Article: Falvine Ready To Flex Muscles

[sploorp]

 

Well said.   This is the first time in a long time that I am truly intrigued by the offseason and the front office.    Falvine have shown, albeit in a small sample size, to be very forward thinking and willing to take risks.   Great to see.

I'm stoked.  I find myself checking MLB Trade Rumors several times a day just in case something starts to break.

[sploorp]

 

Losing Jaime Garcia for the rest of 2017 was more than made up by Bartolo Colon.

I know others may laugh and point and mock, but there is a part of me that would love to see Colon come back.  Maybe as a long reliever with an occasional spot start?

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

It's as simple as, a team doesn't go from in contention, to not in contention, in 6 days in the middle of the season.

maybe there are more data points that go into the decision other than contention

[drjim]

It's as simple as, a team doesn't go from in contention, to not in contention, in 6 days in the middle of the season.

It was a strange sequence of decisions. They hit a moment of truth and waffled and punted. Made Terry Ryan look committed and decisive!

[DocBauer]

It depends on how they use the international bonus slot money that was part of the deal. It's the new PTBNL.

Or the new Brian Duensing.

[ashbury]

It's as simple as, a team doesn't go from in contention, to not in contention, in 6 days in the middle of the season.

maybe there are more data points that go into the decision other than contention

Also, the term "contention" is a fuzzy one. A great many arguments arise from people assigning different meanings to words. Maybe Falvey and Levine had in mind some threshold, like 10% odds of reaching the post-season, and decided to make a middling move such as for Garcia. A mere 6 days later, the same calculation looked more like 4% to them, and they went with their convictions.

 

Chief likes Texas Hold 'Em. I'm sure he's had plenty of hands where his first two cards were worth betting but then he rightly folded when the flop came down, and then (against the odds) exactly the right turn card came which would have made the hand worth seeing through after all. Unlike poker, baseball doesn't require (or allow) you to completely fold, on the other hand after a certain point not very near the end you can't make meaningful additional bets. But under baseball-like rules, maybe you'd like to re-open that folded poker hand and pay to see the river card. I don't know poker well enough to construct a very good analogy, but that's how I see it. Each card that gets played gives you new information and new odds. That one week in July, five very poor "cards" were revealed to the Twins and they took a little bit out of the pot. It happened that the remaining cards for the rest of the season were a lot better. That's cards; that's baseball.

[ashbury]

Argh, in poker you don't pay to try to obtain better cards, you pay to go to the next reveal. Not to mention that all players' cards are more or less face up in baseball - no one is wondering "maybe the Twins have Mike Trout". So it's not a good analogy, and I give up on that.

 

But the point is the improved information at each reveal and a revised estimate of your chances - that's where there's a similarity, and where there can be a sudden turn for the worse in your calculation of your chances that (later on with hindsight) turns out not to be decisive after all. You still have to make your decision at the time, with much still uncertain. And if the decision at one stage is close, the next card will easily reverse that decision.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yeah but that's only because of that time your wife talked you into 37 for a Power Ball Number when your heart was screaming 29.

 

As a result... when you go out with your wife to Chili's for Supper. You decide that you will have the Guacamole Burger around 3PM and you start looking forward to it. 

 

You finally get to Chili's with your lovely wife and the server tells you about the Endless Mix and Match Ribs special for less than the price of the Guacamole Burger. You look around the restaurant and you see incredible looking ribs everywhere and you almost order them... but then you remember the Power Ball number thing and you decide that it is best to stay with the original plan through hell or high water and you order the Guacamole Burger that you have been looking forward to for the past 3 hours.  

 

The burger ends up being OK but your wife was making multiple "These are delicious comments" while enjoying the endless ribs. 

 

You could have had those ribs but the Power Ball number ended up being 28 and 29 would have been damn close.  

 

 

 

I give them credit... It takes a special kind of pluck to change your mind out of necessity in front of many people who will claim a lack of confidence because of the indecision.  

