Article: Twins Building Off The Mound

[Ted Schwerzler]

One hundred and nineteen games into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins find themselves hovering one game above the .500 mark. Looking back to where they were a year ago at this time, they’ve taken a massive leap forward. Considering how 2017 has gone, Paul Molitor’s club can certainly pat themselves on the back. Pitching has once again been an adventure, but this club has weathered the storm.Through a full season last year, the Twins used 11 different starting pitchers, and they trotted out 29 in total. Both of those numbers have been blitzed in 2017, as the club has set franchise records using both 14 starters and 33 arms in total. While that’s a pretty monumental feat in and of itself, those numbers should only be expected to swell over the final 43 games of the season.

 

A year ago, the Twins' 5.09 team ERA was tied for dead last in all of baseball. Whether looking at starters or the bullpen, the result wasn’t pretty. Realistically, a complete overhaul of the staff wasn’t a one-year project, and the Twins addressed the issues on the bump in an unconventional but interesting way. Jason Castro was brought in as one of the game’s elite gloves behind the dish. Thanks in part to his efforts, as well as those around the diamond, the Twins have written a different story this time around.

 

Realistically, it’s not fair to say the Twins pitching is all that much improved from where they found themselves in 2016. Instead of being dead last in the current campaign, they find themselves checking in at 26th with a 4.78 team ERA. The results have differed however, as a result of the surrounding parts.

 

On defense, Twins fielders have been worth 17 DRS (defensive runs saved), a mark good enough for 10th in the big leagues. A season ago, Minnesota found themselves totaling a -49 effort, coming in 28th among the competition. With the growth of the glove Molitor’s club has put its best foot forward.

 

To date, the hometown nine is one starter shy of having run out three separate starting rotations. Over the course of a season, having to turn to ten starters is seemingly a monumental task, asking to triple the required number is extraordinary. What’s even more mind boggling is that the Twins have traveled this path, and yet remained competitive.

 

It’s fair to note that the AL Central is far from a juggernaut. It’s only been a matter of weeks that the Cleveland Indians started rolling, and the Kansas City Royals have appeared the only other team with a semblance of competitiveness thus far. However, where things stand today, the Twins were expected to be in the rear view and find themselves just 6.0 GB of the division while remaining within one of the wild card.

 

2015 was the last time Minnesota found themselves playing competitive baseball late in the year. That club won 83 games and was in the thick of things until the final weekend. In Molitor’s first year at the helm, Minnesota ran out 24 pitchers, and just nine different starters. When reaching their 60th win though, they had already lost 61 games, and found themselves 13.5 GB of the division-leading Indians.

 

What the Twins have done this season is far from an enviable path. They’ve burned through pitchers at an alarming rate, and the depth of the system has been tested in every way possible. However, thanks to a key acquisition behind the dish, and the emergence of strong play in front of it, Minnesota has remained relevant against all odds. As has been the case for some time now, this organization’s bugaboo remains on the mound. To take the next step forward, pitching needs to become an asset. For where they are however, the sum of all parts must be credited.

 

It’s a near certainty that the Twins will play meaningful and exciting September baseball. Given the pitching records being set, that’s nothing short of a miracle. This club is plenty close to making some real waves, and while we are now seeing their warts, we can’t ignore the strengths either.

 

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[Richie the Rally Goat]

10 starting pitchers for how this club was prepared last year is really tough, however 10 starting pitchers in a season is no "monumental task".

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/163495284-mlb-teams-need-starting-pitching-depth.amp.html

 

In 2015 on average, a ball club trotted out 10.9 starters.

 

From 2012 to 2015 40 teams made the post season. Those 40 teams has on average 39 starts per season by pitchers not in the opening day rotation.

 

 

The Twins aren't breaking new ground. They're getting better quality pitching from the reserves than seasons past, but it's not alarming at all.

 

By the way, the one team in 2015 that used 16 starters; the Dodgers, who were playoff contenders and have built their strength largely on a strong farm club (and huge cash).

[mikelink45]

The Twins defense is the difference - especially Buxton.  Take the difference from -49 runs to +17 runs saved in defense value and add that to the ERA and suddenly we have a staff with a 5.33 ERA (and probably more since we would need more outs to compensate).  

