Article: Supplementing the Twins: Tyler Chatwood

[gunnarthor]

 

The post isn’t about what people want; it’s about what the players can do. Signing pitchers who aren’t better than the #4 on the Yankees, Astros, Indians, Dodgers, 2017 Cubs and Nationals may help a team make the playoffs, but they’ll barely improve the chances of winning in the playoffs. For example, even if both Lynn and Chatwood were on the 2017 Twins, the Twins would have still lost the WC game. The goal should be to develop a great team, not just one that is a “Just get into the playoffs and it’s a crapshoot” team, especially now that the big buck teams are much smarter about managing their resources.

If the Twins had more reliable back end of the rotation, they might not have been in the wild card game. They had a solid front of the rotation in Santana and Berrios.  By both bWAR and fWAR, Ervin Santana would have been the second best pitcher on the Yankees. So we had a shot. They just need a better staff for a season and not a one game playoff. That can be done several ways. It's not realistic though to expect the Pohlads to pay for Darvish. You need a different plan.

[Thrylos]

 

 

  By both bWAR and fWAR, Ervin Santana would have been the second best pitcher on the Yankees. So we had a shot.

 

Not quite.  Santana as a whole might had the second best season on the Yankees (because that is what WAR measures) but would not be the second best pitcher in the Yankees. Cumulative stats like WAR are influenced by IP.  And Santana pitched a whole bunch of them, thus the higher WAR.  

 

For the post season you are really looking at pitchers' abilities to judge who will give you the best likelihood to win in a single game,  so the numbers you need to use are something like FIP, K-BB%, etc. and not cumulative. 

Santana's 4.46 FIP would be 4th among Yankee starters, just above Sabathia's 4.49, and his 12.3 K-BB% would be 5th among Yankee starters...

Edited October 20, 2017 by Thrylos

[notoriousgod71]

I do not understand any of the excitement over this guy.

 

People said signing Lynn would be Nolasco 2.0.

 

THIS is Nolasco 2.0.

 

At least Lynn has been successful in his career. Chatwood just screams Twins pitcher. Approximately a hit per inning, one homerun per 9,1.40+ WHIP, FIP around 4.50 and never pitched enough innings to qualify for an ERA title (not that he would ever sniff one).

 

Sounds like Dillon Gee to me.

[tvagle]

Greatest thing about the off-season and Twins Daily is being able to dream and have those dreams smashed by reality...or several posters with a different dream

 

If's and But's aside...it's time to make a run at a true #1 that MAY increase the odds of landing a PROJECTED can't miss Pitch/Hitter

 

In this screenshot of the Twins Payroll Tool the Young Core gets extensions...Old Dogs get resigned...a #1 Pitcher gets overpaid and you can pick who's best to re-sign in 2024

 

 

I would think $25M for 5 years would at least get a seat at the Darvish Thanksgiving Day Table?

Edited October 20, 2017 by tvagle

[nicksaviking]

I really think the Twins should stay away from calculated risk plays in FA.... Just go out and get a good pitcher. Bite the bullet and pay for it.

I'd like a front line guy but is there one in free agency aside from Darvish?

[nicksaviking]

"develop better pitchers" doesn't help next year.

That might just end up being the hand we're dealt. The free agent crop is terrible outside of one pitcher all 30 teams want. I hope there are trades available, but we'll never really know who's actually for sale.

 

I'm not at all being a defeatist particularly after seeing this team make the post season this year, but I don't want cosmetic fixes now just so some one can pretend and act like they tried.

[Monkeypaws]

Getting Darvish just isn't gonna happen, and that isn't a bad thing.

 

I wanna see Falvine put their magic to work and unearth some hidden gems.

 

Hell, Santana was a rule 5 guy. Liriano part of a package deal for a vet. Cubs got Arrieta and Strop for Clevinger and Feldman.

