Article: Why The Twins May Opt For Short-Term SP Commitment

[jud6312]

Arrieta is the least offensive to the senses, but giving up a high(ish) draft pick on a big 1-year contract isn't preferable.

 

Honestly, if these are the options out there after the top guys, I'd rather just roll the dice with Gonsalves/Romero/Jorge/May.

 

Guys like this, and in some cases these exact guys, will be available down the line either off the scrap heap or trade wire.

[HrbekRules]

 

Tillman does not excite me.  I'd much rather they get Cobb or Lynn than Tillman on a short deal.

I don't think Tillman should be the only signing.  If he is, then I'll be disappointed myself.  I'm thinking he could possibly be a good back end  starter, a 4 or 5.  Let him start the season, if he looks like he did last year, send him packing.

[bird]

 

There is a ton of money coming of the very dusty books. Even if two of the young guys are going to be legit they won't be right away. Look at the development of Berrios. It will take time to be a pitcher capable of winning in the playoffs. If a good deal is available there is no better time then now. That being said if Darvish is really going to get as many years as speculated even a non-banker might balk at that deal

 

I'm wondering if expectations regarding Berrios haven't spilled over the top. Find a front line starter, Mr. Falvey. If we suddenly find that our mystery FA and Berrios, Santana, Gibson, Mejia, May, Romero, Gonsalves, Slegers, Hughes, and Jorge are all lights out, then we have some unforeseen trade chips. Yay.

Edited February 2, 2018 by birdwatcher

[FormerMinnasotan]

If we do nothing and not sign one of the 4 free agent pitchers our off season is a failure imo. Look I am all for seeing what Gonsalves and Romero can do, but right now neither one is ready to legitimately contribute to rotation now. And if the Twins sign a pitcher like Chris Tillman or Jamie Garcia to me it’s a sign the Twins aren’t serious to make the playoffs this year. And we can hope Trevor May can be a solid piece of the rotation but even so he is far from a sure thing.

[Rosterman]

It will be interesting to see how the BIG FOUR pan out in free agency. Looking at the age and numbers...none of them is worth what they think. I would not go 5-7 years on Davish. I would not go more than 3 years and $36 million on Lynn or Cobb.Davish may be a power pitcher, but still...NO!

 

Is this the year we see one-year $25-30 million days across the board? 

 

Yes, the Twins do have the revenue. They have at least $50 million to spend and not hurt themselves. More if they actually do win games.

 

But I don't see any of the pitchers in question panning out longterm.

 

At least in 2018 we have Kyle Gibson pitching for a free agent contract, Ervin Santana pitching for a free agent contract or a one-year extension. You need someone else that is decent and hungry. Is Garcia the guy?

 

Or can the Twins still flip a trade?

[rdehring]

I expect that the front office is also looking hard at 2019.  Right now they have 7 potential starters who could be under contract.  That includes Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, Pineda, May, Hughes and Santana.  Of that group, Santana is a team option with a potential vesting clause that would guarantee it.

 

Could that group lead the Twins to a World Series?  Berrios is a potential #1 starter or even an ACE.  Will Santana continue pitching like 2017?  Did Gibson finally turn the corner?  Will May and Pineda return to top form following TJ surgery?  Lots of question with most needing to pan out to play deep into October.  

 

But this group doesn't include any of Gonsalves, Jorge or Romero.  Won't all of us be disappointed if at least one of that trio doesn't earn a spot in the 2019 starting rotation?  

 

Looking at 2019, it seems to support Nick's position that it may make sense to go all in on a reclamation project on a one year contract in 2018.  The only alternative would be if they can sign a #1 starter long-term.  And the only guy out there who fits that bill would be Darvish.  And in his case, you can't go over 4 or 5 years max. 

[Don Walcott]

 

Tillman does not excite me.  I'd much rather they get Cobb or Lynn than Tillman on a short deal.

Neither Cobb nor Lynn excite me.

