham]

I agree that Mauer has an important year coming up. I disagree that fans and especially posters are overly harsh.

 

First, posters like Mike are using actual stats and comparisons. Granted stats don't tell the whole story. But what does Joe do that doesn't show up in the stats?

 

2nd, the contract. Of course people are frustrated that by far his best ever season came the year before he signed good contract. He missed April that year. He hit 11 hr in May. 8 or 9 in June. And 8 or 9 the rest of the year. What was he doing in April?

 

3rd, a lot of what is considered criticism of Mauer is just not agreeing with posts that praise him. Greater than Puckett? Depends how you look at it, but a statement like that is only really asking for Mauer-bashing. I'm sorry, but although I don't blame Mauer for not being a leader, and I personally question whether he's a winner, it does play into perception. Like Wiggins for the Wolves, it too often is difficult to tell whether he cares whether the team wounds or loses. Wasn't his first ever game winning hit last season? Better than Puckett?

[Deduno Abides]

Mauer was great. Last year he was good. I hope he has another good year this year and then retires. An extension would be pushing his luck, for him and the team. It’s better to leave a year too early than a year too late. If he signs an extension and then declines, even on a normal curve, a lot of fans will turn against him and have some kind of expectation that he should retire mid-season like Ken Griffey, Jr. and may be resentful if he doesn’t.