Article: A Blueprint For The Bronx

[Ted Schwerzler]

With a postseason berth clinched, the Minnesota Twins will face off with the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on October 3rd. There’s no doubt this group is going to be massive underdogs, but they’ve been so all year, so it won’t be anything new. Beating the Yankees on the road isn’t something they’ve done in 2017, but there’s a blueprint to get the job done.On the season as a whole, Minnesota owns a 2-4 record and a -8 run differential against Joe Girardi’s squad. They did take the series at Target Field, but were swept on the road in September. A better road team over the full slate of games however, this group isn’t afraid to win anywhere. Without a full series, and realistically in a situation that benefits them, Minnesota will have to capitalize early and often to pull the upset. Here are a few areas for them to key on:

 

Get to Severino-

An All Star in 2017, Luis Severino has had nothing short of an incredible year. With a 2.98 ERA and a 10.7 K/9, he’s among the best young pitchers in the game. Therein lies an opportunity as well. At 23 years old, a one-game Wild Card will be the biggest stage the youngster has ever pitched on. Going against Minnesota on September 20, he may have begun to tip his hand.

 

Lit up for 3 runs on 5 hits in just 3.0 IP, it was his second shortest outing of the year. Across 71 pitches, he threw 35 fastballs, 28 sliders, and 8 changeups. With velocity being his game, Twins hitters were able to sit fastball, and tee off on the pitch. He didn’t give up any real hard contact, but Twins hitters were able to get decent launch angles on most of the balls they put in play.

 

Knowing what’s behind him as far as Yankee arms go, working Severino and jumping out to an early lead is going to be a must.

 

Score early and often-

When Minnesota took the series from New York in Minnesota, it was on the backs of 4-2 and 6-1 victories. Both of those games saw the Twins score first, and neither of them ended up being a grind-it-out effort. While a one-game situation allows teams to pull out all of the stops, turning it into a barnburner doesn’t favor Minnesota.

 

On the year, Minnesota has scored the 5th most runs in MLB, and the Yankees trail only the Houston Astros. Playing for one run in any inning, especially early, is going to have the Twins beating themselves. With just 27 outs at their disposal, Paul Molitor will have to do everything he can to turn away from bunting and micro-managing the game.

 

Realistically, the hometown nine don’t have the staying power that the Yankees do, and New York can get back into a game in a hurry (ask Bartolo Colon). Getting chunk innings, and continuing to add on will be a must for a victory.

 

Control the pace-

In the recent series with the Yankees, battery mates Ervin Santana and Jason Castro allowed New York to have their way on the bases. Knowing this same dup will be on the mound, expect Girardi to exploit whatever he saw that first go round. Allowing New York runners to swipe extra bases is one issue, but the Twins will need to control the pace in general.

The Yankees are one of the slowest playing teams in all of baseball. Being on the road already hurts momentum, but Minnesota will need to do what they can to harbor as much of it as possible. Strong defense and good at bats can go a long ways towards eventual run production.

 

Play the percentages-

Yes, the Yankees bullpen is significantly better than what the Twins have at their disposal. Minnesota will need to do what they can to avoid allowing that to make a difference. That being said, Molitor can use his best relievers to exploit Yankees hitters.

 

There’s power up and down the New York lineup, but there’s also plenty of strikeout potential. Using arms like Taylor Rogers, Ryan Pressly, Trevor Hildenberger, Alan Busenitz, and Matt Belisle, Molitor should focus on putting opposing hitters in situations he wants them in. While not a traditional usage of a reliever, getting single outs at a time should be the goal. If there are opportunities that lend themselves to easier avenues in generating outs, take them.

 

Over the course of a full season, a boatload of pitching changes is never going to be a welcome reality. Given the situation however, pulling out all of the stops is a must. Ideally, Ervin Santana throws a complete game shutout, but if and when he doesn’t, don’t be afraid to have an early hook.

 

Entering Yankee Stadium, the Twins are playing with house money. This collection was not supposed to be here, and they won’t be favored at any point from here on out. While you can embrace the underdog narrative, the reality is that this group has the ability to make waves. They’ve shown that throughout the regular season, and whether it be a one-game playoff with the Yankees, or a full series with the Indians, any opponent welcoming this contingent with open arms is opening themselves up for disappointment.

 

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[Connor Gould]

I say that the Twins need to be patient and drive up Severino's pitch count. The Twins have taken the 6th most walks in the league and they need to get the bullpen in early. The Yankees have a lot of good relievers, so we need to make them use them all up. The most important thing is that Santana needs to be on. I don't like our chances in a slug fest.

