Article: Twins Sign RHP Michael Pineda

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

I love this move – une-fricking-quivocally

[Mike Sixel]

How would this hurt payroll flexibility?

There is an entire thread starting signing any relief pitcher for market rate is a bad idea.....

 

They have locked in the price of a good relief pitcher next year, on a guy that might not pitch this year.

 

And, I don't think it does, I was talking about all the posts and threads here worrying about spending any money, basically.

[clone52]

 

Passing along some stuff I already shared on Twitter ...

 

Michael Pineda last three seasons: 9.46 K/9, 1.98 BB/9. That 4.79 K:BB ratio ranked seventh among the 78 pitchers to log 400 IP in that time frame, trailing only Kershaw, Sale, Scherzer, Kluber, Bumgarner and Carrasco.

 

His overall numbers were far less impressive because he had the worst BABIP (.328) of that sample and the second-worst HR/FB rate (17.4%). He's given up a lot of home runs, but over his career he has a 1.6 HR/9 rate at Yankee Stadium and a 0.9 HR/9 rate everywhere else.

 

Great numbers.  Get him healthy, behind a solid defense and out of Yankee Stadium.

[clone52]

 

He has been a negative value pitcher for the past two years, and past 3 years as a whole, when compared to league average pitchers. Those are the numbers, there's nothing disingenuous there. In fact, it's disingenuous to have a narrative that is the opposite of the numbers, no?

 

So, half the pitchers in major league baseball are negative value?

[SF Twins Fan]

I really don't understand fans who are being negative about this signing. It's almost a certainty that the Twins will take out insurance on him because he's coming back from TJ surgery, which will basically make the cost zero if he doesn't ever fully recover.

 

He could very well be a relief pitcher for the Twins come September and into the playoffs if they make it there.  He'll be 14 months removed from surgery by September and then by the time the next season starts in April he'll be ~ 21 months removed from surgery. This signing isn't going to hurt the Twins in 2019 from going out and signing other players.

[prouster]

 

He has been a negative value pitcher for the past two years, and past 3 years as a whole, when compared to league average pitchers. Those are the numbers, there's nothing disingenuous there. In fact, it's disingenuous to have a narrative that is the opposite of the numbers, no?

 

That's just not true. Last year he was worth 1.1 fWAR and .7 bWAR in about half a season's worth of starts. 2011: 3.2 fWAR and 2.3 bWAR. 2012 & 2013: did not play. 2014: 2.2 fWAR & 2.7 bWAR. 2015: 3.5 fWAR & 1.7 bWAR. 2016: 3.2 fWAR & 1.2 bWAR.

 

For his career, he has an ERA+ of 101, almost exactly league average. Career FIP of 3.60 and career xFIP of 3.33.

 

Having an opinion is one thing, but it's simply false to say Piñeda has provided negative value. One could say he has been below average in certain areas, but there is indeed still some value in that.

Edited December 13, 2017 by prouster

[drjim]

 

Joe
12:35 Do you like the Smyly's or Pineda's 2/10 deal better from the team perspective?
Dave Cameron
12:35 Pineda
Would love to see what he looks like in relief when he gets back at end of this year.

 

I hadn't even thought of this part of the deal. He could be quite the weapon down the stretch.

[drjim]

 

There is an entire thread starting signing any relief pitcher for market rate is a bad idea.....

They have locked in the price of a good relief pitcher next year, on a guy that might not pitch this year.

And, I don't think it does, I was talking about all the posts and threads here worrying about spending any money, basically.

 

I figured that was worries about long contracts and being saddled with big contracts on declining players, but I could be wrong.

 

One year commitments of $8mil seem like they'd be ok.

[ashbury]

This move is almost like acquiring an arm at the trade deadline, except that the trade deadline is 1.5 years away and we have no clue what this team's needs will be in 1.5 years.

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that one of those needs will be "pitching". And if we're not in contention that year, someone else will have such a need.

[Mike Sixel]

I figured that was worries about long contracts and being saddled with big contracts on declining players, but I could be wrong.

 

One year commitments of $8mil seem like they'd be ok.

Not in the relief pitcher thread..... People are typing they'd rather only sign flyers than pay market rates. This is market rate for a relief pitcher.

 

I find it a fascinating signing. Really not what the old guard would do. Assuming it doesn't stop them from spending elsewhere, I think I like it.