 

I know fans here are tired of the scrapheap approach, but I find that much more satisfying when it works than throwing giant wads of money around. That isn't in the Twins DNA.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Monkeypaws

[tvagle]

 

...I know fans here are tired of the scrapheap approach, but I find that much more satisfying when it works than throwing giant wads of money around. That isn't in the Twins DNA.

 

Neither is winning a playoff game let alone a series...this fan is tired of waiting, i'm ready for anything different or new to the off-season approach

[Mr. Brooks]

Greatest thing about the off-season and Twins Daily is being able to dream and have those dreams smashed by reality...or several posters with a different dream

 

If's and But's aside...it's time to make a run at a true #1 that MAY increase the odds of landing a PROJECTED can't miss Pitch/Hitter

 

In this screenshot of the Twins Payroll Tool the Young Core gets extensions...Old Dogs get resigned...a #1 Pitcher gets overpaid and you can pick who's best to re-sign in 2024

 

 

 

I would think $25M for 5 years would at least get a seat at the Darvish Thanksgiving Day Table?

No, 5/25 doesn't even come close to getting a seat, IMO.

[tvagle]

5/25 seems like it might based on this from Jason Churchill

 

,,,It's unlikely Darvish matches the deal Zack Greinke signed two years ago -- $206.5M over six years -- but a deal somewhere between the contract extension Stephen Strasburg inked with the Nationals -- 7 Years, $175M -- and Johnny Cueto's six-year, $130 million pact with the Giants last winter is a reasonable expectation.

 

Strasburg - $175/7 = $25M AAV

Cueto - $130/6 = $21.67M AAV

 

PREDICTION: Yankees -- 6 Years, $152M  $25.33 AAV

 

May have to add a few years but $25M seems to at least be in the same Area Code

[old nurse]

 

 

 

I would think $25M for 5 years would at least get a seat at the Darvish Thanksgiving Day Table?

The 25 for 5 is a start, it is the other 125 for 5 that is the killer

[DocBauer]

IMO, the question is not whether the Twins could or would sign Darvish, or whether he's sign with the Twins. Would I like to see it? You bet! Should they at least pick up the phone? Absolutely!

 

To me the question is, would Lynn, solid career and a year removed from surgery, be a "Santana" level/quality signing? If the answer is yes, or close to yes, he would be a smart move to join Santana and the still developing/improving Berrios to form a solid first 3. Gibson is 4, Mejia, May and open auditions fill the 5th spot.

 

I think it was Brock that said something to the affect fairly recently about a strong bullpen and a deep rotation...not containing a true ACE...was a pretty good idea. I have to concur.

[Deduno Abides]

If the Twins had more reliable back end of the rotation, they might not have been in the wild card game. They had a solid front of the rotation in Santana and Berrios. By both bWAR and fWAR, Ervin Santana would have been the second best pitcher on the Yankees. So we had a shot. They just need a better staff for a season and not a one game playoff. That can be done several ways. It's not realistic though to expect the Pohlads to pay for Darvish. You need a different plan.

Well, sure, if the busted mid-tier multi-million dollar pitchers they already had had pitched better, they would have had a better record, but (a) they were 17 games back of Cleveland, so that’s a lot of wishful thinking to say that upgrading #4 and #5 would have bridged that gap; and Chatwood and Lynn combined for 2.5 fWAR, which is only 1.5 fWAR more than Mejia by himself, so their impact would be tiny. Still the #2 WC team. Replacing Hughes and Santiago with Lynn and Chatwood would mostly just extend the duration of deadweight contracts.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Deduno Abides

[DocBauer]

Well, sure, if the busted mid-tier multi-million dollar pitchers they already had had pitched better, they would have had a better record, but (a) they were 17 games back of Cleveland, so that’s a lot of wishful thinking to say that upgrading #4 and #5 would have bridged that gap; and Chatwood and Lynn combined for 2.5 fWAR, which is only 1.5 fWAR more than Mejia by himself, so their impact would be tiny. Still the #2 WC team. Replacing Hughes and Santiago with Lynn and Chatwood would mostly just extend the duration of deadweight contracts.