[Dantes929]

That's a great blueprint.   My prediction is that Dozier leads off the first with a single, Mauer walks, Polanco sacrifices them over, Rosario hits a sac fly and we win 1-0.

[ND-Fan]

Ideally would be Dozier leads off with homer to set the tone for the game and then the twins collect series of hits to put couple more runs in the first inning. Then Santanna shuts them down for number innings while Twins extend the lead with couple more runs in that same time. If  the Twins could get to into 7 inning before using relief staff having 3 or 4 run lead  this would be ideal game for the Twins and their pitching staff.

[pierre75275]

If the Yankees sweep the Bosox this wknd the Yankees and Bosox would then have the same record and would need a one game playoff. The twins would play the loser. Not likely to happen but it would be best case scenario for the Twins and is fun to think about.

[pierre75275]

Sorry, if the Yankees sweep the Blue Jays and Houston sweeps Boston. It's should not be a forgone conclusion that the Twins one game playoff will be in the Bronx.

[Kwak]

The "fly in the ointment" to the relief pitching match-up ploy (that was excessively used this year) is that NY won't have 11 or 12 pitchers--probably only 7 or 8.  The rest of the roster will be position players allowing frequent use of pinch-hitters nullifying the strategy of using a "marginal" LH pitcher to get one out.

[bighat]

To be honest (and I hope I don't regret saying this), I'm glad the Twins will face Severino. He's great, but he's right-handed. The Twins seem to have all kinds of trouble against lefties. I'd be more worried if a guy like CC Sabathia was on the mound - just a gut feeling here. Severino's young and an early run or two could shake him up.

 

If the Twins could somehow stake an early 4-0 lead they just might have a chance. However, that fireball lefty closer the Yanks have is almost impossible to hit, so going into the 9th down just 1-2 runs might be insurmountable. 

 

 

[Old Twins Cap]

If the Twins do not score and take the lead by the sixth inning, the game is likely over, given the Yankees bullpen.

 

However, there is one caveat:  both Betances and Champman have had periods this year where they were wild, walking bases full, then aiming their pitches which got pounded.     Kahnle, Twins have seen him a fair amount. 

 

So, game is likely over if Yankees are up and into their bullpen, but, I will leave it on just in case.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

We would be unlikely to win a multiple game series against the Yankees this year, but for one game, I have to think we have something like 40% win probability. Nearly a coin flip!

 

I bought ALDS tickets, like many of you!

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Do we know for sure Severino will be the starter?

 

If I were the Yankees, I'd run out a lefty starter as LHP neutralizes the Twins lineup. Cases in point would be what Garcia and Sabathia did to the team last week.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Twins OPS vs lefties and righties is pretty similar. Not sure going with a lefty is all that smart on the part of NY.

 

My blueprint:

 

Score lots of runs.

 

Limit the Yankees to no runs.

 

[terrydactyls]

To me, the ideal scenario is Dozier leads off with a homerun and then the Twins proceed to bat around twice, getting off to a 15-0 lead. Santana and the bullpen hold the Yanks to six runs and the Twins advance. Bring on Cleveland. I think the same strategy would work against the Indians also.

[Doctor Wu]

Have Gimenez ready in the bullpen!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

My proposed strategy, after calculating the Minnesota Euclidean logarithms of victory>defeat, my formula for happiness requires the Twins to score more runs than the Evil Empire. Goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Twins!

[gocgo]

I don't have a strategy...just win baby!

 

Both squads have young players that haven't had any postseason experience, but here's the difference - the Twins are playing with house money.  There is no pressure on us.  Byron Buxton can relax and do what Byron Buxton does.  Rosario?  I think he'll eat this up.  Kepler, Polanco, Sano?, Adrianza, etc...this is their chance to drink it in and enjoy it.  In Erv we trust.

 

Aaron Judge...New York is looking to him to bring them to the promised land.  Will he get caught up in it and try to hit a 5 run homer with every swing?  Severino, Gregorius, Hicks, etc...if you think that they won't be nervous, think again.

 

We don't need to Twins to come out of the gate fast (although it would be nice).  We just need the Yankees to not come out of the gate fast.  The longer this game stays 0-0, the better for the Twins and the more the pressure mounts on the Yankees.  I'll take a 5th inning 3 spot and another tacked on in the 6th for the Twins...and then the pressure really starts to mount on the Yankees.

 

Not a strategy, but it's how I want it to play out.

[Oldgoat_MN]

The Twins need to score runs. That's plural, as in more than one.