[drjim]

 

Not in the relief pitcher thread..... People are typing they'd rather only sign flyers than pay market rates. This is market rate for a relief pitcher.

I find it a fascinating signing. Really not what the old guard would do. Assuming it doesn't stop them from spending elsewhere, I think I like it.

 

Isn't the primary point to be a starter next year? That was my assumption.

[Mike Sixel]

Isn't the primary point to be a starter next year? That was my assumption.

Probably.... Not sure what that has to do with tying up money or not. It's money. Already spent. On an injured player. I find it fascinating the response, given other threads. Nothing more or less. Like I said, I like it. But then, I think the Twins have plenty of money to spend.

[Doomtints]

 

So, half the pitchers in major league baseball are negative value?

 

Of course. You are probably familiar with ERA+, OPS+, wRC+, etc., where values under 100 are below average (negative value) players.

 

For a team to make the playoffs, teams want as many above average players as possible. Replacement value (WAR) is worthless. Look at WAA instead.

[Thrylos]

 

When the Yankees acquired him, they stashed him in the minors which seems strange. 

 

Before he threw a pitch for the Yankees he tore his labrum and had surgery.  Was out all of 2012 and in the minors in 2013.  In the DL with shoulder issues and short minor league rehab assignments in 2014 and 2015 and healthy finally in 2016 and 2017 until he got his elbow issue.  Velo went down after the shoulder surgery and close to 2011 last season.

 

They must think that the shoulder is fine to pull the trigger, but I see this more of a rink than the elbow.  On the other hand, given the fact that he got less than Swarzak $, he can be in the pen if it does not work out.

[Doomtints]

 

That's just not true. Last year he was worth 1.1 fWAR and .7 bWAR in about half a season's worth of starts. 

 

Except I'm talking about WAA and not WAR.  

 

WAR = the baseline, you never want a player below 0 WAR, but a player with positive WAR can still be a below average player.

WAA = the average player. Good players have a positive WAA. ****ty players can still have a positive WAR but will have a negative WAA.

Here is his WAA by year:

 

2011 - 0.6

2012-2013 - Minors

2014 - 2.0 (in a small sample size)

2015 - 0.2

2016 - -0.4

2017 - -0.1

From 2015 on, he has a WAA of -0.3.  That's a below average (minus) player. "Replacement level" means nothing, you want to field a team that is better than your competition (WAA) -- not better than the minors (WAR).

 

Edited December 13, 2017 by Doomtints

[notoriousgod71]

Again, I can't comprehend the mentality of some people.

 

We don't have any pitching, yet no pitcher on the market is good enough for this team.

 

It's unreal.

[nicksaviking]

There is an entire thread starting signing any relief pitcher for market rate is a bad idea.....

They have locked in the price of a good relief pitcher next year, on a guy that might not pitch this year.

And, I don't think it does, I was talking about all the posts and threads here worrying about spending any money, basically.

I guess I would just say to those concerned about Pineda and the 2019 payroll: if the Twins actually get to a point where his $8 is actually a hinderance, it almost certainly means they've been filling out lots of new contracts, in which case I'm almost certainly going to be happy anyway.

[prouster]

 

Except I'm talking about WAA and not WAR.  

 

WAR = the baseline, you never want a player below 0 WAR, but a player with positive WAR can still be a below average player.

WAA = the average player. Good players have a positive WAA. ****ty players can still have a positive WAR but will have a negative WAA.

Here is his WAA by year:

 

2011 - 0.6

2012-2013 - Minors

2014 - 2.0 (in a small sample size)

2015 - 0.2

2016 - -0.4

2017 - -0.1

From 2015 on, he has a WAA of -0.3.  That's a below average (minus) player. "Replacement level" means nothing, you want to field a team that is better than your competition (WAA) -- not better than the minors (WAR).

 

Thank you for the conversation. We disagree on a few of irreconcilable points: 1) what value means 2) whether one must look past a single stat in determining value 3) whether one must account for the margin of error when using the aforementioned stat(s). I really think it's cherry picking to look at WAA and WAA only, when other stats tell a more holistic story.

 

Overall, I like this signing without feeling passionately about it. In essence it's a one year deal, and those basically never hurt teams.

[FlauerPauer]

Not a bad signing, but this doesn't address any area of need for 2018.  Unless they come away from the winter meetings with Archer, Cole, or a badass reliever one would have to call the winter meetings this year a loss.