 

Neither the pitching coaches or the catchers have made the difference.  The defense along with a better offense has allowed us to surf the series with mediocre teams to our advantage.

 

Castro and Giminez are not the ones that deserve the credit although I constantly see that.  Give them a little credit, but I am not convinced we would be worse off with Garver behind the plate.  Pre season Fan Graphs had our catching ranked 22nd. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-positional-power-rankings-catcher/

Jason Castro has 1.84 WAR, 1.18 defensive.  Good, but not team changing.

Giminez has negatives on all the ratings and cannot hold up as the second catcher.  

 

As the signature move of the FO I know Castro came in just before the upswing in record, but I think we have to delve further to find the real causes and judge the real value.  In defensive ratings of catchers the best I found for Castro was 16 which is pretty much the place for league average. 

[Linus]

I agree that catching is not the difference. Castro has been OK defensively and Susuki like with the bat. Giminez is awful and should be done.

[ThejacKmp]

Two weeks til Garver! Unless it's today til Garver!

[Tomj14]

Is it safe to start talking about SANO having a somewhat disappointing season?

 

[wsnydes]

 

Is it safe to start talking about SANO having a somewhat disappointing season?

With how he started, I know that I'm disappointed about how it's turned out.  

[Shaitan]

I'd also credit health this year (outside of pitching). Grossman, Buxton, and Mauer are the only regulars I can think of to go on the DL. The latter 2 were basically out for the minimum.

[joeshmoe]

If Sano had played the first six weeks like he has played the last six weeks, he likely would have spent some time in AAA.

Miguel, can you lay off the slider low and away for once?

[Tomj14]

 

I'd also credit health this year (outside of pitching). Grossman, Buxton, and Mauer are the only regulars I can think of to go on the DL. The latter 2 were basically out for the minimum.

Completely agree, to assume we will stay this healthy the next few years is  crazy talk.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The Twins defense is the difference - especially Buxton. Take the difference from -49 runs to +17 runs saved in defense value and add that to the ERA and suddenly we have a staff with a 5.33 ERA (and probably more since we would need more outs to compensate).

 

Neither the pitching coaches or the catchers have made the difference. The defense along with a better offense has allowed us to surf the series with mediocre teams to our advantage.

 

Castro and Giminez are not the ones that deserve the credit although I constantly see that. Give them a little credit, but I am not convinced we would be worse off with Garver behind the plate. Pre season Fan Graphs had our catching ranked 22nd. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-positional-power-rankings-catcher/

Jason Castro has 1.84 WAR, 1.18 defensive. Good, but not team changing.

Giminez has negatives on all the ratings and cannot hold up as the second catcher.

 

As the signature move of the FO I know Castro came in just before the upswing in record, but I think we have to delve further to find the real causes and judge the real value. In defensive ratings of catchers the best I found for Castro was 16 which is pretty much the place for league average.

Defense is big, but 68 runs differential on defense is what, 7 wins Pythag? Where did the other 10 wins come from?

[mikelink45]

 

Defense is big, but 68 runs differential on defense is what, 7 wins Pythag? Where did the other 10 wins come from?

Some where you might have to figure in offense too - this is just defense and this is huge. 

[Thrylos]

Here is comparing 2017 team pitching with 2016:

 

Twins team pitching stats:

2017: 4.89 FIP, 27th; 1.41 WHIP, t23-25; K-BB%: 10.1%, 27th
2016: 4.57 FIP, 27th;  1.45 WHIP, t25-28; K-BB%: 11.3%, 21st

 

If anything, I'd say they have been pretty much the same, if not regressed a bit.

Matter of fact is that the Twins are where they are despite horrible pitching.

 

Differences:

 

1. This season the Front Office is willing to get rid of pitchers and recycle/reuse until someone sticks

2. This season the team seems to win close games (and still getting pelted in some games) while last season it was consistent pelting

3. Of course defense, and that is what drives the ERA diff, not pitching (check at FIP)

 

Regardless.  I do not see how Allen has a job.  Period.  He should be the first one that goes come October (or even hopefully November.)

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Some where you might have to figure in offense too - this is just defense and this is huge. 

indeed, 68 run differential on defense is huge. 4.45 runs per game scored in 2016. 4.63 runs per game in 2017. that's only 28 runs on 162 games, 3 wins.

