Article: Falvine Ready To Flex Muscles

[gunnarthor]

 

This is simply not true and do you really believe you have the time and expertise necessary to judge our favorite team vs. the rest of the league?   Easy to say, impossible to prove.

I do think it's fair to argue that the Twins FO underestimated its chances when it moved Kintzler, for example. I like Tyler Watson but it's not like he's an elite prospect. He's probably not in our top 20. And for that, the FO saved a few bucks for ownership and ran up the white flag. I think it's fair to criticize them for that.

[drjim]

 

This is simply not true and do you really believe you have the time and expertise necessary to judge our favorite team vs. the rest of the league?   Easy to say, impossible to prove.

 

They sold at the trade deadline from a roster that had the talent (relative to the other Wild Card contenders) to go on and make the playoffs. That is an error in evaluation, even granting the many other comments that it was defensible and a logical process.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Can you share specific examples with the board? Off hand, I can't think of one.

There was the story that the front office was considering demoting Buxton this summer, but Rowson talked them out of it. That was an underestimation IMO.

[Riverbrian]

 

I have been in enough board room meetings to recognize something that would come up and be heavily discussed/scrutinized. Buying and then selling within a few days of one another would be one of those things.

 

But it's a learning process. They will learn to not have these knee jerk reactions in the future. If they are truly not sure if they are ready to buy, they won't. And they certainly won't sell after a bad road series against the best team in the NL a few days later.

 

Would Ryan buy/sell so quickly? No, he would just sell or do nothing. But is "different" necessarily better? Of course not. Buying followed by selling is the same as doing nothing!

 

In the end... I'm ok with it all. They ended up adding a decent pitching prospect for money so they did move a direction.  

 

The end of the July sure looks wishy washy from that smaller scale but I think if you lengthen it out and look at it from a beginning of the year time frame... it should appear like they stuck to the plan because it makes sense that Kintzler was probably always targeted as a trade deadline chip... due to his impending free agency. 

 

The damn team.just didn't cooperate by being in the race. They showed me the ability to adjust to that data... even if it was momentary. 

 

I guess... i like that they were willing to consider that they may have been wrong. The worst thing a GM or anybody can do is... go the wrong direction... and then keep going the wrong direction due to hubris. 

[tvagle]

 

I guess... i like that they were willing to consider that they may have been wrong. The worst thing a GM or anybody can do is... go the wrong direction... and then keep going the wrong direction due to hubris. 

 

As if it wasn't bad enough that I have to occasionally do upper level calculus and higher level probability theorems as well as refreshing my American Literature reading list on TwinsDaily now I need to augment my vocabulary to keep up with the higher intellect required to understand posts like this

 

posted without wanton hubris or gratuitous disparagization intended

Edited November 20, 2017 by tvagle

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

There was the story that the front office was considering demoting Buxton this summer, but Rowson talked them out of it. That was an underestimation IMO.

That's not an underestimation, that's a front office trying to do what's best for a player and the coaching staff stepping in to say "hold up, we're working on something, let it play out".

 

Isn't that how things are supposed to work?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

That's not an underestimation, that's a front office trying to do what's best for a player and the coaching staff stepping in to say "hold up, we're working on something, let it play out".

 

Isn't that how things are supposed to work?

Yes, that is how it is supposed to work. I also read it as they felt Buxton needs to work it out against lesser competition; not sure he is good enough to work throufh it against major leaguers during a pennant race.

 

To be clear, we're not exactly sure who in the FO wanted Buxton demoted, or how committed they were to that plan. But someone did. Not too big deal considering how bad Buxton was at times, I only mention it because other posters are disputing the opinion I share that the FO guys underestimated the team this year.

Edited November 20, 2017 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[kab21]

The FO added 2 promising arms (3 added and 1 subtracted) to a system that desperately needed pitching. They also showed a willingness to be creative and buy prospects. I have no problem with a 49-53 team trading two alright impending FA's even if they had just acquired one of them the week before or if they did end up making the playoffs as a wild card.

