Article: KC 5, MIN 2: Molitor Pushes All the Wrong Buttons in Loss

[Dantes929]

 

Going into the eighth inning, game tied and what Molitor had available in the bullpen, did he really think one run would be enough to win the game? Did he think his bullpen could get six outs without giving up a run? Everyone on this forum knew they answer to that , except for Molitor. The question I have is, are the Twins doing this well despite Molitor? What is in the bullpen is not his fault, but he needs to think outside the box sometimes and stop reading from a script. I just wish he would stop with all of the bunting.

The bullpen has held countless leads this year for which they generally do not get much credit.   No one ever knows if one run is enough but it is reasonable to play for 1 run in the 8th inning.    The issue many have on here is that playing for 1 run, based on statistics and probability, is not enhanced by sacrificing an out by your #3 hitter to get the guy to second.    In Molitor's defense, if he gets his run in the 8th perhaps he uses hit bullpen differently in the bottom of the inning.    I would give the bullpen decent grades in holding leads late in games.    In a tie game you still have to imagine that it will go extra innings .   Of course using 5 guys in one inning doesn't further that theory.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Sometimes one can over manage and Mollie sure did this time. It looks like he saw a tight game and went into small ball mode early ignoring the fact that this is not a small ball team, per se. Performance from the BP was not there so I won't fault him too much there, but taking the bats out of the "producers" is, IMO, is really inexcusable. Putting it kindly, he lost the game last night on a very poor night of managing. It happens and let's hope he can see the error of his ways.

But he doesn't see 'the error of his ways'. This is not the first game he has done this. Time and again, even early in a game he will play for one run, when with a bullpen like ours you want to put up crooked numbers.

The Twins have one of the best offenses in the AL. Why would you give away outs? If the Twins win the World Series I would still want a different manager next year. ALL the stats show that bunting is usually a mistake. Especially when he has our hottest hitters doing it. I'm sorry, but that is just dumb.

 

And continuing to steal against a guy who has twice led the league in throwing out those attempting to steal is not terribly wise, especially when you have hot hitters coming to the plate. Perez had at least one game I remember from last year where he threw out at least two attempting to steal.

 

Molitor knows way more about baseball than I ever will, but could he read The Book, or at least the article that Blake refers to above?

 

[the blade]

On the podcast Effectively Wild they sometimes say a line about closers that goes, "the closer is the closer because he's the closer" and i feel like this logic applies to Molitor and bunting.  Close game, man on first?  Bunt. Becuase you should bunt in order to bunt....  

 

How about hit a 2 run homer...it's not a sin.  This lineup seems to do best when they're required to take intelligent at bats, yet allowed to be themselves and swing.  

 

Also, Grossman should not bat 9th.  He's in the top 10 in OBP. 

[gunnarthor]

I won't miss Molitor at all. Besides the bunting, he doesn't stand up for his players so we've seen guys end up ejected after they complain to the umps. Last year he was yanking young guys in and out all the time. I suspect Pickler in the dugout has stopped some of that this year.

[Han Joelo]

Maybe Molitor had the big picture in mind. Knew he had to somehow NOT use Hildy and Belly. Maybe he even factored the score of the Angels game into the equation. If this team had a bullpen full of elite pitchers, this team would have a better record.

 

Molitor is rolling with the hand he's been dealt. Hopefully Duffy and Presley at least have a few good games left to help average out the sucky ones.

 

No comment on the bunting though. He does know the ball is juiced, right?

[mickeymental]

where's mejia? maybe try sticking him in the bullpen and let the rotation roll as is.

[Mr. Brooks]

All these bunts are terrible. Just baffling.

 

I am infintely more tolerant of Rosario trying to steal. Sometimes it doesn't work.

Why are you tolerant of Rosario trying to steal?

Is it because he has decent speed so he must automatically be able to steal?

 

He's 8/16 on the season. Those 8 caught stealing, BTW, lead all of baseball!

