Article: Supplementing the Twins: Lance Lynn

[Elliot]

The focus won't be on who they trade, but who they go after.  The twins can only work with the assets they have.  Not having the veteran trade options only means that they will have to use their minor/major league options.  Falvey will show his value in deciding which minor leaguers to trade and identifying younger, not yet established arms in other organizations.  At Cleveland they did not trade their veteran assets for other established veterans, but instead went after Corey Kluber types (admittedly not easy to find).  They have also been very limited in the FA route.

 

I expect that the offseason moves will not involve the names being kicked around, but will very likely be somewhat anonymous names coming back in return for minor leaguers that are identified as less likely to be stars at the major league level.

 

I do not think Lance Lynn will be a Nolasco disaster, but he might.  He might be an Ervin Santana success.  A good chance he is Hughes; a success for a year and then injured which seems to be the St Louis pattern.  No matter what, he will cost a lot in terms of both years and $, and will impact the rest of the team moves for years to come.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The point is that Lynn won't help the team much, so it doesn't make sense to pay him $90M to get one year when you hope he'll be a decent #4 (Berrios, Santana and trade deadline ace) and a few more years when you hope he doesn't decline too much. The point is NOT a general opposition to spending.

 

I guess if you think he's a 5 after next year, agreed, but why would you think that?

 

and, the post said basically not to add anyone, to wait and see what happens. did I read the post wrong?

[snap4birds]

Per this article, Lynn is looking for 5 years, 100 million plus.  That is why he is available, the Cardinals actually need some stability to their rotation, but don't want to pay that much.  My guess is, the Twins won't either.  Several teams will probably wait for that price to come down, the question is will some big-spending team take the risk? 

 

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/quick-hits-derrick-goold-on-the-cardinals/collection_0d4da0e4-8e8c-5f2e-9bbb-197bb11d5f65.html

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Per this article, Lynn is looking for 5 years, 100 million plus.  That is why he is available, the Cardinals actually need some stability to their rotation, but don't want to pay that much.  My guess is, the Twins won't either.  Several teams will probably wait for that price to come down, the question is will some big-spending team take the risk? 

 

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/quick-hits-derrick-goold-on-the-cardinals/collection_0d4da0e4-8e8c-5f2e-9bbb-197bb11d5f65.html

 

If he's looking for a Jordan Zimmerman-type contract like the article you posted says, I'm passing on Lynn. 

[Mike Sixel]

this is an off hand comment in a chat, but last year his predictions were decent....(he earlier predicted the Arrieta numbers)....

 

Replacement Level
12:39 If Arrieta is 4/100, what does Darvish get?  More years or just more per year?

 

Dave Cameron
12:39 Both
12:40 I'd put Darvish at 7/175.

[Major League Ready]

 

Lance Lynn may have led the league in starts, but he hasn't surpassed 200 innings since 2014. That's not good for a team that has a lackluster bullpen. Twins need durability.

 

That’s pretty meaningless given he missed all of 2016 after TJ surgery.  He had 186 this year which is pretty darn good the first year after TJ.  So, you are really saying don’t sign him because he only completed 175 innings in 2015 which I would guess was partly due to the injury that required TJ.

 

My only concern is that is FIP did not look so good last year but this guy has been a very solid SP.   I would be thrilled to have him if he pitches to his career numbers.

[Major League Ready]

 

 

Per this article, Lynn is looking for 5 years, 100 million plus.  That is why he is available, the Cardinals actually need some stability to their rotation, but don't want to pay that much.  My guess is, the Twins won't either.  Several teams will probably wait for that price to come down, the question is will some big-spending team take the risk? 

 

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/quick-hits-derrick-goold-on-the-cardinals/collection_0d4da0e4-8e8c-5f2e-9bbb-197bb11d5f65.html

 

There have been quite a few guys who wanted X and got much less than X.   Who knows with the shortage of SP but I don't think he gets that kind of money.  4 and 80 would not surprise me but 5 and 100 would. 

[jimmer]

Lance Lynn had a FIP close to 5.00.  In the NL. After not pitching in the majors in 2016.

 

Hard pass.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Lance Lynn had a FIP close to 5.00.  In the NL. After not pitching in the majors in 2016.

 

Hard pass.

 

so, pass on anyone the first year back from TJ? That cuts a lot of guys off your list every year.....

[jimmer]

so, pass on anyone the first year back from TJ? That cuts a lot of guys off your list every year.....

fair point

[Major League Ready]

 

so, pass on anyone the first year back from TJ? That cuts a lot of guys off your list every year.....

 

Next year will be his 2nd year after TJ.   His ERA first year back was better than every SP we had last year other than Santana.  Granted, he is in the NL and his FIP was high.  The question is will he get back to the level of performance he had pre TJ.  That guy would be a very welcome addition.  Our win total should go up with a more experienced core and Santana | Berrios | Lynn | Mejia & Gibson.  Hopefully, Gonsalves should be ready.  Slegers | Littell & Enns provide depth.

