Article: Supplementing The Twins: A Rotation Trio

[Thrylos]

 

I disagree.
Gordon would probably have to be the 3rd most valuable piece to even get them to answer the phone on Archer.
Something like Kepler, Lewis, Gordon and Gonsalves would be a start, then probably a high upside add like Enlow, Thorpe or Baddoo.

 

Too much.   If you look at the Verlander trade, it took 2 prospects ranked between 50-100 and a C type prospect. 

Archer is more valuable, but Kepler is more valuable than a 50-100 ranked prospect.  There is no way the Twins trade Royce Lewis.

Kepler, Gordon, and Gonsalves is more than the Astros paid for Verlander.  Probably a fourth piece, like Felix Jorge or an A level prospect like Lachlan Wells needs to be added, but that core is fine.

Edited October 27, 2017 by Thrylos

[Dantes929]

 

talk you down from being happy? Never.

Well,.. we haven't exactly signed him yet.    

[Thrylos]

 

 

My guess is it's probably harder than it sounds.

(Also, Santana was rule v, Liriano came in an off season trade, Hughes put up 6 fWAR in the first year of his contract. So yes, they actually have acquired high quality pitching in off season transactions since 1992. You actually don't need to guess about this.)

 

Santana and Liriano had zero innings pitched as major leaguers.  And took them 2-3 seasons to have an impact.  I am talking about veteran top of the rotation pitchers.

[prouster]

Santana and Liriano had zero innings pitched as major leaguers. And took them 2-3 seasons to have an impact. I am talking about veteran top of the rotation pitchers.

Got it. The only examples that count are the ones that support your argument. I'll use those going forward.

 

Anyway, I think Cobb would be a nice get. I agree with others who would rather see them allocate FA dollars to the bullpen.

Edited October 27, 2017 by prouster

[Mr. Brooks]

Too much. If you look at the Verlander trade, it took 2 prospects ranked between 50-100 and a C type prospect.

Archer is more valuable, but Kepler is more valuable than a 50-100 ranked prospect. There is no way the Twins trade Royce Lewis.

Kepler, Gordon, and Gonsalves is more than the Astros paid for Verlander. Probably a fourth piece, like Felix Jorge or an A level prospect like Lachlan Wells needs to be added, but that core is fine.

Verlander and Archer aren't even remotely comparable.

For one, you don't get any surplus salary value with Verlander. Archer gives you a ton.

Verlander is unlikely to provide value 2 or 3 years from now as Archer is.

Finally, the Astros were likely either lone bidders, or bidding against 1 or 2 other teams, due to the NTC. Archer going on the block would have probably a dozen or more teams making serious offers.

[Mr. Brooks]

So, a starting 3 WARish RF, three top 100 prospects (two in the top 40) and a high end lottery ticket? That seems a bit high for Archer.

 

Archer's a solid pitcher but fWAR likes him a lot more than bWAR (which considered him a 1.2 WAR pitcher last year).

Yes, that is what I think it would take if Archer hit the open market, with a dozen or more teams bidding against each other.

There is just so much surplus value in that contract, and good young pitching is so hard to acquire.

[Dantes929]

 

Based on the fact that the last time a top of the rotation pitcher was acquired in an off-season was in 1991 via free agency and in 1992 via trade, a good guess is that has not happened lately... 

As I pointed out earlier that top of the rotation pitcher you refer to was 36 and had a prior two year record of 21-32 with an ERA north of 4.5.     If you had been the GM at the time you would have said what is the point of signing a washed up veteran if he  is not going to win a WS for us and held out for and not gotten Welsh Clemens or Stewart.    Just two years ago KC won it all without even a sniff of a top of the rotation guy.   We have just seen in these playoffs aces getting shelled and best bullpens in baseball getting rocked.    Yeah, I'll take my chances in the playoffs but without giving up on them just because of your notions on what it takes to advance.  All #2 and 3 type pitchers are capable of throwing like aces for periods of time and I would be happy to get as many as possible and would not feel like it was throwing in the towel and resigning the team to mediocrity if we didn't have any of what you considered to be an ace.     

