Article: Twins In Driver's Seat In Wild-Card Race

[Nick Nelson]

Some have criticized Major League Baseball's new postseason format, with two wild-card entrants in each league, as a celebration of mediocrity. Looking around at the teams racing against Minnesota for those spots, it's hard to disagree. When you examine the Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Royals, and basically the entire AL East after Boston, you don't see many stacked lineups or deep staffs.

 

But that's exactly why the flawed Twins have a very realistic shot, in the driver's seat even, three weeks after a deflating slump pushed them into seller mode at the deadline.The Twins haven't really been able to experience the perks of the new system; outside of 2015 they've never been remotely close to the second wild-card since it was added six seasons ago. But we all know the feeling of a single everything-on-the-line contest, after witnessing back-to-back Game 163s in 2008 and 2009.

 

Those Twins teams, too, were flawed. But that didn't take away from the exhilaration of the moments, the magnitude of the stakes, the brightness of the spotlight.

 

Here's why they have a good shot at making it happen this year:

 

1) They Face a Relatively Easy Remaining Slate

The Twins have the softest remaining schedule of any American League club, and it's especially light over the next few weeks, with 20 of their next 27 games coming against teams below .500 (the other seven are against the Royals, just one game above).

 

This gives them an inherent advantage over opponents angling for the second wild-card slot, and in fact the Twins could make a run at earning home-field for the play-in game because the Yankees (currently leading the WC standings by 2.5 games) are facing contenders almost exclusively the rest of the way. New York will get the Indians and Red Sox next week, as Minnesota wraps up a stretch of eight games in 11 days against the AL-worst White Sox, and their best bullpen weapon is currently out of order; Aroldis Chapman was yanked from the closer role following a fourth consecutive shaky outing Friday.

 

2) They're Playing Really Well

It's no secret the Twins have had a hard time overcoming quality teams this year, and that's why this past weekend's showing was so very promising. The Diamondbacks came into town with a record 13 games above .500 and left 10 games over after a thorough dismantling at Target Field.

 

The Twins roster's ability to contend was always going to be reliant on the offense making up for an unspectacular pitching staff, and as the calendar flipped from July to August the lineup was failing to rise to the occasion. But here in August, the hitters have answered the call, averaging 5.7 runs per game – second-best in the AL. Their recent hot streak was punctuated by a nine-run first inning on Sunday that showed everything the unit is capable of: top-to-bottom production, big power, explosive outbursts. That they've been scoring so effectively even with Miguel Sano in a bit of a slump only underscores the potential for the Twins offense down the stretch. They'll need to keep it up with Sano landing on the disabled list Sunday.

 

To that end, the emergence of Byron Buxton at the plate cannot be overstated. With his bat alive, he's among the handful of most valuable players in the game. Only one other team in the race – the Angels – has a player capable of making a similar day-to-day impact.

 

We've seen a huge swing over the past couple weeks, from "Oh, maybe the Twins will hang around and keeps things interesting into September" to "They're on track to enter September as wild-card favorites."

 

Driver's seat. No reason to take the foot off the pedal now.

 

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[Darius]

...and then Minnesota happens: Sano to the DL.

 

But, hey, it was a fun year.

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins can survive without Sano if Buxton keeps doing what he's doing, especially if Vargas can provide. He was hitting .419 for Rochester since his most recent option.

[drivlikejehu]

Garver is a better hitter than Vargas, so hopefully its the former that will get more PAs at DH.

[USAFChief]

Garver is a better hitter than Vargas, so hopefully its the former that will get more PAs at DH.

Based on?

[brvama]

All i know this is fun! We are building a real exciting team. As with any tournament it's getting to it at the right time. Can the Twins sustain their surge? I would not be surprised. There seems to be a vibe that they like winning and don't except anything else. Plus I have faith in the new FO and the youngsters coming that we are about to see some exciting baseball in Minnesota.

[akmanak]

I have been a huge Debbie downer when it has come to Buxton, but he has surged and with that the Twins have really come around. Who would of thought the Twins would be right in the thick of things in mid August.

[Otwins]

 

I have been a huge Debbie downer when it has come to Buxton, but he has surged and with that the Twins have really come around. Who would of thought the Twins would be right in the thick of things in mid August.

Seth

[TKGuy]

Garver is a better hitter than Vargas, so hopefully its the former that will get more PAs at DH.

Vargas against righties

[highlander]

With the Twins road record being second in the wild card race is s bonus. It would be sweet to roll up the Yankees in a 1 game winner survive and advance game. A little vindication for past tribulations.

[mazeville]

I don't think it's any coincidence that the Twins' hot streak has coincided with Buxton's return from the DL. He's hitting well. And his fielding changes the game.

