Article: Twins Sign RHP Michael Pineda

[ashbury]

Wait, you think a team should have 14 players producing 4 or more WAR each year?

Boy, no wonder we're disappointed if that's the standard. 

Oy, even when I label it as satire...

 

OK, so let me back up. The un-satire version is, calling a player a negative because his WAA is below zero is just as arbitrary as the cutoff point for WAR, because analytics are not especially developed for the purpose of constructing .500 (average) teams.

 

And since this digression already has gone on long enough, that's all I plan to say about it here.

 

Next on my to-do list: a nice collection of stew, roast, baking, boiling, fricassee, and ragout recipes for Irish children... oh wait, I got scooped already.

[The Wise One]

 

Those teams that are adept at teasing out the signal from the noise in the forecasting realm will run circles around those teams that believe there is certainty to be had in any of the numbers. We fans at home are certainly entitled to play along with the celebrity panel.

The closely guarded secret is how major league teams evaluate players.  Teams do not have an analytics department for shirts and giggles. This is a multi million dollar gamble is for the Twins.  A pitcher of a high ERA can be found. So there has to be something there worthwhile.  

It may well be the analytics department for pitching is a Ouija board on a waning moon. It would explain why he was signed now

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The closely guarded secret is how major league teams evaluate players.  Teams do not have an analytics department for shirts and giggles. This is a multi million dollar gamble is for the Twins.  A pitcher of a high ERA can be found. So there has to be something there worthwhile.  

It may well be the analytics department for pitching is a Ouija board on a waning moon. It would explain why he was signed now

 

Magic 8 ball is still the best.

[Doomtints]

 

The un-satire version is, calling a player a negative because his WAA is below zero is just as arbitrary as the cutoff point for WAR, because analytics are not especially developed for the purpose of constructing .500 (average) teams.

 

You misunderstand then.

 

It's not about .500 teams.

 

WAR -> Comparison to top level AAA players. "Replacement level."

WAA -> Comparison to major league players. "Good players."

 

Since most teams have around half of their players with a flatline or negative WAA, the actual metric for a .500 team is somewhere between the WAR and WAA. Thus, a .500 team should have a negative WAA, albeit small.

 

To test this let's look at the data. 

 

There were no .500 teams this year. Here are the closest:

 

Royals (80-82) -6.5.

Rays (80-82) 1.9

Angels (80-82) -2.5

 

Average: -3.63

 

Seems legit, but the Rays under-performed and the Royals over-performed (but this sample size is far too small).

 

The Twins WAA was 0.4 (This tells us what we already know -- the Twins were a hair better than the competition). 

 

The Astros? 17.8.

 

But this isn't even the point.  The point is comparing players. If you are looking at a 1.3 WAR dude and thinking happy thoughts but WAA at the position was 2.4 in that year, well, you're actually getting a bad player.

I understand there's a ton of information about WAR and none at all about WAA, so many of us are going to be unable to think about WAA at all, though. I completely get the "does not compute" responses.

Edited December 15, 2017 by Doomtints

[ashbury]

WAA has been around a long time. It's fine. Using 0.0 to determine bad players isn't.

[nicksaviking]

 

Magic 8 ball is still the best.

 

Ugh, but it's been stuck on "Ask again later" for nearly 30 years.

[Doomtints]

 

WAA has been around a long time. It's fine. Using 0.0 to determine bad players isn't.

 

Just curious, how long do you think WAA has been around?

 

As Adam Darowski of SABR (an early proponent of WAA) wrote, "62% of WAR is just showing up." WAA separates the wheat from the chaff.  

 

Look, if you want to compare major league veteran players career AAA players, go for it. At some point you gotta pump the brakes and start comparing veteran players to other MLB players. WAR is a tool that teams need to use to build rosters, but so is WAA, and yes if you never look at WAA you are missing too much of the story to make a good decision.

[ashbury]

Just curious, how long do you think WAA has been around?

