They have to do something. I'm not sure if Archer will cost as much as some are suggesting here, but he's going to be pricey. I've seen enough on Cole's cost that I'm not too excited about that option either given that his performance has never matched his reputation. I'd rather spend and get Darvish. I'd certainly trade for Archer for the right price, but if it's going to cost what's suggested here, I'd pass.

 

They have to do something. I'm not sure if Archer will cost as much as some are suggesting here, but he's going to be pricey. I've seen enough on Cole's cost that I'm not too excited about that option either given that his performance has never matched his reputation. I'd rather spend and get Darvish. I'd certainly trade for Archer for the right price, but if it's going to cost what's suggested here, I'd pass.

as Mr Brooks said, they need 2 rotation pieces, one immediate front of the rotation like Darvish that is clearly prioritized by the FO, and another 2-3 starter type. It’s not clear yet by the FO’s posture, but I doubt the FO has the budget available to sign Darvish (or maybe Arrieta) AND sign a second tier Cobb/Lynn and below that tier in free agency, it doesn’t clearly improve over Mejia/Gibson or compete with Santana

 

Erv is in the twighlight of his career, last year was a career year for him. It’s not realistic to expect the same in 18. I expect him to regress a bit and get passed up by an improving Berrios in 18... so that second acquisition should hopefully push a healthy and realativly effective Erv to 4th

Not too high on Odorizzi and Archer will cost way too much.  Unless there's a team out there somewhere looking to dump some salary, I think the best options are still in free agency.  Lots of big names still available.

I never thought I would say this but I am now ready to consider Sano in a trade for good starting pitching. I'm afraid he is going to end up being Chris Carter. Problem is if you are wrong on that premise the cost of the mistake is really high. But they have to add pitching to this young core and Sano is now the one I trust the least.

 

 

 

 

If Falvine "go big" and make the splash, the glut of prospects it would take leaves the franchise with little potential for future growth or replacement of the current "core" players.    Maybe this is the direction they might wish to go, but I seriously have my doubts.   Our beloved Twins would bleed mightily to gain this ground.

 

Another thread mentions how many Twins prospects are rated B- or better by Sickels.  I don't remember the exact number (21?), but it might be the perfect time for the Twins to cash in some quantity for quality.  They lost 2 prospects in Rule 5 this year, that might be a recurring event if the system is truly that deep.  

My thought would still be hope we sign Darvish and wait till the deadline. If we're contenders then ship out some of the farm for a starter or reliever. But if we can get Darvish then let's hope we get to July with a good record then go hunting for a good pitcher.

 

Another thread mentions how many Twins prospects are rated B- or better by Sickels.  I don't remember the exact number (21?), but it might be the perfect time for the Twins to cash in some quantity for quality.  They lost 2 prospects in Rule 5 this year, that might be a recurring event if the system is truly that deep.  

 

I like this post tho. We have a lot of prospects that could be major leaguers some day and there's won't be room for all of em on our roster. Hope we contend this year and the prospects take another step then move some for a pitcher.

Sickels said there was a huge amount of C+ in the system starting around 13. The C+ really don’t have a lot of value now towards adding a good starting pitcher.

 

Hopefully several of the C+ prospects have a really good first half and they will be in a better position to make mid season trades. It is incredibly critical that they develop the talent they have in the minors better than most. It is the only route to sustained success.

 

Another thread mentions how many Twins prospects are rated B- or better by Sickels.  I don't remember the exact number (21?), but it might be the perfect time for the Twins to cash in some quantity for quality.  They lost 2 prospects in Rule 5 this year, that might be a recurring event if the system is truly that deep.  

Very good point and won't disagree with you at all.   Just concerned that the price might be too high.

If the price is always going to be “too high” why aren’t the Twins sellers? Maybe we could unload Sano, Dozier, Santana, and build around Kepler, Rosario, Barrios, and Buxton?

 

You are either buyers or sellers. Just signing half measures coming off major arm surgeries is not a strategy that makes any sense.

A good framework for valuing prospects.

 

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

 

Here’s what fangraphs did with it

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-dream-up-a-michael-fulmer-trade/

 

 

Here’s what a Brewers blog 216 stitches did with it. I like the Brewers comp to the Twins.

 

https://216stitches.org/2017/12/15/chris-archer-milwaukee-brewers-trade/

 

 

How does this shape possible trade scenarios? I think Gordon, Romero and Granite plus, might get it done.

Prospects are overrated and the Twins can't wait any longer to finish the rebuild. Every year that you hold and wait equals one more year that Buxton, Sano and the young core inches closer to FA.

 

The cost would be high (Lewis plus 1-2 other top 5 prospects) but you get a 10+K/9 and <3 BB/9 (avg 200 IP for 4 seasons) 29 yr old on a great contract (locked up for 4 years for peanuts). Getting Archer and his low contract would allow the Twins to go after another sort of expensive FA or really break the bank and sign Darvish also.

What does a deal for Colome look like? Can Twins start with Gordon and Stewart? Maybe some lotto tickets or international money?

Here’s what a Brewers blog 216 stitches did with it. I like the Brewers comp to the Twins.

 

https://216stitches.org/2017/12/15/chris-archer-milwaukee-brewers-trade/

 

 

How does this shape possible trade scenarios? I think Gordon, Romero and Granite plus, might get it done.

That blog says in general terms that it should take "something like a top 25 hitting prospect, a top 50 hitting prospect and a back end of the top 100 pitcher". And then they go and fudge that estimate by leading off their trade package with Keon Broxton, who is none of those things.

 

And unfortunately, your Twins version fudges it further. Gordon is not a top 25 hitting prospect after his second half 2017, and Granite is nowhere near a top 50 hitting prospect.

 

Tampa has no urgency to trade Archer. There is no way they bother pulling the trigger on a Twins deal that doesn't at least include one of Lewis, Berrios, or Buxton. Thus a deal is unlikely now.