Article: A Central Of Historic Proportions

[Ted Schwerzler]

Each of the past two years, I've found myself thinking that the AL Central would fail to produce both a 90 game winner and a 90 game loser. Obviously at this point, we know that to be incorrect. While the Indians have held the crown in recent memory, the Twins, Tigers and White Sox have found themselves in the division's doldrums. Looking at 2018 though, the AL Central could produce a result we haven't seen for over 25 years.As Nick Nelson wrote recently, windows are currently open for the Minnesota Twins. Only the Cleveland Indians present a significant challenge within the division, and the three other teams are genuinely up a creek without a paddle. Kansas City is attempting to hang on despite no real farm, the Tigers are both old and bad, and the White Sox have a loaded system not ready to bear fruit. For the year ahead, that makes the division look like a split between two options.

 

If both the Indians and the Twins are going for it, the bottom three could find themselves chasing for the number one overall pick in the 2019 Major League Baseball draft. Considering the boost both Detroit and Kansas City need in terms of prospects, landing a stud at 1/1 could be more than appealing. The game as a whole has trended towards a tank philosophy in that the have-nots simply look for the quickest route to add an influx of controllable talent.

 

Getting back to the historical feat referenced earlier, the landscape of the division could hand us just that. Since 2013, the AL Central has not seen at least two teams win 90 games, with another two losing that many. That isn't long ago; but Minnesota being one of the 90 game winners in that scenario hasn't taken place since 1992. At that time, the AL Central wasn't yet constructed, and the hometown nine were coming off of a World Series-winning campaign. They teamed up with the Oakland Athletics to surpass the 90 win plateau, while the California Angels, Royals and Seattle Mariners all found themselves losing at least 90 tilts.

 

Sure, it's fair to note that at that time in history the West division was home to seven different franchises. With greater room for error, the divisional landscape wasn't as tight as the current five team makeup forces it to be. Even with that in mind, the opportunity for history to repeat itself seems rather ripe.

 

Despite losing key pieces Carlos Santana and Bryan Shaw, it's hard to suggest that Cleveland isn't the front runner out of the gate. No one has challenged them of late, and until they're knocked off, the top dog position remains settled. Minnesota bounced back from a growing year endured by a young core during 2016 to make the postseason a year ago. With that experience under their belt, they should be expected to take yet another step forward. I'd imagine projection systems will peg them for something like .500, but that represents a step up from a season ago, and probably doesn't accurately account for what Kansas City, Chicago and Detroit will be putting out there for the better half of the season.

 

It's more than apparent that Minnesota has a perfect storm brewing in their favor. Not only has the emergence of long-awaited prospects come and gone, but the divisional landscape has also begun to shift in their favor. What was a Wild Card team a year ago could legitimately be looking at a better path to the postseason through their own division. When the dust settles, expecting a significant distance between the top and bottom is hardly impossible to fathom.

 

With so many players left unsigned, I'm not yet ready to put predictions on the division by team, but it seems clear to me that not all five of these organizations are created equal right now. Minnesota has an opportunity to be among the in- crowd with 90 wins, and they could end up looking behind them to see a trio of teams racing the opposite way. Maybe this ends up like the previous years of 90 wins and losses predictions, but it sure seems to be trending in the direction of history, 25 years in the making, repeating itself.

 

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[beckmt]

White Sox are the only team that could be below .500 and not lose 90.  Twins have a chance with this division to win between 45 - 50 of the games played in the Central.  That is a very good base and with a couple of east teams maybe tanking after June it will depend on when and where we play the other teams.  Yes with a major pitching upgrade this team should win 90.  Just worried that without it we may win 85 - 87 and be on the outside looking in and wasting a year of our talent.

[Brandon]

We could have 2 100 game winners and losers as well.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

White Sox are the only team that could be below .500 and not lose 90. Twins have a chance with this division to win between 45 - 50 of the games played in the Central. That is a very good base and with a couple of east teams maybe tanking after June it will depend on when and where we play the other teams. Yes with a major pitching upgrade this team should win 90. Just worried that without it we may win 85 - 87 and be on the outside looking in and wasting a year of our talent.

agreed, the AL West and East have similar but not so pronounced disparity as well. With a couple injuries, East and West teams looking better right now, than the Tigers and Royals, could also compete for the bottom.