Absolutely agree with this. However, I don't think the answer would be both Lynn and Chatwood. You still have Mejia, maybe May, and other prospects getting close. You don't want that "dead weight" as you put it. But deciding on one good, solid guy to deepen the rotation is a solid move, IMO. (Assuming no ACE signing or trade). You want a reliable and reasonable chance to win every day. Improving the pen also assists with this, of course. But it still comes down to a solid SP option on the hill daily, doesn't it?

 

I keep thinking, who is the guy out there that doesn't break the bank but can be another Santana signing? I wish I had a crystal ball to make that determination. I hope Falvey and Levine have one. Best I can offer is an old magic 8 ball that I don't trust. Lol

[tvagle]

 

I wish I had a crystal ball to make that determination. I hope Falvey and Levine have one. Best I can offer is an old magic 8 ball that I don't trust. Lol

● Reply hazy try again
● Ask again later
● Better not tell you now
● Cannot predict now
● Concentrate and ask again

[DocBauer]

● Reply hazy try again

● Ask again later

● Better not tell you now

● Cannot predict now

● Concentrate and ask again

Holy crap! Sounds like my love life! Damn you magic 8 ball!

[nicksaviking]

IMO, the question is not whether the Twins could or would sign Darvish, or whether he's sign with the Twins. Would I like to see it? You bet! Should they at least pick up the phone? Absolutely!

To me the question is, would Lynn, solid career and a year removed from surgery, be a "Santana" level/quality signing? If the answer is yes, or close to yes, he would be a smart move to join Santana and the still developing/improving Berrios to form a solid first 3. Gibson is 4, Mejia, May and open auditions fill the 5th spot.

I think it was Brock that said something to the affect fairly recently about a strong bullpen and a deep rotation...not containing a true ACE...was a pretty good idea. I have to concur.

I think this team needs to do better than shooting for another Santana, and in my view Lynn, an NL lifer with middling strikeout numbers isn't as good as Santana.

 

The problem with these second or third tier starters like Lynn, Cobb, Santana, Nolasco, Pelfrey and Hughes is that they've had just enough success to get rewarded with a multi-year big-time deal so they're going to stick with what they know and what got them there; they aren't going to get better, you just have to pray they don't get worse.

 

You want to get a guy who has the ability to lead a staff but Darvish won't come near Minnesota? Buy or trade for the guys who at one time had promise but who have recently struggled yet still have good stuff. The guys who find success after having had their teeth kicked in yet had too much pride not to keep pushing or to try another approach are the guys who make the difference for clubs who can't get the big names.

[The Wise One]

Is Chatwood away from Coors better than Mejia or Gibson?  He has a career ERA  below 4 away from Coors. That gives the team a little better chance to win than those two have given the team. 

[beckmt]

Maybe I can break this down for you.

You are wasting the best years of a bunch of good young players trying to develop pitching.

2. If you were Sano or Buxton would you sign an extension with the Twins when you are unlikely to ever see an AL league championship series.

3. You need to tell your young core you are committed to winning.

4. This year pitching will be cheaper than next year, there are several big market teams trying to get under the luxury tax, so they can have a big spending spree next year.

5. Talent after next year is probably going to be a one in 10 year item. A large number of very talented players are going to be eligible for free agency.

6.  Prices in the 2018 - 2019 offseason are going to reset the mlb payroll scale.

7. Twins do not want to have to be in that market.

8. Sign you top players this year where the market price is less and look for the bargins next year. 

[Deduno Abides]

"develop better pitchers" doesn't help next year.

Why not? They have more good quality starters in the high minors than they’ve had for years, plus some young starters with the big team that hopefully can improve. The odds of a few pitchers from that group developing - at a significantly lower cost - are much better than winning playoff games with pitchers like Lance Lynn and Tyler Chatwood, both of whom probably wouldn’t make their current teams’ 2018 rotations.

 

It also keeps payroll flexibility to get top quality players when they are available.

