Article: Twins With Options On The Trade Front

[Ted Schwerzler]

Recent reports have suggested that the Twins may be interested in using the trade market to handle some roster moves this winter. Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press reported that Minnesota has called on names like Gerrit Cole and Jake Odorizzi. Meanwhile, Darren Wolfson of KSTP noted that he sees it more likely Minnesota will use the trade market to strike a deal. With these reports in mind, what do the Twins have to offer?First and foremost, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine sent a message that they intend to be active in the coming weeks and months. In leaving prospects like Jake Reed, Kohl Stewart and Lewin Diaz unprotected from the Rule 5 draft, they also kept four open spots on the 40-man roster. It stands to reason that those spots could be used on more immediate solutions, and potentially, players with higher ceilings. Suggesting that the Twins have four free agents in mind to take the openings is a bad bet, but the flexibility tells us the ball is rolling.

 

Guys like Cole and Odorizzi aren’t going to come cheap. They’ve had real success at the big league level and remain under team control going forward. There’s no doubt other names are being talked about, and if they are cut from the same cloth, the Twins won’t be able to simply pry away, at low cost, a player or two. Despite the farm system not being what it was a year or two ago, Minnesota actually has a nice stockpile of options to move, so let’s take a look at some of them.

 

The Shortstops:

 

This group may be among the most impressive collections in all of baseball. Both Nick Gordon and Royce Lewis are top 100 prospects, while Wander Javier is going to quickly shoot up prospect lists in the next few months. Add in names like Jermaine Palacios and Luis Arraez (more of a 2B), and you’ve got a quality collection of talent. If I’m an opposing club, this is a group that provides plenty of intrigue. If I’m the Twins, Lewis is probably the only player that’s off limits.

 

The Arms:

 

Although the Twins need pitching at the big league level, you can bet any deal for a true MLB starter is going to cost a prospect in return. Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero are the cream of the Minnesota crop, while Felix Jorge and Brusdar Graterol may be the next men up. The Twins added to the system in the form of names like Enlow, Littell, Leach and Watson over the past year, but it remains an area that any club is looking to build out. Gonsalves appears MLB ready now, and Romero should command a hefty ransom, but an acquisition with a proven track record may be enticing enough to move any of these names.

 

The Bats:

 

If we’re excluding the depth the Twins have in the middle of the infield on the farm, the offensive side of things takes a bit of a dip. Brent Rooker looks like a stud, and should soon be penciled in to big league lineups in Minnesota. Behind him however, things get a bit more uncertain. Diaz could skate through the Rule 5 draft having not played above Single-A, or the club could look to deal him first. Alex Kirilloff is a presence at the plate, but is coming off a lost season due to injury. Travis Blankenhorn looks the part of a sleeper prospect, and he could be joined by LaMonte Wade or 2017 pick Andrew Bechtold. Kirilloff seems like the most expendable asset here given the likelihood he moves the needle for an opposing club, but in this group there likely is not a cornerstone in any potential deal.

 

The Bigs:

 

Should the Twins be targeting major league ready talent, they may find themselves needing to give up some proven commodities as well. On such a young team, that’s a scary proposition, as the vast majority see their prime’s lying ahead of them. Eddie Rosario was a trade candidate prior to his breakout 2017, and Max Kepler may still be despite seeing his value sag. Minnesota could flip Jorge Polanco if there’s more belief in the farm options as well. As a whole however, plucking from this group seems like it could definitely come back to bite the hometown team.

 

No matter what moves the Twins make, there’s no such thing as getting talent without giving it up. Falvey and Levine are going to have to make hard decisions in acquiring players from another organization. While it’s just money on the free agent market, there’s more to be had through a potential trade. Trusting in evaluations of both their internal assets as well as what they’ll be receiving is obviously integral to the process.

 

Personally, I’d prefer to see the Twins dangle some combination built around Gordon or Kirilloff, maybe even getting interesting with international bonus money used. While doling out big paydays has become the norm, finding competitive advantages will always need to be the Twins plan of attack. The hot stove is warming up, and I’d be surprised if we don’t hear some of these scenarios begin to be speculated upon.

 

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[Han Joelo]

Nice write-up. I think I'd give Kirilloff another year before considering trading him. Seems like a sell-low deal right now.

