I'm obviously still assuming we'll sign/trade for another starter this offseason. If we can do that and acquire one reliever I think it's been a good offseason. If we get one of Archer, Stroman, or Cole for a reasonable trade or sign one of the top 4 starters and are able to get kintzler, Rodney, Cishek or a guy like that I'll be happy.

 

I'd be ecstatic!

 

Yeah, but after signing Darvish, signing/trading for another reliever/starter at another $8-15 M a year for a multi-year contract, extending Dozier and Mauer, and extensions for Buxton, and one or two more of our pre-arb guys, that $21 M number is going to come way way up. It would be nice to have enough flexibility next offseason to take stock of where we are, and then spend accordingly, rather than trying to predict where we will be next offseason right now and spending $10 million. Yes, this deal has upside if he recovers completely and quickly from TJ, but that's a HUGE if.

 

I'm okay with not extending Dozier or Mauer if the FO feels money might becomes an issue a few years down the road when Rosario, Sano and Buxton approach free agency, especially if that means we get Darvish or Lynn instead.

Edited December 13, 20178 yr by laloesch

cannot really complain here. Very little risk to go with what is potentially a nice reward. I don't see much in 2018 for this though... so I really hope it isn't it.

I like this move. It's all contingent on Pineda recovering, but if he does, he brings some badly needed strikeout ability in the rotation and, as mentioned earlier, getting out of Yankee Stadium should do his HR/9 wonders. 

 

There's still plenty to be done for 2018, of course. I've heard the Twins are targeting Steve Cishek, and that'd be a great signing if it happened. 

If this turns out to be the "oh, and btw, in addition to all THAT" move, I love it.

 

 

 

There's still plenty to be done for 2018, of course. I've heard the Twins are targeting Steve Cishek, and that'd be a great signing if it happened. 

 

Saw this on MLBTR.... love that they are talking. Nice sexy K, BB, and WHIP rates. Not sure how hard he throws, but this the type of reliever I'd like to see join the org.

 

Of course. You are probably familiar with ERA+, OPS+, wRC+, etc., where values under 100 are below average (negative value) players.

 

For a team to make the playoffs, teams want as many above average players as possible. Replacement value (WAR) is worthless. Look at WAA instead.

 

Your starting assumption is that average provides zero value. That's debatable. As others have said, below average (according to one metric) can still provide value.

 

Of course. You are probably familiar with ERA+, OPS+, wRC+, etc., where values under 100 are below average (negative value) players.

 

For a team to make the playoffs, teams want as many above average players as possible. Replacement value (WAR) is worthless. Look at WAA instead.

Except for the Lake Wobegon Whippets where "all the pitchers are above average."

A large amount of money and higher risk by typical "Twins" standards.  However, in the grand scheme of MLB market and money, it's still a modest amount, and modest risk. This move signifies to me that the Twins are willing spend some money, and might spend a little more money soon on a bigger puzzle piece.  Keep it up!  

 

Not a bad signing, but this doesn't address any area of need for 2018.  Unless they come away from the winter meetings with Archer, Cole, or a badass reliever one would have to call the winter meetings this year a loss.

So we won't win the Winter Meeting Trophy?

A guy with two major injuries who’s been kind of an odd duck? Sure, if everything works out, he could be a 3 WAR pitcher next year, but it would be good to have at least three starters of whom you can say he’d be a 4+ WAR pitcher, which would make Pineda a #4 or #5 on a playoff team. Not exciting.

It looks like the Twins  have signed  a 10 million dollar reliever to pitch one year in 2019, with no options after 2019...his first year back from Tommy John surgery. I'm not impressed.

 

Yeah, but after signing Darvish, signing/trading for another reliever/starter at another $8-15 M a year for a multi-year contract, extending Dozier and Mauer, and extensions for Buxton, and one or two more of our pre-arb guys, that $21 M number is going to come way way up. It would be nice to have enough flexibility next offseason to take stock of where we are, and then spend accordingly, rather than trying to predict where we will be next offseason right now and spending $10 million. Yes, this deal has upside if he recovers completely and quickly from TJ, but that's a HUGE if.

 

This assumes you can't trade a healthy Pineda. If the Twins have seven quality starters and no room for Pineda, they should be able to at the least get another team to take on that salary (and almost certainly get a piece or two back).

 

Only way this is a bad signing is if he can't come back from TJ. But you have to take risks. Low cost, high upside move.

In essence they are paying him $10 million for the 2019 season if he doesn't pitch in 2018. Seems like a lot for a pitcher coming off Tommy John and may end up in the bullpen. With that in mind then we can assume they will be willing to spend even more for a pitcher that can actually pitch in 2018.... Right?

I'm a bit tepid on this signing.

 

It looks like the Twins  have signed  a 10 million dollar reliever to pitch one year in 2019, with no options after 2019...his first year back from Tommy John surgery. I'm not impressed.

 

Are you suggesting they should have signed him to a longer contract?

 

This kind of move isn't unprecedented. Tyson Ross. Kris Medlen. Drew Smyly. Etc.

I'm a little surprised by the negative opinions on this signing.

 

Worse case scenario: we lit $10M on fire. MLB teams do that all the time.

 

Median scenario: he comes back in Aug and pitches from the bullpen the rest of the year. 2019 he pitches like a good #4 starter, which, at $8M, is an underpay. He becomes a free agent and we thank him for his time here.

 

Really Good Scenario: Same as above but he pitches like a 2/3, which $8M is a severe underpay, we extend him a QO and are happy if we get him for 1/18, or he declines and we get the 35th pick in the 2020 draft for the trouble.

Other scenarios include him being a good bullpen arm for 1.25 years or flipping him at the 2019 deadline.

 

Neither is wonderful or terrible.