[Deduno Abides]

What about trading Sano for de Grom? Who hangs up?

[Thrylos]

 

What about trading Sano for de Grom? Who hangs up?

 

Twins

[Deduno Abides]

Twins

 

You wanted high end controllable pitching. deGrom has been more valuable each year of Sano’s career. Who would you want for Sano?

[bobs]

 

I disagree.
Gordon would probably have to be the 3rd most valuable piece to even get them to answer the phone on Archer.
Something like Kepler, Lewis, Gordon and Gonsalves would be a start, then probably a high upside add like Enlow, Thorpe or Baddoo.

That seems like a package that would net you Kershaw or Kluber if those teams were building like the Rays are.  Regardless, I doubt the Twins would pay the package it would take to get Archer.  I'm just tired of settling for middling pitchers just b/c they're better than what we already have.  Maybe we just need to be patient and see what Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero, Berrios become before we decide how many starters we need to try and sign.

[bobs]

One thing is clear.  The playoffs have shown that you aren't advancing if you don't have an ace.  So, the dilemna then becomes how do you get one?  Do you wait and hope Berrios or Romero become one?  Gonsalves isn't projected to be that type of pitcher.  Do you go out and pay for one?  Difficult in a mid-market.  Or do you give up assets to get one?  I'd at least check in on Archer.  Falvine seem to have a pretty good feel for value, since they didn't give away Dozier or Santana for dimes on the dollar, so I trust they know what is "too much" for a guy like him.

[bobs]

Some here are talking bullpen help as well.  So, here's a question for everyone.  Is Trevor May a solid enough addition to the 'pen next year to warrant allocating FA dollars to a starter or is that too much of a risk coming off TJ.  Can they trust him to be a setup man coming off surgery?  Or even the closer?

[Vanimal46]

 

Some here are talking bullpen help as well.  So, here's a question for everyone.  Is Trevor May a solid enough addition to the 'pen next year to warrant allocating FA dollars to a starter or is that too much of a risk coming off TJ.  Can they trust him to be a setup man coming off surgery?  Or even the closer?

 

I don't think it's smart to plan on any positive production from May in 2018. Too many variables that could go wrong 1 year removed from a major surgery. 

[gunnarthor]

 

You wanted high end controllable pitching. deGrom has been more valuable each year of Sano’s career. Who would you want for Sano?

Why trade Sano? The idea is you want to build around the current ML nucleus of Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Berrios. That's your foundation. You trade other guys to help that foundation. Twins have enough parts to do that if they wanted to without taking one of those guys.

[beckmt]

Why trade Sano? The idea is you want to build around the current ML nucleus of Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Berrios. That's your foundation. You trade other guys to help that foundation. Twins have enough parts to do that if they wanted to without taking one of those guys.

He is the least likely to sign an extension, and highest upside to get you a front line starter with multiple years of control left.

[Mr. Brooks]

That seems like a package that would net you Kershaw or Kluber if those teams were building like the Rays are. Regardless, I doubt the Twins would pay the package it would take to get Archer. I'm just tired of settling for middling pitchers just b/c they're better than what we already have. Maybe we just need to be patient and see what Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero, Berrios become before we decide how many starters we need to try and sign.

If Kershaw or Kluber became available, the package would have to start with nothing less than one of Buxton/Sano.

[Thrylos]

 

You wanted high end controllable pitching. deGrom has been more valuable each year of Sano’s career. Who would you want for Sano?

 

deGrom is 29, at his peak; Sano is 24, before his peak.  DeGrom has a good 4-5 years of peak left on him, Sano has 10 or so. 

 

This is a huge consideration, as far as value goes.

 

I cannot find an acceptable trade package for Sano with a single team.  Might take Rendon and Strasburg, but Strasburg's contract is a mess...