 

You're right, though. Have to give to get. Whether it was Ramos or Hu or Billy Bullock, it was always too much for some.

[nater79a]

Someone like Gerrit Cole is probably going to cost you Gordon plus a top pitching prospect like Gonsalves, Romero or Littell.   Add in another lower level piece or two with a decent ceiling.   Gets expensive but you can't win without pitching.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Thanks for this article! I was going to go crazy if I had to read another article talking about the second- or third-tier free agents the Twins should target. You know, because the Twins and free agency have produced such great things these past years.

 

Look at the Royals. Look at the Cubs. Look at the Astros. Sure, the past 3 World Series champs had a lot of home-grown talent. But their front offices also utilized the stock piles of prospects their teams built with high draft picks to trade for players to round off their teams.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

The Twins shortstop situation is particularly intriguing. There's a lot of guys that if everything goes right will be ready for or already in Minnesota at the same time. I think the Twins should keep Gordon and Lewis. Gordon will hopefully be ready by late next season or ST 2019. Lewis is probably two years behind. The Twins can keep both and figure one can slide over to 2B to replace Dozier when the time comes or 3B when Sano moves full-time to 1B/DH.

[Rosterman]

So much depends on the pieces the Twins choose to add. Sure, they need at least one solid TOP starter, which should be their biggest drive. They need a veteran bullpen arm, but it could be a backend guy if you see promise in the rookies, and you are better likely to get some value signing a 2-3 free agent (with the option to trade them if you, by chance, tank). They do need a bat...can the guy play the outfield AND an infield position?

 

The bigger question. Mauer extension and how much? Will the Twins extend Brian Dozier and what plans for him? Can they do something with the Hughes salary, or is insurance the best bet, for now.

[beckmt]

Great article.  Twins probably have the chips to trade.  Might sent both Gordon and Gonsalves for the right FA pitcher.  Especially if I can extend them.  The win window starts this year. 

Would also consider trading Sano if discussions on an extension show he and his representatives are not interested.  You win with pitching.  In this line you hope Rooker can measure up. Or you deal with Tampa Bay for both Archer and Longorilla expected they are heading for a full rebuild.

[DocBauer]

Personally, I'd like to keep Gonsalves, Thorpe no matter what, (just the rarity of a quality LHSP prospect with real potential). Very much like to keep Rooker and Lewis. Otherwise, I'm pretty much OK on anyone else to be included in trades.

 

Sign Dozier and losing Gordon doesn't hurt so much, and there is depth. But I have to say, as good as Gordon looks, I'm not so sure some of the younger SS prospects in the system don't look even better. If I'm the other team, I may be more intrigued by one of those guys.

[Tibs]

Big fan of Gerrit Cole. I have a few questions about his durability though. Odorizzi doesn't move the needle much for me. I would not give up much for him.

[laloesch]

Personally, I'd like to keep Gonsalves, Thorpe no matter what, (just the rarity of a quality LHSP prospect with real potential). Very much like to keep Rooker and Lewis. Otherwise, I'm pretty much OK on anyone else to be included in trades.

Sign Dozier and losing Gordon doesn't hurt so much, and there is depth. But I have to say, as good as Gordon looks, I'm not so sure some of the younger SS prospects in the system don't look even better. If I'm the other team, I may be more intrigued by one of those guys.

I'd prefer to keep Gordon unless the team signs Dozier to an extension bridging the gap to Lewis and some of the other shortstop prospects.

[gman]

I don't make a major trade of prospects until I know the Twins are a major WS contender. I don't know that. So I don't think 2018 is a go for it season. Hopefully they are a surprise and added a couple more wins to the 2017 total and continued roster development. But still too many question marks on what we have.

[twinfan]

Ok. Are we the Twins of 2016 or 2017? Or somewhere in between? Is Buxton going to continue to improve? Will Sano bounce back? Is Berrios a possible #1 (I don't believe in #1,#2, etc stuff)? How much of the farm do we mortgage and for what? Cole and Odorizzi are not lights out pitchers but are as good as what we have at this point after Santana and Berrios. I would keep as many of our prospects as we can and see where we are in 2018. I hope we can repeat or better 2017 but the jury is out on that one. Let's see. And let's get a good closer.