 

I’m just not sure 90 games won guarantees an AL wildcard

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

We could have 2 100 game winners and losers as well.

I'd be pretty shocked if the Twins win 100

[notoriousgod71]

 

I'd be pretty shocked if the Twins win 100

 

I'd be shocked if they won 85 again.

[mikelink45]

Good speculation, but too early.  I think we can safely put Detroit in the doldrums, after all they hired a manager who specializes in big loss teams, but Chicago could surprise and maybe KC will do something yet.  

 

130 FA unsigned, spring training ahead, rookies can still surprise, injuries can upset plans, and trades can reset teams.  I agree that we look really good right now and I do think that Cleveland is substantially injured by the events so far, but, as fun as it is, I cannot project anything yet. 

[Respy]

The Twins and Indians should lead the division this year.  I think the Royals will be awful.  The Tigers might manage to be average.  I'd say watch out for the White Sox in the 2nd half of the year, especially after they bring up Kopech and Jiménez.  Moncada has the chance to be a monster this year.  Giolito is very good.  Rodon should be good when he returns if he's healthy.

[Doctor Wu]

The White Sox could indeed be the surprise team this year, at least one that could play .500 ball. I don't think they are ready for the playoffs by any means, but I don't think they'll be quite as bad as they were last year. I still can't figure out what's going to happen in Detroit. My guess is that they are cellar dwellers this year, but hey, it's baseball and anything can happen. Which is as it should be!

[Doomtints]

I don't see it. The Central will probably be the mediocre division that it always is. In the AL, most of the capital is in the East, and the West is always interesting down the stretch.

[MN_ExPat]

 

The Twins and Indians should lead the division this year.  I think the Royals will be awful.  The Tigers might manage to be average.  I'd say watch out for the White Sox in the 2nd half of the year, especially after they bring up Kopech and Jiménez.  Moncada has the chance to be a monster this year.  Giolito is very good.  Rodon should be good when he returns if he's healthy.

Excellent point.   I too agree that Chicago will most likely be far scrappier than projected, but at the same time the team is so green that I can't help but feel they will wear down considerably as the season progresses.

[Darius]

The central will be pretty bad. The Indians should be solid again. With that rotation, barring injury, not much question there.

 

The Twins will have a hard time replicating what was done last year. Santana surely won't be as good as he was during the first half. The bullpen is improved slightly, but still not a lockdown pen by any means. They probably won't get the insane streaks simultaneously (Roasario, Buxton, Dozier, and Polanco), and who knows what's happening with Sano.

 

I'm anticipating fewer wins. I also anticipate more competition for that second wildcard spot. One of the two will come out of the east for sure (with Boston and New York). The second will almost certainly come out of the west (with Houston, an improved LA squad with a healthy Trout, and Seattle).

 

As it stands now, I find it difficult to see it shaking out any differently. I'm not sure anything short of signing Darvish could turn the tables to the Twins favor.

[Wookiee of the Year]

 

I'd be shocked if they won 85 again.

Really? In the second half, with 412 runs scored to 325 runs allowed, the Twins played at a 100-win pace by Pythagorean Record. That doesn't mean they'll win 100 games in 2018, but I certainly expect them to clear 85 wins.

[Mr. Brooks]

Really? In the second half, with 412 runs scored to 325 runs allowed, the Twins played at a 100-win pace by Pythagorean Record. That doesn't mean they'll win 100 games in 2018, but I certainly expect them to clear 85 wins.

What was their first half pythag?

[Wookiee of the Year]

 

What was their first half pythag?

Bad--a full-season pace of 70-92. How much that matters depends on whether you think the second half surges from players like Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario represented young guys developing vs. guys punching way above their weight.

[Thrylos]

150+ Free agents have yet to sign.  Add 4-5 decent ones to any of the 3 teams that are "supposedly lagging" and/or have 2-3 of the WSux youngsters have break through seasons, and things change.

 

I'd wait to see what happens before April, and then they will have to play the games...

Edited February 3, 2018 by Thrylos

[notoriousgod71]

 

Really? In the second half, with 412 runs scored to 325 runs allowed, the Twins played at a 100-win pace by Pythagorean Record. That doesn't mean they'll win 100 games in 2018, but I certainly expect them to clear 85 wins.