 

(And the Nationals would not do that...)

Edited October 27, 2017 by Thrylos

[Deduno Abides]

Why trade Sano? The idea is you want to build around the current ML nucleus of Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Berrios. That's your foundation. You trade other guys to help that foundation. Twins have enough parts to do that if they wanted to without taking one of those guys.

If you want to get a front line starter in a trade, you have to offer something valuable in return, not one 2 WAR outfielder or a top 100 minor leaguer and a pupu platter of C+ prospects.

Edited October 27, 2017 by Deduno Abides

[Deduno Abides]

deGrom is 29, at his peak; Sano is 24, before his peak. DeGrom has a good 4-5 years of peak left on him, Sano has 10 or so.

 

This is a huge consideration, as far as value goes.

 

I cannot find an acceptable trade package for Sano with a single team. Might take Rendon and Strasburg, but Strasburg's contract is a mess...

 

(And the Nationals would not do that...)

Yeesh, I don’t think anyone is going to trade an MVP candidate (gold glove candidate and better hitter than Sano) and an ace for Sano’s perceived blue sky. Sano is a fine player, but he hasn’t even been able to stay healthy for a whole year or distinguish himself in the field, and has already had TJ.

 

You wouldn’t even take Severino for Sano?

 

Also, I like your long-term thinking, but most people on TD, myself included, would probably be satisfied with maximizing the next five years and worry less about the years after that.

Edited October 27, 2017 by Deduno Abides

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeesh, I don’t think anyone is going to trade an MVP candidate (gold glove candidate and better hitter than Sano) and an ace for Sano’s perceived blue sky. Sano is a fine player, but he hasn’t even been able to stay healthy for a whole year or distinguish himself in the field, and has already had TJ.

 

You wouldn’t even take Severino for Sano?

 

Also, I like your long-term thinking, but most people on TD, myself included, would probably be satisfied with maximizing the next five years and worry less about the years after that.

Sano actually has a higher career OPS+ than Rendon, despite being 3 years younger.

I'm not trying to diminish Rendon, but calling him the better hitter is debatable.

 

EDIT: Autocorrect kept changing Rendon to Tendon!

Edited October 28, 2017 by Mr. Brooks

[Deduno Abides]

Sano actually has a higher career OPS+ than Rendon, despite being 3 years younger.

I'm not trying to diminish Rendon, but calling him the better hitter is debatable.

EDIT: Autocorrect kept changing Rendon to Tendon!

I’ll see your stat and raise you one: in each of the last two years, Rendon had a higher wRC+ and wOBA.

 

Regardless of their relative offense, Washington would probably not trade Rendon straight up for Sano, much less in a package with Strasburg.

[jimmer]

Sano has half the PAs Rendon has.

 

Rendon gets him in BA and OBP and strikes out WAAAAAAAAY less. Rendon has less strikeouts in his career than Sano did in his first half season in the majors. Rendon is also way better of a defender.

 

Sano has Rendon on power.

 

Edited October 28, 2017 by jimmer

[Mr. Brooks]

I’ll see your stat and raise you one: in each of the last two years, Rendon had a higher wRC+ and wOBA.

 

Regardless of their relative offense, Washington would probably not trade Rendon straight up for Sano, much less in a package with Strasburg.

Well limiting it to the last 2 years is a bit unfair, given their ages.

No, they wouldn't package him with Strasburg, but we'll have to agree to disagree on straight up Rendon/Sano.

Rendon is a really good player, don't get me wrong, but Sano is going to put up monumental offensive numbers when he's the age that Rendon is now. And he's obviously under control for a long time yet.

[jimmer]

 

but Sano is going to put up monumental offensive numbers when he's the age that Rendon is now. And he's obviously under control for a long time yet.

Assuming he stays healthy and stays in playing shape (assuming one thinks he's in playing shape now).