 

Those who can't change their minds... can't change anything. 

 

a normal male would eat a few of his wife's endless ribs when no one is looking... just sayin...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Let me fumble through this Texas Holdem poker analogy...

 

After the All Star break, every team got to peek at the flop (difficulty of schedule). The Twins were scheduled to play Houston, the Yankees, and the Dodgers, also Detroit and Oakland. Those are tough cards to play. 

 

But even before peeking at the flop and playing the flop, every team also got a very quick peek at the turn and river and burn cards, too. That is the "difficulty of schedule after the All Star Break trade deadline" cards. Those last two cards looked much more playable for the Twins, and didn't match the hands as well for the other teams. 

 

While the Twins were getting swept against the Dodgers in late July, the Royals were winning 9 straight games against the Tigers and the White Sox.

 

You might say that the Royals win streak bluffed the Twins front office out of the card game. I certainly feel that way. 

Edited November 19, 2017 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[ashbury]

But even before peeking at the flop and playing the flop, every team also got a very quick peek at the turn and river and burn cards, too.

I can just see Chief wringing his hands and saying "pleasepleasepleaseplease let me play these guys here for MONEY."

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I can just see Chief wringing his hands and saying "pleasepleasepleaseplease let me play these guys here for MONEY."

And as long as I stay away from the poker tables, I will have money to lose to him when that day comes.  

[USAFChief]

Also, the term "contention" is a fuzzy one. A great many arguments arise from people assigning different meanings to words. Maybe Falvey and Levine had in mind some threshold, like 10% odds of reaching the post-season, and decided to make a middling move such as for Garcia. A mere 6 days later, the same calculation looked more like 4% to them, and they went with their convictions.

 

Chief likes Texas Hold 'Em. I'm sure he's had plenty of hands where his first two cards were worth betting but then he rightly folded when the flop came down, and then (against the odds) exactly the right turn card came which would have made the hand worth seeing through after all. Unlike poker, baseball doesn't require (or allow) you to completely fold, on the other hand after a certain point not very near the end you can't make meaningful additional bets. But under baseball-like rules, maybe you'd like to re-open that folded poker hand and pay to see the river card. I don't know poker well enough to construct a very good analogy, but that's how I see it. Each card that gets played gives you new information and new odds. That one week in July, five very poor "cards" were revealed to the Twins and they took a little bit out of the pot. It happened that the remaining cards for the rest of the season were a lot better. That's cards; that's baseball.

one major difference: baseball GMs get to change the cards they hold during the game. They get to add to, or subtract from the roster.

 

I still don't think the Twins playoff chances changed significantly because of a rough series in LA. If they were adding before that, they shouldn't be subtracting after

[The Wise One]

The Kintzler trade was not a bad thing. The Twins ended up with a 20 year old with some upside and money to get another player. For Kintzler it was a legitimate shot for a deep playoff run. With or without Kintzler the Twins playoff run was destined to be short.  

[PseudoSABR]

It's also possible that they acquired Jaime Garcia in mind knowing the possibility that they would move him (pay his salary and obtain a better return) was very high.  The Twins scuffled at the same time the Indians and the Royals (who faded down the stretch) got very hot.   I doubt its a case of the Falvey/Levine changing their minds about the Twins ability to contend, so much as certain contingency came about which they had anticipated and made good on. 

 

Swapping Ynoa for Little and Enns, acquired two near ready arms for one not ready anytime soon arm.  That outcome wasn't possible without Jaime Garcia and his salary--regardless of the Twins likelihood of contention at the time of either move.

[Riverbrian]

 

Also, the term "contention" is a fuzzy one. A great many arguments arise from people assigning different meanings to words. Maybe Falvey and Levine had in mind some threshold, like 10% odds of reaching the post-season, and decided to make a middling move such as for Garcia. A mere 6 days later, the same calculation looked more like 4% to them, and they went with their convictions.