 

Right now the list of guys that can help us is very short and the list of teams who wnat them is much longer.  Sure we would like to have Darvish or Arrieta but that would require we outbid several teams with considerably more revenue that are markets which also provide greater endorsement potential.  History would suggest that is not going to happen regardless of it's the Twins or a similar market.   So, let's get Cobb or Lynn.  They are the Santana's of this free agent class.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Next year will be his 2nd year after TJ.   His ERA first year back was better than every SP we had last year other than Santana.  Granted, he is in the NL and his FIP was high.  The question is will he get back to the level of performance he had pre TJ.  That guy would be a very welcome addition.  Our win total should go up with a more experienced core and Santana | Berrios | Lynn | Mejia & Gibson.  Hopefully, Gonsalves should be ready.  Slegers | Littell & Enns provide depth.

 

Right now the list of guys that can help us is very short and the list of teams who wnat them is much longer.  Sure we would like to have Darvish or Arrieta but that would require we outbid several teams with considerably more revenue that are markets which also provide greater endorsement potential.  History would suggest that is not going to happen regardless of it's the Twins or a similar market.   So, let's get Cobb or Lynn.  They are the Santana's of this free agent class.

 

I'm with you. I was commenting on Jimmers stance that his results were bad, and I was saying that might have been due to first year back from TJ.....

 

And, I can't see the Twins winning the Darvish or Arrieta sweepstakes.

 

And, I agree, the list of who can help is short.

[Major League Ready]

 

I'm with you. I was commenting on Jimmers stance that his results were bad, and I was saying that might have been due to first year back from TJ.....

 

And, I can't see the Twins winning the Darvish or Arrieta sweepstakes.

 

And, I agree, the list of who can help is short.

 

I knew where you were coming from, Mike.  The big picture is he was coming of TJ.  I am just not sure I agree his results were bad.  His ERA was about the same as Santana's.  I never saw a single inning he pitched but would we rather have a good FIP or ERA?  The FIP is cause for concern but how was his "stuff"?  Was his velocity back to normal by the end of the season?  Concluding he was bad because his FIP was high seems to be a rush to judgment. 

 

Falvey and Levine have a good track record where these assessments are concerned.  I will feel pretty good about the off-season if they sign Cobb or conclude Lynn is likely to pitch like he did pre TJ and sign him.  Add one or two BP pieces along with all of the BP prospects and next year should be the best team we have had in a long time.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'll say what I said before, but with a guy like Lynn, I'm looking more at the trends as the season progressed, not the overall ERA/FIP. He's going to struggle his first year back. I want to a see a trend moving in the right direction if I'm going to spend money on a long term deal.

 

That said, Lynn, if he's not getting good offers, might be a guy you can do a 1 year deal with. Given the arms sitting in AA/AAA next season (not to mention Trevor May), that might not be a bad option either as it's not unreasonable to see enough of guys like Gonsalves and Romero in 2018 to indicate that they are worth putting in the rotation in 2019.

[Deduno Abides]

I'll say what I said before, but with a guy like Lynn, I'm looking more at the trends as the season progressed, not the overall ERA/FIP. He's going to struggle his first year back. I want to a see a trend moving in the right direction if I'm going to spend money on a long term deal.

 

That said, Lynn, if he's not getting good offers, might be a guy you can do a 1 year deal with. Given the arms sitting in AA/AAA next season (not to mention Trevor May), that might not be a bad option either as it's not unreasonable to see enough of guys like Gonsalves and Romero in 2018 to indicate that they are worth putting in the rotation in 2019.

Looks like Lynn’s first half may have been better than the second. 8.18 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9 vs. 6.43 and 4.29. He did significantly improve his HR/9 rate in the second half, from 1.76 to 0.75.

 

It also looks like he changed his pitching style last year, relying much more on his slider, which was better than pre-TJ, than his fastball, which was slower.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I love this world where no FA is good enough to help this team but the pitching has been awful for ten years.

 

There should be no reason for our goal to be to have Gibson or Mejia in the rotation next year.

 

That leaves us a declining Erv and an improving Berrios and an unusable bullpen.

this. The Twins need to add two starters, one should be aim high “Ace” type and one should be quality mid rotation type. Cobb/Darvish, Santana, Berrios, Lynn, Mejia/Gibson would a really nice rotation

[kab21]

 

this. The Twins need to add two starters, one should be aim high “Ace” type and one should be quality mid rotation type. Cobb/Darvish, Santana, Berrios, Lynn, Mejia/Gibson would a really nice rotation

I think one of the starters in this scenario would have to be acquired via trade with a salary <10M/yr. I can't see the Twins adding 35-50M/yr in salary for two pitchers.

 

And as much as I want to say that Darvish should be signed, it will likely cost 30m/yr for 5-6 years to get it done. I certainly won't complain if that happens but I consider it very unlikely and the Twins should have a plan B that is essentially plan A for the offseason.

[thegambler]

 

no one pitches that many innings any more. All of 15 pitchers did that in 2017. I think you need to re-think your standards.

His K rate is going down, walk rate is going up, ERA is going up, still not interested.