And for his career he's 24/40, just awful.

Him trying to steal, not once but twice, against Perez, is inexcusable.

[Doubles]

Thursday's 9th inning comeback may be looming even larger now. Otherwise Twins would be at risk of losing 3 out of 4 in KC, a team they should be mostly whooping up on at this point.

Edited September 10, 2017 by Doubles

[IndianaTwin]

Too much bunting -- I get the complaints, especially Grossman early in the game.

 

The steals -- sometimes they don't work. At the same, they've been showing themselves to be more aggressive on the basepaths recently, and I think that all-in-all that's a good thing.

 

The bullpen composition -- some of us think it's horrible, but the front office has incrementally worked to improve it, never sacrificing the long-term view in the process.

 

But I'm not sure I disagree with Molitor's bullpen management, given the context, including the last several days. To think back...

• He managed Thursday well, following 7 strong innings from Gibson with an inning from Hildy and an inning from his closer. He got that win in the bag.
• He managed Friday well. Santana was struggling and had given up three runs in his last two innings. Needing to get four innings, he went to Duffey, one of the better candidates for multiple innings, even though he has struggled recently. Duffey got him an inning and then let the first batter reach. In a higher-leverage situation, he went to Rogers, hoping to finish the 7th with him. Unfortunately the next two guys got on, so he went to Hildenberger in what was now an even-higher leverage situation. Hildy pitched great and got out of the jam on a few pitches -- a huge performance. The Twins scored twice in the top of the 8th to make it 8-5. Rather than let this one get away, Molitor ran Hildy back out for the 8th and got him through the two innings on just 18 pitches. Then he used Belisle in the closer situation, according to the book. (We can argue about whether the book was right in this situation with a 3-run lead, but we would have excoriated him if he'd gone to someone else in either the 8th or 9th and blown it. And if the Twins score another run in the 9th, he saves Belisle.).  

For Saturday, then, that left him with:

• Two wins in the bag (three if you count Wednesday against Toronto)
• His two best relievers -- Hildy and Belisle -- unavailable after pitching three straight days. That's the price you sometimes pay to win three straight.
• His third best reliever -- Rogers -- likely not available for more than 1-2 batters after pitching three of the last four days (and 41 pitches in the process, plus warmups).

That sounds like a formula for "roll the dice and hope for the best" on Saturday night. So, Berrios gets through 7 innings on 94 pitches and a 2-2 tie. I kinda hoped he'd bring Berrios back out, but I can understand the logic of not. Basically, three things can happen and two of them are not good:

• Berrios sails through the eight on a dozen pitches or less, leaving with a pitch count just into the 100s. That's the best case.
• Berrios struggles a bit. He gets through the inning unscathed, but it took him 20+ pitches, pushing 120 him to pitches in the process.
• Berrios gets into trouble, and Molitor has to go to guys he doesn't trust, with runners on base. 

Here's where the dice rolling comes in.

• Pressley has pitched well at times and can maybe get through the inning, so he rolls the dice with him. Unfortunately Pressley gave up two baserunners.
• Still tied, the ineffective Pressley has to leave. Next up is a lefty, and the choices are Boshers or Rogers. But you're not going to Rogers for more than two batters. That means he would get a lefty and a righty, so this is for all practical purposes a LOOGY situation, because Yost isn't going to PH for Perez. Waiting a couple batters later are back-to-back lefties in Moustakis and Moss. So, does he want Boshers facing one batter and Rogers two, or vice versa? He wants Rogers facing two, so he rolls the dice with Boshers here. Unfortunately, Boshers gives up a hit, which scores the first run.
• So then, which righty do you go to? We might have liked Busenitz, but Molitor still has more confidence in Duffey. He also knew it was a one-batter situation, so I'd like to think that he was using Duffey here and saving Busenitz for the 9th if the Twins should get fortunate enough to have a lead. Unfortunately, Perez doubles and drives in the second run.
• If any of Pressley, Boshers, or Duffey had gotten even one out, Molitor is sitting with Rogers to face the two lefties in Moustakis and Moss. Unfortunately, that didn't happen, and Perez compounded the problem by doubling, so the logical move is to intentionally walk Moustakis to set up the double play. Molitor lets Duffey take responsibility for the four-finger salute does before he exits.
• And then Rogers comes in and gets his out against the remaining lefty, and it's still a two-run game. So you roll the dice with Busenitz and hope for a rally.
• Busenitz gets the two outs, but unfortunately, one of them scores a third run.

