Article: Darvish Down To The Studs

[pogofan]

 

I read an article from a NY writer suggesting the Yankees make Darvish a 6 year offer of 30 mil for first 2 years, 20 mil for years 3 and 4 and 10 mil for years 5 and 6. With opt outs after years 2 and 4. Seems like a good deal for both sides and still puts him at the $120 mil 6 year deal that's been talked about by many.

 

I was thinking along similar lines: where is it written that the salary has to rise each year during a contract?

[Platoon]

There is an old Cajun tale about a coon hunter stuck in a tree at night with a bobcat. He yells at his partner "Shoot shoot!" The partner is afraid he will hit the guy by mistake. The treed hunter says "just shoot, I don't care which one of us you hit!" And that's the Twins, just do something. That said, I can see going for a Darvish in this time frame. But don't get fooled into thinking they are going to play with the Big Boys. That's a fools errand. IF the new FO is flexible and imaginative they can compete with regularity by moving assets around. Something the old FO did not. They got hung up on sacred cows and waddled in limbo for years.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

"Jon Heyman in MLB trade rumors has stated that there’s “reason to believe” that neither the Brewers or the Twins are a top choice for Darvish, though, so either team could perhaps need to be more aggressive in order to land him."

I view this type of info as posturing and leveraging.

I have no idea what Darvish does or does not value in a future team, but it seems like many of the top end free agents are waiting for a bidding war that isn't happening. I absolutely agree with your assumption of posturing. I believe that he's trying to get MIN or MIL to compete with each other or with a team that isn't really in it to drive the price up.  

 

I gotta think Money and World Series Contention are the 1 and 2 criterion and then there's the whole litany of other stuff like fit, culture, community that we can't really put a metric to.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

I'm not sure why he'd live in MN in the off season......an MLB player is only in town for 3-4 months, max. There really is no reason to live there, if you don't want to.

 

I don't think we know what he wants, but if I had to guess, MN and Mil are not the top of the list.

Mauer lives in FL most of the year, why wouldn't the whole team?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Mauer lives in FL most of the year, why wouldn't the whole team?

I believe this is no longer true, since he had kids -- Mauer makes his permanent home in Minnesota.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mauer lives in FL most of the year, why wouldn't the whole team?

 

I'm not sure what the point is of this post is....my point about Darvish, who is not from MN and probably wants to live where there are more Japanese (though we don't know that) and/or more diversity than you can find in MN.....is that MLB players don't actually spend that much time in their home cities. And, almost all the school year is not the MLB season. 

[USAFChief]

 

Darvish throws 6 different pitches. As long as he is not injured he will be atleast a serviceable pitcher the 5th and 6th year of his contract. Just add the 6th year and get insurance on the contract...

Insurance on player contracts is getting rarer, is extremely costly (especially for pitchers), and almost never runs longer than 3 yrs at a time.

 

Here's one article on contract insurance, you can find more easily: 

 

 https://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/understanding-the-business-of-baseball-insurance-on-player-contracts.html/

[Bill Tanner]

My prediction - when pitchers and catchers report on Tuesday, Pineda is moved to the 60-day DL.  Twins will use the 40-man roster spot for Napoli.  Unfortunately, they cannot do the same for Santana, because they would lose him through May (60 days from start of regular season).  Signing Darvish likely means Kinley is offered back to Miami.

[Taildragger8791]

 

My prediction - when pitchers and catchers report on Tuesday, Pineda is moved to the 60-day DL.  Twins will use the 40-man roster spot for Napoli.  Unfortunately, they cannot do the same for Santana, because they would lose him through May (60 days from start of regular season).  Signing Darvish likely means Kinley is offered back to Miami.

 

Do the 60 days not start counting down until after opening day?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Do the 60 days not start counting down until after opening day?

Correct. Even though you can add a guy to the 60-day DL in spring training, those spring training days don't count toward the 60.

[Kelly Vance]

Someone needs to take Yu ice fishing. Maybe he will catch a walleye.

 

Then he would realize that  Minnesota has way more to offer than LA, which has a boring 70 degree climate in winter, Disneyland, Universal Studios, Magic Mountain, Hollywood, Laguna, Malibu, Knotts Berry Farm and all those boring warm weather golf courses. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Someone needs to take Yu ice fishing. Maybe he will catch a walleye.