 

The part that gives me pause is the relative lack of action or creativity in the offseason. Castro was a very good move and Gimenez proved to be a nice under the radar addition but they largely stood pat with an awful pitching staff. I am hoping to see more of the trade deadline (outside the box) strategy this offseason.

[IndianaTwin]

 

Yeah but that's only because of that time your wife talked you into 37 for a Power Ball Number when your heart was screaming 29.

 

As a result... when you go out with your wife to Chili's for Supper. You decide that you will have the Guacamole Burger around 3PM and you start looking forward to it. 

 

You finally get to Chili's with your lovely wife and the server tells you about the Endless Mix and Match Ribs special for less than the price of the Guacamole Burger. You look around the restaurant and you see incredible looking ribs everywhere and you almost order them... but then you remember the Power Ball number thing and you decide that it is best to stay with the original plan through hell or high water and you order the Guacamole Burger that you have been looking forward to for the past 3 hours.  

 

The burger ends up being OK but your wife was making multiple "These are delicious comments" while enjoying the endless ribs. 

 

You could have had those ribs but the Power Ball number ended up being 28 and 29 would have been damn close.  

 

 

 

I give them credit... It takes a special kind of pluck to change your mind out of necessity in front of many people who will claim a lack of confidence because of the indecision.  

 

Those who can't change their minds... can't change anything. 

 

Chili's has endless ribs? 

 

If true, that may be the best TD info yet -- now I can convince my wife that all the time I spend here is worth it!

 

[ashbury]

Chili's has endless ribs?

Unlike most of us, Brian keeps a notepad beside his bed and remembers to jot down his fever dreams when he wakes up from them at 3 a.m. With no game threads to start, he has to find other uses for these gems. Man, I wish I had sweet dreams like that one.

[Doomtints]

Has Falvey flexed his muscles yet?

[yarnivek1972]

It’s all about putting players in position to succeed, something Tom Kelly and Andy MacPhail did very well. In this day and age, part of that equation is analytics. That part of the game passed Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire by IMO.

[Linus]

Has Falvey flexed his muscles yet?

I think they are cramping....

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I can understand the thinking that wavering on plan can be concerning, but I see it differently:

 

1. The FO made a decision to go get the Twins some pitching help. Made the trade to grab Garcia. Cost them a low level prospect.

2. The Twins looked awful after the trade.

3. The FO made another decision to sell. They didn’t waste any time. Made multiple trades.

 

The bonus here is that by “buying” prospects from the Yankees, the FO showed that ownership is willing to work with them and provide some $$$ if they have a plan. That is incredibly exciting IMO.

 

Things may not work out this offseason, but the fact that the FO made multiple deals, AND the Twins still made it to the post season has me happy with what took place at the deadline.

to add, Garcia was a rental and was realistically going to add at most a win or two over a realistic replacement. Littel and Enns appear to have significant value to the depth of rotation for the 2018 MN Twins as the 6-7 or 7-8 guys and help avoid the Big Sexy type acquisitions.

 

I see it more inspirational than not.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

They sold at the trade deadline from a roster that had the talent (relative to the other Wild Card contenders) to go on and make the playoffs. That is an error in evaluation, even granting the many other comments that it was defensible and a logical process.

its semantics I guess, but with the aid of hindsight, they traded away a rental middle reliever (in most organizations) and a rental 4th starter. They got back two double A pitchers, an A ball pitcher, and int’l pool cap.

 

Is that really a sell? It’s not like they traded away Dozier, Santana and Mauer

[drjim]

 

its semantics I guess, but with the aid of hindsight, they traded away a rental middle reliever (in most organizations) and a rental 4th starter. They got back two double A pitchers, an A ball pitcher, and int’l pool cap.

Is that really a sell? It’s not like they traded away Dozier, Santana and Mauer

 

They traded away productive pieces from the major league roster for prospects that couldn't contribute the rest of the season and replaced those pieces with lesser players from inside the organization. Isn't that the definition of a sell?