 

It'll be much tougher to win without Sano, but he wasn't playing all that well to begin with. As long as other players step up, they definitely have a chance. Especially with that schedule.

[ThejacKmp]

I don't know how you can not like the current MLB playoff structure.

 

1) It's the most exclusive in major sports. Over half of basketball teams make it, same with hockey. Football has 12/32, baseball has 10/30. It's hard to make the baseball playoffs, which makes it better.

 

2) They fixed the wild card issue. It sucked when teams didn't really push hard down the stretch for the division because they had the wild card sewn up and that meant a full series. That winner-take-all game is great and makes it so teams really care about the division title.

 

3) I love that having the best record in your league gives you a sizable advantage. You get to face a team that just played a game where they likely started their best pitcher - they're all out of whack and you get to be rested and ready to go. There should be an advantage to finishing first. 

 

Baseball's playoffs are great as is now. The wild card is fun but is truly a wild card and there's a clear advantage to finishing first. They should not change it at all.

 

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

With the Twins road record being second in the wild card race is s bonus. It would be sweet to roll up the Yankees in a 1 game winner survive and advance game. A little vindication for past tribulations.

 

Agreed. And Sonny Gray is a nice pitcher but he's not unbeatable - it's not like getting a Kershaw, Sale or Scherzer in that game.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Vargas against righties

 

Yeah, Garver should be the other half of the 1B platoon and get some occasional work at DH/LF. I'd like to see Vargas get 10 days with 9 starts. He's killed it in AAA and he's a guy you'd like to get another look at since he'll be out of options next year.

[Tommygun921]

Crazy how Buxton can go from a guy who looks so lost he doesn't even belong in professional baseball let a lone MLB. To a guy this exciting to watch. Regardless of who the better hitter is I'd rather see Garver be given a real chance to contribute as either DH or 1b. Or spelling Kepler vs tough lefties.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't know how you can not like the current MLB playoff structure.

 

1) It's the most exclusive in major sports. Over half of basketball teams make it, same with hockey. Football has 12/32, baseball has 10/30. It's hard to make the baseball playoffs, which makes it better.

 

2) They fixed the wild card issue. It sucked when teams didn't really push hard down the stretch for the division because they had the wild card sewn up and that meant a full series. That winner-take-all game is great and makes it so teams really care about the division title.

 

3) I love that having the best record in your league gives you a sizable advantage. You get to face a team that just played a game where they likely started their best pitcher - they're all out of whack and you get to be rested and ready to go. There should be an advantage to finishing first. 

 

Baseball's playoffs are great as is now. The wild card is fun but is truly a wild card and there's a clear advantage to finishing first. They should not change it at all.

I largely agree. Seeing teams coast into the WC spot was aggravating because there was so little downside to taking the division over the WC (it seemed that often, the team above the WC team wasn't vying for home field past the first series anyway).

 

And it eliminates truly crap situations like what the Yankees pulled on the Twins in 2009, where they were allowed to opt for the first game of the postseason, knowing the Twins had to play a grueling game 163 the night before. Unsurprisingly, the Twins came out flat in that first game and the series was all but won after that point. Adding that extra WC game and punishing WC teams with a playoff is a good way to fix several problems.

[Blackjack]

It will be interesting to see how the Twins do in the five games against the White Sox.  The WS are on a down cycle but they always seem to play the Twins tough, lets hope the Twins have the fortitude to bear down and stick it to them.  Winning four out of five would be nice but I'll settle for three out of five.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Based on?

 

My opinion, informed by the facts that Vargas has a career RC+ against RHP of 93, and that Garver is performing significantly better at AAA in general. I've seen Vargas hit and don't think he's particularly good at it. Garver is admittedly something of an unknown, but I'd take my chances without hesitation.

[DocBauer]

The loss of Sano truly stinks. Especially since it was looking like he was coming out of his recent funk. But the lineup was playing well and producing while he was in that funk. Can they continue? And for how long? That's the biggest question right now.

 

This team genuinely seems to be having fun and genuinely seems to believe in themselves. Going forward, WC or not, that may be the most important thing to take away from all of this.

[adorduan]

The pitching will determine our wild card fate.  If Santana and Berrios can pitch well down the stretch and maybe someone in the back half of the rotation can be decent we should be in good shape. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

The pitching will determine our wild card fate.  If Santana and Berrios can pitch well down the stretch and maybe someone in the back half of the rotation can be decent we should be in good shape. 

This is exactly correct. We need Santana and Berrios to give us a chance to win their starts and we need some help from someone we don't really see it coming from.

Big Sexy seems to get the job done, but I am never brimming with confidence when he takes the mound. I seem to have more a 'fear and trembling' thing going on.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Based on?

Garver's .928 OPS and 159 wRC+, compared to Vargas' .821 OPS and 129 wRC+ at the same level.