 

P.S. If the Twins could raise their odds of winning in the playoffs in 2018 from 5% to 10%, but it would prevent them from increasing their odds in later years, OR they could keep their 2018 odds at 5% but increase their odds in 2019 and later years to 25%, which would people prefer?

[Deduno Abides]

Absolutely agree with this. However, I don't think the answer would be both Lynn and Chatwood. You still have Mejia, maybe May, and other prospects getting close. You don't want that "dead weight" as you put it. But deciding on one good, solid guy to deepen the rotation is a solid move, IMO. (Assuming no ACE signing or trade). You want a reliable and reasonable chance to win every day. Improving the pen also assists with this, of course. But it still comes down to a solid SP option on the hill daily, doesn't it?

I keep thinking, who is the guy out there that doesn't break the bank but can be another Santana signing? I wish I had a crystal ball to make that determination. I hope Falvey and Levine have one. Best I can offer is an old magic 8 ball that I don't trust. Lol

Smart, successful teams are either (1) developing their own pitchers, like Kershaw, Severino, Kuechel and Strasburg; (2) finding cheap pitchers who can improve, like Arrieta, Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco, Hendricks, Wood and Morton; or (3) signing or trading for aces, like Scherzer, Sabathia, Quintana, Lester and Verlander.

 

Nobody is winning by signing 30 year-old starters who they hope can get to 3 WAR if everything goes right. The only possible exception is when you have a dominant, lights-out bullpen, like the Royals did, but even their mediocre free agent veteran, Edinson Volquez, had a higher ceiling than the non-Darvish free agents discussed recently and was signed to a 2/20 contract, which puts him in the “cheap” range.

[gunnarthor]

 

Smart, successful teams are either (1) developing their own pitchers, like Kershaw, Severino, Kuechel and Strasburg; (2) finding cheap pitchers who can improve, like Arrieta, Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco, Hendricks, Wood and Morton; or (3) signing or trading for aces, like Scherzer, Sabathia, Quintana, Lester and Verlander.

Nobody is winning by signing 30 year-old starters who they hope can get to 3 WAR if everything goes right. The only possible exception is when you have a dominant, lights-out bullpen, like the Royals did, but even their mediocre free agent veteran, Edinson Volquez, had a higher ceiling than the non-Darvish free agents discussed recently and was signed to a 2/20 contract, which puts him in the “cheap” range.

The Twins have Berrios who was pretty well regarded prospect and had a pretty nice season. They also have four starting pitchers in AA or above that have been top 100 guys on some list - Thorpe, Gonsalves, Romero and Stewart. Only Thorpe wasn't on a top 100 list last year although Stewart probably isn't this year. They could combine a few of those with Gordon to make a solid trade. They could see how they develop and mix them in next year.

 

Basically, the Twins have options if they want. What they don't have the ability to do is sign Darvish.

 

But you're main problem is suggesting that the Twins follow a blueprint of the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros or Nats.  Those teams are spending way, way more than the Twins.

Edited October 21, 2017 by gunnarthor

[Mr. Brooks]

The Twins have Berrios who was pretty well regarded prospect and had a pretty nice season. They also have four starting pitchers in AA or above that have been top 100 guys on some list - Thorpe, Gonsalves, Romero and Stewart. Only Thorpe wasn't on a top 100 list last year although Stewart probably isn't this year. They could combine a few of those with Gordon to make a solid trade. They could see how they develop and mix them in next year.

 

Basically, the Twins have options if they want. What they don't have the ability to do is sign Darvish.

 

But you're main problem is suggesting that the Twins follow a blueprint of the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros or Nats. Those teams are spending way, way more than the Twins.

Why do you have the Astros on that list?

Houston's opening day payrolls, last 3 seasons:

2017: $124 million

2016: $96 million

2015: $72 million

 

If the refrain is that we can't spend like those wild crazy Astros, then just fold the shop right now.