I guess the present formulation is newer than I thought. I thought it was an old Bill James idea, but turns out, after a little googling, I was thinking of Pete Palmer, and he called it Pitching Runs and Batting Runs (and Fielding Runs), not "Something Above Average", basing it on his Linear Weights. That goes way, way back, probably to the 60s and 70s, Old win(e) in new bottles, if you ask me - WAR was a reaction to Total Baseball setting 0 at league average, WAA looks like a counter-reaction to that.

 

Anyway, we really need to get this out of the Pineda discussion thread. Start a new thread if you feel like pursuing this further.

[jimbo92107]

Sub- .500 starter, or an elite closer for the next decade. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Try a bite of raw onion after minty Crest. It's... different.

I “liked” this for sheer randomness.

[PopRiveter]

Can’t believe the fan response is this positive.

All I can think about is how well it worked for the Cubs when they signed Scott Baker.

He was at least as accomplished as Pineda before injury.

It makes some sense to take a flyer like this when your team is a loser, but if your expectations are playoffs (as they should be), smells like a waste of resources.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Can’t believe the fan response is this positive.
All I can think about is how well it worked for the Cubs when they signed Scott Baker.
He was at least as accomplished as Pineda before injury.
It makes some sense to take a flyer like this when your team is a loser, but if your expectations are playoffs (as they should be), smells like a waste of resources.

 

I don't understand the negativity here to be honest. Pineda would be one of the top names on the market if he was healthy. Yes, I understand TJS, but 2018 will also be the recovery year where players tend to struggle more with control. For a team that needs pitching, I think this is a really smart move. I get there's risk... but there always is with pitching and the reward/cost makes it very easy to cut bait in 2019 if needed.

 

The one thing I do see in this signing is that the Twins are likely picking up only one starter this offseason.

[kab21]

 

Can’t believe the fan response is this positive.
All I can think about is how well it worked for the Cubs when they signed Scott Baker.
He was at least as accomplished as Pineda before injury.
It makes some sense to take a flyer like this when your team is a loser, but if your expectations are playoffs (as they should be), smells like a waste of resources.

No, it makes sense to take a flyer like this if it doesn't affect your bigger plans and you could really use one more rotation option on your competitive team.

Posting one example of this type of move not working out is meaningless.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

You wanted wham?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izGwDsrQ1eQ

Don't you mean Wham!?

[Riverbrian]

 

Can’t believe the fan response is this positive.
All I can think about is how well it worked for the Cubs when they signed Scott Baker.
He was at least as accomplished as Pineda before injury.
It makes some sense to take a flyer like this when your team is a loser, but if your expectations are playoffs (as they should be), smells like a waste of resources.

 

You can't win unless you try. 

 

[Doomtints]

 

Can’t believe the fan response is this positive.
All I can think about is how well it worked for the Cubs when they signed Scott Baker.
He was at least as accomplished as Pineda before injury.
It makes some sense to take a flyer like this when your team is a loser, but if your expectations are playoffs (as they should be), smells like a waste of resources.

 

Baker pitched well for the Cubs. Two of the three games he pitched for them over the course of his contract were among the best of his career.  

 

Edited December 20, 2017 by Doomtints

[nicksaviking]

OK, now Zach Britton has torn his achilles and is likely out until late in the season. He's a free agent after this year but the O's would be on the hook for about 12M in arbitration salary if they keep him, so odds are they'll release him.

 

If the Twins happened to make the same move with Britton I assume it will come with the same derision?

[Doomtints]

 

OK, now Zach Britton has torn his achilles and is likely out until late in the season. He's a free agent after this year but the O's would be on the hook for about 12M in arbitration salary if they keep him, so odds are they'll release him.

 

If the Twins happened to make the same move with Britton I assume it will come with the same derision?

 

They are paying him close to $12M anyway, this isn't an arm injury, and he should be back before the end of the season. The Orioles would be crazy to cut him for no return. I can literally think of no team that would ever do this.

Edited December 20, 2017 by Doomtints