 

 

[MN_ExPat]

I'm sure by now most folks have seen that Garver (#CallupGarver) has finally been promoted.

[Thrylos]

 

I'm sure by now most folks have seen that Garver (#CallupGarver) has finally been promoted.

 

Can he pitch?

[Jacksson]

NO, Garver can't pitch, but his ability to play C, LF, 1B, DO mean that Gimenez can move to the bullpen full time!

[Rosterman]

It kinda harkens back to 1987 where the team survived with 2 1/2 starters and a bunch of wannabees in the bullpen. 17 pitchers then, 12 made a start at least. Three were regular starters. No one was outstanding in the bullpen, except maybe Senor smoke.

 

The lack of prospects to step in and Twins having to pull together innings from a variety of unlikely sources. Sadly, time will show that few of these guys will pan out more than a season or two in the organization.

 

Be interesting to see how September plays with Twins pitching futures. Sadly, it means jettisoning many of pitching past, and giving an opportunity to some guys who may only be partial season stoppers next year.

 

[mikelink45]

 

indeed, 68 run differential on defense is huge. 4.45 runs per game scored in 2016. 4.63 runs per game in 2017. that's only 28 runs on 162 games, 3 wins.

Must be the manager!

[howieramone2]

 No question we need to pick up a 2/3 starting pitcher this off season. If so, I believe we can go 10 deep with starters who will be acceptable to most on the board. 

 

For all intents and purposes, the rebuild will end with this season. The core of 4, plus Rosario and Polanco with be in year 3, and Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Slegers, and Stewart are well positioned to start as needed. 

 

I would bring back Belisle, and let our cast of thousands fight it out in the pen. We should have option 1, how we use the pen with a lead, set early in the season. Option 2, how we use the pen when we are behind, will be a work in progress, probably till the trade deadline next season.

 

Good time to be a Twin's fan!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Must be the manager!

Pythag run differential according to bbref puts them at 55 wins, which more or less fills the gap. It must be the manager and all that veteranness

[Richie the Rally Goat]

No question we need to pick up a 2/3 starting pitcher this off season. If so, I believe we can go 10 deep with starters who will be acceptable to most on the board.

 

For all intents and purposes, the rebuild will end with this season. The core of 4, plus Rosario and Polanco with be in year 3, and Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Slegers, and Stewart are well positioned to start as needed.

 

I would bring back Belisle, and let our cast of thousands fight it out in the pen. We should have option 1, how we use the pen with a lead, set early in the season. Option 2, how we use the pen when we are behind, will be a work in progress, probably till the trade deadline next season.

 

Good time to be a Twin's fan!

i like your plan but i'd add at least one reliever, maybe 2 thatd pretty much a high end setup man as well.

[drjim]

2 starters, 2 relievers (including a closer) and perhaps a veteran 1b/dh bat and a backup catcher. That would set them up and give them some actual depth.

[USAFChief]

 

2 starters, 2 relievers (including a closer) and perhaps a veteran 1b/dh bat and a backup catcher. That would set them up and give them some actual depth.

Make the 1B/dh bat a RH hitter, please.

 

I'd also settle for a RH hitting 4th OFer if they can't find a 1b/DH.

 

Depending on whether they think Garver can actually catch, they might not need a backup catcher.

[drjim]

Make the 1B/dh bat a RH hitter, please.

 

I'd also settle for a RH hitting 4th OFer if they can't find a 1b/DH.

 

Depending on whether they think Garver can actually catch, they might not need a backup catcher.

Definitely a RH hitter. And could be an OF too.

 

Garver might be the backup catcher, wouldn't be opposed, but they have no depth behind him. I would probably opt for an established backup and Garver start in AAA rather than sign one of the AAAA catchers floating around. But could go either way.

[USAFChief]

 

Definitely a RH hitter. And could be an OF too.

Garver might be the backup catcher, wouldn't be opposed, but they have no depth behind him. I would probably opt for an established backup and Garver start in AAA rather than sign one of the AAAA catchers floating around. But could go either way.

Well, since they'll be spending upwards of $200 mil on the other spots, I'll cut them some slack on the cost of a catcher.

[The Wise One]

 

Can he pitch?

Like Gimmenez? 

[DocBauer]

Scoreboard!

