I hope he gets confirmed... The GOP losses the Senate. They begin a criminal investigation, and end up corroborating Ford's testimony. Kavanaugh is charged with perjury and a sex crime. He is impeached. Trump is either forced to nominate a moderate, or his next selection gets voted down. Democrats destroy in 2020, and we finally get out from under a conservative judiciary.... I'm an optimist..

I worry about looking for a silver lining in November.  

 

I mean, I'm hopeful too and I've added at least three friends/family that were non-voters to the rolls to vote against Republicans, but I'm wary of counting on a blue turnout.  I don't think this will galvanize people in six weeks.  By then we'll be 8 whackos stories deeper anyway....

Well Flake just threw a wrench in the gears; he won't vote yes unless there's an FBI investigation.

 

And it's pretty clear to me, he'll be running in 2020, though I wonder as a Republican or as an Independent.

Edited September 28, 20188 yr by PseudoSABR

Well Flake just threw a wrench in the gears; he won't vote yes unless there's an FBI investigation.

I don't understand the benefit Flake sees between withholding a yes vote in committee, and withholding next week on the floor. If he has qualms about the nominee, this vote moves the nominee a step closer to approval.

 

He must think Murkowski will join him in the demand, and Manchin won't cross party lines; I see Collins as compromised by McConnell's ability to block future pork barrel to Maine for the rest of her tenure (or his). Alaska at least has another Republican senator Mitch must throw bones to. Who said a solid state delegation is a pure blessing to leadership?

 

But Flake's influence was greatest in committee, and he ceded it for some reason. I don't see why he has more to fear by crossing Grassley than crossing McConnell. I try to pretend to understand inside baseball, but I have no real idea about inside politics.

 

I don't understand the benefit Flake sees between withholding a yes vote in committee, and withholding next week on the floor. If he has qualms about the nominee, this vote moves the nominee a step closer to approval.

 

He must think Murkowski will join him; I see Collins as compromised by McConnell's ability to block future pork barrel to Maine for the rest of her tenure (or his). Alaska at least has another Republican senator Mitch must throw bones to.

 

But Flake's influence was greatest in committee, and he ceded it for some reason. I try to pretend to understand inside baseball, but I have no real idea about inside politics.

Honestly, I think it was the CNN video of Flake being talked down by victims in the hall. He couldn't let that be the last word he has on the subject if he's going to run in 2020. So now he can demand a quick investigation. If something comes up (like another allegation), he looks good. If nothing, he can vote for Kavanaugh after saying he was the reason there was an investigation that found nothing against Kavanaugh.

Murkowski has joined him, so that swings things at least temporarily.  There may yet be hope.

 

Murkowski has joined him, so that swings things at least temporarily.  There may yet be hope.

I don't see it, really. I think the one week timeline tells more than anything else. They set a deadline so quickly that it's likely nothing will be found in a case like this, which will likely require a lot of back and forth, piecing things together because the main actors aren't going to betray themselves in a single conversation.

 

This feels like a lot of posturing to give the appearance of fair play; checking off boxes quickly to justify a terrible decision.

 

I don't see it, really. I think the one week timeline tells more than anything else. They set a deadline so quickly that it's likely nothing will be found in a case like this, which will likely require a lot of back and forth, piecing things together because the main actors aren't going to betray themselves in a single conversation.

 

This feels like a lot of posturing to give the appearance of fair play; checking off boxes quickly to justify a terrible decision.

 

No disagreement, but every delay creates more doubt IMO.

 

I don't understand the benefit Flake sees between withholding a yes vote in committee, and withholding next week on the floor. If he has qualms about the nominee, this vote moves the nominee a step closer to approval.

 

He must think Murkowski will join him in the demand, and Manchin won't cross party lines; I see Collins as compromised by McConnell's ability to block future pork barrel to Maine for the rest of her tenure (or his). Alaska at least has another Republican senator Mitch must throw bones to. Who said a solid state delegation is a pure blessing to leadership?

 

But Flake's influence was greatest in committee, and he ceded it for some reason. I don't see why he has more to fear by crossing Grassley than crossing McConnell. I try to pretend to understand inside baseball, but I have no real idea about inside politics.

It's entirely possible Flake is genuinely trying to do what he thinks is right.

 

An independent investigation, even a brief one (how much information can be looked into when the allegation is decades old?), would seem to me a reasonable position to take.

 

And it's what Democrats have been screaming for.

 

Let's see what happens. I don't view Flake as the enemy here, at least at this point. He's clearly not a Trump fan. 

And it looks like the GOP has agreed to delay his confirmation by a week.

Frankly, I think this is bad for Dems........if they don't do Kavanaugh, they will do someone else, and trump will pick someone even worse (somehow), and any anger votes we could have gained are lost.

 

Or, they do an investigation, find nothing incriminating enough, and they confirm him anyway, and we lose any anger votes....

 

Lose/Lose, imo. Because they will confirm someone before next year.....

 

Frankly, I think this is bad for Dems........if they don't do Kavanaugh, they will do someone else, and trump will pick someone even worse (somehow), and any anger votes we could have gained are lost.

 

Or, they do an investigation, find nothing incriminating enough, and they confirm him anyway, and we lose any anger votes....