 

I agree it wasn't blowing things up and rebuilding for a couple years down the line, but it was absolutely a sell.

[Kelly Vance]

 

its semantics I guess, but with the aid of hindsight, they traded away a rental middle reliever (in most organizations) and a rental 4th starter. They got back two double A pitchers, an A ball pitcher, and int’l pool cap.

Is that really a sell? It’s not like they traded away Dozier, Santana and Mauer

I think the FO stayed with their plan to add potentially good young arms despite the surprising team staying in contention.  And the view from the end of the road seems to justify what they did. If they want Kinz, he is available now. But they had Belisle and Pressley so moving Kinz was a calculated risk.  Garcia was never going to be a difference maker but the young pitchers they acquired could be. Also the trade with the Nats gave them Int'l money, which may not be enough to land Ohtani but it was a shot that they took. I'm ok with it all. It even lit  fire under the team which played better after the moves. 

[drjim]

 

I think the FO stayed with their plan to add potentially good young arms despite the surprising team staying in contention.  And the view from the end of the road seems to justify what they did. If they want Kinz, he is available now. But they had Belisle and Pressley so moving Kinz was a calculated risk.  Garcia was never going to be a difference maker but the young pitchers they acquired could be. Also the trade with the Nats gave them Int'l money, which may not be enough to land Ohtani but it was a shot that they took. I'm ok with it all. It even lit  fire under the team which played better after the moves. 

 

It was not a "calculated risk". The front office sold the impending free agents on the roster with value because they didn't think the team would make the playoffs.

 

It's fine to say it worked out in the end, but I can assure you that if the front office knew how the rest of the season would shake out, not only would they have kept Kintzler and Garcia, but they would have added at least another bat, if not also another reliever or two.

[bird]

 

I think I get where you're coming from. Vacillation will blow leadership credibility in a hurry. That's important in any organization, and I suppose especially so in a sports org.

 

Even though I just got done explaining why I was OK with the trading deadline about-face, as an interesting case-study in Analytics, I recognize you can't do that very many times.

 

 

It seems to me the new boys forewent an argument that says you don't pull the plug on something this important (the WC) if there's still the slightest uncertainty. That should frankly be a philosophical underpinning for many reasons, not the least being the "message" such a decision sends.

 

I think they looked too hard at the abacus and played the odds. They got too cute. One hopes they learned a lesson.

 

I forgive them. And if they manage a nice recovery via the IFA cash, Littell, and Watson, I'll double forgive them, but I still think they got cute there, and I hope it wasn't hubris, or if it was, it's gone now.

[cmoss84]

 

It was not a "calculated risk". The front office sold the impending free agents on the roster with value because they didn't think the team would make the playoffs.

 

It's fine to say it worked out in the end, but I can assure you that if the front office knew how the rest of the season would shake out, not only would they have kept Kintzler and Garcia, but they would have added at least another bat, if not also another reliever or two.

I would agree with you-if Kintzler had been a proven closer for at least a few years or if he was a bit younger. I think the move was in between buying and selling. We had other replacement options in our bullpen. Obviously it worked out ok...other guys had a chance to prove themselves in expanded roles and we got prospects, while making the playoffs. Hard to argue with any of that-and being able to sign him (Kintzler) back right now is just icing on the cake. 

Edited December 1, 2017 by cmoss84

[ahart10]

Falvine sold off veterans and made the WC. I call that getting your pie and eating it too.

[Kelly Vance]

 

It was not a "calculated risk". The front office sold the impending free agents on the roster with value because they didn't think the team would make the playoffs.

 

It's fine to say it worked out in the end, but I can assure you that if the front office knew how the rest of the season would shake out, not only would they have kept Kintzler and Garcia, but they would have added at least another bat, if not also another reliever or two.

I call BS. You don't know what the FO was thinking. But assuming they knew the Twins 2017 were not going deep into the playoffs, they made a calculated decision to add arms and move some pieces around to do that. 

Stop being hyper critical. They made three right calls for long term growth. 