[mikelink45]

Here is my confusion.  Right after the WS and long before Rule V cuts we could have made trade offers with those we decided to not protect as the backend players in any deals.  Since many of them have some interesting back stories, they would not have been wasted in such talks.  Right now if it is a pitcher Slegers and Enns are both ready to move and clear 40 man space at the same time.  

​The glut at SS is not a glut until we have them ready for MLB and no place to play them.  Give up Slegers, Kiriloff, Kepler and Gordon and see what that brings in - in my less informed mind that sounds like a nice package for a good pitcher like Cole that is coming off a poor year. 

[kab21]

 

I don't make a major trade of prospects until I know the Twins are a major WS contender. I don't know that. So I don't think 2018 is a go for it season. Hopefully they are a surprise and added a couple more wins to the 2017 total and continued roster development. But still too many question marks on what we have.

Catch 22

You won't know that the Twins are a major WS contender until they have some starting pitching. This team is going nowhere significant until the acquire some starting pitching.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I'm not a fan of trading Gordon (though I've accepted it at this point). I think Jorge is the first guy I want to use to get help. If they are picking up a pitcher in trade and FA, you can probably shop Romero or Gonsalves too. I'd rather keep Thorpe and Gaterol at the moment.

[Shaitan]

What is Polanco's ceiling?  Will he ever hit 10+ HR again or was it a fluke (in a juiced ball year)?

[nater79a]

 

Here is my confusion.  Right after the WS and long before Rule V cuts we could have made trade offers with those we decided to not protect as the backend players in any deals.  Since many of them have some interesting back stories, they would not have been wasted in such talks.  Right now if it is a pitcher Slegers and Enns are both ready to move and clear 40 man space at the same time.  

​The glut at SS is not a glut until we have them ready for MLB and no place to play them.  Give up Slegers, Kiriloff, Kepler and Gordon and see what that brings in - in my less informed mind that sounds like a nice package for a good pitcher like Cole that is coming off a poor year. 

 

Seems to me the Pirates would want more high-end pitching prospects back than just Slegers.    Not sure the Bucs have a major need in their OF for Kepler either.

Edited November 24, 2017 by nater79a

[nater79a]

 

Personally, I'd like to keep Gonsalves, Thorpe no matter what, (just the rarity of a quality LHSP prospect with real potential). Very much like to keep Rooker and Lewis. Otherwise, I'm pretty much OK on anyone else to be included in trades.

Sign Dozier and losing Gordon doesn't hurt so much, and there is depth. But I have to say, as good as Gordon looks, I'm not so sure some of the younger SS prospects in the system don't look even better. If I'm the other team, I may be more intrigued by one of those guys.

 

Yeah, I think Gordon is expendable in the right deal if Dozier is signed to an extension.   Gordon might be a 2B long-term anyway.

 

I'd also like to hang on to Blayne Enlow if possible.

Edited November 24, 2017 by nater79a

[drew_7726]

Is Gordon, Jorge, and L. wells enough for Marcus Stroman or Archer

[bluechipper]

Is Gordon, Jorge, and L. wells enough for Marcus Stroman or Archer

If Kepler or Rosario is added, plus swapping out Gonsalves or Romero for Jorge, then maybe.

[jorgenswest]

If the Twins are going to compete for a very good starter in the trade market, they need to go in with all of their cards.

 

They can’t enter those discussions holding back discussions for any of their prospects. They don’t have any premium prospects like those that have been traded on the last year for pitchers.

 

Reservations about gutting the system to get a very good pitcher are reasonable, but that is what it is going to take. Taking the reasonable position of being unwilling to trade Gordon or Lewis or Gonsalves would be a message to trade partners that the Twins aren’t serious about making a deal.

 

I am seriously interested in the Twins acquiring an Archer or Cole. Every prospect is in that discussion.

[mikelink45]

 

Seems to me the Pirates would want more high-end pitching prospects back than just Slegers.    Not sure the Bucs have a major need in their OF for Kepler either.

I can see that - How about Slegers, Jorge, and if we still had him - Kohl with a position player thrown in?

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

If Kepler or Rosario is added, plus swapping out Gonsalves or Romero for Jorge, then maybe.

 

I agree with the tweaks. Blue Jays or Rays would want MLB players included. Between Gonsalves and Romero, I'd hold on to Gonsalves. His ceiling may be lower, but he's LH and prob has a safer floor. The trade may need a SP a little higher than Wells, though.