 

Then he would realize that  Minnesota has way more to offer than LA, which has a boring 70 degree climate in winter, Disneyland, Universal Studios, Magic Mountain, Hollywood, Laguna, Malibu, Knotts Berry Farm and all those boring warm weather golf courses. 

 

Yeah

 

The Snowmobiling sucks in Southern California!!!

[KirbyDome89]

 

He and others have been saying that throughout the offseason, and have done so not just about Darvish, but FA's willingness to come to Minnesota in general, due to the weather, the market, and other negative platitudes. It sounds like speculation, rather than source-work (i.e. "reason to believe" rather than "insider/person-familiar suggests").

I'm with you, those characterizations get old. I always find it funny that weather seems to be such an impediment to the Twins drawing interest but the Tigers and Cubs have had no problem luring top players recently. It's almost as if players will go wherever the $$ is. Crazy right?

[yarnivek1972]

I’m not sure I agree with the almost presumed assesment that “this is the time”. Still an awful lot of uncertainty on the roster IMO. Which Byron Buxton will show up this year? Will Kepler hit LHP? Is Rosario really what he was last year? Will Sano stay healthy? Will he be suspended for a large chunk of time? Will Berrios remain consistent? What about after him? Not much there, even with a Darvish. A two man rotation might get it done in the playoffs, but you have to get there first. Even with Darvish, the opening day # 3 had a 5 plus ERA the last two years. Still bullpen questions. Plenty of new faces. How will it all shake out? Awful lot of pressure on Hildenberger and Rogers, two still extremely green relievers.

 

Say the Twins get Darvish but it turns out Sano is on the DL more than he plays the next 5 years, Kepler never hits LHP, Rosario and Buxton slide back. Now you have a great ace on an otherwise lousy team. Still a lot of unknowns I think to say “this year is our shot”.

[old nurse]

 

I'm not sure why he'd live in MN in the off season......an MLB player is only in town for 3-4 months, max. There really is no reason to live there, if you don't want to.

 

I don't think we know what he wants, but if I had to guess, MN and Mil are not the top of the list.

Opening day is March 29.  3-4 months would mean their season was over in June or July, not October.

[Twins33]

Opening day is March 29.  3-4 months would mean their season was over in June or July, not October.

I think they are thinking time actually spent in MN. They are on the road the rest of the time.

[Platoon]

Someone needs to take Yu ice fishing. Maybe he will catch a walleye.

 

Then he would realize that  Minnesota has way more to offer than LA, which has a boring 70 degree climate in winter, Disneyland, Universal Studios, Magic Mountain, Hollywood, Laguna, Malibu, Knotts Berry Farm and all those boring warm weather golf courses.

 

All that, and in MN he could zip line across the Mississipi! Let's see him try that in LA across the Pacific!

[ewen21]

I wonder if he's gotten an offer from a Japanese organization and is just going to say CYA!

[Mr. Brooks]

I think they'd probably be fine putting Ervin on the 60 day DL.

12 weeks puts him roughly a week into May, at which point he'd need a lengthy rehab assignment.

At worst, he probably misses one more start than he would have needed to.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I’m not sure I agree with the almost presumed assesment that “this is the time”. Still an awful lot of uncertainty on the roster IMO. Which Byron Buxton will show up this year? Will Kepler hit LHP? Is Rosario really what he was last year? Will Sano stay healthy? Will he be suspended for a large chunk of time? Will Berrios remain consistent? What about after him? Not much there, even with a Darvish. A two man rotation might get it done in the playoffs, but you have to get there first. Even with Darvish, the opening day # 3 had a 5 plus ERA the last two years. Still bullpen questions. Plenty of new faces. How will it all shake out? Awful lot of pressure on Hildenberger and Rogers, two still extremely green relievers.

Say the Twins get Darvish but it turns out Sano is on the DL more than he plays the next 5 years, Kepler never hits LHP, Rosario and Buxton slide back. Now you have a great ace on an otherwise lousy team. Still a lot of unknowns I think to say “this year is our shot”.

If not now, then when?  If everything shakes out poorly, the alternative is what, another full rebuild? Wait for Royce Lewis and others to get ready and then make FA moves?  There's risk inherent no matter when the Twins decide to go for it.

[caninatl04]

Given the lack of SP FA signings, are we seeing implicit or explicit collusion?

[laloesch]

Looks like the lesser free agent dominoes are starting to fall.  How many signing today? 3 or 4 out of 100?  Just a trickle now.

Edited February 9, 2018 by laloesch

[Squirrel]

 

All that, and in MN he could zip line across the Mississipi! Let's see him try that in LA across the Pacific!