[ChrisKnutson]

Eat Kemp’s contract and take SP prospect Yadier Alvarez instead of signing Darvish (cuz I’m losing hope). Then spend some on free agents like Wade Miley to start or relief (depending on ST) and then sign lefty killer utility man Danny Valencia.

 

If it’s too much to upgrade our pitching to where we want it, then make a juggernaut offensive (somewhat like the Astros). Both Kemp and Valencia would offer roster flexibility without the risk of poor at bats and both have hit lefties pretty well throughout their careers. Kemp would be worth it, if attached with a high level prospect, cause it’s not like he’s washed up yet.

 

 

[Teddy]

I like this idea so much better than signing Darvish for five (or *gulp* seven years). There's too many talented pitchers in the pipeline that deserve a look.

[HitInAPinch]

Tough call.  And, maybe not 

 

In the field, I believe the Twins are ready to complete.  In the starting rotation, I'd like to see some cleansing. And at least 2 new faces:  Arrieta on a "show me" type contract (1 yr. + 2nd guarantee based on 1st yr. performance ) and a similar contracts for 1 or 2 others (Garcia and Tillman?? ).   

 

Need some space?  Sure, got 3 in mind:  Hughes, Gibson, May.  Buy out contracts where needed, trade if possible ( yeah, made myself laugh on that one )  but the truth is, only one has a chance of being a .500 pitcher.  Hughes latest injury is probably a career ender, May still has that lower back problem and Gibson has never really been more than staff filler with a 5 ERA that past 2 years.

 

And then there's Ervin.  Last year was fantastic.  What's next?

Getting a reasonable return on a Dozier trade would be very helpful.

[twinsguy14]

...Maybe we should be scouting the California Penal League for a new pitcher too?... Awesome idea. All that cost Cleveland was a haircut and some glasses and they won it all!! Lol

[bobs]

  Finally, an article on here that completely sums up what I've been thinking and saying.  This FO has it's sights squarely on 2019 while still competing for the playoffs this year.  And I am all in.  So many questions still to be answered...does Sano stay at 3rd?  Does Dozier stay with the Twins (I hope so)?  Is Garver a quality #2 catcher?  Is Polanco really the answer at SS?  Will Kepler take the next step?  

  The bullpen now appears to be solid.  Other than Yu Darvish, I'm not convinced that the other names listed here will be any better (or even as good?) as Romero, Gonsalves, Trevor May....heck, Kyle Gibson.

  I'm all for increasing their depth with another starter who has had success in the AL, b/c we all know NL numbers don't translate to the AL.

  In my opinion, they need to be patient and answer these questions before deciding what and/or who they need to invest a multiple-year contract in.

[baumannmd]

A 7-year commitment for a 32 year-old who's only going to work 1/5 days? Oh, and he wants $175M? Anyone who still thinks signing Yu Darvish is a good idea for this team better have never said an ill-word about Joe Mauer or his contract. Darvish is a nightmare. I hope the front office realizes that and stays far away.

[cmoss84]

A few things here:

 

* I doubt anyone gives Darvish 7/175.

* People are waaay too hopeful on our young pup AAA and AA pitchers to make an impact this year.

* Don't people think we can do better than having Gibson as our #5?

* People are underestimating Lynn and Cobb, who are really solid 3's.

* I wouldn't mind signing Vargas or Tillman to a one year contract to be our #5, IF we also sign one of the top 4 FAs. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Why would Dozier stay if the front office does not add to the roster? It would be out of character after last year. Also, eSan sand Pineda are of the roster after 2019.... How do you plan to fill those spots?

 

People need to look at next year's list of free agents, and so themselves if any are better than Lynn or Cobb.... And they won't be cheaper....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A 7-year commitment for a 32 year-old who's only going to work 1/5 days? Oh, and he wants $175M?

I don't think he is asking for $175 mil yet -- the report Nick linked said he wanted something "closer" to 7/175 than the reported 5 year, ~$125 mil offers so far. That could just mean 6/150 or 6/160 (which is what MLBTR predicted at the beginning of the offseason, by the way), and perhaps invoking 7/175 makes 6/150 seem more reasonable.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If the front office has doubts about the value of Darvish, Arrietta, Cobb, and Lynn, then they should opt for a one-year guy with some chance of a rebound/turnaround season.