[wabene]

Here we go again. Why do these guys have to be so creative? I wanna go back to the previous regime. I miss the crickets dammit

[Respy]

Well, one interesting aspect of this, is that Pineda can start the season on the 60-day DL.  This will allow the Twins to either make a late signing or place a player on the 40-man roster who excelled during spring training.  Does anyone know how early players are eligible to go on the 60-day DL?  Perhaps this is a moot point if teams can just give a player a spring training invite with an agreement to sign them officially after the 40-man spot is open.

[Mike Sixel]

Hannah Hochevar

1:58 I like both, but do you prefer Smyly or Pineda for TJ return?

Eno Sarris

1:58 Smyly had a crappier, longer injury history going in, so I guess that's an argument for Pineda. But Pineda had labrum surgery way back when, so I'll take Smyly.

[RaoulDuke]

 

He could be a September addition to the bullpen when rosters expand. The bullpen might be the best spot for 2018 also.

Its going to be a disappointment if he is a 8 million dollar reliever next year considering they don't seem to be willing to spend that on a healthy, already established, good reliever this year when there is a clear hole.

[The Wise One]

 

If you look at his stat sheet, the likelihood of a breakout year is low. He's a #3/#4 guy at best.

 

If he pitches well in 2019, no one is going to be paying big money for a guy with one good year by age 31/32.  

Best case (for him) is he has a #3-level year and the Twins extend him, or he becomes a good bullpen arm and the Twins extend him.

Worst case is he turns into Scott Baker and the recovery from TJ is long. He may never actually play for the Twins before his contract runs out.

This has all the red flags of the bad signings Ryan made post 2011. Let's hope this one works out.

We're again talking about the $ involved, which doesn't matter. This team isn't going bankrupt and they have yet to make an investment in a top or even mid-level player that doesn't have an asterisk. If the Minnesota Twins ever reach a point where they can't pay their bills, then let's talk about $!

In what universe is a pitcher that has pitched to a fip in the high 2s, low 3s a number 4 starter 

[BuxtonBandwagon]

I'm obviously still assuming we'll sign/trade for another starter this offseason. If we can do that and acquire one reliever I think it's been a good offseason. If we get one of Archer, Stroman, or Cole for a reasonable trade or sign one of the top 4 starters and are able to get kintzler, Rodney, Cishek or a guy like that I'll be happy.

[jorgenswest]

Its going to be a disappointment if he is a 8 million dollar reliever next year considering they don't seem to be willing to spend that on a healthy, already established, good reliever this year when there is a clear hole.

If he pitches well it won’t be a disappointment.

[Doomtints]

 

In what universe is a pitcher that has pitched to a fip in the high 2s, low 3s a number 4 starter 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolasri01.shtml

 

Like Nolasco, Pineda has some fangraphs pundits scratching their heads. "His FIP looks nice, why does he suck? We just can't figure it out."

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=michael+pineda+fangraphs

 

Sometimes (always?) you have to use actual metrics instead of algorithms.  

 

 

[h2oface]

 

If he pitches well it won’t be a disappointment.

 

I guess if all pitchers pitch well................... with Pineda, I just hope he pitches, instead of hanging out with Phil Hughes season after season. 

 

I was really hoping the FO would go after truly above average pitchers. Depth is good. But that is all this is. I sure hope to see better deals in the future. This looks a lot like the old boss to me.... Nolasco, Pelfrey, Hughes.......... comebacks can happen..... sure they can. Sometimes for one season. Sometimes for more.... sometimes never. 

 

If he pitches well it won’t be a disappointment.

[jkcarew]

I refuse to be critical of what amounts to a one-year $8 million deal...simply because I wanted the team to make bigger deals for better pitchers.  I honestly don't think this deal will limit in any way what the Twins may want to consider later...including later today.  Nor will it make them less likely to pull the trigger on anything.  If/when they pass on the $100-$200 million pitcher, it won't be because of the $8 they've spent on Pineda.

 

So, for what this deal is...I like it.  Decent chance of representing at least a marginal improvement to the rotation or (if we end up doing better later), a huge improvement to the bullpen.  And in a year where we should be in a position for it to matter.  I think both sides showed creativity in this deal.

[laloesch]

 

I agree. Strategic thinking, committment to sustained excellence, courage to assume calculated risk.

 

it's a gamble no doubt, but he is the kind of pitcher that can beat the Yankees because well he's a former Yankee!