Really? There's a zip line across the Mississippi? Seems foolish for something you can just walk across in about 10 steps knee-deep.

 

http://www.lakesnwoods.com/images/LakeIt78.jpg

[ahart10]

Derek Holland was signed to a minor league deal per MLBTR. That’s a steal imho.

[notoriousgod71]

 

I’m not sure I agree with the almost presumed assesment that “this is the time”. Still an awful lot of uncertainty on the roster IMO. Which Byron Buxton will show up this year? Will Kepler hit LHP? Is Rosario really what he was last year? Will Sano stay healthy? Will he be suspended for a large chunk of time? Will Berrios remain consistent? What about after him? Not much there, even with a Darvish. A two man rotation might get it done in the playoffs, but you have to get there first. Even with Darvish, the opening day # 3 had a 5 plus ERA the last two years. Still bullpen questions. Plenty of new faces. How will it all shake out? Awful lot of pressure on Hildenberger and Rogers, two still extremely green relievers.

Say the Twins get Darvish but it turns out Sano is on the DL more than he plays the next 5 years, Kepler never hits LHP, Rosario and Buxton slide back. Now you have a great ace on an otherwise lousy team. Still a lot of unknowns I think to say “this year is our shot”.

 

Then we are better equipped to handle those failures because we have a legitimate ace.

 

If they all sucks, we'll have to start the rebuild again anyway (which will take a minimum of two years to decide) and the sixth year won't make a bit of difference during the rebuild.

[DaveW]

 

Given the lack of SP FA signings, are we seeing implicit or explicit collusion?

Implicit without a doubt.

Enjoy baseball while you can, there will be some nasty labor disputes in a couple years.

[Thrylos]

I would tend to venture that Darvish's 6th year could not be as bad as Hughes' third, fourth, fifth, or sixth (2016,17,18,19.)

 

They can drop down the AAV by 10% and add that 6th year.   That would add a total of 50% of the original AAV to the total contract, so it would be like paying for 8% more than the original offer

Edited February 9, 2018 by Thrylos

[DaveW]

 

I would tend to venture that Darvish's 6th year could not be as bad as Hughes' third, fourth, fifth, or sixth (2016,17,18,19.)

 

They can drop down the AAV by 10% and add that 6th year.   That would add a total of 50% of the original AAV to the total contract, so it would be like paying for 8% more than the original offer

No kidding. 

The Twins hand out extra years to #4/#5 type pitchers like candy seemingly, yet when it comes to an ace they get stingy?

Also with a 6th year you can pay him 'less' IMO those first 5 years as well.

Let's say YU is looking for $25 mil a year for 5 years, but would settle for $22 mil a year for 6 years.

6/132 seems like a fair deal for all sides.


 

[sthpstm]

 

I’m not sure I agree with the almost presumed assesment that “this is the time”. Still an awful lot of uncertainty on the roster IMO. Which Byron Buxton will show up this year? Will Kepler hit LHP? Is Rosario really what he was last year? Will Sano stay healthy? Will he be suspended for a large chunk of time? Will Berrios remain consistent? What about after him? Not much there, even with a Darvish. A two man rotation might get it done in the playoffs, but you have to get there first. Even with Darvish, the opening day # 3 had a 5 plus ERA the last two years. Still bullpen questions. Plenty of new faces. How will it all shake out? Awful lot of pressure on Hildenberger and Rogers, two still extremely green relievers.

Say the Twins get Darvish but it turns out Sano is on the DL more than he plays the next 5 years, Kepler never hits LHP, Rosario and Buxton slide back. Now you have a great ace on an otherwise lousy team. Still a lot of unknowns I think to say “this year is our shot”.

I get all of those arguments and I was on this side until the past couple of weeks.

The Twins just simply don't get a lot of good opportunities to get this type of a pitcher. I'd rather see them get him in a year where they are still developing than wait a year or two when the market is flooded with more teams competing for this type of a pitcher. Next year and after, the big spenders will be back and instead of getting a good pitcher at fair value they'd have to outbid maybe the Dodgers, the Yankees, the Cubs, the Red Sox, etc. and other mystery teams (Braves, Padres, etc.) that are starting to take off with cheap players and willing to spend.

[DaveW]

If you wait for the 'perfect time' to go all in, it likely will never come.

At least go for it and give your fans some hope, because as the team is constructed today we have zero shot in the playoffs.