And the Twins don't rally.

 

The Twins lost the game, but Molitor got them through to Sunday with a generally available bullpen and an off-day Monday. Rogers may not be available today after pitching in 4 out of 5 games, but it was only 11 pitches in the last three days, so he might again be available for 1-2 batters. Similarly, Duffey may not be available after pitching back-to-back days, but it was only 11 pitches.

But everyone else is available, though I'm sure he'd love a blowout to give Belisle, Hildy and others an extra day before taking on the Padres. Going to KC, I think the goal was to win 3 of 4, and they are in position to do it thanks at least in part to how Molitor handled the bullpen. 

 

[FattCrapps]

 

 the Twins truly have no second lefty.

I was hoping Jay would have filled that role by this time when the Twins drafted him.   

[Kwak]

 

I generally agree with the sentiment here. That Molitor got the team to this point with this bullpen (not to mention rotation) is truly remarkable.

If only he would stop bunting.

Or, maybe the players got tired of getting their butts kicked and began playing to "their level"?

[drjim]

Why are you tolerant of Rosario trying to steal?

Is it because he has decent speed so he must automatically be able to steal?

 

He's 8/16 on the season. Those 8 caught stealing, BTW, lead all of baseball!

And for his career he's 24/40, just awful.

Him trying to steal, not once but twice, against Perez, is inexcusable.

I see it as part of his skillset, I am generally in favor of more aggressive play on the bases (keeping player and game context in mind), and it was a game situation where it was an acceptable risk.

 

I realize his SB/CS numbers are not great, but I don't see that as a reason to shutter the strategy.

[drjim]

Or, maybe the players got tired of getting their butts kicked and began playing to "their level"?

There certainly is talent on the roster, just not as much in the bullpen.

 

They're playing solid ball and their best hitter as been out 3 weeks. Also impressive.

[Rosterman]

You have 30+ players on the roster. If you aren't going to figure out how to use them properly, then why are they on the roster. 

 

Granted, you are totally inconsistent in putting together a lineup. 

 

You CAN rest a Buxton (yes, he did homer yesterday) but part of the game plan is to keep your players as fresh as you can.

 

Especially the bullpen. 

 

Don;t use guys for a week and expect them to shut people down in horrible situations? You have to mix and match the bad/okay bullpen guys with a gem. If the bad/okay guys get thru an inning so you can use another bad/ok guy, you go for it.

 

I'll be happy if the Twins play .500 ball for the season. Anything after that is a bonus. If they make the wildcard playoff game, I'll watch them play the Yankees in New York. I'll fall off my chair if they go beyond that and will dance nakid in the streets if they win the world series.

 

Yes, it would be ncie if ALL September games, at this point in Twins history, were meaningless and you could see what you have and what you will have for the future.

 

I'm a little disappointed with the lovefest for guys that shouldn't be back next season (like Belisle and Grossman and one of those backup infield guys, and even Gimenez...let Garver catch Berrios in the least...let Garver catch in the least). 

 

I would also put more stock into giving Curtis innings, as well as Enns and Jake Reed and such than dragging out the ever-rising ERA guys of Pressly and Boshers and (soon) Tonkin). 