Edited October 28, 2017 by jimmer

[Deduno Abides]

Well limiting it to the last 2 years is a bit unfair, given their ages.

No, they wouldn't package him with Strasburg, but we'll have to agree to disagree on straight up Rendon/Sano.

Rendon is a really good player, don't get me wrong, but Sano is going to put up monumental offensive numbers when he's the age that Rendon is now. And he's obviously under control for a long time yet.

The last two years are the only ones both are in the majors. Sano’s best offensive season was his rookie year, a partial season.

 

I hope you’re right about Sano’s future and that it happens with the Twins. However, because of the projection, he’s the most realistic trade piece right now to get a front line pitcher.

[IndianaTwin]

Ultimately, without knowing the parameters of contract, it's hard to make a suggestion. So, if you can get any two of the above on good contracts that save money for some bullpen help, sure. But otherwise...

 

For my first signing, I'd like to see either Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn, with probably a slight edge to Cobb because 1) I think he'll be cheaper, 2) he's been in the A.L.; and 3) I think he has the best chance of being a stud as he continues the return from surgery. I do like that Lynn has had one of the quickest and fullest bouncebacks from Tommy John that I can remember.

For my second signing, I'll go with... Kyle Gibson. By that, I mean that in July we assumed we'd non-tender him and need to sign two starters. But with the way he pitched the last two months, the logical thing seems to be keep him around. Between Guardado, Castro, and even Molitor, they've been able to see what's been working the second half.

 

In addition, by all accounts, one thing the new regime seems to have done well is hire coaches (Rowson, Pickler, Smith), so I would like to trust the hire of Alston and give him the chance to keep the Gibson progression getting him back to 2015 Gibson or better. Said another way, I'd rather have them building on the known strengths with Gibson vs. having everybody on the staff starting from scratch with a project.

 

(And it's also a bonus that running out Gibson seems to turn all the hitters into Babe Ruth!)

 

Though it doesn't have an ace yet, a rotation that starts the season with Cobb, Santana, and Berrios up front means that Mejia and Gibson are now bringing up the back end, with May and the herd of young guys ready to backfill as they are needed/ready. August/September (or better) Gibson is a pretty good No. 5. In Cobb and Berrios, Alston would have two chances to finish developing a borderline ace.

 

And while, with that list of guys, I'm not keen on dumpster diving, one guy I'd consider is Chris Tillman on a one-year, make-good, incentive-laden contract.

 

Edited October 28, 2017 by IndianaTwin

[Deduno Abides]

Assuming he stays healthy and stays in playing shape (assuming one thinks he's in playing shape now).

Spring training 2013

[Thrylos]

 

 

I hope you’re right about Sano’s future and that it happens with the Twins. However, because of the projection, he’s the most realistic trade piece right now to get a front line pitcher.

 

Not really.  The Twins just drafted Buxton's replacement at 1-1 last season, and can afford to sign someone like Carlos Gomez to replace him until he is ready.

 

Add Dozier and Santana, and there are a lot of pieces that are easier replaceable than Sano, who can land front line pitchers...

 

 

[Deduno Abides]

Not really. The Twins just drafted Buxton's replacement at 1-1 last season, and can afford to sign someone like Carlos Gomez to replace him until he is ready.

 

Add Dozier and Santana, and there are a lot of pieces that are easier replaceable than Sano, who can land front line pitchers...

Sorry. Nobody is going to tolerate four years of Carlos Gomez while waiting for Lewis to become a 5 WAR player, if it even happens, and you’re definitely not going to win anything if Gomez is your centerfielder.

 

Didn’t the Twins already establish what they can get for Dozier and Santana, and in Dozier’s case it was a possible front line AAA pitcher, by himself, and Santana didn’t get anything worth pursuing? Throwing Santana into a Dozier trade would not change the return from Jose de Leon into Noah Syndergaard, and would simultaneously weaken two positions.

 

Probably my last comment. You can have the last word.

Edited October 28, 2017 by Deduno Abides