[birddog]

How the 2016 Twins transformed into the 2017 Twins, we don't quite know but all of Twinkieland is loving it. In spite of very minor acquisitions, somehow this is a new team--a resilient team that just won't quit. I think James Rowson deserves a lot of credit for the success of the young hitters. Buxton finally looks so relaxed at the plate and he has us raving about his bat as well as his glove. Rosario still swings hard, but not at every pitch that lands within shouting range of the catcher thrusting him into the top ten in average. You can see their confidence level rising every game. Yes, even Mauer has joined the hit parade--we must be due for a total eclipse or something.

 

The playoff structure of MLB is so good for the game, keeping mediocre teams in it and thus fans watching to the bitter end. I wish our passion for the hitting was matched by the pitching. I think the young relievers have been a real find, but the starters are still just a roll of the dice as to whether they will give us a chance to win. If good Berrios or Santana shows up, we would have a genuine shot at a wild card playoff win. I don't like our chances in a best-of-seven playoff, but hopefully Falvine finds a couple good starters in the off season so next year we are talking division and not wild card.

 

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

How the 2016 Twins transformed into the 2017 Twins, we don't quite know but all of Twinkieland is loving it.

 

I'm intrigued by this aspect of it. All of last year, the main line of thought was that the 2015 Twins were a fluke. Hard to blame people for thinking that way. But with 2017 going well (with largely the same group as 2015), do we change our mind? Was 2016 the fluke?

 

Pythagorean only goes so far and the Twins are a team that seems designed to mess with it's efficacy. Strong pitching at the front of the rotation and terrible pitching at the back. An offense that can win high scoring close games but that is also prone to getting shut down by good pitching. 

[SweetOne69]

When I've watched games on TV, I heard Dick mention a couple of times that the opposing Team's Manager expressed shock at how bad the Twins were last year, so they aren't really surprised that they are doing so well this year.

 

Granted our pitching still sucks, but the main reason that we went from a .500 season in 2015 to 100+ loses in 2016 was that all of the young guys took steps backwards in 2016 instead of steps forward..

[stringer bell]

Overachieve, underachieve, overachieve. That part I can see, but look at the lineup, even with Sanó out and there is good depth to it, now that both Buxton and Polanco are hitting. The team has taken huge strides on defense, probably their biggest step forward. The entire outfield, plus Sanó and Polanco are young players getting better, moving toward that 1000 plate appearances milestone, where we can start to trust their performance.

[dgwills]

 

How the 2016 Twins transformed into the 2017 Twins, we don't quite know but all of Twinkieland is loving it. In spite of very minor acquisitions, somehow this is a new team--a resilient team that just won't quit. I think James Rowson deserves a lot of credit for the success of the young hitters. Buxton finally looks so relaxed at the plate and he has us raving about his bat as well as his glove. Rosario still swings hard, but not at every pitch that lands within shouting range of the catcher thrusting him into the top ten in average. You can see their confidence level rising every game. Yes, even Mauer has joined the hit parade--we must be due for a total eclipse or something.

 

The playoff structure of MLB is so good for the game, keeping mediocre teams in it and thus fans watching to the bitter end. I wish our passion for the hitting was matched by the pitching. I think the young relievers have been a real find, but the starters are still just a roll of the dice as to whether they will give us a chance to win. If good Berrios or Santana shows up, we would have a genuine shot at a wild card playoff win. I don't like our chances in a best-of-seven playoff, but hopefully Falvine finds a couple good starters in the off season so next year we are talking division and not wild card.

I think 2016 can be attributed to the horrendous start, the poor line up decisions (Sano and Santana in the outfield), and just generally not giving the young players a chance to succeed. 

They were about a .500 team in 2015 and that's what they are now. I just really hope they can make that next step. We just need a few more pitching prospects to figure things out.

[Rosterman]

They are still a .500 team, which is what we all hoped MIGHT happen this season. No depth in the bullpen. There is possible replacement arms, but we are not sure how they will produce.

 

We have two starters and Colon. Any pitcher can win if you team scores 6-7-8 runs. But if they can't, and don't pitch into the fifth, let alone much past, you have a major weakness. 

 

The lineup never seems to work, except for the occasional big inning. Is there match-up rhyme and reason? Isn't there something to the fact of players being comfortable hitting around other players on a consistent basis?

 

It's a mess. Who to bring up. Who to send down. Who to send packing? Is there still any worth in some players in the marketplace (Belisle) and if offered a choice package would you move one (Santana).

 

We should all be happy for the ride. But like in 2015, the team may be winnings...just...but really isn't GREAT! It's good for putting people in the stands (always a plus) and the selling of concessions...and if they can win, or even jsut stay in second (although third wouldn't be horrible) it would help to market the team after super bowl madness calms down in the spring.