[jimmer]

 

Why do you have the Astros on that list?
Houston's opening day payrolls, last 3 seasons:
2017: $124 million
2016: $96 million
2015: $72 million

If the refrain is that we can't spend like those wild crazy Astros, then just fold the shop right now.

This is funny.  It's funny cause it's true :-)

[Deduno Abides]

The Twins have Berrios who was pretty well regarded prospect and had a pretty nice season. They also have four starting pitchers in AA or above that have been top 100 guys on some list - Thorpe, Gonsalves, Romero and Stewart. Only Thorpe wasn't on a top 100 list last year although Stewart probably isn't this year. They could combine a few of those with Gordon to make a solid trade. They could see how they develop and mix them in next year.

 

Basically, the Twins have options if they want. What they don't have the ability to do is sign Darvish.

 

But you're main problem is suggesting that the Twins follow a blueprint of the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros or Nats.  Those teams are spending way, way more than the Twins.

Seriously? The Cubs have one pitcher they paid a lot of money to get - Lester. Otherwise, it’s cheap trade (Arrieta), cheap trade (Hendricks), trade (Quintana) and short-term FA (Lackey). Their spot starter was also acquired via cheap trade (Montgomery).

 

The Dodgers’ most expensive FA is Rich Hill, at 3/48.

 

The Nats have one expensive FA (Scherzer).

 

Kershaw and Strasburg are home grown stars.

 

Verlander (trade) is the most expensive pitcher on the Astros.

 

Sabathia is old Yankees.

 

Lester, Scherzer and Verlander were acquired when the teams felt they were ready to compete, although Lester was a little early. That might be the only difference: the Twins can’t afford to sign an FA like Lester or Sabathia early. Otherwise, they should be able to trade prospects for a Verlander or Quintana when the time is right.

[nicksaviking]

Seriously? The Cubs have one pitcher they paid a lot of money to get - Lester. Otherwise, it’s cheap trade (Arrieta), cheap trade (Hendricks), trade (Quintana) and short-term FA (Lackey). Their spot starter was also acquired via cheap trade (Montgomery).

The Dodgers’ most expensive FA is Rich Hill, at 3/48.

The Nats have one expensive FA (Scherzer).

Kershaw and Strasburg are home grown stars.

Verlander (trade) is the most expensive pitcher on the Astros.

Sabathia is old Yankees.

Lester, Scherzer and Verlander were acquired when the teams felt they were ready to compete, although Lester was a little early. That might be the only difference: the Twins can’t afford to sign an FA like Lester or Sabathia early. Otherwise, they should be able to trade prospects for a Verlander or Quintana when the time is right.

Agree. It's more important for the acquisitions to be smart and projective then "safe" and presumptuous.

 

You're bringing a guy to a new team in a new ballpark with new coaches and a new atmosphere. Don't expect the same results.

[kab21]

Once again - How other teams did it isn't really relevant unless you are playing for 3-4 years down the road?

 

You have to assess where the Twins are right now and what is possible to be done in this offseason to improve the Twins without totally mortgaging the future.

 

Right now the Twins have a very shaky rotation with some very good but not great pitching prospects hitting AAA. We could get lucky and find a #3/4 next season or they could initially struggle for a year or two in the MLB like many rookies do. The reasonable upside of the pitchers is 'mid-rotation' although Romero has higher upside but considerably higher risk (injury or bullpen move). If your answer in this thread is 'to develop the pitching rotation' then we might have to rebuild in a couple of years as the current team's core starts getting close to FA and the rotation continues to hold the team back.

 

Signing/trading for a high upside but struggling arm (like Arrieta or Bauer) is great but this approach typically results in a getting a pitcher that continues to struggle and the continued blow-ups hurt the team. If it was easy to find an Arrieta then every team would have one. This should be viewed as a 'great if it works but not a significant part of then plan' option.