[drjim]

 

I call BS. You don't know what the FO was thinking. But assuming they knew the Twins 2017 were not going deep into the playoffs, they made a calculated decision to add arms and move some pieces around to do that. 

Stop being hyper critical. They made three right calls for long term growth. 

 

They more or less admitted they made a mistake in all of the interviews that followed. And they were actively trying to add relievers in August. These are not the words and actions of someone who was strategically trying to sell while still anticipating getting bounced early.

 

And to put it more directly, screw adding marginal prospect arms if it would put a playoff berth in jeopardy. That is a terrible tradeoff for a professional baseball franchise to make. This is especially true with the Kintzler trade/return. I can accept that they followed a process and made a mistake, but I would be way more offended if they thought they had a really legit chance to make the playoffs and decided to flip a couple pieces because they figured they wouldn't make it very far anyways.

[Kelly Vance]

 

They more or less admitted they made a mistake in all of the interviews that followed. And they were actively trying to add relievers in August. These are not the words and actions of someone who was strategically trying to sell while still anticipating getting bounced early.

 

And to put it more directly, screw adding marginal prospect arms if it would put a playoff berth in jeopardy. That is a terrible tradeoff for a professional baseball franchise to make. This is especially true with the Kintzler trade/return. I can accept that they followed a process and made a mistake, but I would be way more offended if they thought they had a really legit chance to make the playoffs and decided to flip a couple pieces because they figured they wouldn't make it very far anyways.

As I said, the playoff run was surprising. And it is not like we didn't make the playoffs. I think you are way over valuing Kinz's and Garcia's contribution as opposed to the guys we kept. The key is, did we lose games we would have won with Jaime or Kinz?  I don't think so, not more than a couple anyway.  And the difference means we would have been the #1 WC maybe, and still would have played the Yankees.  Don't think it mattered really, as even if we'd have won the WC game, Houston or Cleveland would have ousted us. So since they don't give trophies for losing the ALDS I don't see the downside enough to complain. Bottom line, we have international dough and two almost MLB ready arms we didn't have before.   

Edited December 3, 2017 by ChiTownTwinsFan

[drjim]

 

As I said, the playoff run was surprising. And it is not like we didn't make the playoffs. I think you are way over valuing Kinz's and Garcia's contribution as opposed to the guys we kept. The key is, did we lose games we would have won with Jaime or Kinz?  I don't think so, not more than a couple anyway.  And the difference means we would have been the #1 WC maybe, and still would have played the Yankees.  Don't think it mattered really, as even if we'd have won the WC game, Houston or Cleveland would have ousted us. So since they don't give trophies for losing the ALDS I don't see the downside enough to complain. Bottom line, we have international dough and two almost MLB ready arms we didn't have before.   

 

I have pretty much moved on from complaining, other than when the dialogue continues. My main point I made in this specific thread is that Falvine haven't really done anything other than misjudge the talent on the roster relative to the rest of the second tier of the league, as seen by not being aggressive enough last offseason to bring in better free agents nor at the deadline.

 

There is a lot of chatter about how the front office is going to do this or going to do that. They might, and they should, but right now it is all wishcasting. We don't yet know how good they are at acquiring and evaluating major league talent.

[Kelly Vance]

 

I have pretty much moved on from complaining, other than when the dialogue continues. My main point I made in this specific thread is that Falvine haven't really done anything other than misjudge the talent on the roster relative to the rest of the second tier of the league, as seen by not being aggressive enough last offseason to bring in better free agents nor at the deadline.

 

There is a lot of chatter about how the front office is going to do this or going to do that. They might, and they should, but right now it is all wishcasting. We don't yet know how good they are at acquiring and evaluating major league talent.