 

Chief likes Texas Hold 'Em. I'm sure he's had plenty of hands where his first two cards were worth betting but then he rightly folded when the flop came down, and then (against the odds) exactly the right turn card came which would have made the hand worth seeing through after all. Unlike poker, baseball doesn't require (or allow) you to completely fold, on the other hand after a certain point not very near the end you can't make meaningful additional bets. But under baseball-like rules, maybe you'd like to re-open that folded poker hand and pay to see the river card. I don't know poker well enough to construct a very good analogy, but that's how I see it. Each card that gets played gives you new information and new odds. That one week in July, five very poor "cards" were revealed to the Twins and they took a little bit out of the pot. It happened that the remaining cards for the rest of the season were a lot better. That's cards; that's baseball.

 

At the All Star Break

 

Twins: 8C 8H

Rays:  AH 10D

Royals: JD 9D

Rangers: KS 2S

Angels: 10H 7D

Mariners: 9H 4D

 

The Flop Was 6H 5H 4C a week later

 

The Twins made a small bet

 

The Turn was a jack of clubs a week after that

 

The Twins Checked

 

The Riverbrian was 7 of Spades a month after that

 

We hit a gut shot

 

GUT SHOT BABY!!!! 

 

 

[USAFChief]

At the All Star Break

 

Twins: 8C 8H

Rays: AH 10D

Royals: JD 9D

Rangers: KS 2S

Angels: 10H 7D

Mariners: 9H 4D

 

The Flop Was 6H 5H 4C a week later

 

The Twins made a small bet

 

The Turn was a jack of clubs a week after that

 

The Twins Checked

 

The Riverbrian was 7 of Spades a month after that

 

We hit a gut shot

 

GUT SHOT BABY!!!!

Twins had the best hand preflop, best hand after the flop. Should have pushed all in!

[ashbury]

 

Twins had the best hand preflop, best hand after the flop. Should have pushed all in!

And this demonstrates why I didn't even bother constructing sample hands.

 

Next analogy I'm working on: Hannibal crossing the Alps. It'll be a good one, if I can just work out a couple of pesky final details about what elephants eat. Stay tuned.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They went too light in their offseason additions and were too cautious at the deadline. At the very least they could have held.

It wasn't a travesty, but they were wrong evaluating their talent relative to the league at all points so far.

I'm optimistic about a good offseason, but that is based more on hope and a general trusting of their process, not based on anything they have actually done with the roster.

I guess I see your point but disagree that the front office was wrong in anything but results. Even if you expected an 85 win team to make the postseason (and expecting every team to essentially collapse in one variety or another), the Twins were pretty unlikely to reach that very modest win total (a total that usually leaves your team 2-3 games out of the second WC spot).

 

And, to me, what matters is process. You can't predict anomalous results so you go with the numbers. Going with the numbers may result in minor losses over the short term but in the long term, you'll come out ahead.

[old nurse]

 

Twins had the best hand preflop, best hand after the flop. Should have pushed all in!

Houston and Cleveland had the best hands and it wasn't even close.

[drjim]

 

I guess I see your point but disagree that the front office was wrong in anything but results. Even if you expected an 85 win team to make the postseason (and expecting every team to essentially collapse in one variety or another), the Twins were pretty unlikely to reach that very modest win total (a total that usually leaves your team 2-3 games out of the second WC spot).

 

And, to me, what matters is process. You can't predict anomalous results so you go with the numbers. Going with the numbers may result in minor losses over the short term but in the long term, you'll come out ahead.

 

Sure, and I understand this position.

 

I really thought they should have aimed higher in the offseason for a better reliever and I thought they should have done a soft add at the deadline. If you do little and stay conservative it does become a self-fulfilling plan. Even if they wouldn't have made the playoffs at 85 wins, which is a not unreasonable position to have, I would argue there was benefit to have the young guys play meaningful games until the end of the year as they attempt to build on it going forward. There was no reason to buy hard, and I wasn't especially offended by the Garcia transactions, but the Kintzler trade seemed so pointless.