 

Signing/Trading for FA's is where this team is at. They absolutely need to add 1 (and depend on Gibson again next year) or 2 arms this offseason. There are options but ALL of them have negatives. Even Darvish. He has pitched A LOT and has had TJ recently. I think his payday goes higher than the mentioned 6/152 prediction. At some point people are going to need to actually name their preferred option and not just use a general: sign Darvish or develop better pitchers or find a diamond in the rough like Arrieta. None of those options are likely to help for next season.

I like potential for a Cole trade as structured in the other thread. I could live with Lynn as a fallback option and he would probably be my #3-5 pitching target this winter. 

Where does Chatwood fit into this? I see him as a riskier option that would be an alright second signing but I am inclined to roll the dice with Gibson (and his late season improvement) and Mejia in the #4/5 slots personally. Not excited about that but take note that there would be a bigger signing/trade in the rotation in this scenario.

 

If Chatwood is the best addition to the Twins rotation then my entire hope for the 2018 season is going to be based on the rotation WAY OUTPERFORMING expectations. Either Gibson or Chatwood pitch according to their Aug/Sept or road splits or Gonsalves/Romero are dynamite callups to replace whoever is struggling. This better not happen.

[jorgenswest]

Over three to four years, I think there is more upside in Chatwood than Lynn. Chatwood’s peripherals last year and age project to that better upside. I also wonder if remixing his pitch mix and sequence holds some unrealized value.

 

It might be best to pass on both and go after a pitcher that can lead in the playoffs. Go after Darvish. Seek Cole in a trade. Failing that wait until the deadline. At that point a prospect like Lewis may have taken another step forward and be the piece that can bring in that top pitcher.

 

Chatwood does have my interest though but it mainly relies on the possibility of unrealized value that may not be there. Signing a guy like this requires thorough homework and a talented staff.

[kab21]

 

Over three to four years, I think there is more upside in Chatwood than Lynn. Chatwood’s peripherals last year and age project to that better upside. I also wonder if remixing his pitch mix and sequence holds some unrealized value.

It might be best to pass on both and go after a pitcher that can lead in the playoffs. Go after Darvish. Seek Cole in a trade. Failing that wait until the deadline. At that point a prospect like Lewis may have taken another step forward and be the piece that can bring in that top pitcher.

Chatwood does have my interest though but it mainly relies on the possibility of unrealized value that may not be there. Signing a guy like this requires thorough homework and a talented staff.

I don't see a lot to like in his peripherals last season or any season. He has always had a high walk rate going all the way back to the minors. His home/away splits (peripherals) aren't great even though he had better results (ERA) on the road.

He is younger though. That is in his favor but I would prefer to gamble with Gibson on a 1 year arb contract than sign him to 3-4 years at 8-10 M/yr.

With Lynn the gamble is whether or not he fully returns to his pre TJ level. That level is higher upside than Chatwood has imo.

[gunnarthor]

 

Lester, Scherzer and Verlander were acquired when the teams felt they were ready to compete, although Lester was a little early. That might be the only difference: the Twins can’t afford to sign an FA like Lester or Sabathia early. Otherwise, they should be able to trade prospects for a Verlander or Quintana when the time is right.

The Twins can't afford a contract like Scherzer's or Lester's or Verlander's at all. It wasn't about the prospects, it was cost. The Pohlads aren't going to do this. We have 20+ years of history here. The Twins won't sign these guys. Comparing the Twins to the Dodgers, who were able to keep their multiple Cy Young winner while the Twins had to trade theirs away, isn't helpful. The Cubs are paying Arrieta 15.5m, Lackey 16m and Lester 25m this year. The Yankees have two FA starters making 22m or more, this year. The Astros could take on Verlander's salary.

 

Falvey was hired b/c ownership thinks he can create a cheap competitive team. Payroll will remain in the bottom third of the league. That means we're probably looking at 110m payroll. If we stretch it, it might get to 120 but I'd bet heavily against that. Ownership is going to use the old excuses about not signing longterm contracts to make sure they have money available for raises for our core. And then they'll let that core leave when the market resets next offseason.