 

 

What was their actual record in the second half?

 

 

[jimmer]

 

What was their actual record in the second half?

They had a .541 winning % in the 2nd half.  A seasonal .541 winning % is like 87 or 88 wins.

Edited February 3, 2018 by jimmer

[Mr. Brooks]

Bad--a full-season pace of 70-92. How much that matters depends on whether you think the second half surges from players like Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario represented young guys developing vs. guys punching way above their weight.

I wouldn't expect a full season output to match what those 3 did in the second half, no. Except maybe Buxton, maybe.

 

I also don't expect Gibson to match his second half performance either.

Edited February 3, 2018 by Mr. Brooks

[JustinCB]

We could have 2 100 game winners and losers as well.

Twins ain't winning 100

[Platoon]

Bad--a full-season pace of 70-92. How much that matters depends on whether you think the second half surges from players like Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario represented young guys developing vs. guys punching way above their weight.

Or if the second half was played against mostly teams with subpar records. I know you have to play em sometime, but IIRC the schedule ended up tilted that way.

[Nine of twelve]

Considering the boost both Detroit and Kansas City need in terms of prospects, landing a stud at 1/1 could be more than appealing. The game as a whole has trended towards a tank philosophy in that the have-nots simply look for the quickest route to add an influx of controllable talent.

I don't think tanking for the first pick in the baseball draft is really worth it. Basketball, yes. Football and hockey, probably. Baseball, no. You can certainly wind up with a top-flight player like the Nationals did two years in a row with Strasburg and Harper. But as this list will show, it's also very easy to select a journeyman or worse.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_Major_League_Baseball_draft_picks

[Nine of twelve]

I’m just not sure 90 games won guarantees an AL wildcard

In the six years of the two-wild-card format the number of wins for the second AL team have been 93, 92, 88, 86, 89, 85. I think 90 could do it because teams from other divisions will play more difficult schedules than Cleveland and Minnesota.

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

150+ Free agents have yet to sign.  Add 4-5 decent ones to any of the 3 teams that are "supposedly lagging" and/or have 2-3 of the WSux youngsters have break through seasons, and things change.

 

I'd wait to see what happens before April, and then they will have to play the games...

The White Sox have added guys they can flip, and while the Royals may add Hosmer, they have no business competing. The Tigers have already begun to sell off, what reason would they have to add a competitive FA?

[Ted Schwerzler]

 

I don't think tanking for the first pick in the baseball draft is really worth it. Basketball, yes. Football and hockey, probably. Baseball, no. You can certainly wind up with a top-flight player like the Nationals did two years in a row with Strasburg and Harper. But as this list will show, it's also very easy to select a journeyman or worse.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_Major_League_Baseball_draft_picks

I'd agree to a certain extent. The first pick in baseball is never going to yield the results it does in football or basketball. What it does do for bad teams though, is (if you have a decent scouting process) provide an influx to what is likely a bad farm. The Royals and Tigers, or teams like them, could use all of the young controllable talent they can find.

[mikelink45]

I was reading Fangraphs today and thought this article was pertinent to this Article - https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/here-are-the-complete-five-year-win-forecasts/ "The Royals are tied for seventh in baseball in wins over the past five years, but, over the next five years, they’re ranked 28th, between the Orioles and Tigers."

[Richie the Rally Goat]

In the six years of the two-wild-card format the number of wins for the second AL team have been 93, 92, 88, 86, 89, 85. I think 90 could do it because teams from other divisions will play more difficult schedules than Cleveland and Minnesota.

”could” doesn’t guarantee anything.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think the White Sox are going to surprise, as much as that pains me to say. I think they'll bounce to 72+ wins.

 

I also think the Twins are going to surprise, and challenge Cleveland for the division.

 

The rest, meh, whatever. Kansas City is maybe a 73-74 win team if you squint. Detroit is... just bad.

[Nine of twelve]

I think the White Sox are going to surprise, as much as that pains me to say. I think they'll bounce to 72+ wins.

 

I also think the Twins are going to surprise, and challenge Cleveland for the division.

 

The rest, meh, whatever. Kansas City is maybe a 73-74 win team if you squint. Detroit is... just bad.

That means three 90-loss teams in the division. If that's the case the Twins should be able to hit 90 wins simply by playing .500 baseball outside the division.