 

I'm actually quite impressed they didn't go sideways after selling at the deadline. If they had kind of went in the tank, especially by blowing 3-4 late games out of the deadline, it would have been a missed opportunity.

 

To me it wasn't just the results, I thought there was secondary gain to be had by having competitive games through the end of the season. And I don't think the modest gain of the Kintzler trade was enough to potentially sacrifice that. And I would have reinforced that potential gain with a modest buy.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Falvey's objective is to build a sustainable, championship-caliber team season after season. People seem to be under the impression that World Series appearances are a given--False. Don't count on the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians and other teams folding up when they see what a great process the Twins are following.

 

Even during these future glory years, the Twins will many times find themselves playing for a wild card berth anyway.

[USAFChief]

Houston and Cleveland had the best hands and it wasn't even close.

The post in question had zero to do with Clevelanf or Houston. It referenced the Twins and 5 other wild card contenders.

 

And said post gave the Twins pockets 8s, which was the best hand pre flop, and ended up winning the pot, as the best hand preflop often does.

[gunnarthor]

I think this offseason will tell us a lot about the new FO but I don't think we can give them a lot of credit for what they've done so far. Some credit, sure.

[old nurse]

 

The post in question had zero to do with Clevelanf or Houston. It referenced the Twins and 5 other wild card contenders.

And said post gave the Twins pockets 8s, which was the best hand pre flop, and ended up winning the pot, as the best hand preflop often does.

I merely pointed out the fatal flaw in the whole line of thinking.  The game had other players

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think this offseason will tell us a lot about the new FO but I don't think we can give them a lot of credit for what they've done so far. Some credit, sure.

Yeah. Most of the changes they’ve made are either hard to quantify (coaching changes/additions) or won’t impact the MLB team for years (the draft).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I really thought they should have aimed higher in the offseason for a better reliever and I thought they should have done a soft add at the deadline. 

I absolutely agree with the bolded. It would have made the latter unnecessary, too.

 

At least it would have made a "soft add" unnecessary. The Twins would likely have been in the driver's seat for the second Wild Card (maybe even the first Wild Card) had they picked up a quality reliever, which would only have set them back $8m a season for 2-3 seasons.

[dgwills]

 

Twins had the best hand preflop, best hand after the flop. Should have pushed all in!

I think you forgot the Astro's had 9,8 and the Indians had AA.

[Doomtints]

 

In a very short period of time.

 

They showed me that they are willing to support a team worth supporting and willing to rebuild a team worth rebuilding. 

 

After the year after year of my foot has fallen asleep trade deadlines under Terry Ryan and staff.

 

How this can be seen by anyone as anything other than refreshing is beyond me.  

 

I have been in enough board room meetings to recognize something that would come up and be heavily discussed/scrutinized. Buying and then selling within a few days of one another would be one of those things.

 

But it's a learning process. They will learn to not have these knee jerk reactions in the future. If they are truly not sure if they are ready to buy, they won't. And they certainly won't sell after a bad road series against the best team in the NL a few days later.

 

Would Ryan buy/sell so quickly? No, he would just sell or do nothing. But is "different" necessarily better? Of course not. Buying followed by selling is the same as doing nothing!

Edited November 20, 2017 by Doomtints

[howieramone2]

 

I'm optimistic this offseason, but the front office really hasn't shown much other than the ability to continually underestimate and misjudge the talent on the roster relative to the rest of the league.

Can you share specific examples with the board? Off hand, I can't think of one.

[howieramone2]

 

They went too light in their offseason additions and were too cautious at the deadline. At the very least they could have held.

It wasn't a travesty, but they were wrong evaluating their talent relative to the league at all points so far.

I'm optimistic about a good offseason, but that is based more on hope and a general trusting of their process, not based on anything they have actually done with the roster.

This is simply not true and do you really believe you have the time and expertise necessary to judge our favorite team vs. the rest of the league?   Easy to say, impossible to prove.

Edited November 20, 2017 by howieramone2