 

Something I heard and had drilled in to me years ago. You can take away positives in a loss, true. And woulda, coulda, shoulda all have meaning when you talk about growth, learning and potential for your team. And this does apply to baseball as well. But it is also a very long season, and is played and constructed a bit different than other sports. Run differential would seem to be a strong indicator as to the winning merits and potential of a team, but are made somewhat meaningless when you examine the length of the season and the day after day construction of said season.

 

A stat given out a few games ago had the Twins something like 28-18 vs all the other AL teams in the WC hunt. And they are above .500 and have been for most of the season. So if you have bad stretches here and there, and get hammered by a team here and there, (see Astros-Houston), whether you win by a single run, or get hammered by 6, it still counts as a single win or lose. Again, run differential can be a viable statistic, but it simply doesn't tell the whole story.

 

Despite some poor numbers, which can't be denied, and some ugly performances, which can't be denied and have been easily witnessed, the proverbial "eye test" would also show that pitching HAS been better for this team, with some very, very bad performances equaling out the statistical data. Simply put, if my team pitches and plays well overall and wins 3 games, but gets the snot beat out of them 2 other games, I'm still 3-2 in a 5 game stretch no matter what the data might report.

 

The pitching simply has been better this season. But there should also be no doubt that the defense is also a major reason why this team has looked and performed so much better this season. Sano at his best and most natural position, Planco's surprising performance as a solid and sometimes good SS, (give him a break-he played well-slumped-and has picked it up again), the solid play of Dozier and excellent play at 1B by Mauer, plus quality defense by Escobar and Adrianza. Overall, the OF defense has been excellent, Grossman showed real improvement over last year, and Granite was solid. Don't want to give Castro and Giminez credit? I get it. Should Garver probably replace Giminez soon? I absolutely believe that. But compared to Suzuki and Centeno? No question we are better behind the dish as well.

[DocBauer]

2 starters, 2 relievers (including a closer) and perhaps a veteran 1b/dh bat and a backup catcher. That would set them up and give them some actual depth.

I recognize your points Jim, but will respectfully disagree with you, somewhat.

 

I'm not sure this team needs to sign 2 RP. I believe they should absolutely sign one proven, high quality arm here. Either a closer, a former closer coming off a rough season, or a top set up man ready for his opportunity. Second to that, honestly, my biggest concern is a second LH option to pair with Rogers. Could Perkins actually have enough left in the tank to help? (On a make good deal of course). Could Turley take his FB and curve and make something of himself over the next month and a half? Could Melotakis regain velocity? Could Jay actually come back strong? From the RH side, I'm very encouraged by Hildenberger, Busentiz as well as Duffey, (Despite his mid year slump he seems to be coming out of), and the strong arm of Pressly, (who has been much better as of late despite one bad outing), along with the potential of Reed, Curtiss and Bard. Sooner or later, at least one of the injured arms has to right themselves as well.

 

This team absolutely has to sign or trade for one more quality SP. (I prefer FA to keep the milb system in tact for development, promotion and future trades), but do they really need 2? Said FA, Santana and Berrios should be a nice start, no pun intended. I am impressed with what I see in Mejia, though some rookie vs experience development is still taking place. The 5th spot could go to May, or Gonsalves, or Slegers, or Romero, or Jorge. It seems Melville is going to get a shot and could be a surprise. (We shall see). And what about Colon?

 

A lot of jokes are made about Colon due to his age and physical stature, but the truth is he pitched very well his first couple of starts for the Twins before running in to trouble after 4 and 5 IP. Stretched out, he pitched quite well to very well sans his last start. He also brings vast experience and a great locker room presence to the team. The FO has already talked about maybe brining him back. And while he could fall of a cliff at any time, he's coming off 4 consecutive quality season's, before the start of this one. If he can keep up what he's been doing lately, would it be so silly to bring him back for 2018? And for depth, as well as future replacement we still have all the aforementioned young arms.

 

I think backup catcher will be Garver. But via trade, rule 5, FA, I would do all I could to find the best AAA and AAAA catchers I could find.

 

Absolutely agree on a legitimate 1B/DH bat. Someone who could split time at DH and substitute for Mauer. Improves the lineup and deepens the bench, though it may mark the end of Grossman, who I like as a useful reserve. (Assuming Granite becomes the true 4th OF).