 

To me Archer would be an extraordinary get for the front office. I like Gordon, but if we could package him, Kepler (I'd prefer to keep Rosario), Romero, and Wells to get Archer, I'd be thrilled.

[Broker]

I don't worry much about loosing some prospects. As a whole our Twins are quite young.

[Halsey Hall]

I don't care to lose Kepler.  Been watching him since he was 15, it would be hard to see him go.

[Thrylos]

Got to add Santana and Dozier (and the lesser valued Vargas and Grossman) as trade bait from the bigs.  They are considerably older than the team core at this point.

 

I think that the Twins should be creative and go for more than 1:1 trades.   Not sure what it would take to get Cole from Pittsburgh, but I would rather see what will take to take Cole, plus Rivero (who is about to get pretty expensive via arbitration), plus McCutchen.  Pittsburgh has plenty of young arms to want a deal where the bats are the centerpiece.  I think getting Cutch back who will be at least as good, if no better than Kepler next season (and replaced by Rooker in 2019), I can give them Kepler.  Then I would add their local product, Kirilloff and Gordon.  Two out of those will plug in their team right away.  Then I would offer them their pick of up to 2 of the non-protected relievers (Burdi, Bard, Reed, Melotakis,)  and if they really want Gonsalves to put them over the top, they should take him.  The Twins will take $14.5M + ~7.5M + ~ 3M = ~25M a year for 2018.

 

This way the Twins get a number two, a 25 yo stud closer, and a 4 win or so RHB OF in his last season before he becomes a FA...  This makes the Twins a better team now and in the future.

Edited November 24, 2017 by Thrylos

[Thrylos]

 

So much depends on the pieces the Twins choose to add. Sure, they need at least one solid TOP starter, which should be their biggest drive. They need a veteran bullpen arm, but it could be a backend guy if you see promise in the rookies, and you are better likely to get some value signing a 2-3 free agent (with the option to trade them if you, by chance, tank). They do need a bat...can the guy play the outfield AND an infield position?

 

To compete with the Indians, Astros, and Dodgers they need more than that:

 

2 SP better than Berrios, 3 end of the pen pitchers, including a closer and 2 set up men, and maybe a RH power bat who can play OF or DH.

 

And that assumes that Otani and Darvish will not end up in one of these 3 teams.

[darin617]

 

The Twins shortstop situation is particularly intriguing. There's a lot of guys that if everything goes right will be ready for or already in Minnesota at the same time. I think the Twins should keep Gordon and Lewis. Gordon will hopefully be ready by late next season or ST 2019. Lewis is probably two years behind. The Twins can keep both and figure one can slide over to 2B to replace Dozier when the time comes or 3B when Sano moves full-time to 1B/DH.

 

Thought they said Royce Lewis is going to converted into an outfielder since I thought the glove was not MLB quality.

[drjim]

Glad that you added constructively in the conversation.

 

If you do not like what I proposed, please enlighten us why it will not work and maybe even suggest what it will take to make it happen.

 

The Twins get 3 players with 6 years of control total, vs 5-6 players with 28-30 years of control, plus $22M in savings for Pittsburgh. Also at least 2 of those players are 1st round draft picks, the third a MLB-level OF with upside, the fourth a top 100 SP, and the other 2, second draft pick relievers.

 

Tell us why this will not work for Pittsburgh

Kiriloff and the unprotected bullpen arms don't add anything. High volumes of medicore or injured prospects are not that attractive. Though I have some hope for a rebound for Kiriloff.

 

Kepler and Gordon is probably close for Cole, I think adding Gonsalves easily does it, but not enough for either of the other pieces.

 

I'm personally really high on Kepler, but I'm not sure that's the position of the industry, and while Gordon and Gonsalves are nice pieces, they aren't the difference makers someone would want for a really solid 2 like Cole.

[kab21]

 

Got to add Santana and Dozier (and the lesser valued Vargas and Grossman) as trade bait from the bigs.  They are considerably older than the team core at this point.

 

 

Trading away good veterans for relatively small value doesn't make the team better next year no matter how much you dislike the 5 WAR Dozier. 

I have no problem trading either of them for a top trade package. Maybe a top 25 and a top 100 prospect for Dozier or 2 borderline top 100 prospects for Ervin but I doubt that anyone offers that for either of them.