Well, if we take the front office at their word, they have maintained interest in Darvish all winter, even with offers apparently around 5/125. That suggests they don't have too many doubts about the value of Darvish -- and they probably have enough concerns about the state of our starting pitching that we need more than just a Tillman type.

 

Or, if we doubt their word, they have exaggerated their interest in Darvish for PR gain, but I hope not.

[nicksaviking]

 

A 7-year commitment for a 32 year-old who's only going to work 1/5 days? Oh, and he wants $175M? Anyone who still thinks signing Yu Darvish is a good idea for this team better have never said an ill-word about Joe Mauer or his contract. Darvish is a nightmare. I hope the front office realizes that and stays far away.

 

I don't see anyone who wants Darvish caterwauling about the Mauer deal. It doesn't and never has been a problem with payroll. 

 

Whatever deal Darvish gets this year is going to look like a bargain come next winter after the big clubs jump back into the deep end of free agency. Next year is going to usher in a new level of spending, if the Twins don't get Darvish now, they might as well just pour all their resources on developing an ace because they won't be able to compete for a front of the rotation arm again unless a salary cap is instituted. It's now or never. If it's never we're probably going to have to start over.

[Thrylos]

Here is what I see, and I suspect some of the Twins' brass does as well. 

Data:

 

Alex Cobb: 3.66 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 1.221 WHIP, 6.4 K/9,  2.91 K/BB
Lance Lynne (2017 vs AL): 4.25 ERA, 1.517 WHIP, 7 K/9, 1.64 K/BB 
Jake Arrieta (2017 vs AL) 3.38 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.90 K/BB

 

Kyle Gibson (2017 2nd Half) 3.76 ERA, 1.278 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.12 K/BB

 

Gibson's second half was as good, if not better than any of the other three's splits against the AL. 

 

Who in the right mind would pay Gibson what they are asking for, plus surrender a draft pick?  I wouldn't.

 

They might go the short term contract situation, but not with those 3, since a pick will be involved, but it is tough to see the logic behind signing a Jaime Garcia while they can probably get equal production (4.82 ERA, 4.87 FIP, 1.634 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 1.85 K/BB with the Yankees last season) with a rotation of Gonsalves/Romero/Jorge/Enns in the last starter post until someone sticks or May is ready.  

 

May's last stint at starting was pretty good (4.43 ERA, 1.380 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 4.06 K/BB, as a starter in 2015) and he should be improving from that. 

The Garcia's and Tillman's of the world can't touch this...

[Matthew Lenz]

"Anything approaching those figures would be unrealistic, not to mention irresponsible, for Minnesota to offer."

 

I know why we think it's unrealistic.  That would more than triple our top FA contract in franchise history.

 

I don't know why it's irresponsible though.  The Pohlad's have the money and there is no cap so it wouldn't limit us in the future.

 

I'll use the example I used in your article "open windows" from last week.  The Pujols contract for the Angels looks bad.  In fact, pretty much every big contract is not worth it from a production/dollar stand point.  That said, I am going to assume that Art Moreno/LAA hasn't lost any value.  Quite the contrary, I would assume that the value of the organization has still increased in that time.  So I will pose my question again.  When you're worth $3.8 billion and have no cap limit...why is irresponsible?  Where is the risk?

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Imagine landing Darvish on a 6 year deal and Arrieta on a 1 year make good... not likely, but not impossible in this market

[Walter's Whites]

I understand the top 4 are risky, but now is the time to take a risk with contracts coming off the books soon. Let's be aggressive and go for something. At some point every front office has to take a risk.

[cmoss84]

 

Here is what I see, and I suspect some of the Twins' brass does as well. 