 

Lose/Lose, imo. Because they will confirm someone before next year.....

Politically it may be a bit of loss (unless it looks like a rubber stamp or the investigation finds bad facts but the GOP still push it through); but procedurally it's a victory for the country.

 

Politically it may be a bit of loss (unless it looks like a rubber stamp or the investigation finds bad facts but the GOP still push it through); but procedurally it's a victory for the country.

 

I'm not particularly interested in fake procedural wins......I'm interested in actual wins that matter. This is a farce.

 

I'm not particularly interested in fake procedural wins......I'm interested in actual wins that matter. This is a farce.

It may be a farce.  But getting some kind of investigation, while not a victory, is important, at least to me.

NSFW

https://twitter.com/rob_bennett/status/1045724782510182400

 

 

It’s impossible to take politics out of this, but logically this makes sense. If there is some fire along with the smoke, perhaps Kavanaugh will withdraw.

 

Personally, I think the angry white guy routine should eliminate him from consideration, but I doubt that will stop the GOP. On a side note, I’m glad no one is checking through my high school yearbook, although I didn’t do anything criminal.

 

I don't see it, really. I think the one week timeline tells more than anything else. They set a deadline so quickly that it's likely nothing will be found in a case like this, which will likely require a lot of back and forth, piecing things together because the main actors aren't going to betray themselves in a single conversation.

 

This feels like a lot of posturing to give the appearance of fair play; checking off boxes quickly to justify a terrible decision.

The obvious thing is an interview of Mike Judge. Lying to the FBI is a crime so if he knows something about that night or any others, he'd (presumably) tell the truth. If he confirms Dr. Ford's story - or something close to it - or continues to insist he remembers nothing, it ends the investigation either way (at least enough for Flake and company).

 

Now watch Judge take a two week vacation to Europe.

Judge has said he would comply with a confidential FBI interview (whatever that means).  I also don't know to what extent Judge can simply take the 5th or refuse to comply if he doesn't want to answer the question.  He hasn't been subpoenaed.  

This is an interesting twitter thread about the ex-boyfriend who introduced Ford to BK.

 

Edited September 29, 20188 yr by PseudoSABR

I just want to note, that it struck me odd during the hearing that BK admitted he didn't watch Ford's testimony because he was preparing.  If someone falsely accuses you, wouldn't you want to watch their testimony to see to what extent they lie or mistake or even reveal intimate details about? Wouldn't that be key to such preparation, even if you knew the alleged even was largely false, especially from the point of view of a diligent lawyer and jurist?  I'm left with one of obvious reason he wouldn't need to watch: he knows it's true. 

I just want to note, that it struck me odd during the hearing that BK admitted he didn't watch Ford's testimony because he was preparing. If someone falsely accuses you, wouldn't you want to watch their testimony to see to what extent they lie or mistake or even reveal intimate details about? Wouldn't that be key to such preparation, even if you knew the alleged even was largely false, especially from the point of view of a diligent lawyer and jurist? I'm left with one of obvious reason he wouldn't need to watch: he knows it's true.

I actually understand that part. He said he’d watch it later.

 

I wouldn’t want to go into a testimony like that emotionally unstable, either angry or ashamed.

 

Though Brett seemed pretty emotionally unstable anyway so there you go.

At least there is more time. Trump still had the ability to pull the nomination. You never know who is in his ear. Ivanka or Melania could be advocating to choose someone else. A week longer allows a week for the angry memes, the pompous responses, and the people to call senators.

 

Six weeks isn't very long. If he gets confirmed, I bet the swing is statistically relevant. Only the hard core right wing base is on board with this guy right now.

I recommend watching Matt Damon impersonate Kavanaugh on SNL. Killed it.

I recommend watching Matt Damon impersonate Kavanaugh on SNL. Killed it.

I expect congressman Steve King thinks the Hillary meme he passed along is just as funny. Libruls don't have senses of humor, dontcha'know.

 

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/steve-king-christine-blasey-ford_us_5bae88ece4b0343b3dc01925

 

I expect congressman Steve King thinks the Hillary meme he passed along is just as funny. Libruls don't have senses of humor, dontcha'know.

 

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/steve-king-christine-blasey-ford_us_5bae88ece4b0343b3dc01925

In a chamber chock full of vile human beings, Steve King might be the worst of the bunch.

In a chamber chock full of vile human beings, Steve King might be the worst of the bunch.

I live in his district. There is a chance he gets voted out, but not much of one.

 

I live in his district. There is a chance he gets voted out, but not much of one.

I have a political friend who says King is great for our side b/c he opens his mouth and money flows to the Dems. Because of that and the shape of his district, they haven't been too inclined to get rid of him but he told me this year, they'd spend more to try and kick him out. So hopefully it happens.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/read-yale-classmates-full-statement-on-kavanaugh/ar-BBNN3N4

 

A Yale classmate who drank with Kavanaugh refutes Kavanaugh's statement about his drinking days.

Evidently, the FBI now has free reign to look into the allegations, despite the two-day limited-scope start.   At least Flake seems to be following through on more than simply providing cover for his GOP colleagues.

It also appears that Kavanaugh knew about the Ramirez allegations before she actually made them.

Edited October 2, 20188 yr by PseudoSABR