And I think you are monday morning quarterbacking when it is pointless to do it. And I don't think your premise is right to start. You don't KNOW what they were thinking.Deny it or not, you ARE complaining and you are assuming your own set of assumptions about what they shoulda, coulda or mighta done different. But although you try to disguise it as some sort of factual observation, it is really just your own opinion. Because you don't KNOW what deals they were offered. And "more or less admitted" is a BS code translation for your guess is as good as mine. The FO looked at  moves that were there to be had and there were precious few. We weren't going to grab Verlander for example. I think they didn't find a great move so they made a cautious sort of in between move, and one that stuck with the plan from the beginning of the year to add more arms and stock up international dough in case Ohtani came out.  I think you call the FO dumb, but I think they were way ahead of you and a lot of other posters on here. . 

[Squirrel]

Moderator note: At some point ‘Agree to disagree’ is a good option rather than going down a path that turns to bickering.

[Mike Sixel]

I have pretty much moved on from complaining, other than when the dialogue continues. My main point I made in this specific thread is that Falvine haven't really done anything other than misjudge the talent on the roster relative to the rest of the second tier of the league, as seen by not being aggressive enough last offseason to bring in better free agents nor at the deadline.

 

There is a lot of chatter about how the front office is going to do this or going to do that. They might, and they should, but right now it is all wishcasting. We don't yet know how good they are at acquiring and evaluating major league talent.

100 percent right on.

[USAFChief]

 

As I said, the playoff run was surprising. And it is not like we didn't make the playoffs. I think you are way over valuing Kinz's and Garcia's contribution as opposed to the guys we kept. The key is, did we lose games we would have won with Jaime or Kinz?  I don't think so, not more than a couple anyway.  And the difference means we would have been the #1 WC maybe, and still would have played the Yankees.  Don't think it mattered really, as even if we'd have won the WC game, Houston or Cleveland would have ousted us. So since they don't give trophies for losing the ALDS I don't see the downside enough to complain. Bottom line, we have international dough and two almost MLB ready arms we didn't have before.   

"...The playoff run was surprising."  Maybe when viewed from the perspective of last March, but by July they had been in the hunt for a playoff spot since day 1 of the season, and one week in late July doesn't change that equation.  Falvine didn't just wake up one morning in late July, read the STrib, and discover "Holy cow...we're IN this??"  In fact, they traded FOR help one week earlier.

 

"...it's not like we didn't make the playoffs."  This is not a point in favor of your argument, or in favor of Falvine's actions.  This is a point AGAINST their actions.  The fact they made the postseason in spite of Falvine trading away pitching is just more proof they misread the situation badly.  They clearly should have been trying to boost the team's chances, not reduce them.

 

"...did we lose games we would have won with Jaime or Kinz?"   This is after the fact reasoning, and also completely misses the point.  

 

"...Houston or Cleveland would have ousted us..."  Again, completely misses the point.

 

The bottom line is...Falvine misread the situation, and traded from, not to, a team in contention for the postseason.  That's a mistake, and I believe they both would privately admit the same.  

 

 

 

 

[Twins33]

The bottom line is...Falvine misread the situation, and traded from, not to, a team in contention for the postseason.  That's a mistake, and I believe they both would privately admit the same.

 

Yes, they added and then subtracted but correct me if I'm wrong...at the time of the trade (Garcia and Kintzler), wasn't there only a four percent chance of making the playoffs?

 

If there was, how can anyone call that contention? It's not even close. 50% can go either way. 4% you have to play way above and beyond what you have been AND have everyone else start playing worse or at least not add ground on you. They ended up doing that, but how can one be mad at a 4% chance? That run wasn't expected by anyone.

 

If they didn't make the playoffs people would have thought they were crazy to not move those two and possibly Santana. They would have looked foolish for hanging on to the free agents to be, for sure.

 

I'm perfectly fine with what they did because I didn't expect a miracle which is what 4% to 100% is with only 2-ish months to go and several teams to fight for the one open playoff spot. That was a miracle. I don't expect miracles and I'm surprised so many others do.

 

I don't know what their percentage was when they acquired Garcia, so maybe that was a mistake and they corrected that mistake by getting rid of him when they had so little of a shot. So if people are upset about the quick pivot from adding to subtracting, I can understand that. But to think this team was a playoff contender when they only had a 4% chance, that confuses the heck out of me.