Data:

 

Alex Cobb: 3.66 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 1.221 WHIP, 6.4 K/9,  2.91 K/BB
Lance Lynne (2017 vs AL): 4.25 ERA, 1.517 WHIP, 7 K/9, 1.64 K/BB 
Jake Arrieta (2017 vs AL) 3.38 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.90 K/BB

 

Kyle Gibson (2017 2nd Half) 3.76 ERA, 1.278 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.12 K/BB

 

Gibson's second half was as good, if not better than any of the other three's splits against the AL. 

 

Who in the right mind would pay Gibson what they are asking for, plus surrender a draft pick?  I wouldn't.

 

They might go the short term contract situation, but not with those 3, since a pick will be involved, but it is tough to see the logic behind signing a Jaime Garcia while they can probably get equal production (4.82 ERA, 4.87 FIP, 1.634 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 1.85 K/BB with the Yankees last season) with a rotation of Gonsalves/Romero/Jorge/Enns in the last starter post until someone sticks or May is ready.  

 

May's last stint at starting was pretty good (4.43 ERA, 1.380 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 4.06 K/BB, as a starter in 2015) and he should be improving from that. 

The Garcia's and Tillman's of the world can't touch this...

Are you really saying you would want Gibson over Lynn, Cobb or Arrieta for this year and beyond?

[ashbury]

Kyle Gibson (2017 2nd Half)

Do Cobb, Lynn and Arrieta get to play this first-half/second-half game? Because, just eyeballing br-com's splits for them quickly, all three of these gentlemen had better second halves too.

[Thrylos]

 

Are you really saying you would want Gibson over Lynn, Cobb or Arrieta for this year and beyond?

 

This is a 2018 discussion.

 

Gibson is a free agent after this season.   So (hopefully) will be Santana

 

There are a lot of better pitchers out there who will be a free agent after this season or might be available in a trade.   Also Romero and Gonsalves might be lights out in 2018.  Who knows.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Do Cobb, Lynn and Arrieta get to play this first-half/second-half game? Because, just eyeballing br-com's splits for them quickly, all three of these gentlemen had better second halves too.

 

Gibson made serious changes in second half, which paid of.  Not sure whether any of those gentlemen did or not sure what their second half records were against the AL   Feel free to provide data if so inclined

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm starting to wonder if the best thing for Arrieta might be a one year, make good deal (albeit at a very high number, like $25m). His fastball velocity was down in 2017 and his numbers reflected it.

 

I'd pay through the nose to get one year of an Arrieta who's trying to prove that he's worth a 3-4 year deal, even though I'm not much of an Arrieta fan really.

[ashbury]

Gibson made serious changes in second half, which paid of.  Not sure whether any of those gentlemen did or not sure what their second half records were against the AL   Feel free to provide data if so inclined

Pitchers make changes all the time. I am not sold on Gibson having turned any corner; he's turned corners before, only to disappoint us, and somehow the corner got un-turned in his final three starts in 2017. I'm rooting for Kyle, just not counting on him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Are you really saying you would want Gibson over Lynn, Cobb or Arrieta for this year and beyond?

Honestly, I'm now kinda leaning toward avoiding a Lynn or Cobb deal at this point (unless they can be had for a steal). I don't want either one on a four year deal. Two years? Sure, but that's unlikely to happen.

 

Arrieta is a question mark but his upside is waaaaaayyy higher than either of those guys.

 

If it came down to Gibson or Cobb/Lynn, I may roll with Gibson (knowing that May is in the mix, as are Gonsalves and Romero).

[Tomj14]

2018 free agents starting pitchers, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Matt Harvey, Gio Gonzalez, Patrick Corbin, Drew Pomeranz, Garrett Richards, Drew Smyly, Brandon McCarthy

 

from here https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/08/21/mlb-2018-free-agent-class-bryce-harper-manny-machado/585368001/

 

Kershaw is 31 and I don't see us getting him, Price is 34. I don't like that list any better than the ones available now. Trading seems to be the only way to get a top rotation guy, unless by magic one of our minor league pitchers does it in less than 1 year.