 

I'm a little surprised by the negative opinions on this signing.

Worse case scenario: we lit $10M on fire. MLB teams do that all the time.

Median scenario: he comes back in Aug and pitches from the bullpen the rest of the year. 2019 he pitches like a good #4 starter, which, at $8M, is an underpay. He becomes a free agent and we thank him for his time here.

Really Good Scenario: Same as above but he pitches like a 2/3, which $8M is a severe underpay, we extend him a QO and are happy if we get him for 1/18, or he declines and we get the 35th pick in the 2020 draft for the trouble.

You'll find a lot more uncritical praise than unwarranted criticism here with this move!

Edited December 14, 20178 yr by Hosken Bombo Disco

Or, they don't spend as much next year on good players, in the hope he is good, and he's not. We have entire threads on not spending six million on a relief pitcher, let alone eight .. Let's hope the team isn't as conservative with it's money as many here think they should be.

Just for the sake of argument, if Pineda had not blown out his arm and his early year stats projected out the whole year...

 

A) what would he rank in terms of free agent starting pitchers

 

B.) what kind of contract would he be looking at getting?

Edited December 14, 20178 yr by amjgt

Obviously a good signing. 

When these moves work out, people freak out about why the Twins don't make these kind of moves.   When the Twins make these kind of moves, people freak out about the risk they won't work out.

Edited December 14, 20178 yr by PseudoSABR

 

Are you suggesting they should have signed him to a longer contract?

 

This kind of move isn't unprecedented. Tyson Ross. Kris Medlen. Drew Smyly. Etc.

I'm saying the first year (2 million dollars plus the cost of training facilities and trainers, etc.) will yield  no 2018 benefit, I have no stats to prove this, but it is my belief that many pitchers are cautious, or cautiously used, or just not ready. the first year back after TJ surgery (8 million dollars more plus a roster spot) which will be for 2019, Then  the Twins must bid him good-bye, no matter whether he is a huge successor a huge disappointment. However if the Twins had a team option then the Twins would have a choice of keeping him if he should become a huge success in 2019 (which we all hope will happen) and  he will merit pitching for the Twins in 2020, or letting him go with little or no buy out ,if his performance in 2019 is not worth a spot on the team.

I'm saying the first year (2 million dollars plus the cost of training facilities and trainers, etc.) will yield no 2018 benefit, I have no stats to prove this, but it is my belief that many pitchers are cautious, or cautiously used, or just not ready. the first year back after TJ surgery (8 million dollars more plus a roster spot) which will be for 2019, Then the Twins must bid him good-bye, no matter whether he is a huge successor a huge disappointment. However if the Twins had a team option then the Twins would have a choice of keeping him if he should become a huge success in 2019 (which we all hope will happen) and he will merit pitching for the Twins in 2020, or letting him go with little or no buy out ,if his performance in 2019 is not worth a spot on the team.

I wouldn't say no 2018 benefit. He should be able to contribute by August.

Pitchers are cautious?

I'm saying the first year (2 million dollars plus the cost of training facilities and trainers, etc.) will yield no 2018 benefit, I have no stats to prove this, but it is my belief that many pitchers are cautious, or cautiously used, or just not ready. the first year back after TJ surgery (8 million dollars more plus a roster spot) which will be for 2019, Then the Twins must bid him good-bye, no matter whether he is a huge successor a huge disappointment. However if the Twins had a team option then the Twins would have a choice of keeping him if he should become a huge success in 2019 (which we all hope will happen) and he will merit pitching for the Twins in 2020, or letting him go with little or no buy out ,if his performance in 2019 is not worth a spot on the team.

I agree that a team option for 2020 would have been nice, but I don't think it's a mistake there isn't one. For all we know, that was a deal breaker for Piñeda. If he pitches well next year, they can offer him a QO and get a decent draft pick.

I'm saying the first year (2 million dollars plus the cost of training facilities and trainers, etc.) will yield no 2018 benefit, I have no stats to prove this, but it is my belief that many pitchers are cautious, or cautiously used, or just not ready. the first year back after TJ surgery (8 million dollars more plus a roster spot) which will be for 2019, Then the Twins must bid him good-bye, no matter whether he is a huge successor a huge disappointment. However if the Twins had a team option then the Twins would have a choice of keeping him if he should become a huge success in 2019 (which we all hope will happen) and he will merit pitching for the Twins in 2020, or letting him go with little or no buy out ,if his performance in 2019 is not worth a spot on the team.

Talking about the cost of trainers and training facilities makes us sound like a pathetically small market. That's the type of stuff that might go through the Marlins FO's minds, but should never ever even come up from good organizations

 

Or, they don't spend as much next year on good players, in the hope he is good, and he's not. We have entire threads on not spending six million on a relief pitcher, let alone eight .. Let's hope the team isn't as conservative with it's money as many here think they should be.

 

Which threads exactly are entire threads on not spending 6M on an RP? I'm legitimately curious. Look, I get that there people who don't want to do that, and that is fine. It's their right, and they are entitled to that opinion...

 

But it's statements like that, which are blatantly untrue, that just invite lots of needless bickering. Let's try and stick to actual talking points instead of stereotypical ones that ignore what everyone is saying... thanks.

 

Just for the sake of argument, if Pineda had not blown out his arm and his early year stats projected out the whole year...

A) what would he rank in terms of free agent starting pitchers

B.) what kind of contract would he be looking at getting?

Not sure what the answer to B is, but there's a good indication to the answer to A in this Fangraphs article from last December. 

 

Listed in a tier of top potential FA SPs is Darvish, Arrieta, Danny Duffy (who signed an extension) and Pineda. The next tier of depth guys included Lynn, Cobb, Chatwood and others. So it's a good guess Pineda would have been the third-ranked SP if healthy.