 

We will cringe and say we can't lose games to teams like the Royals at this point, especially when our best pitchers are on the mound. But the lineup has some blame, too...not doing their thing, or not doing stuff like working on bunting earlier in the season so they can do it when it counts.

 

Sigh.

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

I see it as part of his skillset, I am generally in favor of more aggressive play on the bases (keeping player and game context in mind), and it was a game situation where it was an acceptable risk.

 

I realize his SB/CS numbers are not great, but I don't see that as a reason to shutter the strategy.

With just a 50% success rate, may I ask what possible upside there is in that strategy?

[USAFChief]

I see it as part of his skillset, I am generally in favor of more aggressive play on the bases (keeping player and game context in mind), and it was a game situation where it was an acceptable risk.

I realize his SB/CS numbers are not great, but I don't see that as a reason to shutter the strategy.

I'm 99% sure the first one was a H&R. The second a straight steal...which should be rare with Rosario. He's not good at it.

 

I don't think a H&R with Buxton at the plate is wise either.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm 99% sure the first one was a H&R. The second a straight steal...which should be rare with Rosario. He's not good at it.

I don't think a H&R with Buxton at the plate is wise either.

To stay out of the ground ball double play?

 

It did look like a hit & run based on the weird slide and Buxton waving at a pitch three feet out of the strike zone

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Molitor knows way more about baseball than I ever will, but could he read The Book, or at least the article that Blake refers to above?

Exactly. This is what would be nice to know. Does Molitor know about the bunting probabilities? If not, why not? Has the front office discussed this with him and is Molitor just stubborn? Are the charts wrong, and bunting actually a great thing now, and only Molitor and the front office know this secret?

[drjim]

I'm 99% sure the first one was a H&R. The second a straight steal...which should be rare with Rosario. He's not good at it.

 

I don't think a H&R with Buxton at the plate is wise either.

I will agree with this. Don't really like a h and r at any point.

[drjim]

With just a 50% success rate, may I ask what possible upside there is in that strategy?

Rosario gets better at stealing. I'm not convinced he's doomed to be a 50% stealer.

[Doomtints]

Molitor gave up on this game before it even started, declaring before the game that everyone good in his bullpen was "spent" and that he had no idea how they were going to pitch a complete game, all but conceding the loss before the first pitch.

[alarp33]

 

I realize his SB/CS numbers are not great, but I don't see that as a reason to shutter the strategy.

 

I mean his SB / CS numbers are literally THE reason to shutter the strategy. Like it is a huge negative to attempt to steal with those types of numbers. That's not really debatable.  

He was a horrible base stealer in the minors as well, fwiw

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I mean his SB / CS numbers are literally THE reason to shutter the strategy. Like it is a huge negative to attempt to steal with those types of numbers. That's not really debatable.  

He was a horrible base stealer in the minors as well, fwiw

As one who has steadfastly defended Rosario pretty much all year, I don't even consider this criticism of him. He is an excellent hitter. He need not be great at stealing bases to be an asset to the team.

As I believe you are pointing out, I think it's unwise to continually have players do things they are clearly not good at.

[drjim]

 

As one who has steadfastly defended Rosario pretty much all year, I don't even consider this criticism of him. He is an excellent hitter. He need not be great at stealing bases to be an asset to the team.

As I believe you are pointing out, I think it's unwise to continually have players do things they are clearly not good at.

 

I don't think pointing out his "success" rate is a criticism either, it is stating a fact. I see Rosario and think he has the skillset to grab some bags in the bigs. Maybe he should be more judicious, maybe it never comes. I don't mind the aggression in close games.

[jun]

One might argue that if that second paragraph is all true, then Molitor should probably be manager of the year for getting a team with that big of an issue late in games to a point where on September 10th they have a 2-game lead for the 2nd wild card and are 6-7 games over .500.

I think the success is really due to the offense and defense and a few brilliant starts from Berrios and Santana. Molitor is a below average manager. Bullpen is really a mess. Edited September 11, 2017 by jun