If Molitor is having one of our better hitters laying down a sacrifice bunt in the early innings I would like to see Molly fired before they come back from New York.

Other than that, go Molly!

Go Twins!

[awinter]

If Mauer can hit a double down the line and have the ump call it fair, they should be able to grab all the momentum and win the game.

[REPETE]

 

If the Twins do not score and take the lead by the sixth inning, the game is likely over, given the Yankees bullpen.

 

However, there is one caveat:  both Betances and Champman have had periods this year where they were wild, walking bases full, then aiming their pitches which got pounded.     Kahnle, Twins have seen him a fair amount. 

 

So, game is likely over if Yankees are up and into their bullpen, but, I will leave it on just in case.

We need Willingham back on the 40-man, just in case we need him against Chapman!

[Pardon My Dinger]

Buntbuntbuntbuntbuntbuntbunt

[TwinsCD]

Don't underestimate the momentum-crushing power of God Bless America in the 7th inning.  If the Twins are winning, they'll break out the opera singer to draw it out as long as possible and try to sap whatever roll Santana is on (or whoever the pitcher is).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sorry, if the Yankees sweep the Blue Jays and Houston sweeps Boston. It's should not be a forgone conclusion that the Twins one game playoff will be in the Bronx.

If you think of the games as coin flips, you'd need to get specific results of 6 flips in a row to force a tiebreaker, 7 in a row to move the WC game to Boston.  That's a 99.2% likelihood that NY hosts the wild card game.  What level should that rise to before we consider it a "foregone conclusion"?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If Mauer can hit a double down the line and have the ump call it fair, they should be able to grab all the momentum and win the game.

 

would the new challenge rules allow for this to be challenged?

 

Now that said, the real question is if Phil Cuzzi will be at that game. I'm hoping not.

[twinsfanstreif]

Technically isn't a game in Boston still a possibility? Would that be a better or worse option for us?

[Han Joelo]

Overlay the season long win expectancy graph onto this one game. About the sixth inning, the Yankees will have a lead, with their fearsome bullpen cued up. Odds of winning the game will be about the same as the playoff odds on July 31st. Falvey will trade Belisle away mid-game, for a ballboy, or maybe a fancy usher.

Brian Dozier gets angry and hits a three run homer. Judge strikes out to end it.

I'm pretty sure about that last part.

[DocBauer]

I know this sounds trite...sorry for that...but it comes down to mojo.

 

Santana has had an outstanding year, almost beat the Yankees last go, and needs to be in solid form. Personally, I like him over the Yankees youngster based on experience.

 

But my gut reaction is this game comes down to which offensive Twins team shows up. As much as I love this team, and all they have done, and as much as they have produced, they are still a bit Jekyl and Hyde. ON, working counts, XB and HR power, speed and baserunning, they are dangerous as hell. But they have those annoying games when they just can't get the hit, or even sac fly needed, to score a run or blow the game open.

 

My hunch is the game comes down to the Twins offense.

[ashbury]

If you think of the games as coin flips, you'd need to get specific results of 6 flips in a row to force a tiebreaker, 7 in a row to move the WC game to Boston.  That's a 99.2% likelihood that NY hosts the wild card game.  What level should that rise to before we consider it a "foregone conclusion"?

It's a useful way to start thinking about it. But since the games are not coin flips, and indeed do not have an independent or uniform distribution of expected outcomes, even if the players were robots which they are not, you'd need higher powered statistical methods than I could muster to say whether 100-to-1 odds are too high or too low to offer for the proposition bet.

 

Where humans are involved, across just four days, I think I want a little more than the coin-flip analysis to call it foregone.

 

And I wrote the, ahem, foregoing before checking the ALE standings this morning. Put it this way: a mere day later, the likelihood is now down around 97%, probably (a 1-in-32 shot). Is that number still foregone? Darned likely, of course. But if foregone is too strong a word now, maybe it wasn't quite foregone yesterday either. A single day shouldn't matter that much.

 

For me, foregone is more like the Astros' and Dodgers' chances heading into late August. The Dodgers withstood a horrendous stretch and still made it in a breeze. Time-remaining is the big differentiator.

[jimmer]

I wouldnt have any pitcher we throw out there for the WC game pitch more than one time through the lineup.

 

Severino is much better than anyone we have going, so with it being only 1 game, I wouldnt let the Yanks lineup see the same pitch twice.

Edited September 30, 2017 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

Technically isn't a game in Boston still a possibility? Would that be a better or worse option for us?

Technically yes, last night.

 

But Boston won today, so they have officially clinched the division.